American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by rubecube

They're one of the most repressive regimes in the world. It undermines any arguments a country has regarding human rights when you support a regime like that.

Like Canada?

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

They are the most important supplier of oil to the United States. They are a geopolitical ally in a region where allies are limited. They provide a solid foot hold for the projection of American power in the region, so you look past a lot of #### to have that access. It is part of geopolitics, something that is so beyond the regressive left it is painful at times.

US is a net oil exporter, so that shouldn't matter.

Why is the projection of power important? So the US can protect the innocent from oppressive regimes?

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

US is a net oil exporter, so that shouldn't matter.

Why is the projection of power important? So the US can protect the innocent from oppressive regimes?

We've become a net oil exporter in the last decade (2013 iirc). For the longest time we were an net importer. We were able to become a exporter because we have been able to leverage areas that had long been protected because of spill concerns. That went out the window and new we're drilling and fracking everywhere, much to the detriment of the environment. This exporter role was made possible because the United States was able to completely fill the strategic reserve. That is also turning because of a downward trend in domestic production, which will again turn us into a net importer. The United States is expected to import 4.4 million barrels of oil per day, up from 3.2 million. Access to the Saudi oil fields is still extremely important and why president after president kisses the ring - among other things - of the Saudi Royal family.

Why would the United States need to project power around the globe? Is it because they view themselves as the center of everything and want to maintain hegemony? I would suspect this is the driving force. It has nothing to do with protecting the innocent. The United States has killed more innocents with their military incursions than can be imagined. It is about maintaining their position as the shining light on the hill and having everything work the way they want it to work.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Like Canada?

It’s interesting that you are a constant critic of Canada buying Saudi oil but don’t see a problem with America selling them guns.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

We've become a net oil exporter in the last decade (2013 iirc). For the longest time we were an net importer. We were able to become a exporter because we have been able to leverage areas that had long been protected because of spill concerns. That went out the window and new we're drilling and fracking everywhere, much to the detriment of the environment. This exporter role was made possible because the United States was able to completely fill the strategic reserve. That is also turning because of a downward trend in domestic production, which will again turn us into a net importer. The United States is expected to import 4.4 million barrels of oil per day, up from 3.2 million. Access to the Saudi oil fields is still extremely important and why president after president kisses the ring - among other things - of the Saudi Royal family.

Why would the United States need to project power around the globe? Is it because they view themselves as the center of everything and want to maintain hegemony? I would suspect this is the driving force. It has nothing to do with protecting the innocent. The United States has killed more innocents with their military incursions than can be imagined. It is about maintaining their position as the shining light on the hill and having everything work the way they want it to work.

The US is a net exporter because of fracing the Permian, which is onshore. That 3.2 MM is total imports, not net imports, and a good chunk of that is because Saudi Arabia owns US refineries and ships its own oil to them, and then other US production is exported. I think it's very unlikely US oil imports will exceed exports from Canada/Mexico in any reasonable time scale (and maybe never depending on electric vehicle uptake). That's a dishonest reason to deal with war criminals, imo.

The US being a hegemony is the real reason. I agree that the number of innocents killed by the US military (and indirectly by US foreign policy like selling weapons to the Sauds) is huge. Hard to argue that's a force for good.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

It’s interesting that you are a constant critic of Canada buying Saudi oil but don’t see a problem with America selling them guns.

Its pretty easy to argue supplying an evil dictatorship with weapons AND supplying them with money to by weapons (by buying stuff from them) are both bad. We shouldn't do either.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Did you read the linked article?

"EIA expects that increasing crude oil imports will drive the growth in net petroleum imports in 2021 and 2022 and more than offset changes in refined product net trade. EIA forecasts that net imports of crude oil will increase from its 2020 average of 2.7 million barrels per day (b/d) to 3.7 million b/d in 2021 and 4.4 million b/d in 2022."

What is cool is US imports of Saudi oil is down to 1975 levels, and for the first time in 35 years the US had a week at the start of the year where we did not import any oil from Saudi Arabia (OPEC). Trust me, I think its wonderful that we're doing everything that we can to get off the Saudi teet, but we still rely on them as our second most important source of foreign oil, with Canada still being number one. Interestingly enough, Russia is number three, ahead of Mexico. Thought that was an interesting tidbit for conversation.

I think also missed here is the fact that the US is very much invested in Saudi Arabia as a strategic partner in the Muslim world. The US still has Saudi bases and uses them to project their power throughout the region. Without those bases the US wouldn't have much influence in the region.

[Azure]

I don't think anyone is arguing that its a force for good, but perhaps just a necessity.

Not sure I agree completely, but it is a valid argument. As the biggest player on the world stage, the US needs partners to be able to project its power.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

Did you read the linked article?

"EIA expects that increasing crude oil imports will drive the growth in net petroleum imports in 2021 and 2022 and more than offset changes in refined product net trade. EIA forecasts that net imports of crude oil will increase from its 2020 average of 2.7 million barrels per day (b/d) to 3.7 million b/d in 2021 and 4.4 million b/d in 2022."

What is cool is US imports of Saudi oil is down to 1975 levels, and for the first time in 35 years the US had a week at the start of the year where we did not import any oil from Saudi Arabia (OPEC). Trust me, I think its wonderful that we're doing everything that we can to get off the Saudi teet, but we still rely on them as our second most important source of foreign oil, with Canada still being number one. Interestingly enough, Russia is number three, ahead of Mexico. Thought that was an interesting tidbit for conversation.

I think also missed here is the fact that the US is very much invested in Saudi Arabia as a strategic partner in the Muslim world. The US still has Saudi bases and uses them to project their power throughout the region. Without those bases the US wouldn't have much influence in the region.

I read it again- the 3.2 MM is net US exports from 2020. The quote you're giving is crude oil imports. But the US imports crude oil and then exports the refined products as a spread trade.

The US is definitely a net exporter of petroleum.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

The US is definitely a net exporter of petroleum.

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46776

"However, largely because of declines in domestic crude oil production and corresponding increases in crude oil imports, EIA expects the United States to return to being a net petroleum importer on an annual basis in both 2021 and 2022."

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

https://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=46776

"However, largely because of declines in domestic crude oil production and corresponding increases in crude oil imports, EIA expects the United States to return to being a net petroleum importer on an annual basis in both 2021 and 2022."

Even if that expectation comes true (and increased drilling in the Permian because of higher prices makes it unlikely, imo) the US still has no need for middle eastern supplies. The amount of available imports from Canada/Mexico is way higher than any reasonable expectation or US imports.

[Lanny_McDonald]

I get what you're saying, but that the United States still relies on OPEC for oil. It is still the second largest supplier after Canada. The United States is trying to get off Middle Eastern oil, but to date, even with the expansion in domestic production and reliance on Canadian crude, they are still reliant on this flow of oil. Right or wrong, the United States is still in bed with the Saudis on many fronts, access to oil remaining top of that list.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

It’s interesting that you are a constant critic of Canada buying Saudi oil but don’t see a problem with America selling them guns.

I don’t have a problem with Canada buying or selling weapons or oil from Saudi Arabia. I think geopolitics are a complex beast and we have hitched our wagon to the US and it’s probably the best move. The Americans rely heavily on a beneficial relationship with the Saudis so it’s a complex issue.

I don’t take issue with Canada buying oil from Saudi Arabia. Saudi oil has different blends and characteristics that Canada needs. I believe that inter-provincial trade should not be artificially blocked and I believe Alberta needs to compete to get its oil to markets with the likes of international oil producers like Saudi Arabia. We need the oil. Canada props up artificial barriers to free trade (against its own country’s benefit) for what I view as mostly lousy reasons. If Alberta can compete better than Saudi oil for similar grades, so be it. If they can’t, let’s buy Saudi oil.

On the issue of human rights- which is still important to me- I personally don’t think Canada can or should be the worlds moral compass and arbiter. I believe the downside of pretending the world cares about our moral superiority is hugely detrimental to Canadians overall self interest, and I don’t think Canada can fix the worlds problems nor do I think it is even our role.

[Azure]

If only the US had a partner within a land locked area where pipelines could be built to provide a reliable supply of oil.....

[Lanny_McDonald]

We'll get Mexico right on that.

[nik-]

In fairness, Mexico already had several major pipelines into the US.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Really? Was unaware of any crossings from Mexico other than the one into El Paso. Where are the other ones?

[Firebot]

Biden's approval rating a year after his election win is an abysmal 38%.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...ll/6320098001/

38% is the same approval rating that Trump had a year in after being in power in Nov 2017. Biden started with 57% approval...to dip down to 38% within a year when starting from a higher point is historic.

https://news.gallup.com/poll/203198/...ald-trump.aspx


Other elected presidents in October of first year
Donald Trump 37 Oct 2017
Barack Obama 53 Oct 2009
George W. Bush 88 Oct 2001
Bill Clinton 48 Oct 1993
George H.W. Bush 68 Oct 1989
Ronald Reagan 55 Oct 1981
Jimmy Carter 55 Oct 1977
Richard Nixon 57 Oct 1969
John Kennedy 77 Oct 1961
Dwight Eisenhower 65 Oct 1953

Considering that Trump is the worst US president in history and how much hoopla was made about his historic low approval numbers back in 2017, Biden polling so low this early in his tenure should be quite alarming to Democrats for 2022 midterm and 2024.

Nearly two-thirds of Americans, 64%, say they don't want Biden to run for a second term in 2024. That includes 28% of Democrats. Opposition to Trump running for another term in 2024 stands at 58%, including 24% of Republicans.

More Democrats want to can Biden, then Republicans want to can Trump.

[ResAlien]

Thank Sinema and Manchin. Joe campaigned hard on being a deal maker, reaching across the aisle, let’s get back to normal. Instead two jackass allegedly Democrat senators have held everything he wanted to do hostage or have made it so watered down it may as well not pass at all, making him appear utterly useless and incompetent.

As much as I dislike the Republican Party can you imagine a world where they have 51 votes in the senate, a majority in the house, and get dick all done because of a couple holdout aholes are flexing on the entire party? They’d literally murder them.

[opendoor]

Shocking that a President that basically no one was enthusiastic about sees his approval rating drop once the shine of being not-Trump wears off a bit.

That said, it seems a bit odd to conflate the approval rating in a single USA Today poll with historical Gallup ratings. Why not use Biden's 48% approval from Ipsos or his 48% from CNN last week? Even Republican-leaning Rasmussun has Biden at 44%. In aggregate polling, his drop hasn't been quite so dramatic, starting at ~53-54% and now dropping to ~43%.