Russia invades Ukraine

[burn_this_city]

Russia can't walk away with any stolen land from this, the breakaway parts in the east were completely astroturfed by Russia. Crimea is part of Ukraine, it was stolen in 2014 after Putin's stooge was overthrown in Ukraine. All must return as an absolute minimum.

[Plett25]

Ukraine is fighting for their lives and their future. They know what it is like to live under the thumb of a Russian dictatorship. They don't want to return to the bad old days of the USSR.

Every dead Russian soldier is one fewer to kill next time Russia invades. Every destroyed tank is one fewer to deal with next time Russia invades.

Russia is losing this war. They are successful at murdering Ukrainian civilians and levelling buildings, but they are losing militarily. It is a matter of time before the entire Russian invasion force is dead or captured. They simply don't have the logistics capability to support a protracted war against a motivated enemy armed with Stingers and Javelins (and real-time US intelligence)

Losers don't set the terms for peace. There isn't really a winner in this situation, so a return to the status quo is the most likely outcome.

EU membership will depend on EU-Ukraine negotiations.
NATO membership will depend on NATO-Ukraine negotiations.
Crimea, Luhansk and Donestsk will be regarded as Russian occupied Ukrainian territories.

If the terrorist dictator Putin needs some victories to save face, he can invent them and feed the propaganda to the brainwashed Russian population just like he did with his ridiculous justifications to invade.

Sanctions should remain until Ukraine is rebuilt. Putin can say ending trade with the west was his idea. There's another victory for him.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by calculoso

I don’t think that is enough.

Maybe not, likely not, but it might have to be, the alternative is that Putin's troops dig in, shell cities and general continue to fight a war that neither side can afford, but Ukraine still has much to lose.

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500879435234516992

[cam_wmh]

Originally Posted by Pointman

We believe it's real threat. The whole point of creating NATO was to keep Russia on check. The whole point of accepting eastern European countries was to get to Russian borders, so to be able to keep Russia in check even tighter. I don't buy that NATO is purely defensive because offense is best defense. NATO has a history of doing things as they see fit, rather than according to law. USA has a history of interfering into other nations, such as Iraq bombing. Or operation Condor. We sure are afraid of a country that can declare that we have weapons of mass destruction and bomb us out, if they so wish. Do I believe that US/NATO wanted to shoot at us? No. But I do believe they want to keep us at the gunpoint

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Legi...20Organisation.

Thanks for sharing your perspective. Genuinely.

But I do believe they want to keep us at the gunpoint

Why do you feel the west is doing this? What do you and other Russians think the motive is?

[FlamesAddiction]

If Russia gets those demands, all it does it prove that Russian aggression wins in the end if they are willing to take enough bodies home. In no way can this end with Russia being rewarded.

Obviously, I am not one of the millions suffering in Ukraine though and I can't imagine being in their situation. They have been very brave and I couldn't fault them for taking the deal I guess.

When this is all over and NATO is off the table, they should still make sure that Ukraine is armed to the teeth. Of course, the risk there is that Russia manages to eventually overthrow their government and disarms them anyway.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by calculoso

If they add “Russia and Russian allied countries will not attack Ukraine for 100 years” then maybe there is a starting point for negotiations. If not, what is to prevent Russia from taking a break, re-supplying, and giving it another go?

In the East of Ukraine, there already were pro-Russian de-facto separatist governments that were already ruling parts of Eastern Ukraine. These eastern provinces are about 40% ethnically Russian and almost entirely Russian speaking. Russia invading those provinces was always going to be a cake walk. There was clearly a hard line between those provinces and the West of Ukraine, and Russia can't simply walk through other provinces. Russia can't re-arm and invade further without entrenching themselves in another not-so easily winnable war.

The main issue with Russia's "proposal" is the wording and the humiliating groveling of the Ukrainian government it requires. That will likely change before a ceasefire. But at the end of the day, the bones of the proposal are basically a return to the way things were exactly before the war started.

[GordonBlue]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

The fact that the allies kept the civil infrastructure in Germany in place after WW2 is well know, and it was all nazi, police chiefs, mayors, head teachers etc it is a huge reason why the occupation of Germany was a success and the occupation of Iraq was the massive failure, we executed around 500 nazis officially, probably a few hundred more unofficially, it took far more Nazi's than that to just administer the holocaust alone

not to mention all the scientists who instead of paying for their crimes, got to work for the allies.

[Table 5]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Russia can't walk away with any stolen land from this, the breakaway parts in the east were completely astroturfed by Russia. Crimea is part of Ukraine, it was stolen in 2014 after Putin's stooge was overthrown in Ukraine. All must return as an absolute minimum.

Almost 70% of the people in Crimea consider themselves Russian (and only about 15% Ukranian). I get the arguments for wanting it back (and there is certainly a strong argument just to punish Putin or deter future incursions)... but with those types of demographics, it will most certainly remain a point of contention in the future if left in Ukrainian hands. If the West or Ukraine is willing to deal with the future strife, then fine, but if not, it may be in the best interests of everyone to now leave it as is. It's probably partly why the world didn't make as much of a fuss as it could have in regards to the annexation in the first place.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by AltaGuy

Yeah, definitely a tough decision. Wouldn't blame Ukraine for fighting on. However, you have to realize that "the message" sent on either issue contains tens of thousands of Ukrainian lives, so a much heavier decision for them than any outsider.

If Ukraine believes that the outcome will eventually resemble what Russia proposed, except with an exceptionally bloody path there, taking it or something close to it makes sense.

Obviously it's about Ukrainian lives, but it's also about Ukraine's future (and the future of other surrounding nations).

Agreeing to those demands accomplishes nothing, and makes those lost lives unpurposed.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

If Russia gets those demands, all it does it prove that Russian aggression wins in the end if they are will to take enough bodies home. In now way can this end with Russia being rewarded.

Obviously, I am not one of the millions suffering in Ukraine though and I can't imagine being in their situation. They have been very brave and I couldn't fault them for taking the deal I guess.

When this is all over and NATO is off the table, they should still make sure that Ukraine is armed to the teeth. Of course, the risk there is that Russia manages to eventually overthrow their government and disarms them anyway.

Russia getting nothing out of the war but what it started with and losing vast amounts of equipment (as even the kit the Ukrainians haven't captured or destroyed will be basically useless if it gets back to Russia) and being humiliated on the world stage, losing its image as a powerful military (which in truth was the only reputation it had), having its economy devastated, having it's customer base for its one export destroyed as Europe will still move away from Russian gas no matter how this war ends, no this would be for Russia a massive defeat that would leave them economically devastated for decades

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by Table 5

Almost 70% of the people in Crimea consider themselves Russian (and only about 15% Ukranian). I get the arguments for wanting it back... but with those types of demographics, it will most certainly remain a point of contention in the future if left in Ukrainian hands. If the West or Ukraine is willing to deal with the future strife, then fine, but if not, it may be in the best interests of everyone to now leave it as is.

Ethnic Russians make up huge parts of the east where they are fighting the Russian Army. Free them all and decide 5 years from now if people want to live in a dictatorship any longer.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Maybe not, likely not, but it might have to be, the alternative is that Putin's troops dig in, shell cities and general continue to fight a war that neither side can afford, but Ukraine still has much to lose.

I think it depends on the impact of the sanctions in Russia. People will stick with the cause for a while, but as the prices of everything go way up and they can't go anywhere because of the sanctions - how do they react?

This is beyond a military conflict at this point.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

As much as we like to think that things like this are going to happen, its more hollywood then anything else and not likely to happen.

Putin isn't getting assassinated, and he's ruthless enough about the supression of his own people and seems to have strong control on the his internal security apparatus.

If he was feeling secure about his position and the loyalty of his safety apparatus, he wouldn't be hiding in a bunker in an undisclosed location sending out somewhat weird and rambling videos and and not even letting his own generals get physically near him.

One major reason why dictators or world leaders in general can't just spend their time hiding away somewhere out of sight is that you need to be at the actual center of power, and be seen doing it, to be regarded as the actual leader long-term.

So much of this whole situation is unprecedented (as historical situations often are) that I don't want to sound like I have a crystal ball, but when dictators are at the "hiding away in a bunker somewhere and sounding a bit unhinged" stage, that tends to be the last stage of their reign. The idea of Putin getting murdered (or committing a "surprise suicide") might seem far-fetched at the moment, but to me it doesn't seem any more unrealistic than this current scenario continuing for very long.

The whole nation of Russia is gridlocked into a horrible situation that very few wanted or even knew about in advance, and it's costing lives, money, resources and allies and just hurting every person living in Russia in some way. Just getting rid of one guy would go a hell of a long way to start fixing the immediate problems.

I get that Putin is as much a symbol as he's a man at this point in Russia, but as Pointman and many others have said, Putin got into power because he made people believe he brings stability. Now he's turned into an engine of instability.

Somethings gotta give here, and I don't see the Ukrainians putting down their arms at this point, when things are looking like they might be about to turn.

[PeteMoss]

I'll also add its about the Ukrainians wants at this point. The US/EU can step in and negotiate sanctions at some point but right now there is no indication either side is really wanting to negotiate anything.

EDIT: meant to add to my above post, not a reply to Itse post.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

If Russia gets those demands, all it does it prove that Russian aggression wins in the end if they are willing to take enough bodies home. In no way can this end with Russia being rewarded.

Obviously, I am not one of the millions suffering in Ukraine though and I can't imagine being in their situation. They have been very brave and I couldn't fault them for taking the deal I guess.

When this is all over and NATO is off the table, they should still make sure that Ukraine is armed to the teeth. Of course, the risk there is that Russia manages to eventually overthrow their government and disarms them anyway.

I disagree on this.

The West can finally stick it to Russia economically. That's realistically their only weapon here. It's also the best way that the West has to pressure Russia's government into resigning.

All Russia is "gaining" from this is an acknowledgment from Ukraine of what they'd already imposed prior to the conflict. They're essentially trying to humiliate Ukraine. They are literally gaining nothing physical. There is no change in what was going on before the war, other than Ukraine ending the conflict in the East, which they had already lost.

Russia, assuming the sanctions have teeth, is, however, losing a lot economically.

[burn_this_city]

More fuel trucks smashed outside of Pryluky

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500876775198449664

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1500856909498359808

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

The fact that the allies kept the civil infrastructure in Germany in place after WW2 is well know, and it was all nazi, police chiefs, mayors, head teachers etc it is a huge reason why the occupation of Germany was a success and the occupation of Iraq was the massive failure, we executed around 500 nazis officially, probably a few hundred more unofficially, it took far more Nazi's than that to just administer the holocaust alone

I'm not saying you're wrong, but his posts in this thread have been borderline ridiculous

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by blankall

I disagree on this.

The West can finally stick it to Russia economically. That's realistically their only weapon here. It's also the best way that the West has to pressure Russia's government into resigning.

All Russia is "gaining" from this is an acknowledgment from Ukraine of what they'd already imposed prior to the conflict. They're essentially trying to humiliate Ukraine. They are literally gaining nothing physical. There is no change in what was going on before the war, other than Ukraine ending the conflict in the East, which they had already lost.

Russia, assuming the sanctions have teeth, is, however, losing a lot economically.

Russia would be getting Ukraine's giving recognition to Russia that parts of their sovereign territory are now independent (likely soon to annexed by Russia). So in practical terms, Russia will have succeeded in territorial gains from the war.