[Trade] Rantanen, Hall to CAR. Necas, Drury, 2nd, 4th to COL. CHI ret 50% of Rantanen + 3rd

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

You realize seldom and never are two different things?

Yes the Panthers say hi. Who else? Vegas has some. Maybe it's a trend that you can't be cowards and cup winners which is fine by me.

I want to see these work out because I'd rather see more teams take these big swings. Reading this board for the past few years I almost believe 28 teams should try to out tank each other for a top 5 pick because they're wasting jet fuel if you don't win the cup.

This all said Colorado needs to shake things up. They did win that one cup, but been moving down since. They have legitimate top players at their position in Makar and MacKinnon plus some good complementary pieces. But they're not winning like a top 4 team. They're sitting around 12th in league standings. With players like McKinnon and Makar playing like they are...that's not good enough.

I do, yes. Thanks for asking.

You are arguing that you want to see more of these trades, but you're also arguing that they rarely work.

I considered the last cup winner, and they were a good example. The cup winner before that? Also a good example.

Before that? Colorado - they seem to be willing to make these kinds of moves.

Before that? Tampa - not at all afraid to make big moves to continue to be competitive.

Before that? St Louis - O'Reilly trade put them over the top.

So I am really not sure what you're arguing, or why you were put off by by reply.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

You realize seldom and never are two different things?

Yes the Panthers say hi. Who else? Vegas has some. Maybe it's a trend that you can't be cowards and cup winners which is fine by me.

I want to see these work out because I'd rather see more teams take these big swings. Reading this board for the past few years I almost believe 28 teams should try to out tank each other for a top 5 pick because they're wasting jet fuel if you don't win the cup.

This all said Colorado needs to shake things up. They did win that one cup, but been moving down since. They have legitimate top players at their position in Makar and MacKinnon plus some good complementary pieces. But they're not winning like a top 4 team. They're sitting around 12th in league standings. With players like McKinnon and Makar playing like they are...that's not good enough.

They lost a lot of depth. That was a juggernaut team that just skated teams into the ice.

Kadri probably fixes a lot of that just by anchoring a 2nd line.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by bluejays

Totally read that wrong on my part. I thought he was referencing Rantanen. Re Marner, I think the same principle applies. When you play with great line mates, how much do they contribute to your point totals? It’s a debate that will always continue and vary by player. Marner is also a sure first liner. I just wonder if he goes to a different environment or if tying that much money on a few players (the Edmonton model) is a good decision or not.

I got that you had a mixup - it didn't affect your point. It's true - valuation of a Rantanen/Draisaitl/Jari Kurri type is difficult because of their relationship to a high producing centre.

Marner is a funny one because while he and Matthews produce together I don't really tie them together as much - maybe because Matthews is the shooter.

I think among wingers Rantanen is below Kucherov and Kaprizov. But I can't think of too many others.

[Enoch Root]

Draisaitl, Marner or Matthews (whichever is on the wing), maybe Panarin, Pastrnak, maybe Forsberg.

Put any of these guys in Rantanen's spot beside MacKinnon, and they are in that same, top 5 to 10 forwards conversation.

And going forward, Rantanen, Panarin and Pastrnak are going to be replaced by Bedard and others.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

But they won't be buying the last 5 years, they'll be buying the next 7 years.

And he is not going to be a top 5 or 10 player, in his 30s, playing in Carolina.

Edit: what Butterfly said.

Most of these guys continue to produce in their 30’s

Crosby is scoring at the same rate now that he did in his late 20’s.

Giroux has his 5th highest PPG when he was 35 and has continued to produce into his late 30’s

Kadri shows no discernible signs of dropping off

Pavelski produced at or above his career average until the age of 39

Now that Kucherov has reached his 30’s he is really taking off.

I would not be too worried about Rantanen, suspect he continued to produce well into his mid 30’s. It is just sorta how it is.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I think the Avs extended their 'window'. Locking up Rantanen would have forced them to make other moves, and probably brought them further away from winning a cup, not closer.


I like Necas in Colorado. I think he will fit in much better, and will probably re-sign for cheaper than Rantanen will. Colorado now has some draft capital to go and spend on players to shore-up their roster. They can go get Kadri, or they can go get Miller/Pettersson, or whomever else they want to fit-in with cap going the other way.


It is going to be interesting to see Rantanen in Carolina - interesting and weird.



I think the 'winner' of this trade will be measured in different ways to different people. Which team was able to re-sign their respective player (this season for Canes, next for Avs). How far did the team go in the playoffs? How are those players producing?



Unless a player flops big-time (which I really doubt), I think this is one of those trades in which you can make a solid argument for either side as to have won it.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Most of these guys continue to produce in their 30’s

Crosby is scoring at the same rate now that he did in his late 20’s.

Giroux has his 5th highest PPG when he was 35 and has continued to produce into his late 30’s

Kadri shows no discernible signs of dropping off

Pavelski produced at or above his career average until the age of 39

Now that Kucherov has reached his 30’s he is really taking off.

I would not be too worried about Rantanen, suspect he continued to produce well into his mid 30’s. It is just sorta how it is.

First of all, Crosby is not an example for anything, he is a unicorn.

But for everyone else, there is a difference between 'continuing to produce in their 30s' in the 60-80 range, vs being a 100+ point guy. Rantanen has been a 100+ point guy, on MacKinnon's wing, but assuming he will continue to be that going forward, for any more than maybe another 1 or 2 years, is folly.

Hardly anyone continues at 100+ points per year, much into their 30s.

To be clear, that is all fine - 'continuing to produce into their 30s' as a 70-80 point guy is still very valuable. The question is: is it worth $14M?

IMO, it is better to spend that $14M on younger guys that are growing towards being 70-80 point guys themselves (and maybe even 100 point guys, in the right situation)

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Most of these guys continue to produce in their 30’s

Crosby is scoring at the same rate now that he did in his late 20’s.

Giroux has his 5th highest PPG when he was 35 and has continued to produce into his late 30’s

Kadri shows no discernible signs of dropping off

Pavelski produced at or above his career average until the age of 39

Now that Kucherov has reached his 30’s he is really taking off.

I would not be too worried about Rantanen, suspect he continued to produce well into his mid 30’s. It is just sorta how it is.

People like Pavelski are the exception, not the rule. People like Kopitar and Crosby are rare in that they have incredibly graceful declines, but they are still worse now than their prime years.

No one is arguing they turn into pumpkins.

When your best days are behind you and you want to be paid a higher percentage of cap than when you were in their prime, count me out. I'd rather spend less money for a prime player.

Edit: What Enoch Root said

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by butterfly

People like Pavelski are the exception, not the rule. People like Kopitar and Crosby are rare in that they have incredibly graceful declines, but they are still worse now than their prime years.

No one is arguing they turn into pumpkins.

When your best days are behind you and you want to be paid a higher percentage of cap than when you were in their prime, count me out. I'd rather spend less money for a prime player.

Edit: What Enoch Root said

Bergeron would be an exception as well, he produced better in his 30’s. Stamkos had his best PPG season at the age of 32. Which players are the example of the rule?

Kopitar’s best season was

Age 30 - best season 1.12 PPG

There is literally no difference between his PPG average in his 20’s and now. In fact this season his PPG average at the age 37 is higher than it was in his 20’s.

I think we are up to 8 or 9 exceptions to the rule, I am curious which elite first line forwards are the rule.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Bergeron would be an exception as well, he produced better in his 30’s. Stamkos had his best PPG season at the age of 32. Which players are the example of the rule?

A composite aggregation of all NHL players that adjusts for survivorship bias (the only 36 year olds in the league are the ones still good enough to play).

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Bergeron would be an exception as well, he produced better in his 30’s. Stamkos had his best PPG season at the age of 32. Which players are the example of the rule?

Lots of guys have one really productive season in their 30s (just as lots have one in their 20s). Show us players consistently produce at the highest level, in their 30s - it is a list of first-ballot HOFers only. And it's a short one.

Bergeron never had an 80 point season

[delayedreflex]

Originally Posted by Calgary4LIfe

I think the Avs extended their 'window'. Locking up Rantanen would have forced them to make other moves, and probably brought them further away from winning a cup, not closer.


I like Necas in Colorado. I think he will fit in much better, and will probably re-sign for cheaper than Rantanen will. Colorado now has some draft capital to go and spend on players to shore-up their roster. They can go get Kadri, or they can go get Miller/Pettersson, or whomever else they want to fit-in with cap going the other way.


It is going to be interesting to see Rantanen in Carolina - interesting and weird.



I think the 'winner' of this trade will be measured in different ways to different people. Which team was able to re-sign their respective player (this season for Canes, next for Avs). How far did the team go in the playoffs? How are those players producing?



Unless a player flops big-time (which I really doubt), I think this is one of those trades in which you can make a solid argument for either side as to have won it.

Could even be a win-win trade. If Colorado wasn't going to sign Rantanen and Carolina wasn't going to sign Necas, why not trade and see how the other player fits. The main risk is that you're trading proven chemistry for unknown fit. I also don't hate this trade for Colorado as I agree it extends their window and provides them with a fair bit more flexibility for a short-term downgrade - and it's not like Necas is just some shmuck either, given he's on pace for a 92 point season.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Lots of guys have one really productive season in their 30s (just as lots have one in their 20s). Show us players are consistently produce at the highest level, in their 30s - it is a list of first-ballot HOFers only. And it's a short one.

Sure, that would be Ratanen who you just said you thought would not produce well into his 30’s. Do the Walker Duerher’s suck more in their 30’s, sure. But top line players do not drop off.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

I think we are up to 8 or 9 exceptions to the rule, I am curious which elite first line forwards are the rule.

We looked at this in the Draisaitl signing thread. I'll see if I can find it.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Sure, that would be Ratanen who you just said you thought would not produce well into his 30’s. Do the Walker Duerher’s suck more in their 30’s, sure. But top line players do not drop off.

What I said was: he likely won't produce at a 100 pt pace.

Can he continue for years as an 80 point guy? 100%

But for $14M, I want a 100+ point guy, and the chances of Rantanen doing that multiple times, is remote.

Gretzky did it 3 times, if you include his 29-30 year (which isn't really 'in his 30s').

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

I think we are up to 8 or 9 exceptions to the rule, I am curious which elite first line forwards are the rule.

We have one exception to the rule (rule being, do it more than once): Gretzky

Even Crosby only has one

[1991 Canadian]

Trade makes sense for all 3.

Carolina is definitely more cup desperate than Colorado, so I can see why they’d go for a superstar rental (and heck, might be able to re-sign him).

Colorado gets more cost controlled assets and depth.

And for Chicago, getting their third round pick back (arguably a 2nd round and a half pick given how high it will be) for Hall is a good get. Any time you can trade a rental for picks ahead of the deadline, you take it.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Draisaitl, Marner or Matthews (whichever is on the wing), maybe Panarin, Pastrnak, maybe Forsberg.

Put any of these guys in Rantanen's spot beside MacKinnon, and they are in that same, top 5 to 10 forwards conversation.

And going forward, Rantanen, Panarin and Pastrnak are going to be replaced by Bedard and others.

I considered all those guys but Rantanen I think is just a little better. Forsberg isn't close. I guess Tkachuk is on the list as well - he's just a different kind of player, Stone too.

That said I don't know that I pay any $14M. And I agree lots of wingers do well with Mackinnon theoretically. Hell I was joking but I wonder what Huberdeau does on Mackinnon's wing.

[butterfly]

Originally Posted by butterfly

We looked at this in the Draisaitl signing thread. I'll see if I can find it.

It was a long discussion but it started around here.

https://forum.calgarypuck.com/showth...196884&page=28

[Iniggywetrust]

Nm