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View Poll Results: What will Bouma get on a 1 year deal from the arbitrator (or before ruling)?
1.5 2 0.64%
1.6 2 0.64%
1.7 9 2.88%
1.8 42 13.42%
1.9 61 19.49%
2.0 75 23.96%
2.1 52 16.61%
2.2 42 13.42%
2.3 16 5.11%
2.4 5 1.60%
2.5 7 2.24%
Voters: 313. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 07-21-2015, 10:06 AM   #301
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Strange Brew View Post
I am certain the stumbling block on Bouma is in trying to negotiate a longer term deal. If both sides were Ok with one year, a deal would be done by now. If there is no deal before the arbitration hearing I believe Flames will agree to a one year deal relatively close to what Bouma camp is asking for since effect on this years cap is not too big a deal.

In 2016/17 Flames currently only have 6 NHL forwards under contract and only one (Bennett) is on a contract that repesents exceptional value for the team. The rest are at full fair market value deals or in the case of Raymond, over FMV.

We have $22 million tied up in 5 defencemen with our best Dman yet to sign.

Zero NHL goalies under contract.

In two years Flames will have gone from one of the lowest payrolls in the league to being right up against the cap. That is about 12 contracts Treliving needs to get done in next 12 months.
Once we give Bouma a one year contract at $2.5M it won't be going down. I do think $2M for 3 years would be fair though.

Looking at our cap situation in 2016/17, yeah we'll be up against the cap.

Frolic - 4.3M
Hudler - 5.0M this is just a guess and if we don't sign him, it will solve a lot of problems.
Jones - gone
Backlund - 3.575M
Raymond - 3.15M I think I might give up a draft pick to unload him. He isn't terrible but overpriced.
Stajan - 3.125M possible trade bait
Colborne - 1.5M guesstimate
Bollig - 1.25M not overpriced but wouldn't miss him
Gaudreau - 6M guesstimate
Monahan - 6M guesstimate
Granlund - 0.8M "
Shore - 1.0M "
Jooris - 1.0M "
Bouma - 2.0M "
Ferland - 1.5M
Bennett - 0.925M

That's 15 forwards at about $41M

On defence we have

Hamilton - 5.75M
Wideman - 5.25M
Brodie - 4.65M
Smid - 3.5M could end up on LTI which would help to re-sign Russell or we could trade
Giordano - 7M complete guess but he has to fit into our budget
Engelland - 2.916M
Wotherspoon - 1.0M or could be Morrison etc.

That's about $30M for defence.

In goal it's a total guess but it would help if Ortio takes a spot. Lets budget $5M for our goalies.

That comes out to about $76M cap.

The cap could go up and we'll be fine but I'd like a couple of moves made so we can keep Hudler and Russell. Some of our cheaper forwards could be replaced by prospects but the salary savings wouldn't be much.
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Old 07-21-2015, 10:14 AM   #302
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Yeah, but the difference between the sides is actually greater given the value of the contract. The ratio between the difference between the sides and the team's ask is actually lower for Holtby than it is for Bouma:

Bouma: $1.0M / $1.5M = 66.7%
Holtby: $2.9M / $5.1M = 56.9%

Same is true for the player's ask:

Bouma: $1.0M / $2.5M = 40%
Holtby: $2.9M / $8.0M = 36.3%

So what? Well, there's a big difference between Lance Bouma asking for a million dollar raise and me asking for a million dollar raise.
Your math is a little off, Bouma is asking for a 250% raise, whereas Holtby is asking for a 275% raise
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Old 07-21-2015, 10:17 AM   #303
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Your math is a little off, Bouma is asking for a 250% raise, whereas Holtby is asking for a 275% raise
I wasn't talking about how much of a raise they're asking for from their previous contract. I don't see the value of their previous contract as relevant whatsoever.
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Old 07-21-2015, 10:21 AM   #304
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I wasn't talking about how much of a raise they're asking for from their previous contract. I don't see the value of their previous contract as relevant whatsoever.
As RFAs, aren't their previous contracts extremely relevant?
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Old 07-21-2015, 10:23 AM   #305
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I wasn't talking about how much of a raise they're asking for from their previous contract. I don't see the value of their previous contract as relevant whatsoever.
What is the relevance of dividing the previous contract amount by the new ask/team offer?
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Old 07-21-2015, 10:24 AM   #306
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As RFAs, aren't their previous contracts extremely relevant?
Are they? Perhaps you could enlighten me as to why.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Fire in the disco View Post
What is the relevance of dividing the previous contract amount by the new ask/team offer?
I don't know, as that is not what I was doing.
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Old 07-21-2015, 10:37 AM   #307
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Are they? Perhaps you could enlighten me as to why.



I don't know, as that is not what I was doing.
Sorry I should rephrase.

What was the relevance of dividing Boumas old salary 1.0 million by the teams ask of 1.5 million, and then dividing the old salary 1.0 million by the player ask 2.5 million?

If it were to show the variance in increase between Bouma and Holtbys most recent contract to the new team/player ask then your calc is off (s/b 1.5/1 and then 2.5/1)

If the increase on the most recent contracts wasnt the point of the ratio, then what was?
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Old 07-21-2015, 10:37 AM   #308
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Are they? Perhaps you could enlighten me as to why.
I'm not sure, which is why I posed it in question form. Something to do with the qualifying offer being based on the previous contract, but unsure how the arbitration fits in. Maybe someone else can shed some light.
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Old 07-21-2015, 10:44 AM   #309
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fire in the disco View Post
Sorry I should rephrase.

What was the relevance of dividing Boumas old salary 1.0 million by the teams ask of 1.5 million, and then dividing the old salary 1.0 million by the player ask 2.5 million?

If it were to show the variance in increase between Bouma and Holtbys most recent contract to the new team/player ask then your calc is off (s/b 1.5/1 and then 2.5/1)

If the increase on the most recent contracts wasnt the point of the ratio, then what was?
Not once did I mention the value of old contracts. I'm talking about how far apart the parties are as a percentage of the total NEW contract value. Someone pointed out that Holtby and the Caps are much further apart than Bouma and the Flames, and my response was that, in terms of the actual contract value, the Flames and Bouma are actually further apart.

The Flames and Bouma being $250k apart is hardly anything*. My employer and I being $250k apart means we might as well be on different planets. I was merely pointing out that talking in terms of just dollar amount doesn't tell the whole story.

* Unless you're the Edmonton Oilers trying to resign your captain.
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Old 07-21-2015, 10:51 AM   #310
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Once we give Bouma a one year contract at $2.5M it won't be going down. I do think $2M for 3 years would be fair though.

Looking at our cap situation in 2016/17, yeah we'll be up against the cap.

Frolic - 4.3M
Hudler - 5.0M this is just a guess and if we don't sign him, it will solve a lot of problems.
Jones - gone
Backlund - 3.575M
Raymond - 3.15M I think I might give up a draft pick to unload him. He isn't terrible but overpriced.
Stajan - 3.125M possible trade bait
Colborne - 1.5M guesstimate
Bollig - 1.25M not overpriced but wouldn't miss him
Gaudreau - 6M guesstimate
Monahan - 6M guesstimate
Granlund - 0.8M "
Shore - 1.0M "
Jooris - 1.0M "
Bouma - 2.0M "
Ferland - 1.5M
Bennett - 0.925M

That's 15 forwards at about $41M

On defence we have

Hamilton - 5.75M
Wideman - 5.25M
Brodie - 4.65M
Smid - 3.5M could end up on LTI which would help to re-sign Russell or we could trade
Giordano - 7M complete guess but he has to fit into our budget
Engelland - 2.916M
Wotherspoon - 1.0M or could be Morrison etc.

That's about $30M for defence.

In goal it's a total guess but it would help if Ortio takes a spot. Lets budget $5M for our goalies.

That comes out to about $76M cap.

The cap could go up and we'll be fine but I'd like a couple of moves made so we can keep Hudler and Russell. Some of our cheaper forwards could be replaced by prospects but the salary savings wouldn't be much.
Good post and really highlights our cap situation. I think your numbers are accurate based on what we know, possibly a little low on Hudler. Would put us at $76 million which could well be over the cap.

This results in icing essentially the same team as this coming year, minus Russell. Now we had two huge additions in Hamilton and Frolik but going forward we are really counting on improvement from our young guys to carry the day.
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Old 07-21-2015, 11:03 AM   #311
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Funny how we can go from barely a cap floor team to almost a max cap team so quickly.
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Old 07-21-2015, 11:27 AM   #312
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Quote:
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Chris Butler... that was rather easy actually.
Except that I was explicitly talking about forwards, this being a conversation about Bouma and all.

Defensemen are a completely different kettle of fish when it comes to BkS
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Old 07-21-2015, 11:30 AM   #313
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Funny how we can go from barely a cap floor team to almost a max cap team so quickly.
It seems like only yesterday people were saying that trading for Mike Richards would be a good idea.
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Old 07-21-2015, 11:32 AM   #314
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Agreed, and I think that Butler didn't block that many shots, they just happened to hit him.

Bouma blocks shots but plays offensive. I can't think of any forwards that bring what he brings right now although I'm sure there are some but as pointed out by a few...those are the kinds of players that you want on the team.
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Old 07-21-2015, 11:44 AM   #315
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Frolic - 4.3M
Hudler - 5.0M this is just a guess and if we don't sign him, it will solve a lot of problems.
Jones - gone
Backlund - 3.575M
Raymond - 3.15M I think I might give up a draft pick to unload him. He isn't terrible but overpriced.
Stajan - 3.125M possible trade bait
Colborne - 1.5M guesstimate
Bollig - 1.25M not overpriced but wouldn't miss him
Gaudreau - 6M guesstimate
Monahan - 6M guesstimate
Granlund - 0.8M "
Shore - 1.0M "
Jooris - 1.0M "
Bouma - 2.0M "
Ferland - 1.5M
Bennett - 0.925M

There is a lot of opportunity to save money here - Delete Raymond,Stajan and Bollig and Jones will save about 7.5 million. Add Byron back in - he won't cost more than a million.

Those moves wouldn't change the competitiveness of the team and put us in a decent space as far as cap room is concerned for the forward group.
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Old 07-21-2015, 12:02 PM   #316
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Cut loose Raymond and Stajan and we don't look too bad, until more raises come up anyways.
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Old 07-21-2015, 12:02 PM   #317
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Frolic - 4.3M
Hudler - 5.0M this is just a guess and if we don't sign him, it will solve a lot of problems.
Jones - gone
Backlund - 3.575M
Raymond - 3.15M I think I might give up a draft pick to unload him. He isn't terrible but overpriced.
Stajan - 3.125M possible trade bait
Colborne - 1.5M guesstimate
Bollig - 1.25M not overpriced but wouldn't miss him
Gaudreau - 6M guesstimate
Monahan - 6M guesstimate
Granlund - 0.8M "
Shore - 1.0M "
Jooris - 1.0M "
Bouma - 2.0M "
Ferland - 1.5M
Bennett - 0.925M

There is a lot of opportunity to save money here - Delete Raymond,Stajan and Bollig and Jones will save about 7.5 million. Add Byron back in - he won't cost more than a million.

Those moves wouldn't change the competitiveness of the team and put us in a decent space as far as cap room is concerned for the forward group.
That is the nice thing about have alot of quality prospects. You can push guys out as they are ready to become regualr NHLers. Porier, Klimchuk, Agostino, Granlund, Morrison, Wotherspoon improvement give us options to move out Stajan, Bollig, Raymond and Engeland. I think this is the key for the Flames success. Move those 4 out for cheap ELCs we gain a bunch of space back and may be better than with those 4 depending on how much progress we get out of the young guys

But for now Treviling has no reason to move these guys just yet as we have plenty of cap space right now for this season
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Old 07-21-2015, 12:09 PM   #318
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I should know this, but in hockey the arbitrator can make his/her own value. Essentially the offer submitted by both sides, really doesn't have to mean anything because it's still not Baseball style where the arbitrator is picking one sides offer over the other.

As a result teams should low ball, and players should over ask because it's not someone else's choice as to where they settle. Rather than think Bouma is comparable to player X who does the same things and ask for his number...his camp can say pay him 4 million a year because he's unique and no one else in the NHL can block this many shots and score 16 goals...we think this is big time valuable!
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Old 07-21-2015, 01:22 PM   #319
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The more I think about it, the riskier it is signing Bouma to a long term contract for much more than $1.5 million/yr right now. The Cap staying most likely flat next season is worrying. Bouma is still a RFA after this season, the Flames can accept the 1 year arbitration and re-evaluate next off-season. Most likely his production drops next season with the emergence of Ferland, Bennett and Frolik.
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Old 07-21-2015, 01:30 PM   #320
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Once we give Bouma a one year contract at $2.5M it won't be going down. I do think $2M for 3 years would be fair though.

Looking at our cap situation in 2016/17, yeah we'll be up against the cap.

Frolic - 4.3M
Hudler - 5.0M this is just a guess and if we don't sign him, it will solve a lot of problems.
Jones - gone
Backlund - 3.575M
Raymond - 3.15M I think I might give up a draft pick to unload him. He isn't terrible but overpriced.
Stajan - 3.125M possible trade bait
Colborne - 1.5M guesstimate
Bollig - 1.25M not overpriced but wouldn't miss him
Gaudreau - 6M guesstimate
Monahan - 6M guesstimate
Granlund - 0.8M "
Shore - 1.0M "
Jooris - 1.0M "
Bouma - 2.0M "
Ferland - 1.5M
Bennett - 0.925M

That's 15 forwards at about $41M

On defence we have

Hamilton - 5.75M
Wideman - 5.25M
Brodie - 4.65M
Smid - 3.5M could end up on LTI which would help to re-sign Russell or we could trade
Giordano - 7M complete guess but he has to fit into our budget
Engelland - 2.916M
Wotherspoon - 1.0M or could be Morrison etc.

That's about $30M for defence.

In goal it's a total guess but it would help if Ortio takes a spot. Lets budget $5M for our goalies.

That comes out to about $76M cap.

The cap could go up and we'll be fine but I'd like a couple of moves made so we can keep Hudler and Russell. Some of our cheaper forwards could be replaced by prospects but the salary savings wouldn't be much.
The core is all that matters - Monahan, Gaudreau, Bennett, Brodie, Gio, Hamiton. Assuming an 8M deal for Gio, we have $31.375M tied up in six players. The oldest non-Gio player in that group is 24 years old.

Our cap situation is going to be fine.
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