The US Election Polling / Data Thread

[troutman]

Sanders was +10% on Trump in May/June:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ders-5565.html

Biden vs. Trump, one year ago:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...iden-5568.html

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Buster

Is anyone doing any polling on whether or not a Biden replacement would do better?

Harambe beats both Hillary and Trump straight up in polls. Deez Nutz on the other hand I'm not too sure.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Slate and a new company called Votecastr are going to do live election-day real-time projections, based on voter turnout in swing states. That's going to make for a fun day of number-watching.

Which of course begs the question: does this type of reporting alter the results?

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Which of course begs the question: does this type of reporting alter the results?

It also begs the question of how accurate it will be. Every election someone leaks an exit poll or internal party turnout data (this happened in both 2004 and 2008 that I can recall) and in those cases that data turned out to lead to an incorrect conclusion.

It is an interesting development, for sure.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Slate and a new company called Votecastr are going to do live election-day real-time projections, based on voter turnout in swing states. That's going to make for a fun day of number-watching.

There was an interesting freakanomics podcast that had Karl Rove on talking about fixes to democracy. He said that in 2000 when the media called Florida for Gore it suppressed turnout for the rest of the election and hurt Bush's numbers in states with open polls At that time.

So there is risk in manipulating the outcome of the election based on falsely reporting or incorrectly reporting exit poll data. I don't like it from a democratic stand point

[Senator Clay Davis]

If I remember right Emerson only does landline polling. So Trump only +6 in Texas might be another sign it's a lot closer than it should be. I still don't see Hillary putting any meaningful resources in the state, and it's probably not really in play, but Trump may be accelerating Texas inevitable fall into a purple state.

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_01dc...f92d62cf50.pdf

[the_only_turek_fan]

Bloomberg has DJT 5 points ahead or HRC in both a 2 way and 4 way race.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

[Senator Clay Davis]

^Ohio only.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by the_only_turek_fan

Bloomberg has DJT 5 points ahead or HRC in both a 2 way and 4 way race.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

In Ohio. Ohio looks pretty hard to read but definitely seems the most likely Trump swing-state pick up. Also worth mentioning that Selzer, the firm that did this one, have an A+ rating from 538.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

If I remember right Emerson only does landline polling. So Trump only +6 in Texas might be another sign it's a lot closer than it should be. I still don't see Hillary putting any meaningful resources in the state, and it's probably not really in play, but Trump may be accelerating Texas inevitable fall into a purple state.

http://media.wix.com/ugd/3bebb2_01dc...f92d62cf50.pdf

Anti-immigration rhetoric and policies are a surefire way to eventually lose all the border states to democrats.

[the_only_turek_fan]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

^Ohio only.

Yes I should have added that. Sorry!

[the_only_turek_fan]

If this were Obama vs Trump right now, we could have had a possible 1984 or 1972 landslide on our hands.

[Flash Walken]

If this was Romney Vs. Hillary it's probably edge Romney.

[Senator Clay Davis]

CNN/ORC: Trump +3 Florida, +5 Ohio.

[peter12]

Well, I will leave it to people smarter than I, but this is a momentum shift, as far as I can tell.

Clinton has one more truth-y flop in her, I think. Meanwhile, Trump is still going full teflon.

[troutman]

If not one black person, latino, and very few women are voting for Trump, how do we explain these poll results?

[Senator Clay Davis]

Because if the CNN polls are to be believed, Trump has effectively erased the women gap and is basically tied in Ohio and only slightly behind in Florida. Still getting killed with minorities, but his "minority outreach", which was always designed to target suburbanite women, pretty much worked.

[the_only_turek_fan]

Rasmussen has Trump up by 2, and the NYT/CBS has it tied.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

I don't recall this many polls that had Romney tied or ahead of Obama 4 years ago.

IIRC, Romney was always down 2-4 points or tied at best in most polls.

[the_only_turek_fan]

And more importantly.............Portman, Rubio, Ayotte, McCain, and Toomey seem to be up.

Ayotte was down double digits a few weeks ago.

[the_only_turek_fan]

Not sure why Toomey didn't run for POTUS. Seems like a voice of reason. Moderate on guns, etc..