CalgaryNEXT Discussion pt. 2

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

The fieldhouse is supposed to be an amateur sports facility, not the Stamps home/Taylor Swift concert house. Again, they can spend $200 million for a 100% full public access facility, or they can spend $200 million for a limited public access facility. And oh yeah, nevermind the guaranteed price increases that come with any new facility, which cuts out the average fan. It's a political loser, besides also being a financially poor decision.

And really it's a moot argument now it seems, CalgaryNEXT is all but dead so let's start focusing on the plan B arena and get some renderings and concepts out of that. Wasting time on the same backs and forths we've been going about for months now isn't going anywhere, especially when again CalgaryNEXT appears all but dead. I know that the staunch CalgaryNEXT supporters are going through the phases right now so I get the anger and denial, but it looks like it's over. Bring on the new, $0 public contribution arena. It's what the vast majority wants anyway.

The only anger in this thread is from the anti-Calgary next posters. Go back through the pages and it's mostly vitriol towards King, the Owners, war crimes LOL, etc. No anger here as far as I'm concerned it's just a matter of when not if CalgaryNEXT happens.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Zarley

You keep saying this, but do you have a pro forma to share? I'd like to build out the two scenarios (WV with CalgaryNext and without) when I have time.

Also, the mayor's half baked plan involves a lipstick on a pig reno of McMahon that maybe buys 15 years of additional useful life - the eventual replacement of it still needs to be dealt with. I know most politicians are short term thinkers focused on their next election, Nenshi included, but this "plan B" option can't be looked at in isolation. It simply makes sense to capitalize on the economies of scale from a combined facility when both are coming up for replacement at the same time.

Originally Posted by GGG

So going through the that report in detail.

The Flames ownership will contribute 450 million
The city has to contribute about 900 million.

The city will get 435 million from a CRL and 310 million from the sale of land leaving about 150 million to be financed and still want to spend another 200 million in infrastructure on the west village.

They get a field house, stadium, and arena.

Or

Remediate the land for 50 million
Spend 200 million on a field house
Spend 300 million on infastructure (Total Value not reduced amount)

Gain 460 million from selling the land (15 more acres of land)
Gain 435 from the CRL or more now that you have more land.

This leaves you with 200 million dollars in actual created value. (150 million is interest. So you are Half a billion dollars ahead if you don't build the stadium/Arena.

So is an Arena and Stadium worth half a billion. I think we get the Arena for 100 million in infrastructure around Stampede.

Here my rough comparison between WV with and without Arena. It uses the flames report values for the sale of land and assumes no extra money from the CRL for the 15 extra acres of development. Its back of the napkin level of quality.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Not sure I was being naive as I never suggested the Flames were putting the city first at all.

All I said is that they have needs, and they tried to plug those needs into what the city was suggesting they needed.

And I added they sort of stepped on their own toes in marketing that.

I think the Flames $800M was silly, so to was the city's $1.8B.

I really didn't like how the Flames were inconsistent with building ages either. Commonwealth became "new" with a reno, but the Saddledome didn't, etc.

But everyone's job here is to look out for themselves. That's why they all come at it from a different view. Both the $800M and $1.8B tags could technically be right...but of course that depends on what they fully represent. The city's number was way more detailed, but also likely stretching the truth about some of the costs involved. The Flames of course left things out because no one wants to hear a nine figure price tag. Each side is selling, but the leverage advantage the city has means the Flames have to sell harder.

But the fact the Flames can do the arena alone and not have a public amount in other than covering the ticket tax means they've already established plan B is realistic and doable, and that's what it'll be in the end. CalgaryNEXT was never going to work if they couldn't sell it, and sell the vision, and I think we can all agree they failed badly at that. There will still be an arena at the end of the day, and for as much as people want a new Stamps home, it's an even bigger financial loser than these things normally are. I hate the NFL hostage game, but at least you get a Super Bowl and the $200-300 million in economic activity that brings. Grey Cup obviously, not so much.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

The only anger in this thread is from the anti-Calgary next posters. Go back through the pages and it's mostly vitriol towards King, the Owners, war crimes LOL, etc. No anger here as far as I'm concerned it's just a matter of when not if CalgaryNEXT happens.

The anti-CalgaryNEXT posters are the ones who know Rogers Pavilion or whatever the new Rogers sponsored arena is coming. You'll enjoy the arena no doubt. We just get a kick of pointing out the known facts about what a waste taxpayer money is in these things. And vitriol towards King? People saying he's done a poor job is vitriol? Hmmm.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by IamNotKenKing

It actually is Nenshi's plan.

Ohhhhhhhhhh, excellent rebuttal. You really cast some new light on the issue that I'd never considered. You have shown me the light.

[MrMastodonFarm]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

No anger here as far as I'm concerned it's just a matter of when not if CalgaryNEXT happens.

CalgaryNext is specifically the West End mega project, not just a Flames arena. The latter will happen eventually, somewhere.. the former is dead in the water.

[Zarley]

Originally Posted by MrMastodonFarm

CalgaryNext is specifically the West End mega project, not just a Flames arena. The latter will happen eventually, somewhere.. the former is dead in the water.

Actually, from what I've heard it's not. The mayor is obviously not on board (for his own political reasons more than anything else, perhaps he'll flip flop after the election), but he's only a vote on council.

[IamNotKenKing]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Ohhhhhhhhhh, excellent rebuttal. You really cast some new light on the issue that I'd never considered. You have shown me the light.

Thanks.
Plan B, being the arena only north of current 'dome, is Nenshi's plan.
It is a fact. Not just because I say so, but because it is.

[Kavvy]

Originally Posted by IamNotKenKing

Thanks.
Plan B, being the arena only north of current 'dome, is Nenshi's plan.
It is a fact. Not just because I say so, but because it is.

Not disputing, but post the sources? Shouldn't be hard, and would of avoided the back and forth you went into.

Not just that he may agree with it, but it is indeed his plan (i.e. not a City recommendation).

[Ozy_Flame]

Pretty sure there are a few members on this board that can very quickly shoot this down as "Nenshi's plan".

[IamNotKenKing]

Originally Posted by Kavvy

Not disputing, but post the sources? Shouldn't be hard, and would of avoided the back and forth you went into.

Not just that he may agree with it, but it is indeed his plan (i.e. not a City recommendation).

I know. I get pissy sometimes and post in a huff.

[cam_wmh]

Originally Posted by IamNotKenKing

Thanks.
Plan B, being the arena only north of current 'dome, is Nenshi's plan.
It is a fact. Not just because I say so, but because it is.

You realize the Mayor can't unilaterally dictate the plan right?

[IamNotKenKing]

Originally Posted by cam_wmh

You realize the Mayor can't unilaterally dictate the plan right?

Yup. He can still have a plan that is the only one he backs.

[Frequitude]

Pssh. We should clearly be calling it "Bunk's Plan" around here. Link

[Bunk]

The report establishing the framework for evaluation of CalgaryNEXT was authored by the Mayor's Office and approved by Council. It included recommendations to consult affected organizations. This is partially what led to the notion of looking formally at a Plan B.

http://agendaminutes.calgary.ca/sire...A&itemid=38022

The evaluation and subsequent feasibility report was done by Deputy Manager City Brad Stevens.

The conversations at early stages were almost exclusively between the Mayor/Mayor's Office and CSEC. Once it moved into the formal evaluation phase, the Deputy City Manager along with supporting work from entities like CMLC and direct input from organizations like Calgary Economic Development, U of C, and Stampede. This is where the Plan B - explicitly identifying Stampede for a standalone arena, Fieldhouse at Foothills and a renovated McMahon emerged.

http://agendaminutes.calgary.ca/sire...a&itemid=43230

Formally, Plan B was Administration derived, but I have little doubt (even though I have zero inside knowledge on this) that the Mayor has continued to remain closely involved in all discussions. So not totally cut and dried.

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

Pssh. We should clearly be calling it "Bunk's Plan" around here. Link

Looks like the LRT will go on 12th Ave now, instead of 10th. I suppose that would further strengthen the idea of an arena in the location I drew here.

[Frequitude]

Bunk, do you think there's anyway to shoehorn the arena+stadium/fieldhouse concept onto or around the Stampede Grounds?

Alternative A: Is there room on the north side or does the Youth Campus take up too much space? Might the Stampede be open to moving the Youth Campus to make room or is that plan too far along?

Alternative B: If you demo'd the Big 4 and stole some parking could it fit there? Stampede would have to change the midway layout obviously.

[Bunk]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

Bunk, do you think there's anyway to shoehorn the arena+stadium/fieldhouse concept onto or around the Stampede Grounds?

Alternative A: Is there room on the north side or does the Youth Campus take up too much space? Might the Stampede be open to moving the Youth Campus to make room or is that plan too far along?

Alternative B: If you demo'd the Big 4 and stole some parking could it fit there? Stampede would have to change the midway layout obviously.

I think either is technically possible, just not likely. I think there is probably a strong desire to keep the fieldhouse at Foothills.

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by Bunk

I think either is technically possible, just not likely. I think there is probably a strong desire to keep the fieldhouse at Foothills.

Personally I like that too. Keep it near all the amateur athletes.

Just for boredom's sake I played around with Google Maps to shoehorn a scaled CalgaryNEXT onto a few spots around the Stampede Grounds.

edit: spoilered because I screwed up the scaling on the image inside so figured I'd hide it before someone else responds to this...

Spoiler!

[Ozy_Flame]

I appreciate your effort, but the hockey arena is like 1/2 the size of the Saddledome. May need to increase that.