American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[CliffFletcher]

David Shore is Telling Democrats What They Don’t Want to Hear

But here’s the truly frightening thought for frustrated Democrats: This might be the high-water mark of power they’ll have for the next decade.

Democrats are on the precipice of an era without any hope of a governing majority. The coming year, while they still control the House, the Senate and the White House, is their last, best chance to alter course. To pass a package of democracy reforms that makes voting fairer and easier. To offer statehood to Puerto Rico and Washington, D.C. To overhaul how the party talks and acts and thinks to win back the working-class voters — white and nonwhite — who have left them behind the electoral eight ball. If they fail, they will not get another chance. Not anytime soon...

But it’s 2024 when Shor’s projected Senate Götterdämmerung really strikes. To see how bad the map is for Democrats, think back to 2018, when anti-Trump fury drove record turnout and handed the House gavel back to Nancy Pelosi. Senate Democrats saw the same huge surge of voters. Nationally, they won about 18 million more votes than Senate Republicans — and they still lost two seats. If 2024 is simply a normal year, in which Democrats win 51 percent of the two-party vote, Shor’s model projects a seven-seat loss, compared with where they are now...

Put it all together, and the problem Democrats face is this: Educational polarization has made the Senate even more biased against Democrats than it was, and the decline in ticket splitting has made it harder for individual Democratic candidates to run ahead of their party.

Atop this analysis, Shor has built an increasingly influential theory of what the Democrats must do to avoid congressional calamity. The chain of logic is this: Democrats are on the edge of an electoral abyss. To avoid it, they need to win states that lean Republican. To do that, they need to internalize that they are not like and do not understand the voters they need to win over. Swing voters in these states are not liberals, are not woke and do not see the world in the way that the people who staff and donate to Democratic campaigns do.

All this comes down to a simple prescription: Democrats should do a lot of polling to figure out which of their views are popular and which are not popular, and then they should talk about the popular stuff and shut up about the unpopular stuff...

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/10/08/o...arization.html

tldr: ‘energizing’ educated, urban voters will do nothing to help Democrats win where they need to win in order to hold the Senate.

[PostandIn]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

Yup. The only reason Biden won was that progressives were extremely motivated to get rid of trump, it was his job to keep them motivated so they could gain some senate seats in 2022 and actually be able to get #### done then. He's failed miserably at that, and now Republicans are going to take back the senate and maybe the house as well. He won't be the worst, but Biden's legacy may be as the most ineffectual president in US history

Between seat redistribution, voter suppression laws and partisan gerrymandering the House will be in GOP hands for a decade. Say hello to Speaker McCarthy (or to whoever blades McCarthy, at Trumps direction, of course).

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

David Shore is Telling Democrats What They Don’t Want to Hear



tldr: ‘energizing’ educated, urban voters will do nothing to help Democrats win where they need to win in order to hold the Senate.

I agree. Lecturing these people about various identity-based grievances (even if they're true) while providing nothing substantive policy-wise is a great way to ensure the Democrats are left wandering in the wilderness come 2024.

It's pretty simple; improve the material conditions of voters and they'll vote for you. Shaming them isn't an effective strategy.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by Firebot

More Democrats want to can Biden, then Republicans want to can Trump.

I always find it interesting when a small poll speaks for 'Americans'. They polled 1000 people. That's it. I hardly think they speak for the entire country.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by rubecube

If you're a young, progressive or working class voter...

There's the problem. There are very few of those around. What you think is progressive is almost non-existent in this country. NON-existent. We're talking the left's version of the 1%. Not many, but unlike their Republican counterparts, have zero power. Young Americans are so disengaged from traditional politics that they can't be counted on to hit the polls. Their disenchantment with both parties, and disinterest in the political process itself, makes them a demographic that is unreliable and not worth investing the outreach program to. You have to wait for them to get married, buy a house, and have kids before they give a #### about anything politically. The working class vote is pretty much for Republicans because they are mostly conservative and buy into the God and guns nonsense. They actually embrace voting against their own best interests and wear it as a badge of honor. The only way Democrats win is by appealing to the vast majority of Americans, and that's the moderates. Unfortunately, their message sucks and they can't frame an issue worth a damn.

[GirlySports]

The Democratic tent is too big, can't appease everyone so there's in-fighting. The Republican tent is solid, even if you think it's based on lies and strawman arguments.

[Hemi-Cuda]

When Republicans take back the White House in 2024, I honestly believe that might be it for the 2 party system. They will learn from what Trump attempted in 2020 and ensure that they have the right people in the right places to illegitimize any potential election loss, and effectively turn the US into a single party authoritarian state

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

There's the problem. There are very few of those around. What you think is progressive is almost non-existent in this country. NON-existent. We're talking the left's version of the 1%. Not many, but unlike their Republican counterparts, have zero power. Young Americans are so disengaged from traditional politics that they can't be counted on to hit the polls. Their disenchantment with both parties, and disinterest in the political process itself, makes them a demographic that is unreliable and not worth investing the outreach program to. You have to wait for them to get married, buy a house, and have kids before they give a #### about anything politically. The working class vote is pretty much for Republicans because they are mostly conservative and buy into the God and guns nonsense. They actually embrace voting against their own best interests and wear it as a badge of honor. The only way Democrats win is by appealing to the vast majority of Americans, and that's the moderates. Unfortunately, their message sucks and they can't frame an issue worth a damn.

They might not identify as progressives, but some progressive policies have pretty widespread bipartisan support. If the Democrats focused on implementing those policies and people's lives were actually improved from them, you seriously don't think those people would show up for them at future elections?

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

When Republicans take back the White House in 2024, I honestly believe that might be it for the 2 party system. They will learn from what Trump attempted in 2020 and ensure that they have the right people in the right places to illegitimize any potential election loss, and effectively turn the US into a single party authoritarian state

lol.

Right now it is very much an appeal to the working class gets you votes environment.

Strikes, talk of strikes, worker rights, protected border, progressive view on crime (not defund the police though) etc.....it used to be the Democrats were in favor of this.

Time to kick the woke losers to the curb and get back to the roots of the party. There are many with good ideas, but their attempt to frame the issue is very cloudy right now.

[HockeyIlliterate]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

“Vote for us because even though we suck and won’t reflect your values the other guys suck even worse” is a terrible voter motivation technique and only leads to disenchantment. Then old moderates will whine that the progressives and young don’t vote, the cycle perpetuates, and the US continues its march further and further right.

Yes, or….

The young progressive(s) end up voting third party in large numbers, which finally becomes a viable alternative option to the Republicans and Democrats.

Democrats continually make campaign promises that they don’t keep, and I think that many young voters are believing that the game is rigged and that their votes are either being taken for granted or, worse, completely meaningless. I don’t see them as giving up on voting; I see them on giving up on the current options.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by rubecube

They might not identify as progressives, but some progressive policies have pretty widespread bipartisan support. If the Democrats focused on implementing those policies and people's lives were actually improved from them, you seriously don't think those people would show up for them at future elections?

Broad support until it comes to voting or adoption of policy. That’s what you don’t understand about the United States and Americans. They can say one thing, display values that you believe should be aligned with certain policies, but when the rubber hits the road, Americans will get sucked in by the same empty rhetoric and vote against their best interests. It doesn’t matter what people tell pollsters or identify as important to them, once the two parties start trotting out the tropes about patriotism, God, and guns, voters run back to their entrenched positions. The messaging has been consistent and effective for decades. The American people have been conditioned to it and reach just like one of Pavlov’s dogs when the bell rings. And the kids are going to be worse because of the failures in the education system and the reliance on charter schools/indoctrination centers to shape young minds.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by HockeyIlliterate

Yes, or….

The young progressive(s) end up voting third party in large numbers, which finally becomes a viable alternative option to the Republicans and Democrats.

Democrats continually make campaign promises that they don’t keep, and I think that many young voters are believing that the game is rigged and that their votes are either being taken for granted or, worse, completely meaningless. I don’t see them as giving up on voting; I see them on giving up on the current options.

Voting for a 3rd party in the US is like lighting your vote on fire. If you are concerned about the Democrats not doing what you want them to do at least you can get 5% or whatever you want. Voting for some random 3rd party ensures you get 0%.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Broad support until it comes to voting or adoption of policy. That’s what you don’t understand about the United States and Americans. They can say one thing, display values that you believe should be aligned with certain policies, but when the rubber hits the road, Americans will get sucked in by the same empty rhetoric and vote against their best interests. It doesn’t matter what people tell pollsters or identify as important to them, once the two parties start trotting out the tropes about patriotism, God, and guns, voters run back to their entrenched positions. The messaging has been consistent and effective for decades. The American people have been conditioned to it and reach just like one of Pavlov’s dogs when the bell rings. And the kids are going to be worse because of the failures in the education system and the reliance on charter schools/indoctrination centers to shape young minds.

Good post.

You could poll every individual thing in Biden's support bill and it could all poll at 80% approval. As soon as you put it together and call it a Democratic bill - it will immediately poll at 40-55%.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Azure

Time to kick the woke losers to the curb and get back to the roots of the party. There are many with good ideas, but their attempt to frame the issue is very cloudy right now.

Freddie deBoer describes the mindset succinctly.

The social justice movement is not just incidentally antagonistic to organizing everyone and recognizing all kinds of people as worthy of our compassion and support. That antagonism is existential. When you ask many people within the movement, “what could we do to convert the white working class to our values?,” they will simply tell you that they don’t want to convert them, that they are not worthy of being a part of their movement. They would rather have targets than converts, to lose as an exclusive moral caste than win as a grubby populist coalition.

https://freddiedeboer.substack.com/p...ike-to-utterly

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Azure

lol.

Right now it is very much an appeal to the working class gets you votes environment.

Strikes, talk of strikes, worker rights, protected border, progressive view on crime (not defund the police though) etc.....it used to be the Democrats were in favor of this.

Time to kick the woke losers to the curb and get back to the roots of the party. There are many with good ideas, but their attempt to frame the issue is very cloudy right now.

Don't think its that simple. Who are the 'woke losers' in charge of the Democratic party right now?

They aren't in charge but the Republicans and right wing media are very good at tying the Democratic party to those people so the average person thinks the Democratic is led by woke losers when its led by Biden and Pelosi who are about 100 years old and far from 'woke'.

[Monahammer]

Anyone who uses the term "woke" seriously is only worthy of derision and disrespect.

[MoneyGuy]

I woke up at 7:45 today. Is that okay?

[Maritime Q-Scout]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

I woke up at 7:45 today. Is that okay?

No. That's far too late in the morning.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

I woke up at 7:45 today. Is that okay?

No, screw you hippy.

[HockeyIlliterate]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Voting for a 3rd party in the US is like lighting your vote on fire. If you are concerned about the Democrats not doing what you want them to do at least you can get 5% or whatever you want. Voting for some random 3rd party ensures you get 0%.

This mindset is exactly why 3rd parties can’t get any traction.

I firmly believe that, given the right conditions and the right candidate(s), people will vote en masse for a third party and will topple the current two party system.

And as voters continue to get ignored and taken for granted, I suspect that they will transition from your mindset to mine.