Official (Alberta) Oil Discussion Thread

[nik-]

Originally Posted by Azure

Is there a reason it takes that long to start?

It's a major project

[Azure]

Originally Posted by nik-

It's a major project

But hasn't all the engineering and planning already been done?

[Fuzz]

You still need to order the pipe(and pumping station equipment), have it manufactured and delivered, put out bids to contractors, possibly negotiate land access etc. I'm sure they learned from KXL and all their wasted pipe not to put the cart before the government horse.

[puckedoff]

Originally Posted by Azure

But hasn't all the engineering and planning already been done?

To not overplan a pipeline is to underpin your plan. - Sun Tzu

[_Q_]

The way I see it is if these two pipelines do not get built by the next election, it'll be a political disaster for the Liberals. On one hand you'll have the conservatives using the drawn out process and lack of tangible results as ammunition. On the other hand, the mere approval of these pipelines will be a major policy issue for the NDP.

Because of that, I think Trudeau is all in on these projects.

[burn_this_city]

Hard to say whether detailed engineering has been completed for TM.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

You still need to order the pipe(and pumping station equipment), have it manufactured and delivered, put out bids to contractors, possibly negotiate land access etc. I'm sure they learned from KXL and all their wasted pipe not to put the cart before the government horse.

Plus the project was in limbo for so long that I doubt the contractors and phases have been lined up. It's going to take a lot just to synchronize.

The Green Party has been blowing up my email the last couple of days over this. I really wish that they would realize that there are 3 pillars of sustainability that need to be applied. That used to be their goal, but now they can't see past the first one (which is practice should be the third one).

[Bootsy]

I know the mainstream media likes to make it look like its a BC against AB decision, by giving the the anti-pipeline side way more coverage. But if you look at the polls its more of a Greater Vancouver /Victoria area against the rest of Western Canada.
More British Colombians think TransMountain was a good decision than a bad one.

http://angusreid.org/transmountain-pipeline/

[Bootsy]

Double post

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Iggy City

Haha no you misunderstand, my comment was sarcasm to those saying that this approval means nothing.

(I work in the pipeline industry)

You need to change your name. Too easy to confuse you with Iggy_oi.

[burn_this_city]

There's a quiet majority in Vancouver that realize there are reasonable compromises to be made. Gregor and the Vision gang can't see past the end of their own noses.

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by stampsx2

Ya sorry, i don't give a whole lot of credit to Notley for getting the pipeline approved. I agree it would of got done even with the conservatives or wildrose in power. I'll give Trudeau credit. He probably figured out getting re elected wasn't going to be likely with canada's economy tanking.

Originally Posted by rubecube

Can't believe I'm actually about to agree with you on something. Whether anyone likes their policies or not, the Liberals have delivered an absolute masterpiece in playing politics over the past year and a half.

Can't believe I'm about to disagree with stampsx2 and agree with rube on this topic...but I give Notley and Trudeau credit here. Personally I would have preferred Notley take the "give me a pipeline and I'll give you a carbon cap/tax" approach instead of the opposite, but it appears her move may very well have given Trudeau the ammo/justification he needed to burn some political capital and give his approval.

Originally Posted by Fuzz

http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/cabi...872931?cmp=rss
Interesting, so TC isn't all that interested in EE if KXL gets the go ahead. Which seams like a bit of a loss for Canada as a whole as I would imagine we could get more value selling it ourselves. Buuuut Quebec is gonna Quebec.

The general consensus in industry has always been that we needed 2 of 3 (KXL, EE, NGW) to clear the Alberta market. I suppose TMX makes it 2 of 4. And if the 100MT/yr cap on CO2 from the oil sands holds we probably will never need a third without some serious oil sands CO2/bbl reduction technologies.

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Not sure if all other milestones have been met, but they received their approval in December as planned, so construction could start in September.

[burn_this_city]

If propane stays cheap here in Alberta, solvent injection will allow significant expansion without exceeding the emissions cap.

[Reaper]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

There's a quiet majority in Vancouver that realize there are reasonable compromises to be made. Gregor and the Vision gang can't see past the end of their own noses.

So many people are backing out of debate conversations regarding oil because, while they have concerns about pipelines and the environment, they shrink to avoid the boorishness, obnoxiousness, and unwillingness to compromise of the EnviroextremistsTM who are, quite frankly, embarrassing to witness.

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Timeline

Enbridge filed the Line 3 Replacement Program (L3RP) regulatory application with the National Energy Board (NEB) on November 6, 2014. Depending upon the timing of regulatory approvals, the replacement pipeline could be in service in early 2019.

On April 25, 2016, the NEB concluded that Enbridge's Line 3 Replacement Program (Project) is in the Canadian public interest and recommended Project approval to the federal Governor in Council.

The Canadian federal government announced its approval of the Line 3 Replacement Program (Project) on Nov. 29, 2016. The anticipated in-service date for this Project is 2019, pending U.S. regulatory approvals.

From the Line 3 website.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

The general consensus in industry has always been that we needed 2 of 3 (KXL, EE, NGW) to clear the Alberta market. I suppose TMX makes it 2 of 4. And if the 100MT/yr cap on CO2 from the oil sands holds we probably will never need a third without some serious oil sands CO2/bbl reduction technologies.

Good graph on that here:
https://twitter.com/trevortombe/stat...41757431107584
Looks like around 2025 for KXL

[Leeman4Gilmour]

If OPEC does stick to their deal and cut production by 1.2 mbpd, then we will flip from a supply surplus to a supply deficit and start chipping away at inventories;

November 8th data

Definitely a double meat day.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

You still need to order the pipe(and pumping station equipment), have it manufactured and delivered, put out bids to contractors, possibly negotiate land access etc. I'm sure they learned from KXL and all their wasted pipe not to put the cart before the government horse.

Ah, so there is still economic activity being generated, just not in the form of digging the actual pipeline.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by _Q_

The way I see it is if these two pipelines do not get built by the next election, it'll be a political disaster for the Liberals. On one hand you'll have the conservatives using the drawn out process and lack of tangible results as ammunition. On the other hand, the mere approval of these pipelines will be a major policy issue for the NDP.

Because of that, I think Trudeau is all in on these projects.

I think he realizes that his support in Ontario/Quebec will not be as high as it was last time, and he needs votes in the West to win another election, which will happen right at the same time when these pipelines should be in full swing.

On the other hand he probably pissed off every idiot in BC so who knows...