2011 Federal election polls, demographics, predictions

[Slava]

WOW! That is an amazingly close poll.

I do wonder about the bin Laden effect tomorrow...although I can't see it being a major advantage for one party over another?

[CaptainCrunch]

Tell you what, I'll have sex with a really repulsive fat chick if the results are anywhere near that seat wise.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Tell you what, I'll have sex with a really repulsive fat chick if the results are anywhere near that seat wise.

they've given fairly large brackets there for the seats...are you sure?

CPC at 130-146 for example seems pretty reasonable? They could still get a majority I think...but it really depends on a few things.

[Sylvanfan]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Tell you what, I'll have sex with a really repulsive fat chick if the results are anywhere near that seat wise.

Chances are you were planning on doing it anyway and this is a really convenient cop out for you.

I'm no NDP supporter, in fact quite the opposite. But this was an election I had pretty much no interest in...and now I suddenly do, and largely because of the potential of the NDP to gain more seats than the Liberals. I don't care for Jack Layton, but in relative terms to his direct competition, he's the only one who exudes the slightest bit of charisma. Which is why I think he might be the one guy to make any ground in this election.

Two weeks ago I would have had the TV on something else the night of May 2nd. Now I'll watch with a bit of interest.

[transplant99]

308 with their final predictions...

CPC 143...NDP 78.....Liberal 60....Bloc 27

http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

[Dan02]

Originally Posted by Slava

WOW! That is an amazingly close poll.

I do wonder about the bin Laden effect tomorrow...although I can't see it being a major advantage for one party over another?

Given how vocal the NDP have been against the mission in Afghanistan, had this happened a few days ago I think their campaign would have taken a big hit, as it stands I think it's too late for anyone to take advantage of it.

[transplant99]

democraticspace with their final projections...(unles they update in the AM)

CPC 149
NDP 79
Liberal 55
Bloc 24
Ind. 1

http://www.democraticspace.com/canada2011/

[Nehkara]

Originally Posted by transplant99

308 with their final predictions...

CPC 143...NDP 78.....Liberal 60....Bloc 27

http://www.threehundredeight.blogspot.com/

That is a fair and level-headed projection.

It will be interesting to see if this kind of projection, using data over the entire campaign, is more accurate or if EKOS projection based on the most recent polling data is more accurate.

The Threehundredeight.com projection uses the following popular vote percentages (percent change from weekend polling averages in brackets):

CPC - 36.4% (+0.6%)
NDP - 27.3% (-4.0%)
LIB - 22.8% (+2.4%)
BLQ - 6.7% (+0.9%)
GRN - 5.6% (+0.5%)

This type of backslide in support for the NDP may well happen at the polls.

I'm off to do my own projection!

[getbak]

If you scroll down this page, it shows what the different sources had as their seat projections in 2008: http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/results.html

They were all close with their Bloc and NDP numbers, but way low for the CPC and way high for the Liberals.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Chances are you were planning on doing it anyway and this is a really convenient cop out for you.

Yeah probably

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

I'm no NDP supporter, in fact quite the opposite. But this was an election I had pretty much no interest in...and now I suddenly do, and largely because of the potential of the NDP to gain more seats than the Liberals. I don't care for Jack Layton, but in relative terms to his direct competition, he's the only one who exudes the slightest bit of charisma. Which is why I think he might be the one guy to make any ground in this election.

Two weeks ago I would have had the TV on something else the night of May 2nd. Now I'll watch with a bit of interest.

My folks are actually throwing a election viewing party tomorrow night and I'll be there for that.

[Nehkara]

Originally Posted by getbak

If you scroll down this page, it shows what the different sources had as their seat projections in 2008: http://www.sfu.ca/~aheard/elections/results.html

They were all close with their Bloc and NDP numbers, but way low for the CPC and way high for the Liberals.

I think a huge factor for this election will be voter turnout and I believe the higher the turnout, the better the result for the NDP.

Last election had the lowest voter turnout in history and I think that favoured the CPC.

[troutman]

I've never seen so many orange signs and people with orange t-shirts as I did this weekend in Calgary.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by troutman

I've never seen so many orange signs and people with orange t-shirts as I did this weekend in Calgary.

maybe we're just being invaded by the Netherlands

[Resolute 14]

I like you Slava, but when anything that benefits the Conservatives is "unethical", and anything that harms them is fine, you really do come off as a hypocrite.

[Calgaryborn]

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

I like you Slava, but when anything that benefits the Conservatives is "unethical", and anything that harms them is fine, you really do come off as a hypocrite.

OK Now! That's totally uncalled for!

There is nothing to like about Slava!!!

[GirlySports]

So lets break this down... out of the 142 seats that the Conservatives have.. what seats can they lose and what seats can they gain. Can they get a majority?

I was looking at threehundredeight.com and to me, these are the important races of the evening.

BC
Esquimalt—Juan de Fuca
Held by Liberals but no incumbent
Polls: CPC 32.0 LIB 27.2 NDP 32.2
Possible CPC GAIN

Surrey North
Held by Conservative incumbent Donna Cadman
Polls: CPC 37.3 NDP 42.5
Possible CPC LOSS

Vancouver Island North
Held by Conservative incumbent John Duncan
Polls: CPC 42.0 NDP 47.1
Possible CPC LOSS


Saskatchewan
Saskatoon—Rosetown—Biggar
Held by Conservative incumbent Kelly Brock
Polls: CPC 44.7 NDP 47.3
Possible CPC LOSS

Ontario
Ajax—Pickering
Held by Liberal incumbent Mark Holland
Polls: CPC 42.0 LIB 41.4
Possible CPC GAIN

Brampton—Springdale
Held by Liberal incumbent Ruby Dhalla
Polls: CPC 39.5 LIB 39.6
Possible CPC GAIN

Brampton West
Held by Liberal incumbent Ruby Dhalla
Polls: CPC 39.3 LIB 38.2
Possible CPC GAIN

Eglinton—Lawrence
Held by Liberal incumbent Joe Volpe
Polls: CPC 39.9 LIB 43.0
Possible CPC GAIN

Guelph
Held by Liberal incumbent Frank Valeriote
Polls: CPC 30.6 LIB 30.4 NDP 22.5
Possible CPC GAIN

Kingston and the Islands
Held by Liberals but no incumbent
Polls: CPC 34.9 LIB 32.4 NDP 24.4
Possible CPC GAIN

Mississauga South
Held by Liberal incumbent Paul Szabo
Polls: CPC 39.8 LIB 42.7
Possible CPC GAIN

Oshawa
Held by Conservative incumbent Colin Carrie
Polls: CPC 39.7 NDP 40.8
Possible CPC LOSS

Simcoe—Grey
Held by Independant incumbent Helena Guergis
Polls: CPC 31.6 IND 22.6
CPC GAIN

Quebec
Beauport—Limoilou
Held by Conservative incumbent Silvie Boucher
Polls: CPC 29.1 NDP 33.7 BQ 24.8
Possible CPC LOSS

Charlesbourg—Haute-Saint-Charles
Held by Conservative incumbent Silvie Boucher
Polls: CPC 32.1 NDP 34.6
Possible CPC LOSS

Pontiac
Held by Conservative incumbent Lawrence Cannon (Minister of Foreign Affairs)
Polls: CPC 26.7 NDP 37.6
CPC LOSS

Nova Scotia
Central Nova
Held by Conservative incumbent Peter MacKay (Minister of Defense)
Polls: CPC 36.4 NDP 42.4
Possible CPC LOSS

South Shore—St. Margaret's
Held by Conservative incumbent Gerald Keddy
Polls: CPC 34.3 NDP 42.1
CPC LOSS

Newfoundland
Avalon
Held by Liberal incumbent Scott Andrews
Polls: CPC 54.8 LIB 31.5
CPC GAIN

Random—Burin—St. George's
Held by Liberal incumbent Judy Foote
Polls: CPC 40.1 LIB 36.5
Possible CPC GAIN

So by my list I count 11 Gains and 9 losses for +2
They need a magic number of +12 to get a majority.
Can they hold onto enough seats in this list to get there?
Is Peter MacKay really going to lose his seat? That would be a huge story.

[Shin Pad]

Well, the campaigning is over - now the people speak. Well, I voted in the advanced polls, so I've already spoken

[Mayer]

nm

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by Slava

Its the wrong thread for this, but its undemocratic and unethical. If its a slam-dunk then IMO resign and go to the polls. I get "how the system works", but that isn't what makes it unethical. Anyway....we'll be going in circles here and this is the wrong thread for this. We'll cross that bridge if/when it comes.

And yet a coalition IS democratic AND ethical?

[killer_carlson]

I wonder if there will be a few Paul Martin Liberals (i.e. fiscally conservative Liberals) who will cross the floor 6 months from now in the name of stability in government (and a few plum committee appointments for themselves).