Calgary Centre Federal By-election - Nov 26 (UPDATE - Crockatt wins for CPC)

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Those are good numbers for Crockatt. Terrible for Turner. As for Locke, they indicate a ceiling of around 30%, which isn't good news.

There is considerable daylight between Turner and Locke now, which will possibly clarify things for some voters.

[Shawnski]

Originally Posted by Slava

Shawnski posted his bait, I stupidly took it and he hasn't posted since.

Bait? LOL. Factual story. Video evidence.

I don't revolve my world around CP. I pitty you if you do though.

[SebC]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

It looks like a poll is about to be released. Different company than Forum Research. (surveyed 400 people and MOE is 4.8%)

"@waltondawn New #yyccentre poll by Return on Insight puts Tories at 37%, Lib 32%, Green 17% & NDP 12%."

Found it:

http://return-on-insight.com/2012/11...ng-intentions/

[Slava]

The Green supporters online are not happy with that poll. They suggest that the pollster works for the Locke campaign, which Bruce Cameron (pollster) denies. Interesting to see the 1CC founder in on this as well, and making some comments on twitter not really about the poll methodologies or anything like that.

I think the Turner supporters recognize how crippling this could be to their campaign at this point, because of that huge undecided number that seems to be out there.

Oh, and Tinordi: The MOE is too high. That said, how come even with the small sample sizes and high margins of error we never see Turner ahead of Locke nevermind Crockatt?

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by SebC

Found it:

http://return-on-insight.com/2012/11...ng-intentions/

Interesting breakdowns. 16% are undecided in this poll and 12% won't vote in the election.

32% of all voters are still uncertain or not very certain of who they'll support.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Slava

Interesting to see the 1CC founder in on this as well, and making some comments on twitter not really about the poll methodologies or anything like that.

Yeah, watching pollsters fight online is quite entertaining. Didn't think this industry was like that.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

Yeah, watching pollsters fight online is quite entertaining. Didn't think this industry was like that.

Its funny because they're basically fighting over who is more objective I guess? Sadly though, you have to wonder about the objectivity of 1CC when one of them is working so hard to discredit this poll, when the pollster says its independent. I have no idea whether Cameron was hired by Locke. He says he wasn't and that's good enough for me until something comes out to the contrary.

The one thing I will say is that campaigns all do polling. They might want to make sure that certain polls are released and others not for obvious reasons, but I've never seen a campaign make-up data or anything like that. In other words, does it even matter if the poll is commissioned by a campaign from a methodological viewpoint?

[edslunch]

Originally Posted by SebC

The thing is, repairing the relationship between Albertans and the Liberal party would be accelerated if Albertans were to extend an olive branch to the party. Electing Locke does that, electing Turner doesn't.

The election of a Liberal would also present a vastly greater threat to the Conservatives than electing a Green. And I think we do want to threaten them, so that they don't just treat us as an obedient cash cow (expressed by cancelling our rec centre funding, for example).

Harper viscerally hates the Liberals. He wants to destroy them, burn their villages, slaughter their oxen and salt the very fields they sow. Electing a Liberal would get his attention alright. Think shadow candidate, air war, etc. I don't know if he would outright try to buy us back but there sure as heck will be a full court press next election. All the while maintaining a smug what me worry demeanour about it.

Please Calgary, lets do this.

[edslunch]

Nothing good in the ROI poll for Turner. Apart from loyal Greens there's no demographic he can claim. The "only land line" argument falls flat if he isn't polling well with the younger age ranges.

[SeoulFire]

Originally Posted by Slava

If I had a dime for every time a conservative MP made a stupid statement I'd have more money than Warren Buffett. I could start with Rob Anders, but figure I might as well keep it with Harper himself:

"Canada appears to be content to become a second-tier socialistic country, boasting...to mask its second rate status"

Stephen Harper, Dec 8, 2000

(Probably within the timeframe for breaking news on the Sun News Network!)

Disregarding everything else in this thread, I cannot see where or why this statement is erroneous.

[Bunk]

Seen lots of people discredit Cameron ROI poll because of this supposed association with Locke and how wrong he was about the 2010 Mayoral race with Nenshi at only 16% with only days to go.

In fact this was the history of Mayoral polls in 2010:

September 19: Leger
McIver 43%
Higgins 28%
Nenshi 8%
everyone else less than 3%

October 5th: ROI (Bruce Cameron)
McIver 31%.
Higgins 28%
Nenshi 16%
17% undecided.

October 11th: Ipsos Ried
Higgins - 37%
McIver - 34%
Nenshi - 21%
19% undecided

October 14: Leger
McIver - 33.3%
Nenshi - 30.1%
Higgins - 29.6%
All amongst decided voters

October 18: Election
Nenshi - 39.6%
McIver - 31.7%
Higgins - 25.8%


It's not accurate to say Cameron's mayoral polls were false and therefore these ones must be too. On October 5th, Higgins and McIver were a statistical tie, with Nenshi more than 10 points back. However, the poll did fall right in line with the Nenshi trend from 3%-8%-16%-21%-30%-39% all within a short time span. Whether he worked for Higgins or not, his poll showed the early trend, so one can't simply assume because of some supposed association with Locke his poll isn't valid.

Hey, I love Turner too, but I think it's time to be realistic. The poll Evan Solomon quoted on Power and Politics (even though the source is uknown) shows a similar split. This is not the 2010 mayoral race.

I would like to see one more poll though - you never know.

[mariners_fever]

Originally Posted by Bunk

Seen lots of people discredit Cameron ROI poll because of this supposed association with Locke and how wrong he was about the 2010 Mayoral race with Nenshi at only 16% with only days to go.

In fact this was the history of Mayoral polls in 2010:

September 19: Leger
McIver 43%
Higgins 28%
Nenshi 8%
everyone else less than 3%

October 5th: ROI (Bruce Cameron)
McIver 31%.
Higgins 28%
Nenshi 16%
17% undecided.

October 11th: Ipsos Ried
Higgins - 37%
McIver - 34%
Nenshi - 21%
19% undecided

October 14: Leger
McIver - 33.3%
Nenshi - 30.1%
Higgins - 29.6%
All amongst decided voters

October 18: Election
Nenshi - 39.6%
McIver - 31.7%
Higgins - 25.8%


It's not accurate to say Cameron's mayoral polls were false and therefore these ones must be too. On October 5th, Higgins and McIver were a statistical tie, with Nenshi more than 10 points back. However, the poll did fall right in line with the Nenshi trend from 3%-8%-16%-21%-30%-39% all within a short time span. Whether he worked for Higgins or not, his poll showed the early trend, so one can't simply assume because of some supposed association with Locke his poll isn't valid.

Hey, I love Turner too, but I think it's time to be realistic. The poll Evan Solomon quoted on Power and Politics (even though the source is uknown) shows a similar split. This is not the 2010 mayoral race.

I would like to see one more poll though - you never know.

I think it could easily be argued that the poll you've bolded matches Nenshi's upward trend and falls in line with how the last two weeks unfolded.

[Bunk]

I forgot how fast it all happened in that race. At the time the last several weeks felt like an eternity - so much happened. What a meteoric rise - incredible.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by mariners_fever

I think it could easily be argued that the poll you've bolded matches Nenshi's upward trend and falls in line with how the last two weeks unfolded.

Agreed--it's not at all out of the realm of possibility that Nenshi was well behind had the election been held Oct. 5th.

Similarly, the trend right now is that Turner has plateaued. We've now seen three polls showing similar results, and this one appears to have him receding slightly.

Honestly there is only one person who got good news in that poll: Joan Crockatt. Both Locke and Turner appear to have hit a ceiling, and she is holding relatively steady. 37% should be more than enough to win barring a last-minute surge of strategic voting among current Turner supporters.

There are only a few days left. Locke commented on his facebook page that he's "within the Margin of Error," but that is a pretty optimistic take on that poll, since he's down by 5 and the MOE is 4.8%.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Of course, one factor that is hard to measure is GOTV--since Canadian pollsters don't screen for "likely voters" we are left guessing as to who is likeliest to get out to the polls.

Traditionally, conservative voters are probably more dependable in this city--my guess (without seeing actual evidence) is that they would tend to be older, more affluent and generally more likely to vote without being called and reminded.

In that context, it is significant that Turner supporters seem generally a bit more engaged, and my sense is he has a pretty solid organization going. But while a solid GOTV effort could possibly do the trick for Locke at this point, it won't make up the double-digit deficit Turner faces against Crockatt. I have no idea what Locke's ground game is like--or Crockatt's for that matter, though my sense is that the Tories are usually pretty organized.

[Flamenspiel]

Lets just read this quote from Trudeau again.....it speaks for itself:

"Canada isn't doing well right now because it's Albertans who control our community and socio-democratic agenda. It doesn't work," Trudeau said in French to interviewer Patrick Lagace on the Tele-Quebec program Les francs-tireurs (The Straight Shooters).

Lagace then asked Trudeau if he thought Canada was "better served when there are more Quebecers in charge than Albertans?"
Trudeau replied: "I'm a Liberal, so of course I think so, yes. Certainly when we look at the great prime ministers of the 20th century, those that really stood the test of time, they were MPs from Quebec... This country - Canada - it belongs to us."

[longsuffering]

Originally Posted by Shawnski

Wow, powerfully worded IFF. Sure glad that his actual words, on film, persuaded you to rally against it considering your absense of similar resolve for those posting decades long insinuations about Ron Paul and newletters penned in his name while he was back in the private sector working as a doctor. Forget for the time being that Dr. Paul has repeatedly publically denounced the few items, he is still a villain.

But Trudeau? Heck, it was only two years ago... and it WAS his own words.

Hypocrite.

Jeezus! Talk about butt hurt. Why do you have to bring your Ron Paul hero worship nonsense into a discussion about a Canadian by-election?

Real quality post here Shawnski. Combined driveby/ad hominin attack.

Congratulations!

[The Goon]

I'm reading the past couple of days in this thread, and I think that many of the posters are brushing off too lightly the comments made by McGuinty as well as the old comments by J. Trudeau.

It's obvious the CPC has been keeping the Trudeau footage stored behind an "In Case of Emergency - Break Here" glass. Maybe it was in the event he became leader of the federal Liberals, but this by-election is as good a reason as any.

And I think it's going to work. The casual voter who doesn't spend time online debating points will see these comments in the media, and say, "I'm sticking with what I know." Those people who were on the fence will swing back towards Crockatt. And I'm confident she's going to win on Monday.

Personal bias - I hope I'm wrong. I'd like to see a change in Calgary Centre mainly because I don't think she's a good candidate. And seeing some change would give me hope that we can one day get rid of our bozo in Calgary West.

[SebC]

554 people participated in the 1CalgaryCentre selection vote.

[Table 5]

Has there been a decision made by 1CC for who to vote for?