April 23 2012: Alberta Provincial Election

[photon]

I've lost count of how many times I've been robocalled today.

Whoever hasn't robocalled me gets my vote.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Slava

That was a little disappointing actually. It wasn't as funny as some of the other ones like the Alberta Party or the Apple iPhone one. Not because its the PCs, just not as well done...if that makes any sense?

I think it was about 3 minutes too long.

Originally Posted by Slava

I do take issue with your last sentence though. Quite often the first part is cut-off because the guy is writing a piece that has to make sense to the reader. It's quite difficult to fit the entire sentence in at times, and just by removing the first part of it doesn't mean all context is lost.

When you are alleging something that damaging and inflammatory you should put in the whole quote IMO. It's not like he was writing that in a physical newspaper and only had so much room.

Originally Posted by Slava

Its OK to admit that you don't believe in science. I was watching Mad Men last week and most of the characters on that show would agree that smoking isn't bad for your health! You're not alone in your views and you really should fit for them.

Never watched Mad Men but it's pretty obvious that smoking is bad for your health.

Originally Posted by kn

I must be blind. I see the methodology links but not for riding predictions. I did a CTRL-F but came up with nothing.

There is a graphic right under the top numbers that says "Alberta Riding Projections" and has an Alberta symbol on both sides. It is a clickable link.

[Slava]

^ I don't want to quote it because its too big, but that breakdown will be wrong for sure. I don't think anyone believes that Kent Hehr loses Calgary Buffalo and its not close. Same goes for David Swann in Mountain View. Then we get to ridings like Currie, Varsity, McCall and Klein where there is a decent shot for the Liberals.

Then we move along to ridings like Lethbridge where the support is a lot different than what is shown here and I think there is a legit shot for the Liberals to take both seats. Its way more up in the air than this indicates at the very least.

I know that it "feels" like there are no Liberals in Alberta, or at least it feels like it's one in a million, but thats a product of FPTP. In my riding the Liberal did nothing in 2008 and still picked up 24% of the vote. Granted, 2008 was totally different and there were different factors, but my point is that there are ridings where if the Liberal vote holds and there is a split with the PC/WR they could come up the middle. I know you guys here are skeptical, and its not a lock by any stretch, but Liberals know this could happen as well. Deep down the WR and PCs know it too; thats why the "Blue Committee" was formed a couple of years ago. I have a feeling there could be a couple of surprises tomorrow night.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Slava

I know that it "feels" like there are no Liberals in Alberta, or at least it feels like it's one in a million, but thats a product of FPTP. In my riding the Liberal did nothing in 2008 and still picked up 24% of the vote.

The big question is how many will switch their votes and go strategically PC, I'm guessing lots but we'll see.

Originally Posted by Slava

I have a feeling there could be a couple of surprises tomorrow night.

Whoa big fella, there are two days left

[jayswin]

So for those of us who aren't fully entralled in this thread, what did Danielle Smith say about smoking?

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by Cheese

yeesh...first time I looked in on this thread and the upcoming vote.
Only in Alberta could they swing from Conservative to "more Conservative" LOL

It only looks that way.

In reality, only in Alberta do the parties radically shift, yet the voters stay the same. The average voter in Alberta hasn't become more conservative, they're exactly the same as they've always been.

People want a fiscally conservative government. That hasnt changed in decades. All other issues and ridiculous statements and viewpoints are secondary to that reality. People will hold their noses to the social ineptitude of some Wildrose candidates, and Danielle Smith's pure libertarian dismissal of blatant stupidity as harmless, non-policy opinion to get that.

I simply can't believe a party as experienced and wily as the Alberta PCs forgot that.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by flameswin

So for those of us who aren't fully entralled in this thread, what did Danielle Smith say about smoking?

We're not 100% sure, according to the portion of the quote she apparently thinks that smoking will improve your health

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Jacks

The big question is how many will switch their votes and go strategically PC, I'm guessing lots but we'll see.


Whoa big fella, there are two days left

Oh, in ridings like mine the Liberal will get hollowed out, down to NDP type numbers. In ridings where they have run a campaign and have a ground game though I imagine it'll be closer.

[Jacks]

Agree that the breakdowns by riding are a little silly. They have the Liberal in my riding getting less than 8% of the vote and the PC getting almost 36%. There are lots of Liberal signs around the riding, probably as many as PC's, and the Liberal candidate has actually been out door knocking. He's been doing a ton more groundwork than the PC.

[Thunderball]

Originally Posted by Slava

^ I don't want to quote it because its too big, but that breakdown will be wrong for sure. I don't think anyone believes that Kent Hehr loses Calgary Buffalo and its not close. Same goes for David Swann in Mountain View. Then we get to ridings like Currie, Varsity, McCall and Klein where there is a decent shot for the Liberals.

Then we move along to ridings like Lethbridge where the support is a lot different than what is shown here and I think there is a legit shot for the Liberals to take both seats. Its way more up in the air than this indicates at the very least.

I know that it "feels" like there are no Liberals in Alberta, or at least it feels like it's one in a million, but thats a product of FPTP. In my riding the Liberal did nothing in 2008 and still picked up 24% of the vote. Granted, 2008 was totally different and there were different factors, but my point is that there are ridings where if the Liberal vote holds and there is a split with the PC/WR they could come up the middle. I know you guys here are skeptical, and its not a lock by any stretch, but Liberals know this could happen as well. Deep down the WR and PCs know it too; thats why the "Blue Committee" was formed a couple of years ago. I have a feeling there could be a couple of surprises tomorrow night.

I heard from some reliable people that Hehr was polling way behind in Calgary-Buffalo. Granted that was a few days ago. I highly doubt that's true, and I highly, highly doubt the Liberals get any less than 4 seats despite what 308 says. My bet is the NDP and the Liberals sharing about 10-14 seats, 12 being most likely.

All inner city Calgary districts could easily go Liberal, including Calgary-Elbow. There's gonna be a lot more three-way races (either with the Libs or Dippers as that third party)than that 308 methology lets on.

Personally, if I'm a left of centre voter, I would stick to my ideology and vote NDP or Liberal. I'd rather risk the WR winning my seat than risk weakening my party's bargaining position in a highly likely minority government situation. I'd rather guarantee my party is the sole balance of power, rather than need both leftist parties, regardless who is that minority government.

[kn]

I don't think it'll make much of a difference at this late stage among the undecided but apparently Redford was the only leader not to meet with Treaty 6 Chiefs. A "scheduling conflict" was dismissed as an excuse since alternate dates were also turned down:

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/Al...840/story.html

[Handsome B. Wonderful]

Originally Posted by Slava

^ I don't want to quote it because its too big, but that breakdown will be wrong for sure. I don't think anyone believes that Kent Hehr loses Calgary Buffalo and its not close.

Kent Hehr is a non-entity. Deal with it

[Makarov]

Originally Posted by Handsome B. Wonderful

Kent Hehr is a non-entity. Deal with it

That strikes me as a profoundly ignorant thing to say about an incumbent MLA, especially one who has achieved as much as Kent Hehr has in his life.

[Codes]

Originally Posted by Slava

Then we move along to ridings like Lethbridge where the support is a lot different than what is shown here and I think there is a legit shot for the Liberals to take both seats. Its way more up in the air than this indicates at the very least.

Slava, regarding Lethbridge, I was under the impression that in the last provincial election, the Liberals garnered a significant number of votes. I saw it in one of the billion pamphlets I have found in my mailbox. Is the riding projection truly unrepresentative? I intended to vote Liberal, but this projection had given me pause.

I'm going to vote this afternoon. I'm a Liberal, I want to vote Liberal, so should I vote Liberal? I want to play the numbers game and avoid WR.

Edit:

In Lethbridge West, the Liberals in 2008 garnered 4030 votes to the PC's 5009.

In Lethbridge East, the Liberals in 2008 garnered 5583 votes to the PC's 4716 and won the riding.

That's excellent.

[puffnstuff]

The WR candidate in my riding is doing himself no favors today...

Moved a bunch of his signs so they are right in front of the ones from other candidates (i know..volunteer campaign worker)...but it gets better...just down from there

He's standing on the side of the road (at a not very busy suburban intersection, thers not even any lights there) with a flunky waving his election placard for him, he's looking overcooked in his sport jacket, sun glaring of his shaved pate, giving what i believe is a very good impression of Queen Elizabeths 'royal wave'

Made my day...i'm still laughing...it was hilarious, and if anything, he just sealed it, theres no way he should be voted for. Thats the best you can come up with to connect with voters two days before the election? Good grief.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Codes

Slava, regarding Lethbridge, I was under the impression that in the last provincial election, the Liberals garnered a significant number of votes. I saw it in one of the billion pamphlets I have found in my mailbox. Is the riding projection truly unrepresentative? I intended to vote Liberal, but this projection had given me pause.

I'm going to vote this afternoon. I'm a Liberal, I want to vote Liberal, so should I vote Liberal? I want to play the numbers game and avoid WR.

Well its hard to say with certainty, bit last time around they won Lethbridge East and had just over 4000 votes in Lethbridge West which was a close second. I can easily see a split there and as such Lethbridge could be all Liberal.

As for the talk of Hehr losing, anything is possible, and thats why they have the vote. I haven't talked to anyone there voting for anyone other than him though and people who are unhappy with the PCs are going his way as well.

I don't think there is a hope for the Liberals in Elbow. No ground game to speak of and a parachute candidate basically.

[Codes]

Yeah, I went and looked up the numbers.

I'd much rather vote based on my ideologies over strategic blocking, so I think based on the results from the last election, I'd be comfortable to cast a vote for the Liberal party.

I know Bal Boora has been working hard in Lethbridge West. He came to my place twice, but I was at work both times. As far as I can tell, no other representative came door knocking.

[moon]

Originally Posted by Slava

Then we move along to ridings like Lethbridge where the support is a lot different than what is shown here and I think there is a legit shot for the Liberals to take both seats. Its way more up in the air than this indicates at the very least.

Maybe I am missing something down here but talking to people and seeing signs I can't imagine the Liberals winning Lethbridge West at all.

They seem to me to be the 4th choice but that is mainly anecdotal.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Codes

Yeah, I went and looked up the numbers.

I'd much rather vote based on my ideologies over strategic blocking, so I think based on the results from the last election, I'd be comfortable to cast a vote for the Liberal party.

I know Bal Boora has been working hard in Lethbridge West. He came to my place twice, but I was at work both times. As far as I can tell, no other representative came door knocking.

Ya, I would guess he has a really good chance. He has been door-knocking a lot and really trying to hold his votes. That combined with a loss of some support for Weadick and I think he wins. This is a good illustration of where the seat projections are so tough.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by photon

I've lost count of how many times I've been robocalled today.

Whoever hasn't robocalled me gets my vote.

I haven't been robocalled once today!

Probably because I voted on Thursday. Go vote and you won't get robocalled anymore!