2021 NFL off season thread

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Ducay

He's at most the second/third best QB that will be on the market this off-season and people are acting like this is the McDavid sweepstakes. I know everyone is eating up the Texans drama but this kid has been mediocre at best

Okay, Skip Bayless.

[Sainters7]

Originally Posted by rubecube

It's not really wizardry. It's just basic restructuring/extending and kicking the can down the road to a future date. Roseman has been doing it with the Eagles for years.

It's not a big deal if you draft well and have good core of players locked in. The problem comes when those players age/decline and there's nothing waiting in the pipeline because it can be hard to jettison those players to get significant relief.

Eventually you have to take your lumps and do a rebuild or at least retool where you're not going to be competitive for a couple of years, but as long as you have a decent window open, it's not super difficult to maneuver.

The big problem for teams like the Eagles and Rams is they bet on the wrong players and (in the Eagles' case) have drafted poorly/failed to develop their younger players.

Yeah exactly. This team is still living off that killer 2017 Draft (and to a lesser extent, 2016), but they haven't had a good draft since then. Their 2020 draft was a straight up tire fire. And trading 2 first rounders to move up to snag the inconsistent, oft-injured DE Marcus Davenport in 2018 looks like a colossal error. Stuff like that is how your team erodes away from being a contender.

I also think the plan by Loomis was assuming the cap would keep increasing every year, so by the time Brees retired and you have to pay the piper and take that hit, that the cap would be large enough where Saints could just absorb it and be ok. But of course Covid changed all of that. Going to be a wild off-season, that's for sure.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I mean it kinda is the McDavid sweepstakes, even up to the Jets being the Oilers in this case. When has a top 5 QB in the league, in his prime, ever been available? There should be at least 20 GMs calling on him and if not they are in derelict of their duty.

I think Watson is really good but I think people are getting a little carried away here. He's not Mahomes special as he eclipsed 30 TD's passing for the first time in his 4th season and just led his current team to a 4 win season. I think he's very good but he's more Dak Prescott than Brady, Mahomes, Rodgers IMO. Very good QB that you can win with only if you surround him with a lot of talent.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I mean if Bill O'Brien had even 1% more balls (or you know 99% more competency) the Texans probably make the Super Bowl last year instead of the Chiefs. Deshaun has the highest completion % of all-time, the second highest QB rating of all-time behind Mahomes, and that's playing for a dumpster fire organization. And his extension makes his cap hits below market for the next few years. As I said unless you have Mahomes or Rodgers or one of the elite rookie prospects Deshaun is a clear upgrade.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I mean if Bill O'Brien had even 1% more balls (or you know 99% more competency) the Texans probably make the Super Bowl last year instead of the Chiefs. Deshaun has the highest completion % of all-time, the second highest QB rating of all-time behind Mahomes, and that's playing for a dumpster fire organization. And his extension makes his cap hits below market for the next few years. As I said unless you have Mahomes or Rodgers or one of the elite rookie prospects Deshaun is a clear upgrade.

LOL you are going to tout completion percentage in an era where even Mitch Trubisky can complete 67% of his passes? He's really good but I don't think the Seahawks, Bills, or Cowboys would be better with him after surrendering all the draft capital. I don't even know if a team like the Raiders would be better off giving up multiple 1st round picks (badly needed to upgrade the defense) for him as they already have a top 10 offense and just can't stop anyone from scoring and Watson won't help that. Carr won four more games than Watson this season despite being saddled with a defense that gave up more points per game than the Texans defense. He's not Mahomes good where he can carry a team with a bad defense and he's already had two ACL tears and the next one may render him a pocket passer which won't end well for him.

[rubecube]

Did someone seriously trot out QB wins as a more useful stat than completion percentage?

[Senator Clay Davis]

Of course the draft capital cost makes it more challenging to justify trading for him. If he were a UFA every single team outside of like six or so would be trying to sign him (including the Raiders). As we all know wins are a team stat, otherwise you would have to concede that Tannehill and Wentz are far better than Carr, and you don't believe that (and neither do I lol). And I mean Deshaun has two division titles sandwiched between a season ending injury and the Texans spending a season converting into a Bible Camp. It's not like he doesn't win, and he's won overcoming an incompetent organization and a piss poor coach.

Originally Posted by rubecube

Did someone seriously trot out QB wins as a more useful stat than completion percentage?

Especially since Trubisky throws nothing but underneath passes and screens. Deshaun has the furthest average pass distance downfield in the league, including Mahomes.

[darockwilder]

Pettine is out!

[Yoho]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1355234085870956553

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

I mean if Bill O'Brien had even 1% more balls (or you know 99% more competency) the Texans probably make the Super Bowl last year instead of the Chiefs. Deshaun has the highest completion % of all-time, the second highest QB rating of all-time behind Mahomes, and that's playing for a dumpster fire organization. And his extension makes his cap hits below market for the next few years. As I said unless you have Mahomes or Rodgers or one of the elite rookie prospects Deshaun is a clear upgrade.

You’re being a little revisionist here, or maybe just trying to overstate for effect. Texans lost to the Chiefs last year by 20 points and had blown their lead by halftime. That’s not a game that comes down to a 1% coaches decision.

But Watson showed how good a QB he is this year and can’t be faulted for the teams record. But he’s not perfect, still has a tendency to hold the ball too long.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Did someone seriously trot out QB wins as a more useful stat than completion percentage?

You don't make the playoffs based on QB completion percentage rube. Wins are all that count, just ask Troy Aikman who's in the HOF despite very mediocre stats.

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by GirlySports

Since Watson holds a no-trade clause, that sounds like he can really turn the screws if he wanted to. Because if I were him, I’d push that a team, say the Jets, send no more than one 1st-rounder or he’s blocking it. That way, he can move to the Jets without the future cupboard being bare. I’d be totally for Watson screwing Houston considering the way they tore down everything around him.

I don't know the intricacies of NTC's but could he actually do that? Why would a player have any control of what the terms of the trade was? I assumed all they would know is which team was in play, they would not know the terms of the deal.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

You don't make the playoffs based on QB completion percentage rube. Wins are all that count, just ask Troy Aikman who's in the HOF despite very mediocre stats.

So you're saying Carson Wentz is a better QB than Derek Carr then? He has a much higher winning percentage.

[troutman]

Originally Posted by Yoho

https://twitter.com/user/status/1355234085870956553

Less Thinking!

[ResAlien]

Lol wow. Two firsts, a third, and Goff for Stafford. Thats a lot of value for Matthew.

Edit: I would have to guess one of those firsts was for taking Goff

[SuperMatt18]

Goff is still a serviceable QB that looked like he could be elite just 2 seasons ago.

I’ll take the 26 year old, 2 firsts, and a 3rd for the 32 year old every day of the week.

Especially since I don’t think their performance was that different last offseason.

[KelVarnsen]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1355712045006655490

[Senator Clay Davis]

I'm not sure who wins here. Getting Stafford for the Goff contract is a hell of a win because that Goff contract is brutal, but it shows how brutal it was that it cost three premium picks to move it. Stafford is definitely better than Goff, but all it takes for this trade to be a disaster for the Rams is Stafford getting hurt and then they might be giving up a top 5 pick. This is also fascinating purely from a can you really win a Super Bowl after mortgaging seven (!!!) first round picks in a row.

[calgarygeologist]

Seems like a huge over payment for an aging QB. Sure Stafford is better than Goff but how much can you expect from Stafford going forward? Can you get more than 2, maybe 3 years out of him?

[transplant99]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1355742643591016451