Tank for Celebrini

[PuckDemon]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Of course they add up to 100, as all teams are involved.

Look at it this way.

Let’s say Calgary has 2 games to play, each with a 50% chance of winning.

Is there chance of winning at least one game 100%? Of course not.

To find out their chance of winning at least one game, you need to calculate their chance of losing both games. That ‘s .50x.50= 25%. .25-1.00. =.75. So they have a 75% chance of winning at least 1. In reality, we know they have a 25% chance of winning both or losing both, and a 50% chance of winning 1.

To figure out Calgary’s chance of picking at least in the top 3, you need to figure out their chances on not picking in the top 3 and subtracting from 100%. So you multiply the inverse of 6, 6.2 and 0,2 and subtract from 100%, getting about 12%.

I mean that for each row on the tankathon chart, if you add up all the values, they come out to 100%. Which makes sense because at each position, you have exactly 100% chance to draft between 1 and 32.

You multiply probabilities when you have separate events linked together. That's why that method works when you are talking about playing 2 games. The draft lottery is only one event.

Your calculation was for doing 3 draft lottery events. You calculated that there was an 88% probability that 1 of the drafts would be anything but 1st overall, 1 of the drafts would be anything but 2nd overall, and 1 of the drafts would be anything but 3rd overall. There is a 12% probability that this 3 drafts result would not occur.

I'm a bit rusty on probabilities math, so maybe someone else can confirm.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

IMO the only asset we have that could maybe get us another top 15 pick would be Andersson and maybe Markstrom if the Devils decide to offer their 2024 pick again, but I think it would be more Andersson.

Trade both and have three 1sts in the top 15.

[stemit14]

Originally Posted by Hackey

Trade both and have three 1sts in the top 15.

This would be a great move if possible IMO. Not sure if it is. There are only a select few teams that are likely picking on the top 15 of the draft that would be interested in Andersson or Markstrom. As it stands today this is the draft order (assuming no changes from the draft lottery):

1st San Jose
2nd Chicago
3rd Anaheim
4th Columbus
5th Ottawa
6th Arizona
7th Montreal
8th Pittsburgh
9th New Jersey
10th Buffalo
11th Calgary
12th Seattle
13th St. Louis
14th Washington
15th Minnesota

Of that list, the only team that I think would be interested in Markstrom is New Jersey. Debatable if they would be willing to trade their first round pick this year with how high it is. Maybe if the flames only want the pick and if they are willing to retain on Markstrom.

As for Andersson, the only teams on that list that I could see interested in acquiring him at this point would maybe be Columbus, Ottawa or New Jersey. Those are teams likely tired of losing and finishing outside the playoffs which may make them desperate enough to trade for him. Only problem is I don’t think Andersson could get you a 4th or 5th overall pick (Columbus and Ottawa, respectively)… so that really only leaves New Jersey. Who you would hopefully be able to get their pick for Markstrom. Does not leave many suitors left for Andersson in that list IMO.

More likely, the flames could find a trade partner in teams outside that list that are playoff teams. In those cases, it’s a pick outside the top half of the first round so it would hopefully include a good prospect as well.

[Flamesfan05]

I think the Flames can get the 8th pick
Hopefully some team took Iginla so they can get their future 1C or 1D

[1qqaaz]

My understanding is that the Flames have a chance at Celebrini as long as they their pick is in the top 11. It is currently 11th, so they would have a 3% chance of picking first and a 3% chance of picking second.

If the Flames were to have the 8th pick, they would have a 6% chance of picking first. But there would be a 17.5% chance that someone below the Flames passes them via the lottery.

As per MoneyPuck, the Flames have a 2.2% chance of making the playoffs. So they are now more likely to pick 1st than they are make the playoffs.

[Badgers Nose]

Let’s maximize this years pick and see what the kids can do. Give vets a break as much as possible. Any games I attend I’ll want to see the new kids, not guys I know already. A 6% chance at Celebrini but a double where we sit now. LOL

Then, I’d really like to see Anderson moved. I don’t think his next contract fits the needs of the team. Collect as many firsts as you can and embrace the rebuild. It’s 3-4 years of this before it gets better.

Next TDL Flames will have more trade bait too.

Plus we can get good NHLers as cap dumps along with picks and prospects.

[Samonadreau]

#7OA may have entered the chat as a possibility now.

[NewFan]

Yes, If Andersson wants the top 2 D money for 8 years, We should trade him for a good return.
It's little easier to find/sign/trade Andersson type player than find the real top franchise player which almost impossible to find other than draft him.

[Arsenal14]

Originally Posted by Samonadreau

#7OA may have entered the chat as a possibility now.

Looking at Montreal's schedule I just don't see it. They play us which is good but than that it's all pretty much contenders. Hard to see them gaining a lot of ground on us, especially as Calgary has a pretty soft schedule remaining.

Montreal's Remaining Games:
Playoff locks: BOS, @EDM, @VAN, @COL, CAR, FLA, TOR, @NYR
Contenders: PHI, TB, PHI, @NYI, @DET, DET
Bottom: @CGY, @SEA, @OTT

Calgary's Remaining Games:
Playoff locks: VGK, @VAN, LA, @WPG, EDM, @LA, @VAN
Contenders: WSH
Bottom: MTL, BUF, @CHI, @STL, ANA, @SJ, @ANA, ARI, SJ

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Arsenal14

Looking at Montreal's schedule I just don't see it. They play us which is good but than that it's all pretty much contenders. Hard to see them gaining a lot of ground on us, especially as Calgary has a pretty soft schedule remaining.

Montreal's Remaining Games:
Playoff locks: BOS, @EDM, @VAN, @COL, CAR, FLA, TOR, @NYR
Contenders: PHI, TB, PHI, @NYI, @DET, DET
Bottom: @CGY, @SEA, @OTT

Calgary's Remaining Games:
Playoff locks: VGK, @VAN, LA, @WPG, EDM, @LA, @VAN
Contenders: WSH
Bottom: MTL, BUF, @CHI, @STL, ANA, @SJ, @ANA, ARI, SJ

Haha

Now watch the Flames start beating teams like San Jose and Chicago

[Roof-Daddy]

The thought of getting Iggy Jr is cool but we really need a future 1C or 1D

It amazes me how a true elite 1C is virtually unattainable for this franchise for like 30+ years now.

[Tbull8]

I think if Lindstrom and Catton are gone, I would rather grab Tij as BPA than reach on the next center. I dont see 1C upside in Helenius, and then the drop off to Boisvert is pretty massive imo. Obviously a 1D could be good too, but if BPA is a winger, so be it. Realistically our 1C is going to come from a higher pick in 2025 or 2026.

Misa, Hagens, McQueen next year all have that potential to be a 1C in the top 5

[Roof-Daddy]

So far tonight:

Sabres won
Sens beat the BJ's but it was a 3 pointer
Penguins won
Habs lost but got a point
Yotes won
Devils are winning
Wild are winning

[browntrout]

Man I know the flames need a defenceman or center, but getting tig Iginla would be absolutely huge for this organization, if they can draft him by trading markstrom away to new jersey, even if Calgary has to throw in a second and retain salary to get that first round pick, that would be a great PR day for Calgary, something Murray Edwards might sign off on. If they can nab Iggy and one of the big defenceman, Conroy has set up us real nice moving forward

[browntrout]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

The thought of getting Iggy Jr is cool but we really need a future 1C or 1D

It amazes me how a true elite 1C is virtually unattainable for this franchise for like 30+ years now.

I think it will happen soon, maybe they get celebrini or someone better in 2025,26,27

They are overdue to get some lady luck, looking forward to it, been a fan a long time, gonna be awesome when it happens

[browntrout]

Would be out of this world if Backlund ends up playing with both Iggy and his son Tig on the same team....I would like to see an NHL stat on that one.

[browntrout]

Would his nickname be tiggy

[TheIronMaiden]

I know that a high draft pick is optimal asset development, but this team is just too scrappy. I don't want to watch them bottom out. I want them to know that hard work wins.

[Wastedyouth]

Flames gonna pick Tij at 14th.

It is written.

[bigrangy]

12 games left. In 10th right now.

2 points up on Buffalo

1 point back of Pit

2 points back of Seattle

The Flames will have the ROW tiebreaker on PIT/SEA so they’ll need to be beat clean.

There’s an outside shot of catching Montreal/Ottawa who are 7 points ahead right now, but it’s looking like best case 8th. Worst case is probably ~13th.