Post Mortem : What happens now?

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

If Lucic retires after collecting his $3m bonus, does the bonus count against the cap?

Nope. He's not a 35+ contract nor a cap recapture contract. If he retires he does not count against the cap.

[Roof-Daddy]

Amazing that anybody would want to get rid of Hanifin just to get rid of him, because he had a rough series.

And this is coming from someone who is not a big fan of him.

The Flames D was already greater than the sum of it's parts, and now they will likely have to find a way to improve despite the impending loss of Zadarov, Gudbranson and likely Tanev for a few months.

And you want to remove Hanifin as well? Ridiculous idea, unless you:

1. Have an upgrade incoming to replace him (good luck with that)
2. Want a rebuild (not happening, sorry)

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

Nope. He's not a 35+ contract nor a cap recapture contract. If he retires he does not count against the cap.

But I'd be surprised if he could keep the money. Its payment towards the 2022-2023 season which he would be walking away from.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

This is a comment I see a lot that I don't really understand.
When fans decide a team should get rid of a player that just isn't good enough, they say it's time to sell high. How is it selling high if the other teams are likely more aware of a players problems than the fans are?

I think that when fans believe it's time to sell high, it's too late to do so.

Fans tend to overreact to a small sample size which scouts and other teams likely do not put an over abundance of stock into.

Hanifin played all situations on a team that finished 3rd for goals against while also shattering a career high in points by getting 48 while being only 25 and signed for 2 more years at $4.95M.

It is fairly silly for Flames fans to suggest trading him at all. The team is going to attempt to sign 2 wingers who will command $10M each or more on the open market. One way that makes sense in a flat cap world is having a blueline where no one makes even a $5M cap hit for 2 more years.


Hanifin+Anderson combined have a cap hit of 9.35M which is 100k more than Darnell Nurse’s cap hit next year. I don’t see the Flames upgrading on Hanifin while saving money to keep their star free agents.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

But I'd be surprised if he could keep the money. Its payment towards the 2022-2023 season which he would be walking away from.

Ignoring the retention, the Flames would have paid Lucic 15M after his bonus (3M, 1M+3M, 2.5M+2.5M, 3M) while incurring an 18M cap hit (6Mx3). Since they suffered a bigger cap hit than they paid, no issue as far as I can tell.

However, like Nashville with Weber (pre-LTIR), and Luongo with Vancouver (actually happened), it's the Oilers who received the cap-advantage and I'm not seeing anything to disway me from assuming it's not them on the hook for any cap advantage. The only issue is that, as far as I can recall, it was never brought up in the trade discussion.

Upon that Player's failure to play in the League by reason
of retirement, "defection" from the NHL or otherwise (but
not death) (such that he is not playing and is not receiving
Salary pursuant to his Long-Term Contract) (assuming it is
prior to the conclusion of the Long-Term Contract), the
difference between the sum of the Actual Salary and
Bonuses received by that Player under that SPC and the
sum of the Averaged Amounts charged against the Club's
Averaged Club Salary under that SPC shall be calculated as
follows: ...

In the event of a "bona-fide" mid-season
retirement, the Cap Advantage Recapture as calculated
above shall be charged against the Club's Averaged Club
Salary beginning in the League Year following the Player's
retirement (provided, however, that in the event such
"bona-fide" mid-season retirement occurs in the final League Year of an SPC, any Cap Advantage Recapture
charge shall be included in the Club's Averaged Club
Salary in the following League Year). In such cases, there
shall be no charge against the Club's Averaged Club Salary
for the remainder of the League Year in which the Player
retires. The parties shall discuss in good faith the treatment
of a Cap Advantage Recapture charge in the case of a
retirement "orchestrated" for the sole purpose of delaying
the Cap Advantage Recapture charge to the following
League Year, and failing agreement, shall arbitrate the
issue.

Notwithstanding the provisions of Sections 50.5(d)(ii)(A)
and (B), in the event that any such Long-Term Contract is
Assigned during its term, each Club for which the Player
plays under the terms of that Long-Term Contract shall be
subject to being charged with any and all "Cap Advantage
Recapture" amounts it receives pursuant to that Long-Term
Contract, provided, however, that if a Club Traded a Long Term Contract prior to the execution of this Agreement
(including any binding Memorandum of Understanding)
under which it gained a "cap advantage," the "Cap
Advantage Recapture" shall not apply to that Club for that
Long-Term Contract. For purposes of clarity, the Club to
whom such Long-Term Contract was Assigned after the
execution of this Agreement (including any binding Memorandum of Understanding) shall be subject to the Cap
Advantage Recapture (if any).

Using the example above, assume the Player is Traded
from Club X to Club Y on July 1, 2012 (after Year 2), and then retires
after Year 4. In each of Years 5, 6 and 7, Club Y would be charged $1.4
million for a total Cap Advantage Recapture of $4.2 million (i.e., the total
"Cap Advantage" over Years 3 and 4 of the SPC -- $2.2 million in Year 3
and $2 million in Year 4). Even though Club X received a "Cap
Advantage" in Years 1 and 2, because it Traded the SPC before the
execution of this Agreement, it shall not be subject to any Cap Advantage
Recapture for that SPC.

So Club X is the Oilers here, but since they traded after the agreement (2013 and traded in 2019), they should be on the hook for the cap advantage.

EDIT: Long-term contracts were defined as both signed for 6 years and before the agreement (2013), so Lucic's contract doesn't qualify. Which is why the Oilers aren't on the hook for cap advantage. There is still nothing to suggest that the Flames would be on any hook.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

But I'd be surprised if he could keep the money. Its payment towards the 2022-2023 season which he would be walking away from.

That's why signing bonuses are attractive though and affect buyout calculations. I haven't been able to find anything that's says the bonus would need to repaid or count against the cap. For the most part teams wouldn't be adding signing bonuses with the hopes players retire.

[Jore]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Amazing that anybody would want to get rid of Hanifin just to get rid of him, because he had a rough series.

And this is coming from someone who is not a big fan of him.

The Flames D was already greater than the sum of it's parts, and now they will likely have to find a way to improve despite the impending loss of Zadarov, Gudbranson and likely Tanev for a few months.

And you want to remove Hanifin as well? Ridiculous idea, unless you:

1. Have an upgrade incoming to replace him (good luck with that)
2. Want a rebuild (not happening, sorry)

No one wants to get rid of Hanifin "just to get rid of him." The proposition is that his perceived value around the league outweighs his value on the ice, so a trade of Hanifin for assets plus the value that a replacement player would bring in surpasses the status quo.

This is a league where Toews was traded for a 2nd. Avs had no problem moving on from Zadorov or Barrie, St. Louis let their captain and #1 D walk a year after a cup. Why is it sacrilegious to suggest that Hanifin could/should be improved on? How else is the defense supposed to improve? Keep the same top 4 and hope Valimaki blows the doors off?

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

But I'd be surprised if he could keep the money. Its payment towards the 2022-2023 season which he would be walking away from.

Shipachyov and Heatley both had their teams file greivance to receive their bonus back. In Heatley's case it was because he refused the trade to the Oilers before his bonus had kicked in, for Ship it was because he played for like 3 games before they wanted to mutual terminate contract so he could go to the KHL. They reached agreements. But otherwise, as far as I can tell, depending on his contract conditions it's likely Lucic is paid 3M on July 1st and then that's that.

[GullFoss]

If Lucic retires after collecting his $3m signing bonus and it doesnt count against the cap, the flames arent going to have much trouble resigning and keeping Johnny, Tkachuk, Kylington and Mangiapane. They also wouldnt have to buy out Monahan.

They'd also be in a situation where they don't have a single "bad" contract. That in and of itself should convince Tkachuk and Johnny to come back, as it suggests the team will be positioned to contend for as long as Johnny and Tkachuk are playing at a high level.

Johnny-lindholm-tkachuk
Mangiapane-Monny-Coleman
Dube-Backlund-Taffoli
Pelletier-Ruzicka-Jarnkrok
Lewis

Hanifin-andersson
Tanev-Kylington
Valimaki-Mackey

This would be a team that is genuinely 12 forwards deep with a high quality top-6. The only knock would be no "generational quality" player. But there's enough talent to overcome that by committee.

[Toonage]

Not sure at what price you'd expect Gaudreau & Tkachuk back at let alone Kylington & Mangiapane or even Jarnkrok if they keep Monahan

[cannon7]

Sutter was rolling the D pairs all season. In the Oilers series everything pretty much changed there with the Tanev injury. As such, both the Hanifin-Andersson and Zadorov-Gudbranson pairs were overused and ultimately exposed. This underscores how important Tanev was to this D corps, especially how much he carried Kylington. Even though Sutter was rolling these pairs, it doesn't mean it was a well-rounded group, since one injury threw everything in disarray.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by cannon7

Sutter was rolling the D pairs all season. In the Oilers series everything pretty much changed there with the Tanev injury. As such, both the Hanifin-Andersson and Zadorov-Gudbranson pairs were overused and ultimately exposed. This underscores how important Tanev was to this D corps, especially how much he carried Kylington. Even though Sutter was rolling these pairs, it doesn't mean it was a well-rounded group, since one injury threw everything in disarray.

Yes, if you overplay Handersson and Zadbranson against the Oiler top line, eventually they will get beaten even if they play them well most of the time. Without Tanev, Kylington dropped to bottom ice time.

Speaking of selling high maybe this is the time to trade Kylington. He looked great with Tanev, but his November stats created his career season and he was pretty ordinary offensive wise outside of that month.

[Jiffy Loob]

I loved what Steinberg said on Flames Talk yesterday about Mangiapane. No matter if/when you get can Gaudreau or Tkachuk signed, you get a deal done with him. Dude embodies the identity of this team.

The eighth year should secure Gaudreau for us and I speculate a total of $89M. Can also buy the idea that we sign Chucky for shorter term, especially considering his age and desire to cash in a second time down the road.

I believe Zadorov gets paid elsewhere, but Guddy should be a Flame from here on out, and I think the contract will be viewed as fair from both perspectives. Not sure what to do with Kylington (arb right issues?), but I thought our team suffered without his speed and breakout ability when he was injured. That said, it is truly amazing how often he loses or catches edges - the centrifugal force and Kylington are sometimes not friends.

It was also interesting to hear Sutter's comments at the year end presser about the conditioning of the players. So grateful to have Big D as our head coach.

[Harry Lime]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Yes, if you overplay Handersson and Zadbranson against the Oiler top line, eventually they will get beaten even if they play them well most of the time. Without Tanev, Kylington dropped to bottom ice time.

Speaking of selling high maybe this is the time to trade Kylington. He looked great with Tanev, but his November stats created his career season and he was pretty ordinary offensive wise outside of that month.

Sutter probably told him to tone it down and learn defense at the NHL level. I could see a pretty steady progression with Kylington over the next couple of years, as Sutter is more comfortable activating Kylington on the offensive side.

I wonder if Kylington's struggles without Tanev were more about Kylington's inability to cover for Stone than anything that Kylington was doing wrong. Having a partner (Tanev) that never makes mistakes must be great for the growth of a young player.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

Sutter probably told him to tone it down and learn defense at the NHL level. I could see a pretty steady progression with Kylington over the next couple of years, as Sutter is more comfortable activating Kylington on the offensive side.

I wonder if Kylington's struggles without Tanev were more about Kylington's inability to cover for Stone than anything that Kylington was doing wrong. Having a partner (Tanev) that never makes mistakes must be great for the growth of a young player.

I don't think it was an inability to cover for Stone. Kylington made a lot of unforced errors.

[BlindMilwaukee]

^ Agreed. OK needs to get stronger on his skates.

[yourbestfriend]

I think Zadorov is as good as gone. Liked him a lot, but just can't afford the asking price.
I'd give Gudbranson the following contract:
$3M
$2M
$2M
AAV $2.3M
Love what he brought to the team: big, physical, can skate, steady and solid on the PK. Then have Valimaki/Mackey compete for Zadorov's spot.

Regarding Hanifin, if we trade him, we need to replace his 20min/night against the other teams top players, PP and PK time at less than $5M. It's just not happening with the way the Flames are structured. He's got his flaws, but as an overall package, he'd be very hard to replace.

[GS Skier]

Watching some of the Colorado series clearly skating and out right speed are factors and the league IS faster than when Sutter won cups in LA. I think we underestimate the "drag racing" aspect of it though. First three steps are just as important as speed. It's what that SOB McDavid does better than anyone else.

Backlund
Gaudreau
Coleman
Dube
Kjillington

Am I wrong are these 5 not the fastest guys on this club as its currently constructed? Does the current western semi final point to definitely NOT letting Dube or Kjillington go or trading them?

Hanafin, Andersson, Lindholm, Mangiapane are all very good and "fast enough"?

What does it mean for the future when Takachuk's skating is average at best however cllearly he kept up fine all year with Guadreau and Lindholm.

Just tossing out the notion that even Sutter has to evolve and recognize the game is just plain a notch faster today than it was a decade ago. I think he and Treliving both get it as they added Coleman. I won't judge Toffoli yet as his conditioning while in Montreal was an issue when he got here. Either way he's seems about Tkachuks skating level, he's smart, great shot but isn't the guy you want chasing down an opponent on a break a way. (You want Kjillington who DID catch a few guys last year)

[Major Major]

Hanifin took a big step this year. There is nothing saying he won't take another one.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by GullFoss

If Lucic retires after collecting his $3m signing bonus and it doesnt count against the cap, the flames arent going to have much trouble resigning and keeping Johnny, Tkachuk, Kylington and Mangiapane. They also wouldnt have to buy out Monahan.

They'd also be in a situation where they don't have a single "bad" contract. That in and of itself should convince Tkachuk and Johnny to come back, as it suggests the team will be positioned to contend for as long as Johnny and Tkachuk are playing at a high level.

Johnny-lindholm-tkachuk
Mangiapane-Monny-Coleman
Dube-Backlund-Taffoli
Pelletier-Ruzicka-Jarnkrok
Lewis

Hanifin-andersson
Tanev-Kylington
Valimaki-Mackey

This would be a team that is genuinely 12 forwards deep with a high quality top-6. The only knock would be no "generational quality" player. But there's enough talent to overcome that by committee.

Monhan at 2C isn’t taking you anywhere in my mind. I think his best before date has past.

I think one of Gudbranson or Zadorov will still be around.