2016 NHL Draft

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Tkachuk is the kind of player that scouts seem to love and fans are really less excited about.

Maybe fans are more interested in "will he make my team noticeably better" while scouts are more interested in "will he make my team?"

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Does anybody know why Cameron Morrison is not getting more hype as a late 1st rounder/ early 2nd rounder?

2nd in the USHL in scoring, and is a 6'2" 205lb C/LW

Put up 1.1 PPG in the league as a really young 17 year old (late August birthday). Led his own team by 16 points and 10 goals - so wasn't benefiting from playing with older linemates. And was a +38 on a team that overall had a -5 goal differential.

Really similar numbers to Brock Boesers 1.19 PPG, or Girgensons 1.12 PPG in their draft years. Also interesting is that when Kyle Connor played for the same team last year he only outscored his closest scoring teammate by 16 points.

Think he could be a steal with the Stars 1st (if we get it) or our 2nd if he is still there.

I like Morrison, but he is down around the Dallas pick or the Flames 2nd rounder. I'd be happy if the Flames nabbed him.

[SuperMatt18]

I hope other teams scouts sour on Tkachuk as much as GranteedEV has.

Would mean he likely falls to 6 and the Flames have a chance at drafting him.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Maybe fans are more interested in "will he make my team noticeably better" while scouts are more interested in "will he make my team?"

Pronman seemed to disagree with this. To me, he essentially said that Dubois is the safer pick, but Tkachuk has the higher upside. Believes that Tkachuk could be a game breaker, whereas Dubois will be a good top 6 forward, probably less of a game breaker.

He believes they are relatively even in value, but scouts will prefer Dubois a little more because he can play centre.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Pronman seemed to disagree with this. To me, he essentially said that Dubois is the safer pick, but Tkachuk has the higher upside. Believes that Tkachuk could be a game breaker, whereas Dubois will be a good top 6 forward, probably less of a game breaker.

He believes they are relatively even in value, but scouts will prefer Dubois a little more because he can play centre.

Interesting Pronman says that for sure. From what I've seen Tkachuk can only influence a game with his passing out of the cycle and his dirty goals.

I think Dubois can be a gamebreaker in more way than one. Passing and scoring out of the cycle, playmaking out of the rush, making a huge defensive play with his elite positioning, using his sweet reach at the blue line to stop entries, finding open areas away from the puck. He just seems to be able to beat you many more ways, just needs more time to refine every aspect. Even as a winger I could see him being a Hossa type.

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I hope other teams scouts sour on Tkachuk as much as GranteedEV has.

Would mean he likely falls to 6 and the Flames have a chance at drafting him.

I hope that who is actually fourth on the Flames list falls to six, even if it's Tkachuk. I'd prefer other guys though.

[Point Blank]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Pavel Brendl is a closer comparable. Either way. It's not posters making these claims about Tkachuk, outside media is making these arguments.

Fair enough, but Brendl was drafted in 1999, I'd like to think scouting metrics are different now.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Tkachuk is the kind of player that scouts seem to love and fans are really less excited about.

Agreed. I think there's a few reasons for this.

1. Powerforwards are often effective but not flashy. Winning a board battle to maintain possession isn't flashy. Dishing the puck off, then driving the net taking two defenders with you which opens up a ton of ice for your line mate isn't sexy. Screening the goalie to allow your teammate to pick top corner isn't as sexy as the guy picking top corner but its equally as important. We know that winning board battles to maintain possession, screening the goalie and generally being around the net are all extremely important when it comes to generating offence at the NHL level. It might be fair to say that the majority of the goals scored at the NHL level are screens, tips or rebounds because the goalies are so good. Therefore having high skill players who can drive the net for screens, tips and rebounds is very important. It becomes even more important when the playoffs hit and the refs occasionally swallow their whistles and allow defensemen to mug forwards.

2. A lot of the things complimentary players excel at are on a shift by shift basis and you can't be puck watching to notice them. Scouts isolate on a player when they watch him and watch everything he does from the moment he jumps on the ice to the moment he leaves it, not just when he has the puck. Your average fan is a puck watcher and doesn't take in as much that goes on away from the puck except on some replays. Some players don't contribute much except when they have the puck on their stick and some players have an elite game when they don't have the puck. Tkachuk is the latter IMO.

Because of points 1 and 2, youtube montages of a power forward/complimentary type will be underwhelming compared to the youtube montage of a player who is flashier with the puck on their stick. Nylander is going to wow you with what he does with the puck. But his game when he doesn't have the puck isn't much to write home about.

I think most scouts and GMs recognize how important these complimentary powerforwards can be for generating offence. I think some average fans underrate their role in generating offence.

Who was more effective, Gary Roberts or Kristian Huselius? Roberts quite easily IMO. Who was more purely skilled? Huselius quite easily. Who would've had the prettier highlight package on youtube that wows the fans? Huselius. But who was generating offence in the playoffs when there is tighter checking? Roberts.

I don't think the comparison is exact but to me Tkachuk is like a Roberts type and Nylander is closer to Huselius. Now I think there's a good chance Nylander doesn't end up as soft as Huselius and therefore ends up much more effective than Huselius was so that comparison might not be totally fair to him. But I think it illustrates my general point about power forward complimentary types vs pure skill finesse types. Tkachuk I see more in that Tkachuk, Guerin, Iginla, Roberts type mold. Nylander I see more in that Huselius, Val Bure, Michael Nylander type mold. I could be wrong.

Better pure skill doesn't always result in the better player. Winning board battles, net front battles, screening goalies, being in position for rebounds, driving the net are often underrated by fans. You would think a lot of Calgary fans would know this from the success we had with Roberts, early career Iginla, Chris Simon, etc. We've even seen this year with our power play struggles how important it can be to have a net front presence for screens and tips. The power play was garbage when we didn't have anyone filling that role and it improved when Colborne stepped up in that department. Now imagine we had someone better at it so that he could be 1st unit PP and Colborne/Ferland could be 2nd unit. It would potentially improve both power play units. Not to mention adding complimentary powerforwards will help with road match ups. You wanna double team Gaudreau? Well if we have a couple big skilled guys on his line then they can take advantage of that extra ice.

Anybody agree, disagree?

[Five-hole]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

I am still a bit leery on him though. Like others have said, 6'6" guys often bust. But I am warming up to him rather quickly, and in part it is because of his shot. I think it it is actually being massively underrated. I think it is actually one of his strong assets, and it is something he has to continue to use more of.

6'0" players often bust. 6'1" players often bust. Players of all sizes often bust, because it's a statistical anomaly to play in the NHL at all. 6'6" players are rare, so it's not surprising there aren't a ton of success stories. Add to the fact that some teams will draft players over that height regardless of hockey ability simply because of the size (cough Hunter Smith cough), and a high bust rate makes sense.

But the key factor is that, if they bust, it's not BECAUSE they are 6'6". It's because they aren't good enough hockey players to make the NHL. If Logan Brown busts, it's not because he's 6'6".

[Toonage]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Agreed. I think there's a few reasons for this.

1. Powerforwards are often effective but not flashy. Winning a board battle

Anybody agree, disagree?

You had me right there. Flames were awful at this (last season in particular) and it was one of my primary complaints from the past few seasons. If its addressed at this draft, I'll be thrilled.

[Rick M.]

Are any prospects who might be of interest to the Flames playing in the World Championships starting tomorrow?

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Point Blank

Fair enough, but Brendl was drafted in 1999, I'd like to think scouting metrics are different now.

Brendl didn't ride anyone's coattails either. In his draft year he had 73 goals and 134 points (he led the scoring race by 16 points). Brad Moran his centre had 60 goals and 118 points. The next highest forward on the team (Kris Beech) had 67 points!!!

He was a lazy cherry picker but a lethal finisher. Terrible example of someone riding someone's coattails though.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Rick M.

Are any prospects who might be of interest to the Flames playing in the World Championships starting tomorrow?

Matthews and Laine are there but both will go top 3. I don't believe any other draft eligibles are there but feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Rick M.

Are any prospects who might be of interest to the Flames playing in the World Championships starting tomorrow?

Don't think there's any draft eligibles outside of Laine playing in the tournament

[SuperMatt18]

The board battles and being dominant below the hashmarks is what has turned me around on Tkachuk as well.

That is a trait that is severely lacking on this team, and it can be hard to find guys who strive in that aspect but also have enough skill to make the right pass after winning the battle, and then can finish it off in front of the net as well.

It also why the "Primary" assist thing isn't a huge deal to me. If Tkachuk is the guy who is digging the puck out of the corner and doing the dirty work and then dishing it off to Dvorak or Marner and gets a secondary assist for it then great.

Grit to play in the corners, and skill/hockey sense to make the right pass can be a tough combo to find.

[albertGQ]

Originally Posted by dammage79

Don't think there's any draft eligibles outside of Laine playing in the tournament

I thought Matthews was on Team US?

[rvd123]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Neither player is worth anything close to the 6th pick individually and I don't think they are worth anything close combined.

Fleury is worth a hell of a lot more than 6th overall, go back to HF boards with that crap.

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by albertGQ

I thought Matthews was on Team US?

Right. Brain fart. Still, none of which would be in the Flames' wheelhouse barring a miracle.

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Agreed. I think there's a few reasons for this...

You're operating on a base assumption that

1) Matthew Tkachuk is a power forward (he's not. Milan Lucic is a power forward. Jamie Benn is a power forward.)
2) That what he does is underappreciated

No on is underappreciating "what he does". Complimentary players are important to good teams - but still periphery, not core players. Your Brandon Saads, Andrew Ladds, Chris Kunitz, Alex Killorn, Justin Abdelkader, Michael Froliks. They're easy to acquire both via trade, Free Agency, and also draft in later stages and develop. You call the Lightning and ask for Killorn, they look at their cap situation and open a conversation.

That's no underappreciating anyone, that's being realistic about what they are.

It's a lot harder to acquire a core player. A David Backes, Marian Hossa, Nathan Horton (prime), Dustin Brown (prime, before knee injuries), Ondrej Palat, or Jamie Benn. You call the Lightning and ask for Palat, they hang up on you right away. These are guys you surround with complimentary players.

Stop accusing anyone who doesn't see Tkachuk as a core player as simply being a puck watcher who doesn't appreciate what Tkachuk brings.

And being hard on the puck is also not being undervalued. It's extremely important. But it's also a mostly coachable trait, not an innate one.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by rvd123

Fleury is worth a hell of a lot more than 6th overall, go back to HF boards with that crap.

Is this a serious post?

[Roof-Daddy]

I know I wouldn't trade 6th overall for a 32 year old goalie with concussion issues.

I mean he's a good goalie, but that wouldn't be a smart long term move IMO.

You would be able to get a quality goalie for a lot cheaper price than that in the currently saturated goalie market.