Rasmus Andersson watch — Will he stay or will he go?

[traptor]

Plus-minus isn’t a great stat on its own, but with some context or when it's extreme, it can offer some insight.

For Rasmus, the context does make things look a little bit better then the -38 indicates, but adjusting for the tough matchups, DZS%, eye test and whatever other metric you want to use, it still wasn’t a good year by his standards.

I think the Pionk contract adjusted for the cap is perfectly reasonable. 6x7.33%.


For the 26-27 cap of $104,000,000, that would work out to 6x7.6.

That seems perfectly reasonable and around where I would draw the line. I doubt he would take that.

[EDMONTONisNG]

Ras sticks up for the team. One of the few that really show emotion and heart for the team. Just comes down to money like anything.

[browntrout]

6 years at 6.5, is the most I would do and even then does it make sense to sign him when you already have albatross contracts in huby and Kadri and to a lesser extent weeger. The team has not made the playoffs in three years, and I think alot of posters would agree that this team making the playoffs anytime soon is probably not going to happen. Do you really want to double down on that and sign him, it doesn't make any sense. Sign your younger players, wolf, coronato long term, bring up some rookies, but don't invest in players that are clearly not the future of the team.

Maybe there is an opportunity to draft in the top 10, package those other first round picks with Rasmus, and maybe this team can get a 2nd line centre, a Brady Martin, Jake O Brien, Roger McQueen,

[Fan69]

Originally Posted by browntrout

6 years at 6.5, is the most I would do and even then does it make sense to sign him when you already have albatross contracts in huby and Kadri and to a lesser extent weeger. The team has not made the playoffs in three years, and I think alot of posters would agree that this team making the playoffs anytime soon is probably not going to happen. Do you really want to double down on that and sign him, it doesn't make any sense. Sign your younger players, wolf, coronato long term, bring up some rookies, but don't invest in players that are clearly not the future of the team.

Maybe there is an opportunity to draft in the top 10, package those other first round picks with Rasmus, and maybe this team can get a 2nd line centre, a Brady Martin, Jake O Brien, Roger McQueen,

I dont buy at all that they will be worse, not to mention kadri is outperforming his contract considerably, hardly an albatross.

Trade Rasmus, trade or offer sheet or sign a replacement for short term. With the addition of parehk the defence should be better than last year and a lot more mobile. Bahl has been found money and is a legit middle pair guy. Question is is can you get a younger developing top four to cushion the loss.

Even if kadri dropped from borderline top line player( which is where his play is at right now) to top six i fully expect better seasons from farrabee and frost, scoronato should be the same of better and sharangovich started to look like himself at the end of the year and zary, klapka and whoever else graduates the forward group should be better.

If conroy solidified the defence slightly, you make a trade for something that resembles a top line C i just dont see being worse next year. Its why i was in team tank until the last twenty games because i dont see us getting worse. Even if the forward group stayed the same i dont see huby or kadri suddenly dropping off a cliff.

Two trades signings offer sheets is all it will take to continue the growth of this team. Middle pair defenders a trade should be available somewhere. Yes a top line c is hard to come by but we have a plethora of prospects( especially if you get another first for Anderson) and what is front and center this year other than the Anderson situation which it sounds like has already been resolved, he is being traded.


Solidify the defence, get that top six center, and if the goaltending is comparable this is a playoff team.

Kadri and huby are contributing to the positive. Backs after this year is concerning. Weegar has been weegar.

These guys arent going anywhere besides maybe coalman but our geriatrics were not our problem at his year aside from backs regressing more on the scoresheet.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Not sure I've always trusted your eyes with your hit list of players.

LOL. I've been more right than wrong.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

I'm not saying that Anderson doesn't deserve some slack for the season he had, but if you factor in everything it still isn't good.

Elite TOI

Rasmus - 468
Weegar - 408

Quality of teammates, PDO, DFF%, DFF%RC, OZS%, GF% when I look at it all, Rasmus deserves an adjustment on his -38 but it's enough to say he was less terrible than -38.

There is a price point that makes sense to sign Rasmus, but for me that number is much lower than he will get

Don't disagree with any of that.

Just the plus/minus dogpile was over the top.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by InternationalVillager

Bingo is a Rasmus apologist. Even with stats blatantly telling an obvious story, he's impervious to them. This is what happens when you get too attached to players and their past performance that you let it cloud your judgement.

Yes- he's drafted by the organization. Yes- he's played a lot of games here. Yes- he's been a great Flames player for his tenure here.

Yes- he had a garbage season, was a main contributing factor to the team missing the playoffs.

Yes- he's likely getting traded in the offseason.

Yes- it's likely to be at a diminished value unless another team excludes the data from this season.

All of these can be true.

I literally started with "he is last in xGF60" which is a better stat than plus minus.

Labeling people is the best sign of a weak argument.

Well done.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

How is +/- lack of finishing when your Corsi is negative and xGF is negative.

It would be bad if he was 55% and we had a poor save %.

DO you have the stats to back up that Andersson was on the ice when the Flames created some of the most high danger chances but didn't score.

It's math man, that's it.

And it's chasing the wrong stat to be obsessed by plus/minus.

If your expected goals against and your actual goals against are very similar and your expected plus minus is only -2, then the issue is not scoring at the rate you're generating.

The xGF60 is an objective (but imperfect) stat that counts types of scoring chances and build expected goals based on historical averages. His expected was quite high but his actual quite low.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

LOL. I've been more right than wrong.

Are you using that same dubious eye test to decide right vs wrong?

[Iniggywetrust]

I don’t think he gets moved until GMCC has a chance to actually talk numbers, which is July 1st. They may have a good idea before then, but until they know they can’t make it work to keep him, they won’t be moving him.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Are you using that same dubious eye test to decide right vs wrong?

Here is the list. Where am I wrong?

Feaster
Butler
Bennett
Neal
Lindholm
Last 2 years of Giordano
Markstrom, Hanifin, Rasmus, Sutter after the Oilers series.
Dave D- Dickenson

[Bingo]

To my eye test ...

Bennett, Lindholm, Giordano, Markstrom, Hanifin, Andersson.

Just ribbing you though, you're allowed to have differing opinions. I'm just not as "baby with bathwater" in extremes.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Bingo

It's math man, that's it.

And it's chasing the wrong stat to be obsessed by plus/minus.

If your expected goals against and your actual goals against are very similar and your expected plus minus is only -2, then the issue is not scoring at the rate you're generating.

The xGF60 is an objective (but imperfect) stat that counts types of scoring chances and build expected goals based on historical averages. His expected was quite high but his actual quite low.

We will just disagree; I am not chasing +/- I just don't think it should discount when your +65 or -38. We rag on the Oiler players for 100 points being - players.

We can go back to the game threads and see many instances of Andersson what are you doing. The overall output matches him having a poor season, but that is ok as he tasked with a role that he is not suited for.

I think that is why a Parekh and Weegar top pair would be amazing. 2 guy who can skate and give each other outlets, and more importantly skate the puck out of the zone. This isn't a knock on Bahl he is going to be good on the 2nd or 3rd pair, I just think skating and puck handling is very important.

It is why Gio and Brodie clicked, and Brodie looked like he was replacement level with a bum like Hamonic.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

We will just disagree; I am not chasing +/- I just don't think it should discount when your +65 or -38. We rag on the Oiler players for 100 points being - players.

We can go back to the game threads and see many instances of Andersson what are you doing. The overall output matches him having a poor season, but that is ok as he tasked with a role that he is not suited for.

I think that is why a Parekh and Weegar top pair would be amazing. 2 guy who can skate and give each other outlets, and more importantly skate the puck out of the zone. This isn't a knock on Bahl he is going to be good on the 2nd or 3rd pair, I just think skating and puck handling is very important.

It is why Gio and Brodie clicked, and Brodie looked like he was replacement level with a bum like Hamonic.

I started into this conversation pointing out Andersson was the worst five on five player on the team defensively this year.

But the gap between that and the next player isn't the same as the plus minus

His plus minus is overblown by the team not finishing at the same rate with him on the ice.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I started into this conversation pointing out Andersson was the worst five on five player on the team defensively this year.

But the gap between that and the next player isn't the same as the plus minus

His plus minus is overblown by the team not finishing at the same rate with him on the ice.

Rooney lol

I may have missed that.

All the teams have access to the data and will look at the whole package. I have stated that many times that his value won't decrease because he was -38, but his value may not has high because overall his play has been tailing off the last 3 years. But his contract will have a lot of value for next season for a 2nd pairing player.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Rooney lol

I may have missed that.

All the teams have access to the data and will look at the whole package. I have stated that many times that his value won't decrease because he was -38, but his value may not has high because overall his play has been tailing off the last 3 years. But his contract will have a lot of value for next season for a 2nd pairing player.

I'm guessing teams have the drill down that will show two things

1) -38 was heavily impacted by offensive puck luck
2) Andersson had the most minutes against elite players
3) Andersson struggled without Bahl

and because of that have a more favourable book on him than the easy counting stats lookup.

[Tiger]

I think he will be extended but not 8 years. like 5 years.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Iniggywetrust

I don’t think he gets moved until GMCC has a chance to actually talk numbers, which is July 1st. They may have a good idea before then, but until they know they can’t make it work to keep him, they won’t be moving him.

Flames don’t need to wait to July 1st to know if they are aligned on numbers. That’d be a bigger factor for a trade at the draft

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Tiger

I think he will be extended but not 8 years. like 5 years.

Why’d he do that when he can get 7 from another team?

[ForeverFlameFan]

Originally Posted by Tiger

I think he will be extended but not 8 years. like 5 years.

This is the biggest contract of his career and the only time he can sign a max 7 (UFA)/8 year (with team) deal. No way he’s doing 5.

If he was 27 I would agree but he’s going to be 30 when that next contract kicks in. He’s likely ranging from 7.5-9m depending on multiple factors: his play, whoever acquires him and how desperate they are, or if he bets on himself to wait until UFA. I think Chychrun is the perfect comparable for him.