Friedman: Flames a good fit for Kessel?

[heep223]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

It is extremely easy and puts not pressure on us cap wise for the next 2 years.

How can you say that taking on an $8M contract for the next two years, the second of which we have to re-sign two rising franchise players and pay our captain/all-star/best player, does not put pressure on us cap wise? And is extremely easy?

Over the next two seasons we have to re-sign, or sign suitable replacements for on the NHL team:

Backlund
Colborne
Gaudreau
Monahan
Gio
Hudler
Jones
Russell
Goalie #1
Goalie #2
Jooris
Shore
Bouma
Granlund
Ferland
Byron

Obviously not all those guys are going to get signed, but we will have to find replacements for them even if they don't. Not to mention depth defensemen, RFAs and depth players in Stockton.

And you don't see having an $8M contract at the top of that pile as being an issue in 2016-17? Then, after your two year analysis, we're stuck with it until...wait for it...2022.

No. Just no.

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Originally Posted by Badgers Nose

Flames don't need Kessel. Sad that Friedman is trolling now.

Everything Flames need is already in their system.

RW Poirier
D Wotherspoon
G Ortio

They are not elite, but I think they will win spots and earn progressively more ice time until Poirier is a solid 2/3 RW and Wotherspoon takes the #4 spot (pushing Wideman to 3rd pair PP specialist).

Flames elite upgrade will be Bennett. Between him and Poirier I think there is 30-35 net positive goals versus guys they will push down the depth chart.

And lots more good stuff is coming soon. There are good farm players that can fill in when injuries hit.

With Bennett and Gio in the lineup they will start the year a better team than they were at the end of 2014/5, which is saying something.

Much like last off season I think there are a lot fans nervous about being too optimistic. But I think we'll know by December that this team is for real.

I also expect the Avs to fight Calgary for position right to the wire. Last year was an anomaly for them.

While I don't think Kessel is the answer, the Flames are far far away from having everything they need in the system IMO.

The Flames are missing a bonnafied 2nd scoring line, even with Bennett in the line up, he needs more consistent support. Poirier is a long way from proving he's for sure an NHL player, let alone a top 6 forward, so I don't think we should be taking that to the bank. They will improve up front as our key players mature and get closer to their primes, but I wouldn't say everything the Flames need to be a contender up front is in the system.

On the back end, same thing. Depth through the organization is weak. We need another top 4 D man IMO and I don't think we have one right now "in the system". Not to mention, 2 of our current top 4 are dangerously close to regression age (Wideman and Gio) with only one of them (Brodie) a player we should expect to improve in leaps and bounds.

In net, I'm also feeling good about Ortio being the long term solution, but it is a funny position.

So, if we look and say, realistically, the core of Monahan, Gaudreau, Bennett, Brodie and Ortio are set to be ready for cup contention in 2-3 years, I'm not sure we have what we need "in the system" at the moment to compliment them into being true cup contenders. You have to think at that point, Gio and Wideman (if still around) will be worse. Maybe Poirier is the answer as a complimentary player, but are we really confident we have the forwards in our system to round out the top 6 and 9 with what we've got?

Lot's can change in 2 to 3 years as we found out this year, but I'm not so convinced we are going to be continuously surprised by our prospects exceeding expectations the way we have the past couple of years. Flames need to add to their roster and prospect cupboards with assets we currently don't have if we want to target the rebuild being over and being a legit cup contender even 3 years down the road IMO.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

I said AN EXTRA 15 million, They aren't playing for free today you know.

Not trying to be a dick, but you don't even read the post properly and then say it's not as easy as I make it sound. It is extremely easy and puts not pressure on us cap wise for the next 2 years. After that it's only a burden if he isn't performing, which is the whole risk in bringing him in (Or if the cap plummets)

My bad, your post was a bit confusing.

So what you're saying is that after re-upping the 3 you mentioned and bringing in Kessel the Flames are in great shape. After the 15/16 season they only have to re-sign or replace: Hudler, Jones, Colborne, Backlund, Jooris, Bouma, Ferland, Russell, Schlemko, Wotherspoon and Granlund. And find 2 goalies. Okay.


edit: didn't see Heep's post........beat me to it.

[Jason14h]

How can you say that taking on an $8M contract for the next two years, the second of which we have to re-sign two rising franchise players and pay our captain/all-star/best player, does not put pressure on us cap wise? And is extremely easy?

Over the next two seasons we have to re-sign, or sign suitable replacements for on the NHL team:

Backlund - 3.5-4 (I would get rid of, I think is overated and doesn't bring much)
Colborne - No raise/ Small Raise or GONE
Gaudreau - 6 mil
Monahan - 6 mil
Gio - 7.5 mil
Hudler - 5.5 mil
Jones - GONE
Russell - 4 mil
Goalie #1 - 5 mil for both goalies, however we decided - Prob high if we go with Gillies
Goalie #2
Jooris - 1 mil or Gone
Shore - 1 mil or Gone
Bouma - 2.5-3
Granlund - 1.5
Ferland -Let see if he can do something for more then playoffs
Byron - GONE

So theres 45 million. Add in Kessel's 8, Stajan 3 mil for 2017-2018, and Brodie at 4.6. We're now up to 60 million. That will leave ~15 million to fill out the roster.

Assume a few rookies make the jump - Say 3 over the next 2 years(Bennett for sure) thats 3 million, and we've filled out 10-11 forwards and 4-5 D depending on the above bubble guys and are at ~65 million. We need a #3 D ( 5 million) and probably a top 6 forward (4 million) to fill this out.

There's 74 million

Yes, ballparking numbers and anything can change, but it's not that hard to get under a 75 million cap, especially if you don't have a 7 million $ goalie

[CaptainCrunch]

Bennett is off of his entry level contract in two seasons, and will probably get a 6 million dollar deal if he pans out. So that eats 6 million out of your 15. a number 3 defenseman will probably be 3 to 5 million and another top 6 forward will be 5 million so you're suddenly in cap hell.

And that lineup still has a wack of holes in it.

[KootenayFlamesFan]

J14..............You just made a great argument for not bringing in Kessel.

Minimum dollar goalies, no raise for Colborne, tell Jooris and Shore to take a million or take a hike, don't pencil Ferland in. Tough way to build a team when you bring in a high dollar player and tell some of your younger guys to go pound sand.

[CaptainCrunch]

Frankly I blame video games.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Backlund - 3.5-4 (I would get rid of, I think is overated and doesn't bring much)
Colborne - No raise/ Small Raise or GONE
Gaudreau - 6 mil
Monahan - 6 mil
Gio - 7.5 mil
Hudler - 5.5 mil
Jones - GONE
Russell - 4 mil
Goalie #1 - 5 mil for both goalies, however we decided - Prob high if we go with Gillies
Goalie #2
Jooris - 1 mil or Gone
Shore - 1 mil or Gone
Bouma - 2.5-3
Granlund - 1.5
Ferland -Let see if he can do something for more then playoffs
Byron - GONE

So theres 45 million. Add in Kessel's 8, Stajan 3 mil for 2017-2018, and Brodie at 4.6. We're now up to 60 million. That will leave ~15 million to fill out the roster.

Assume a few rookies make the jump - Say 3 over the next 2 years(Bennett for sure) thats 3 million, and we've filled out 10-11 forwards and 4-5 D depending on the above bubble guys and are at ~65 million. We need a #3 D ( 5 million) and probably a top 6 forward (4 million) to fill this out.

There's 74 million

Yes, ballparking numbers and anything can change, but it's not that hard to get under a 75 million cap, especially if you don't have a 7 million $ goalie

Originally Posted by KootenayFlamesFan

J14..............You just made a great argument for not bringing in Kessel.

Minimum dollar goalies, no raise for Colborne, tell Jooris and Shore to take a million or take a hike, don't pencil Ferland in. Tough way to build a team when you bring in a high dollar player and tell some of your younger guys to go pound sand.

I don't even think his math is correct. I quickly added up the salaries he assigned to my list, plus the players we actually do have signed in 2016-17, and I came up with around $70M. That doesn't include replacing Jones, and the issues you're pointing out with some of the young guys.

So adding Kessel's $8M would put the team over the cap or right against the cap in 2 years if it goes up, it certainly doesn't qualify as "not putting pressure and extremely easy". Then we're stuck with it until 2022.

NO

EDIT:

I did add it up more carefully and for 2016-17, under your scenario, you have $69.3M committed to 12 forwards and 6 D (and 2 G). You let Jones, Ferland and Byron walk. Then you add Kessel at $8M so now your cap hit is $77.3M, which is probably over but for sake of argument let's say is right against it because it went up significantly. You have nobody besides kids on the farm to replace someone in any position if they get hurt, and you are in cap hell when Bennett and other young players need raises.

All so that you can add Phil Kessel, an expensive UFA, to a team that's still in a rebuild after some modest playoff success. I understand that some people like him, and they are entitled to their opinions of course. But regardless, it makes no sense from a cap point of view - it would be debilitating to the future of this team.

I blame Friedman for all of this. C'mon Elliotte!

[Gaskal]

From Kent Wilson @FlamesNation.

[ForeverFlameFan]

Kessel's contract is possible to take if the salary cap increases. It's still a huge risk though, especially with all of the raises we have to give out within the next few years.

Kessel would be a fantastic player to have for the first 3-4 years of his contract. The last few years? Horrible. And you can't guarantee the guy will be playing at an elite level at the age of 32-34.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

From Kent Wilson @FlamesNation.

Monahan and Gaudreau are too high unless they sign 5+ year deals. I think the Flames will likely bridge the two of them for a combined total of around $8m-$9m AAV for a couple of seasons. Hudler's an easy decision not to sign at $5.75m, that's way too much for him at his age. If he was 28-29 I'd keep him around but we don't need mid 30s Hudler at nearly $6m for what is likely 5-6 years.

I think Gillies will factor into things more than I think Ortio will get $3m next summer. For Ortio to get that, he'd need to steal Hiller's job and start 50+ games. Even if he proves himself a great backup (that's not guaranteed) there's no way he gets 2x3m next summer.

Really looking at it, Calgary's roster/contract situation is a GM's dream. Everyone not in the plans is off the books by 2018 and a there's a bunch of good young players currently on their ELCs to build around. Anyone else 'in the way' like Raymond could probably be disposed of easily enough. That roster is extremely malleable and can really be taken any way management chooses.

There might not look like a lot of room for a guy like Kessel but if a guy like Sather can do what he does in New York, there's no reason to think Treliving couldn't work the cap here in a similar fashion. There's a lot of expiring contracts and moveable pieces there, things aren't nearly as tight as they appear. That second year looks like Kevin Lowe took over FFS. No way it ends up even close to that.

[Fire of the Phoenix]

I should add he has a total of $11.25m tied up into three imaginary free agents, there's no reason to think the Flames go in that direction. That's 70% of Kessel's salary right there. There are so many ways to slice and dice this... there's a million different scenarios and different ways to allocate the money. I wouldn't assume the Flames are going to blow their brains out on every extension (especially RFAs) and sign a bunch of mid tier free agents to bloat the budget. I think Treliving is a conservative GM and I don't see us within even $5m of the cap by opening day in 2016.

Raymond+Stajan+Engelland+Smid+imaginary free agents account for almost $25m in this 'forecast' and that's without the absurd deals to the RFAs factored in. Also, there is no way Mony/JH get 6x6's next season, we're not the Oilers. They'll get their big pay days on their third contracts IMO. I'll predict it right now, both Monahan and Gaudreau sign identical 2 year $4.5m contracts next summer.

Really this forecast is the ultimate worst case scenario, nothing more.

[H2SO4(aq)]

Nothing that has ever been uttered by Brad Treliving, and most importantly nothing said by him at the end of this season, suggests that the Flames are in the market of trading away young assets for veterans with contracts that are cap irresponsible.

So I think we can put to rest these Kessel trade talks, because regardless of what Friedman thinks is a good fit or not, our GM is still Brad Treliving.

[Gaskal]

Bridging Gaudreau and Monahan is a godawful idea. If there's two young talents that you don't bridge it's these two.

GMs do this for usually one of two reasons, either precaution of a percieved level of performance in future, or to save on salary in the short term.

But that's really it. It's just a short term measure because it screws with your cap a few years into the future. You want to bridge them for a combined total of $8-9 for two years, you'll be paying them something like $8-9M AAV each on the contract immediately after. Considering the performance of these two, they'll get paid - always earned, never given.

But if on the flipside we give them 6/5 or 6/6, then you're only committing the 5 or 6 million AAV a year each over approximately the same combined amount of time. And the more you save on salary, the more you can spend to surround your core with winning talent. And the longer you can balance your salary allocation like that, the longer your window for a Cup is. Treliving doesn't seem to think or act for the Flames in the short-term, ever.

[David Struch]

2017-18 Flames

Monahan 6
Gaudreau 6
Bennett 6
Backlund 3
Poirier 2
Klimchuk 2
Jankowski 2
Bouma 1.5
Ferland 1.5
Colbourne 1.5
Granlund 1.5
Jooris 1
Arnold 1
Shore 1

36 million

Giordano 7
Brodie 4.65
Russell 3.5
Hickey 1.5
Nakladal 1
Morrison 1
Wotherspoon 1

19.65

Ortio 2
Gillies 2

4 million

total = 59.65 million

Lots of room to upgrade this roster

[Badgers Nose]

Originally Posted by Cleveland Steam Whistle

While I don't think Kessel is the answer, the Flames are far far away from having everything they need in the system IMO.

The Flames are missing a bonnafied 2nd scoring line, even with Bennett in the line up, he needs more consistent support. Poirier is a long way from proving he's for sure an NHL player, let alone a top 6 forward, so I don't think we should be taking that to the bank. They will improve up front as our key players mature and get closer to their primes, but I wouldn't say everything the Flames need to be a contender up front is in the system.

On the back end, same thing. Depth through the organization is weak. We need another top 4 D man IMO and I don't think we have one right now "in the system". Not to mention, 2 of our current top 4 are dangerously close to regression age (Wideman and Gio) with only one of them (Brodie) a player we should expect to improve in leaps and bounds.

In net, I'm also feeling good about Ortio being the long term solution, but it is a funny position.

So, if we look and say, realistically, the core of Monahan, Gaudreau, Bennett, Brodie and Ortio are set to be ready for cup contention in 2-3 years, I'm not sure we have what we need "in the system" at the moment to compliment them into being true cup contenders. You have to think at that point, Gio and Wideman (if still around) will be worse. Maybe Poirier is the answer as a complimentary player, but are we really confident we have the forwards in our system to round out the top 6 and 9 with what we've got?

Lot's can change in 2 to 3 years as we found out this year, but I'm not so convinced we are going to be continuously surprised by our prospects exceeding expectations the way we have the past couple of years. Flames need to add to their roster and prospect cupboards with assets we currently don't have if we want to target the rebuild being over and being a legit cup contender even 3 years down the road IMO.

Only time will tell, but I see no point in questioning this teams selection and development of talent. the optimist in me sees Bennett as the number one offensive player on the flames as early as next year, combining element of Money and Johnny's games, plus some meanness. He won't lead the team in scoring or points, but by next spring his trajectory will be plotted and will point steeply upward

IMO he will make players like Poirier and Ferland much better. Bennett on the Flames solves the second line problem form last year and makes the third line better simply by clearing up which line is the third line

The 10th best offense will be better 5-5 and on the PP. I'm not seeing a problem.

On defense I see organic improvement to depth by Wotherspoon making the team. Gio and Brodie are among the best in the league, and by mid season Russel and Spoon will be a solid tandem that complement each other.

Ortio will win the goalie position. He has already demonstrated that he can play as well as the other two.

In two years Flames will have 4 of the leagues best forwards and 2 of the best defense men. Plus they will have excellent supporting players most likely without even having to go the FA route.

IMO they should just keep doing what they are doing emphasize drafting players they develop or who they obtain early in their careers for low risk (Russell and big Joe).

[Hockey_Ninja]

Kessel being traded to the Flames would make me projectile vomit around my room, Exorcist style.

[T@T]

Originally Posted by Fire of the Phoenix

Monahan and Gaudreau are too high unless they sign 5+ year deals. I think the Flames will likely bridge the two of them for a combined total of around $8m-$9m AAV for a couple of seasons.

What? These two are the future of the franchise, one has shown great two way play along with 22 and 31 goals his first two seasons and the other transformed the flames where the "no offensive talent" isn't talked about anymore in the media. Oh did I mention he may win the ROTY as well?

These aren't one dimensional players here (*cough* Edmonton) these are the future and you lock them down when you get a chance.

[T@T]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

From Kent Wilson @FlamesNation.

I sure hope the flames will be more creative with Giordano's contract,a $7.5m cap hit would be brutal.

[Tinordi]

Originally Posted by Gaskal

From Kent Wilson @FlamesNation.

This post should end this thread.