2015/2016 Trade Speculation and Rumors v2

[JohnnyT]

Originally Posted by New Era

Murray is unproven. It is a buyers market. Who is going to take him for more? How many teams need goaltenders? You'd think this guy was Caret Price or something.

The goalie market is really interesting to me this year. How many buyers do you think there are? Flames and Leafs seem like the obvious ones. I assume the Oilers would at least have a toe in the water. Buffalo has Linus Ullmark as a back up and only $2.225 spent on Lehner, so they're probably at least seeing what the price is going to be. Winnipeg could also be looking for a backup, but they do have Hutchinson, Hellebuyck and Comrie in the system so its unlikely.

So the buyers are:

Calgary
Toronto

Edmonton
Buffalo
Winnipeg

There's really only two sellers in Anahiem (Andersen) and Pittsburgh (Murray), as well as guys like Howard who easily be moved. There's also a wealth of goalies out there in free agency:

Reimer, Raanta, Ward, Khudobin, Stalock, Johnson, Montoya, Hutton

So definitely a buyers market in terms of supply and demand, but I think having guys like Andersen and Murray available (possibly Murray) changes things a bit. Obviously Calgary and the Leafs will push for those two, but I think all the other potential buyers will be in the mix in some capacity too. Plus you have teams like Philly and Winnipeg who don't have a goalie signed past next season that will also be looking.

What makes this interesting is that the free agent market is large, but if you're looking for a number 1 you really only have Reimer, maybe Raanta and a reclamation project in Ward. So if you can't get a deal done for Andersen or Murray at the draft and the talks drag out, do you wait past July 1 to sign a goalie? Calgary is really the only team that doesn't have a number 1 goalie next season of the buyers, so if they don't one prior to July 1 I highly doubt they sit on their hands.

For the sellers, those buyers can quickly dry if they try and hold out for a better deal. Can Anahiem afford to sign Andersen? Maybe, but I would suspect any potential buyer would rather be the one negotiating. If Pittsburgh sits on Murray and then decides on which goalie to move prior to the expansion draft what is the goalie market going to look like then? And if Murray continues to be solid in the playoff it could be the highest his stock gets before the expansion draft.

Lots of unanswered questions in the goalie market going into the summer.

EDIT:

Other options that people have pointed out:

Lighting have Bishop ($5.95 UFA) & Vasilevsky (925K RFA) both expiring after next season.
Blues have Elliot ($2.5 UFA) and Allen (2.35 RFA) both expiring after next season
Calvin Pickard (850.5K) is an RFA in Colorado

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Hes

How so ?

I also think that if he has a strong playoffs for Pittsburgh they would probably just rather move Fleury or buy him out.

Murray is a 5 goaltending prospect. MacDonald is a top 15 goaltending prospect. They take a top prospect at his position for a guy they are very likely to lose. That is a massive win for them.

Pittsburgh is not going to buy Fleury out with three years and $16.5M left on his contract. That would be stupid.

[VladtheImpaler]

Johny, you forgot Bishop/Vasilevsky and Varlamov/Pickard.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by New Era

MacDonald for Murray is more than enough.

More than enough for the Flames, sure. The problem with trades is there's always that pesky other team in the deal that also wants value.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by jayswin

More than enough for the Flames, sure. The problem with trades is there's always that pesky other team in the deal that also wants value.

Good luck getting it. Who are they going to get for a bidding war? If Treliving was going to roll over and overpay he would have already. He's waiting for Pittsburgh to blink, and they are going to be forced to.

[GoJetsGo]

Originally Posted by New Era

Good luck getting it. Who are they going to get for a bidding war? If Treliving was going to roll over and overpay he would have already. He's waiting for Pittsburgh to blink, and they are going to be forced to.

There's a difference between a bidding war and a Murray for McDonald swap.

One is playing well in the NHL playoffs at present while the other struggled at times in junior this year.

The value there is way, way off.

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by New Era

Good luck getting it. Who are they going to get for a bidding war? If Treliving was going to roll over and overpay he would have already. He's waiting for Pittsburgh to blink, and they are going to be forced to.

I agree with you entirely about the marketplace. But PIT will be looking to move MAF, not Murray, so you would still need to "wow" them to get Murray... Me - I would just take the low-hanging fruit cheap (Bishop or MAF).

[Da_Chief]

Originally Posted by New Era

Murray is a 5 goaltending prospect. MacDonald is a top 15 goaltending prospect. They take a top prospect at his position for a guy they are very likely to lose. That is a massive win for them.

Pittsburgh is not going to buy Fleury out with three years and $16.5M left on his contract. That would be stupid.

The Flames have a chance at a top 5 pick. The Bruins are getting a top 15 pick. Would you make that swap?

[jayswin]

I don't agree with the low hanging fruit plan. Goaltending is our biggest weakness and our choice going forward will have a huge impact on whether we're a playoff bubble team, strong playoff team or Stanley Cup contender.

It's not a position that you go "meh, I don't want to get in a bidding war or have to give up huge assets for one", so we'll grab the easiest solution that don't cost an arm and a leg".

If Brad legitimately thinks a cheaper/assetless solution brings us the best goaltender than for sure take him, but I'd hate to grab "low hanging fruit" and then a year later be going "Holy crap, this guy's alright but he's not a top 15 goalie in the league and Murray would have only cost us last years 28th overall from Dallas and we'd likely be a contender now".

[VladtheImpaler]

The low-hanging fruit are proven top 10 NHL goalies. Murray is just a "maybe".

[GoJetsGo]

Originally Posted by VladtheImpaler

The low-hanging fruit are proven top 10 NHL goalies. Murray is just a "maybe".

Except there's zero indication either of those goalies (MAF or Bishop) are available to the point where they're "low hanging fruit".

No indication Pits and Tampa have decided to move them, or in Fleury's case that he'd agree to come here (No move clause).

A bit presumptuous to refer to them as though we can simply pluck them.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Da_Chief

The Flames have a chance at a top 5 pick. The Bruins are getting a top 15 pick. Would you make that swap?

That is a horrible comparison. That is a top prospect at their position not over all. Goaltenders are very hit and miss, and many of those top prospects develop outside the 1st round. You know, like Matt Murray, drafted in the 3rd round.

[VladtheImpaler]

Originally Posted by GoJetsGo

Except there's zero indication either of those goalies (MAF or Bishop) are available to the point where they're "low hanging fruit".

No indication Pits and Tampa have decided to move them, or in Fleury's case that he'd agree to come here (No move clause).

A bit presumptuous to refer to them as though we can simply pluck them.

I am fine if TB chooses to move Vasilevsky instead. The point is, there are several teams that HAVE to move a good goalie. Let's pick one.

[GoJetsGo]

Originally Posted by New Era

That is a horrible comparison.

So is assuming Murray and McDonald have equal value. Yet you're sticking to it.

[The Fonz]

If DAL can turn our 2nd rounder into a 1st, I think we'll see it traded, possibly with MacDonald, to TB for Bishop.

[Da_Chief]

Originally Posted by New Era

That is a horrible comparison. That is a top prospect at their position not over all. Goaltenders are very hit and miss, and many of those top prospects develop outside the 1st round. You know, like Matt Murray, drafted in the 3rd round.

Matt Murray right now is a hit, not a miss. MacDonald on the other hand is still a ? looking like a miss.

And you mentioning this is a top prospect at their position not overall makes your point look even sillier. Overall 5 to 15 wouldn't be such a huge drop off but focusing on one position and saying top 5 and top 15 are equal is just silly.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by New Era

Good luck getting it. Who are they going to get for a bidding war? If Treliving was going to roll over and overpay he would have already. He's waiting for Pittsburgh to blink, and they are going to be forced to.

Are they though?

At worst they might have to expose MAF to the expansion draft and go with Murray long term. Well he's their playoff goalie right now so they're getting a good look at how he can perform under pressure. They lose MAF, well that's 5M in free cap space.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by New Era

That is a horrible comparison. That is a top prospect at their position not over all. Goaltenders are very hit and miss, and many of those top prospects develop outside the 1st round. You know, like Matt Murray, drafted in the 3rd round.

I think you have this whole thing backwards. If the flames are going to trade a goaltending prospect, McDonald, to Pittsburg, it's going to be for Fleury.

[AC]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Are they though?

At worst they might have to expose MAF to the expansion draft and go with Murray long term. Well he's their playoff goalie right now so they're getting a good look at how he can perform under pressure. They lose MAF, well that's 5M in free cap space.

Fleury has a NMC, has to be protected.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Are they though?

At worst they might have to expose MAF to the expansion draft and go with Murray long term. Well he's their playoff goalie right now so they're getting a good look at how he can perform under pressure. They lose MAF, well that's 5M in free cap space.

Yep.

Pittsburgh isn't going to be forced to do anything just yet. They have two good to very good goaltenders & over a year to decide which one they will go forward with. If Jim Rutherford has two brain cells to rub together he would ask for much more than McDonald & the cheaper/younger Murray is who is the guy who Pittsburgh is going to give the crease to.

If Murray & the pens can get by Washington you can all but guarantee it's going to be MAF traded.