The Alison Redford transgressions thread. Update- Redford quits.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Redford is quite arrogant which is pretty annoying too, but she's not embarassing us at the level of Rob Ford. She's really embarassing herself more than anyone. It also appears Rob has no shame in the slightest, whereas I think Redford has just a little shame (at least she paid back the money?).

But here's a question to our more well versed politico's: What happens if say 35 PCs decide to sit as independants? Does that mean one of the independant's becomes premier? Or does Redford keep it by default?

People in Alberta may dislike Redford, but she's far from an embarrassment outside of our boarders. People in other provinces don't really care about what's happening in Alberta. Most of Ontario is too focused on the PQ right now.

If 35 PC decided to sit as independents, I imagine that would reduce the PCs below the number of Wildrose members. (I don't have a calculator in front of me and can never remember the number of seats in the Alberta Leg). Then if I'm not mistake Wildrose would be given the chance to form government because they have the most party members and they could form a coalition.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

Then if I'm not mistake Wildrose would be given the chance to form government because they have the most party members and they could form a coalition.

The government will be totally disfunctional, it'll be a disaster. Punting Redford seesm to be the least disruptive move right now.

[c.t.ner]

The biggest thing for Allison will be saturday's come to Jesus meeting with the Board of Governer's from each constituency.

My gut says that there will be very few BOGs that are going to be willing to have her continue on. Sure some of the city constituencies like Elbow, etc., maybe willing to stick it out with her but the Rural constituency associations are facing a really rough ride trying to sell Allison to their members.

My feeling is that she is told to lay down a succession plan over the next month to step down before BBQ season starts off so they can start a leadership race.

[crazy_eoj]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

People in Alberta may dislike Redford, but she's far from an embarrassment outside of our boarders. People in other provinces don't really care about what's happening in Alberta. Most of Ontario is too focused on the PQ right now.

If 35 PC decided to sit as independents, I imagine that would reduce the PCs below the number of Wildrose members. (I don't have a calculator in front of me and can never remember the number of seats in the Alberta Leg). Then if I'm not mistake Wildrose would be given the chance to form government because they have the most party members and they could form a coalition.

The sitting government would have to lose a confidence vote (ie: budget...which hasn't been approved yet) before there would be a change in the government.

It's highly unlikely, even if 35 PC's crossed to sit as independents, that they would allow the government to fall and give the wildrose the chance to govern.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by c.t.ner

If 35 PC decided to sit as independents, I imagine that would reduce the PCs below the number of Wildrose members. (I don't have a calculator in front of me and can never remember the number of seats in the Alberta Leg). Then if I'm not mistake Wildrose would be given the chance to form government because they have the most party members and they could form a coalition.

35 MLAs sitting as independents would be an unmitigated disaster for the PCs. It wouldn't push Redford out right away though. The theoretical number would be (I think):

PC 25
WRP 17
LIB 5
NDP 2
IND 36

(I counted Webber as one of the 35, and there was already one independent.)

That right there is a scandal-plagued house. In that scenario, I would imagine the opposition would instigate a vote of no confidence, which would place the independents in a massively awkward situation. They either follow through on their discontent with Redford and support the motion, or they side with Redford anyway. If the former, the PCs would be a hot mess in a snap election. Wildrose and the Liberals would eat them alive - and hell, this is probably the only way a Liberal party becomes relevant in this province. But if they choose the latter, then every independent that sides with Redford after leaving because of her becomes open for attack in the next election.

Realistically, if half the PC caucus crossed the floor, it would be the end of the party. They won't go down that route. They would quietly knife Redford in the back until she finally bleeds out, then try to restore the party from within.

[darklord700]

I've seen this kind of palace coup play out in the workplace and it'd never worked. Most people talked a good talk by the water cooler or in the lunch room but when push comes to shove, people just worry about getting their next pay cheque and never do anything.

[crazy_eoj]

Originally Posted by darklord700

I've seen this kind of palace coup play out in the workplace and it'd never worked. Most people talked a good talk by the water cooler or in the lunch room but when push comes to shove, people just worry about getting their next pay cheque and never do anything.

Totally agree. And this is especially true for those feeding at golden trough like our elected representatives.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by darklord700

I've seen this kind of palace coup play out in the workplace and it'd never worked. Most people talked a good talk by the water cooler or in the lunch room but when push comes to shove, people just worry about getting their next pay cheque and never do anything.

This is also what happens in an election. People vote with their wallets and that means that when times are pretty good (as they are today) it takes a lot for people to hand over the wheel to another party.

I know its easy to talk about the plane rides, but IMO its pretty boring to most people. A lot of the general public is pretty jaded about politics already. Its disappointing, but its sort of routine. It feels like we see this with every government, regardless of their political stripe.

[c.t.ner]

Originally Posted by darklord700

I've seen this kind of palace coup play out in the workplace and it'd never worked. Most people talked a good talk by the water cooler or in the lunch room but when push comes to shove, people just worry about getting their next pay cheque and never do anything.

It's pretty obvious that with Len leaving to run federally, he really had nothing to lose with sitting as an independent and more to gain by publicly distancing himself from Redford.

Any other MLAs thinking of crossing are between a rock and a hard place. If they leave as independents they have to start from scratch and will lose the support of their constituency for the next election. I can't recall any MLA in Alberta, besides Sherman, who left a party and was re-elected the next election as an independant.

Their only other option is to join the Wildrose (or another party), but that in itself is a pretty bold move and given the hatred between the two parties conservative parties I don't think many will chose that option.

There's a good article and quote from Snelgrove on the perils of leaving a party.

http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/po...688/story.html

[Resolute 14]

Theoretically, any MLA who left because of Redford could return once she is gone. But the issue with crossing the floor is that you effectively become a mercenary at that point. And mercenaries rarely find themselves placed in positions of high trust, no matter how loyal they appear to become.

[Jacks]

If somehow they lost a confidence vote I can't see any other party being give a chance to form government. There would surely be an election call, the house would be way to dysfunctional. They won't lose a vote anyway unless Redford outright refused to leave if the party asked.

Originally Posted by Slava

I'm really hoping that there is a 3:30pm on a Friday afternoon kind of announcement that she is stepping down, or a bunch of MLAs are moving to be independents. I say that just because its enjoyable for me to watch this theatre.

They were saying on the radio this morning that there will be 2 meetings this weekend. The party executive will be meeting to decide what they want to do with the situation, apparently they are not impressed with Hancock deriding Webber. Apparently a group of 20 - 30 MLA's are also going to meet without Redford being present, you can guess that they want to discuss whether to keep supporting Redford.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Jacks

If somehow they lost a confidence vote I can't see any other party being give a chance to form government. There would surely be an election call, the house would be way to dysfunctional. They won't lose a vote anyway unless Redford outright refused to leave if the party asked.


They were saying on the radio this morning that there will be 2 meetings this weekend. The party executive will be meeting to decide what they want to do with the situation, apparently they are not impressed with Hancock deriding Webber. Apparently a group of 20 - 30 MLA's are also going to meet without Redford being present, you can guess that they want to discuss whether to keep supporting Redford.

I think in the parliamentary system though Smith (leader of the opposition) could go to Ethel (Lt. Gov) and ask for a chance to gain the confidence of the house. Clearly they could go to the newly independent MLAs and offer up some cabinet positions and things like that to get them to walk over and sit with them.

I'll just put it out there before anyone crosses, that regardless of party stripe I think it should be outlawed and the people forced to contest another election. I'm OK with people going to be independent, and I'm a little better with people leaving one party to join something newly formed...its not great, but at least you can reconcile that. But for someone to leave a party today and join another one tomorrow just seems like a slap in the face to the constituents who elected them.

[Jacks]

Originally Posted by Slava

I think in the parliamentary system though Smith (leader of the opposition) could go to Ethel (Lt. Gov) and ask for a chance to gain the confidence of the house. Clearly they could go to the newly independent MLAs and offer up some cabinet positions and things like that to get them to walk over and sit with them.

I know that the Lt. Gov. has the discretion to decide whether any party can gain and hold the confidence of the house. There really isn't any group that would make natural allies enough to form a stable majority coalition that I can see. Unless maybe the MLA's leaving the PC's promised to back the Wildrose but I can't see that happening. Being 2 years out from the last election I'd bet money that we'd go to a snap election.

Originally Posted by Slava

I'll just put it out there before anyone crosses, that regardless of party stripe I think it should be outlawed and the people forced to contest another election. I'm OK with people going to be independent, and I'm a little better with people leaving one party to join something newly formed...its not great, but at least you can reconcile that. But for someone to leave a party today and join another one tomorrow just seems like a slap in the face to the constituents who elected them.

Didn't we agree on something last year too? eerie

[killer_carlson]

I think the biggest decision on whether to dump Redford/request her resignation is the PC Party's estimates of being able to fund a leadership race AND an election inside 2 years.

Will their donors donate? If they believe the answer is a "no", then they may be stuck with getting what little cash they have now.

The other part of this is that there are a bunch of other MLAs who will be pressing to keep her around. A guy like Jeff Johnson has a lot to lose if she gets shuffled out. He's right behind her. Fred Horne probably as well. Griffiths? Perhaps. So she may not be a lone wolf there.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by killer_carlson

I think the biggest decision on whether to dump Redford/request her resignation is the PC Party's estimates of being able to fund a leadership race AND an election inside 2 years.

Will their donors donate? If they believe the answer is a "no", then they may be stuck with getting what little cash they have now.

The other part of this is that there are a bunch of other MLAs who will be pressing to keep her around. A guy like Jeff Johnson has a lot to lose if she gets shuffled out. He's right behind her. Fred Horne probably as well. Griffiths? Perhaps. So she may not be a lone wolf there.

[worth]

"Progress" is his middle name.

[Resolute 14]

Originally Posted by Slava

I think in the parliamentary system though Smith (leader of the opposition) could go to Ethel (Lt. Gov) and ask for a chance to gain the confidence of the house. Clearly they could go to the newly independent MLAs and offer up some cabinet positions and things like that to get them to walk over and sit with them.

It would work the way it does federally. If Redford were to lose a confidence vote, she would be obligated to inform the Lt. Governor of this and ask for an election to be called. The Lt. Governor could accept that recommendation and dissolve the Legislature, or he could the ask the opposition parties if any of them think they could form a government.

Logically, I couldn't see Ethell doing anything but call an election in this scenario. The Legislature would be completely dysfunctional a that point and it would be of no benefit to ask another party to try and make it work. More importantly, I think Smith would prefer an election anyway. In this scenario, she would be going up against a PC party in open revolt. Wildrose would be in the catbird seat to score a majority government if an election were held in such a climate. And, I suspect, a Liberal opposition.

[Rathji]

Originally Posted by darklord700

I actually find Rob Ford sufferable as he doesn't take himself seriously. He's a bozo people like to laugh at but Alison is a self preening peacock that people simply dislike.

Wait, you like the right wing crack smoking mayor, but dislike the politician who can't properly figure out what should go on her expense account or not?

I realize that you are clearly partisan but that seems a little absurd.

[GP_Matt]

Originally Posted by Rathji

Wait, you like the right wing crack smoking mayor, but dislike the politician who can't properly figure out what should go on her expense account or not?

I realize that you are clearly partisan but that seems a little absurd.

I like Rob Ford in the sense that he is someone else's mayor and is making a mockery of the system. I wouldn't be happy if he was my mayor though.

[Flamenspiel]

^^Exactly, I have enjoyed the laughs at Toronto's expense. Toronto always was so serious in trying to be "world class". Rob Ford comes off as what we in the 80s(in Toronto)would have called a "goof", but certainly likeable, particularly in the Kimmel interview.

Doug on the other hand, he seems like a more nefarious type.

Glad i live in Calgary now!