2017 Hurricane Season

[driveway]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

It seems like the forecasting has improved substantially in the last 5-10 years. It used to seem like every 3 hour forecast had a substantially different path, and it made for lots of people preparing for storms that never came, and would start to get complacent about preparations with to much "crying wolf". Harvey and Irma (so far) have been following their forecast pretty tightly, and there haven't been many changes from forecast to forecast.

Here's a great article about the forecasting of Hurricane Harvey and which forecasting models outperformed which others: https://arstechnica.com/science/2017...formed-humans/

This chart shows the degree of error of various models. The official NOAA forecast is the bright pink bar at the right of each column.

Spoiler!

Within 12 hours, pretty much everyone gets the location of the storm within 50 km of where it actually is. However, you get 72 hours out and the official forecast was off by 150km. The NOAA track right now looks like it goes right through Key Largo and Homestead, but 150km either way could put Irma on either side of the peninsula.

[wittynickname]

Originally Posted by missdpuck

In my area of South Florida , we're used to these storms missing us at the last minute.

So a lot of us are still in some form of disbelief or denial. The horror isn't sinking in.

That being said, I have never seen so many people preparing so well.

No one's waiting till the last minute with this one.

That's a really awesome sign .


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I think it's a combination of having the visuals of Harvey fresh in mind and seeing footage of the destruction that Irma has left in her wake already. When you see a reinforced steel cell tower snapped in half, you realize that this storm is not playing around.

Originally Posted by OldDutch

In my most unscientific prairie boy opinion, I was swimming in Key Biscayne on Sunday and it was the warmest water I have ever swam in. Not bath but warm bath temp. Water felt warmer than the ocean in Thailand or Malaysia.

The water down there is very warm right now. The locals were commenting at how nice it was.

The waters down there are as warm as you'll get for Atlantic storms outside of the Gulf of Mexico. There's very little shear, very little in the way of landmass, and incredibly warm waters for her to feed on. Irma has the potential to hit her highest strength in the next 12-24 hours, which is terrifying to think of. If this hits the Keys, they're toast.

[Acey]

Originally Posted by Tinordi

Hurricane Andrew vs Hurricane Irma

What's interesting is that if you didn't look at a map, it'd be fair to assume they're similar storms:

Andrew lowest pressure: 27.23 inHg
Irma lowest pressure: 27.23 inHg

Andrew highest wind: 175 mph
Irma highest wind: 185 mph

[SportsJunky]

We've got meetings in Fort Lauderdale in 10 days. Right across the street from the beach. I just don't see this happening.

[missdpuck]

Wonder how the Cali family is doing?

While on the road today I was wondering how many things I pass every day will still be there after the weekend.

Very sad.
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[puffnstuff]

missdpuck Wonder how the Cali family is doing?

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Baby Margot is here! 6 lbs. 5 ozs. Happy, healthy, adorable. Mom was a champ through the labour and is doing great now, recovering well.

In case you're worried about us, we were told that it was extremely unlikely we would be discharged before Saturday night, and in that case, the entire hospital would be on lockdown and they wouldn't discharge us into dangerous conditions. Sounds like we'll be here for the duration of the storm, which is good news because we have care for the baby here, and they have generators in case the power goes out. The hospital is built strong enough to deal with the storm, so there's no worries there.

From the last page. Id say pretty well.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Irma is so strong she's rocking seismometers.

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/wo...-a7931286.html

[missdpuck]

Oops

[missdpuck]

Originally Posted by puffnstuff

missdpuck Wonder how the Cali family is doing?









From the last page. Id say pretty well.

Thank you!

Congrats to my neighbors a few towns south!

I didn't think they'd send you guys back out into the cruel world right away.

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[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Baby Margot is here! 6 lbs. 5 ozs. Happy, healthy, adorable. Mom was a champ through the labour and is doing great now, recovering well.

In case you're worried about us, we were told that it was extremely unlikely we would be discharged before Saturday night, and in that case, the entire hospital would be on lockdown and they wouldn't discharge us into dangerous conditions. Sounds like we'll be here for the duration of the storm, which is good news because we have care for the baby here, and they have generators in case the power goes out. The hospital is built strong enough to deal with the storm, so there's no worries there.

Great to hear dude. Congrats and what a story little Margot will have to tell when she gets older. Hopefully you guys get some sort of private room and its a couple floors off the ground!

[missdpuck]

Oops again.

Not stressed by the thought of losing everything or anything like that...

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by missdpuck

Oops again.

Not stressed by the thought of losing everything or anything like that...

Have you got a solid/safe place to stay or are you getting out of dodge as well?

[missdpuck]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Have you got a solid/safe place to stay or are you getting out of dodge as well?

I'm going up to western Palm Beach Gardens.

I live in eastern Lake Worth; almost in West Palm. Sure miss my old place in Delray!

I'm by the intracoastal but my area is not in an evacuation zone at the moment because we're on a ridge.

My house is probably on the highest point in the neighborhood.

It's also an old school cbs house as typical of the 50s Florida mid century houses.

I've got impact windows but I worry about my front door. Keep procrastinating about getting a better one- fiberglass, steel reinforced or whatever.

It may be a mistake to think going further west is safer, as you already know.

But at least I'll be with friends.

Thinking about the CaliPantherFan family and their home helps keep
me from dwelling on my situation.

Also I have a single mom friend with a special needs daughter who plans to ride it out in her Boynton home .

A guy from work is going to check on them.


Btw , transplant, I always enjoy and appreciate your posts because , as the saying goes you know of which you speak!


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[missdpuck]

Originally Posted by Mazrim

That's gotta be frustrating. How do you even answer that? "Oh weird, seems like everyone is getting sick right before the hurricane. What a coincidence!"

District finally told us we are off Friday and Saturday, pending further notice.

Today we were really fed up. Some people don't have the time or opportunity to get gas for their personal vehicles.

There is a service that comes to gas up our postal vehicles, why can't we make arrangements with them somehow for our personal vehicles?

We found out that city and state employees can get gas from their employers.

We noticed the gas guys are high in the fumes, lol.

Also, what if we need to evacuate or secure our homes? How the heck do you do that when you're delivering junk mail and Amazon?

Oh, for the days when that was a river, jungle, basin, rainforest.


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[KootenayFlamesFan]

Hope you Floridians are safe through the next few days.

Congrats on the little girl Cali!

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by missdpuck

I'm going up to western Palm Beach Gardens.

I live in eastern Lake Worth; almost in West Palm. Sure miss my old place in Delray!

I'm by the intracoastal but my area is not in an evacuation zone at the moment because we're on a ridge.

My house is probably on the highest point in the neighborhood.

It's also an old school cbs house as typical of the 50s Florida mid century houses.

I've got impact windows but I worry about my front door. Keep procrastinating about getting a better one- fiberglass, steel reinforced or whatever.

It may be a mistake to think going further west is safer, as you already know.

But at least I'll be with friends.

Thinking about the CaliPantherFan family and their home helps keep
me from dwelling on my situation.

Also I have a single mom friend with a special needs daughter who plans to ride it out in her Boynton home .

A guy from work is going to check on them.


Btw , transplant, I always enjoy and appreciate your posts because , as the saying goes you know of which you speak!


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Hopefully you have someone to ride it out with! Being through a couple of them, I cannot imagine being alone....I would have lost my mind (though many here would argue that ship sailed long ago)

Stay safe and keep the CP community appraised when you can.

[transplant99]

Just saw where Jose has turned itself into a Cat 4 storm. Conditions are absolutely perfect for these things right now....could be a long month or so.

[Johnny Makarov]

After seeing that crazy traffic evacuating Florida, imagine if they evacuated Houston? That would have been insane.

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

After seeing that crazy traffic evacuating Florida, imagine if they evacuated Houston? That would have been insane.

They did before with Ike and Rita to some extent and I think that factored into why the did not this time around for Harvey.

http://www.chron.com/news/houston-te...al-6521994.php

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Effect...e_Ike_in_Texas

[Flash Walken]

Margot Stormborn