Who should the Flames pick at 6th overall?

[Trailer Fire]

I want absolutely no part of Nylander. The few Steelheads games I saw I was left expecting more. He was often weak on the puck. He shied away from board battles. He was a bit floaty on the backcheck. Even if that isn't the game he usually plays, I don't want a guy who doesn't commit 100% of the time he is on the ice.

Jost, Brown, Sergachev, Juolevi, and Keller are my 5, in that order. I swear I will go full Ricardodw vs Hamilton on Alex if he is drafted by the Flames. I'd rather trade our 1st for Murray.

[Chingas]

Originally Posted by Trailer Fire

I want absolutely no part of Nylander. The few Steelheads games I saw I was left expecting more. He was often weak on the puck. He shied away from board battles. He was a bit floaty on the backcheck. Even if that isn't the game he usually plays, I don't want a guy who doesn't commit 100% of the time he is on the ice.

Jost, Brown, Sergachev, Juolevi, and Keller are my 5, in that order. I swear I will go full Ricardodw vs Hamilton on Alex if he is drafted by the Flames. I'd rather trade our 1st for Murray.

There is a danger with small sample sizes. When Getzlaf was on the Hitmen i watched a couple of games. I thought he was the laziest cherry picking floater that i had seen in years. I could not get the hype for him at all. he looked entitled and had next to zero drive in those games. We all know how my assessment from that turned out.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Chingas

There is a danger with small sample sizes. When Getzlaf was on the Hitmen i watched a couple of games. I thought he was the laziest cherry picking floater that i had seen in years. I could not get the hype for him at all. he looked entitled and had next to zero drive in those games. We all know how my assessment from that turned out.

There's no problem with making a snap judgement based on limited viewings but teams have scouts that see these kids play a lot because a one or two game snapshot will not tell you enough as you could watch Monahan and Gaudreau on any given night of the 82 game schedule and come away not impressed if they are having one of those games where it's just not their night.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Originally Posted by Trailer Fire

I want absolutely no part of Nylander. The few Steelheads games I saw I was left expecting more. He was often weak on the puck. He shied away from board battles. He was a bit floaty on the backcheck. Even if that isn't the game he usually plays, I don't want a guy who doesn't commit 100% of the time he is on the ice.

Jost, Brown, Sergachev, Juolevi, and Keller are my 5, in that order. I swear I will go full Ricardodw vs Hamilton on Alex if he is drafted by the Flames. I'd rather trade our 1st for Murray.

I am somewhat of the same mind with regards to Nylander, but maybe not quite that far

I like prospects that have a non-stop motor - which is why I really love Jost. I love prospects that are both physical and possess a high degree of skill. That is what I 'expect' from near the top of the draft anyways.

Nylander is definitely skilled, but is he more skilled than Jost or even Keller? I don't want Keller, but I would pick Keller over Nylander as I think his skill level is higher, and so is his compete.

There are a few different ways for the Flames to become 'harder to play against'. I do think that adding Nylander does make them harder to play against - another legitimate scoring threat is always welcome. However, big physical guys with skill, or skill guys with non-stop motors and high compete levels rank higher in my mind. I like Jost a lot because he isn't undersized, has a non-stop motor, great speed, good playmaking and a good shot.

I question Nylander's compete level when he finishes the season with around 5 goals in the last 24 games - if I heard that correctly (anyone confirm?). He did increase his goal output in the playoffs - and that is actually important - but there are a handful of forwards I would rather the Flames pick after Dubois/Tkachuk come off the board, and I think I would rather have any of the top 3 or 4 defencemen over Nylander too. I think Nylander fell out of my own top 10.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

I am somewhat of the same mind with regards to Nylander, but maybe not quite that far

I like prospects that have a non-stop motor - which is why I really love Jost. I love prospects that are both physical and possess a high degree of skill. That is what I 'expect' from near the top of the draft anyways.

Nylander is definitely skilled, but is he more skilled than Jost or even Keller? I don't want Keller, but I would pick Keller over Nylander as I think his skill level is higher, and so is his compete.

There are a few different ways for the Flames to become 'harder to play against'. I do think that adding Nylander does make them harder to play against - another legitimate scoring threat is always welcome. However, big physical guys with skill, or skill guys with non-stop motors and high compete levels rank higher in my mind. I like Jost a lot because he isn't undersized, has a non-stop motor, great speed, good playmaking and a good shot.

I question Nylander's compete level when he finishes the season with around 5 goals in the last 24 games - if I heard that correctly (anyone confirm?). He did increase his goal output in the playoffs - and that is actually important - but there are a handful of forwards I would rather the Flames pick after Dubois/Tkachuk come off the board, and I think I would rather have any of the top 3 or 4 defencemen over Nylander too. I think Nylander fell out of my own top 10.

Odd, Nylander's skillset is as highly regarded as the Finns in some circles. It's his size that separates them.

As for his points winding down to the end of the season is perhaps a result of the team resting their core guys because in the playoffs, 6 gp, 6g,6a 12 pts. Then in the U-18's: 7gp, 3g 8a 11 pts.

I too am suspect of some soft play I witnessed but not enough to lose it if the Flames take him. The guy has an amazing skillset. Not sure how one can come up with the idea Jost or Keller are more skilled.

EDIT: I am also very suspect of guys who got a big time bump because of the U-18's and folks relying that tournament as the be all end all of a players final ranking. It's odd that one tournaments performance undoes an entire body of work in a season.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Not sure how one can come up with the idea... Keller ... more skilled [than Nylander].

I can't comment on the subjective part of this became "more" or "less" skilled are in the eye of the beholder (though I love Alex' one-timer), but Keller's statistical peers are Jack Eichel, Auston Matthews, Patrick Kane, and Phil Kessel. Nylander's absolute best statistical peers are Matt Duchene, Mike Richards, and Logan Couture, but his peers also include Stefan Noesen, and Cody Hodgson, Josh Ho-Sang.

It's safe to say Keller's draft year body of work is more historically impressive. More indicative of a future star than just a pretty skilled guy.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Odd, Nylander's skillset is as highly regarded as the Finns in some circles. It's his size that separates them.

As for his points winding down to the end of the season is perhaps a result of the team resting their core guys because in the playoffs, 6 gp, 6g,6a 12 pts. Then in the U-18's: 7gp, 3g 8a 11 pts.

I too am suspect of some soft play I witnessed but not enough to lose it if the Flames take him. The guy has an amazing skillset. Not sure how one can come up with the idea Jost or Keller are more skilled.

EDIT: I am also very suspect of guys who got a big time bump because of the U-18's and folks relying that tournament as the be all end all of a players final ranking. It's odd that one tournaments performance undoes an entire body of work in a season.

there has been talk by some scouts that the U18s were actually a little disappointing this year as the overall talent level wasn't quite at the same level as in past years... Take it FWIW...

the issue with Nylander certainly isn't skill level... its battle...and unlike size or skill, i think battle can come around...

[Fighting Banana Slug]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Odd, Nylander's skillset is as highly regarded as the Finns in some circles. It's his size that separates them.

As for his points winding down to the end of the season is perhaps a result of the team resting their core guys because in the playoffs, 6 gp, 6g,6a 12 pts. Then in the U-18's: 7gp, 3g 8a 11 pts.

I too am suspect of some soft play I witnessed but not enough to lose it if the Flames take him. The guy has an amazing skillset. Not sure how one can come up with the idea Jost or Keller are more skilled.

EDIT: I am also very suspect of guys who got a big time bump because of the U-18's and folks relying that tournament as the be all end all of a players final ranking. It's odd that one tournaments performance undoes an entire body of work in a season.

Agree with the Edit, in particular. I for one hadn't seen much of the prospects, so I am probably guilty of overvaluing the U-18 tournament. Having said that, I do think a guy like Jost should receive a bump, as it seems to me his earlier, lower ranking might have something to do with the difficulty of assessing a guy in a lower rank league. Small sample, sure, but he looked great in the U-18.

[bax]

Originally Posted by Trailer Fire

I want absolutely no part of Nylander. The few Steelheads games I saw I was left expecting more. He was often weak on the puck. He shied away from board battles. He was a bit floaty on the backcheck. Even if that isn't the game he usually plays, I don't want a guy who doesn't commit 100% of the time he is on the ice.

Jost, Brown, Sergachev, Juolevi, and Keller are my 5, in that order. I swear I will go full Ricardodw vs Hamilton on Alex if he is drafted by the Flames. I'd rather trade our 1st for Murray.

You make it sound like trading the first for Murray is a bad thing. I think it's highly unlikely, but it's the best possible outcome for that draft pick imo

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Fighting Banana Slug

Agree with the Edit, in particular. I for one hadn't seen much of the prospects, so I am probably guilty of overvaluing the U-18 tournament. Having said that, I do think a guy like Jost should receive a bump, as it seems to me his earlier, lower ranking might have something to do with the difficulty of assessing a guy in a lower rank league. Small sample, sure, but he looked great in the U-18.

Oh no doubt about Josts bump. I came away impressed from the viewings there but I also do not think ilthe questions of quality of competition were relieved. But if you break McDavids scores ng record in any tournament, you're forced to take notice and reassess.

[SuperMatt18]

The McDavid scoring record thing is a bit overstated though - McDavid was 16 when he set that record.

[Trailer Fire]

Originally Posted by Chingas

There is a danger with small sample sizes. When Getzlaf was on the Hitmen i watched a couple of games. I thought he was the laziest cherry picking floater that i had seen in years. I could not get the hype for him at all. he looked entitled and had next to zero drive in those games. We all know how my assessment from that turned out.

I understand that there are exceptions to the rule, but I don't think we are in a place to gamble that Nylander is the exception when we draft 6th overall. Getzlaf went 19th in arguably the deepest draft of all time.

My gut has lead me astray before. I really thought that Brock Beukaboom was going to be the best D-man out of the 2010 draft. Yowza.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

The McDavid scoring record thing is a bit overstated though - McDavid was 16 when he set that record.

Do you know what the previous record was and how old the player was who held it? Maybe a better comp for Jost was the previous holder

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Do you know what the previous record was and how old the player was who held it? Maybe a better comp for Jost was the previous holder

These are the best individual tourney's ever - so helps provide a little context.

http://www.eliteprospects.com/league...season=alltime

Still impressive - and is in a pretty good group of company - but think the direct comparison to McDavid is tough just considering how young McDavid was when he put up those numbers.

[dammage79]

Also of note, I wasn't directly comparing Jost to McDavid. Just the idea that he broke the (what I now see after looking at that list) Canadian scoring record is noteworthy and rightfully should give people pause to reassess.

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

I can't comment on the subjective part of this became "more" or "less" skilled are in the eye of the beholder (though I love Alex' one-timer), but Keller's statistical peers are Jack Eichel, Auston Matthews, Patrick Kane, and Phil Kessel. Nylander's absolute best statistical peers are Matt Duchene, Mike Richards, and Logan Couture, but his peers also include Stefan Noesen, and Cody Hodgson, Josh Ho-Sang.

It's safe to say Keller's draft year body of work is more historically impressive. More indicative of a future star than just a pretty skilled guy.

How would Keller compare to Gaudreau?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by edslunch

How would Keller compare to Gaudreau?

He's slightly bigger

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by edslunch

How would Keller compare to Gaudreau?

Gaudreau played USHL. Keller played USNTDP. While USNTDP plays some games against USHL, their stats can't be compared 1:1 because they're an all-star team playing against ordinary teams. But comparing within USNTDP you get a good sense of how significant Keller's season is.

However this is waht I posted the other day about Keller's performances vs different leagues:

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

What we do know though, is Keller as a 17 year old had:

37 points in 23 USHL games to lead his team (17 year old Eichel had 45 in 24, Matthews had 48 in 24, Tkachuk had 33 in 24 but played with Matthews, Larkin had 26 in 26)

11 points in 6 games vs NCAA Tournament teams (18 year old Kyle Connor had 6 in 5GP, 22 year old Jimmy Vesey had 9 in 11GP)

10 points in 6 games vs other NCAA Div 1 teams (18 year old Kyle Connor had 65 in 33)

14 points in 7 U18-WC games (his teammate Logan Brown had 13 in 9)

107 points in 62 USNTDP games (only Auston Matthews in the program's history has put up more, that even includes Patrick Kane and Jack Eichel)

It's really easy to see that he's going to be dominant player in NCAA next year, and NCAA is a great place for a smaller guy like him to develop against grown men. Aside from Matthews he might be the most skilled offensive guy in the draft.

http://www.pensionplanpuppets.com/20...o-be-in-fourth

I do think comparing USNDTP vs Div 1 NCAA teams 1:1 with Div 1 NCAA players is fine, because you're ultimatley comparing a team of 17 year olds to players on teams of 18-24 year olds. USNTDP players are the ones at the disadvantage.

I wouldn't be shocked if Keller is a Gaudreau calibre talent, arguably more upside as he's bigger, fiestier, and a natural two-way center.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Trailer Fire

I want absolutely no part of Nylander. The few Steelheads games I saw I was left expecting more. He was often weak on the puck. He shied away from board battles. He was a bit floaty on the backcheck. Even if that isn't the game he usually plays, I don't want a guy who doesn't commit 100% of the time he is on the ice.

Jost, Brown, Sergachev, Juolevi, and Keller are my 5, in that order. I swear I will go full Ricardodw vs Hamilton on Alex if he is drafted by the Flames. I'd rather trade our 1st for Murray.

I have the same concerns on Nylander. However I think the Flames highly value compete, desire, consistency, willingness to go to the hard areas. If they take him at #6 then I'm confident those aren't a concern. However if those are a concern then it's likely he's not top 8-10 for the Flames. I know Burke has talked to OHL coaches about him and I'm sure the scouts have as well. They do their homework so I'm not worried there. I highly, highly doubt they would take a forward they perceive as "soft" so if we take him then I don't think its a concern. But because there's a chance they do perceive him as a bit soft I think its far from a slam-dunk he'd be our pick #6 if Tkachuk/Dubois are gone.

I'm not as down on the defensemen crop as some are. Despite our depth in that area I think the Flames look at their system and see a lack of potential top pairing guys coming up. We have a lot of great prospects who probably project to be in the 3-5 range but no #1's or #2's coming up. Benning has said there's at least a couple d-men that project as good #2's.

Here's Button on the d-men this draft (FFWD to 7 mins or so)
https://soundcloud.com/tsn-radio-van...ch-like-linden

He describes this crop of d-men as types like Vlasic, Carlsson, McDonaugh, Bouwmeester. Interesting that he uses Bouwmeester as a comparable for Chychrun (due to skating and offensive ceiling) although obviously Chychrun is stronger and more physical. Button wouldn't be surprised if Chychrun went top 5. I could see the Flames being interested in drafting a d-man like some of those guys.

[AC]

Yeah I agree FDW. If the Flames draft Nylander it means they've done the research and don't feel there's truth to concerns over his work ethic, or compete, or whatever.

Same as when we picked Kylington despite a few question marks regarding his attitude. Flames said they looked into Kylington as a person more than any other prospect and felt there was no truth to it.