If you look at the teams that made the conference finals, easy to see some pretty obvious "savings" for each (just like Gaudreau and Tkachuk for the Flames this year).
Shesterkin becoming a Vezina winner making 5.7M.
Zibanejad playing like a 10M player but making 5.3M. Kreider scoring 50 goals on a 6.5M contract
Miller, Lafrenière on ELC (especially Miller). Fox, Lindgren on RFA (especially Lindgren).
Zibanejad bumps up to 8.5M next year, but as long as Shesterkin remains a reasonable starter, the development of Lafreniere, Miller and Kakko on RFA contracts, their window really looks to be just opening.
The Oilers have Draisaitl making 8.5M. Puljujarvi, Yammoto, Bouchard making nothing and obviously Kane making peanuts for what he brought on the ice.
But Nurse's new contract kicks in next year, Kane if he signs will be making way more, Puljujarvi and Yammoto need to be re-signed. Unless Keith disappears, there's no reason to assume they will be as good next year. But I do think with the wonder twins making 21M combined, the Oilers have to actively try to make the team suck. Fortunately they have done it by signing Nurse to 9M+, relying on Smith, bringing in Keith and pretty much everything they have done except having their balls picked by Bettman.
Colorado has Mackinnon making 6.3M, Makar and Toews coming in at 13M. Less than 20M for those three players when they are probably worth over 30M as UFAs. And they still have another year with those caps. Unlike the Oilers though, as long as they do something about their goalies, they still should be expected to get better as Byram develops, and Makar is only 23! So even by the time MacKinnon is needed to be re-signed, they still are likely finding extreme value in Makar and Byram.
I just don't see the same type of savings from the Flames if they sign Gaudreau and Tkachuk to fair contracts. One year of RFA for Tkachuk won't move the needle much (especially with current contract). Tanev, Hanifin, Andersson and especially Lindholm I think are pretty favourable contracts. But two years left on most, and one with Lucic and Monahan making too much. I think if you sign Gaudreau, you're pretty much hoping to win in 2024 before Lindholm needs a new contract.
Of course if Monahan bounces back, Zary becomes on all star on a ELC contract, all bets off. But those are longshots at best.
Then there's the Flames:
(Bennett (4)->Heineman) oof.
It's almost crazy when you look at Rangers. They built a team through 1st round picks, being New York City and Igor breaking out. Barely anything at all to show for drafting in the 2nd round and later. Colorado hasn't done much better in their non-first round draft picks and the Oilers are the Oilers.
Spoiler!
Hayes does the college route free agency to sign with Rangers, another sought after college player, Poink, signs with Ranges over other teams that results in Trouba (Hayes->1st/Poink->Trouba).
Fox forces his way to New York.
Erixon forces himself to daddy's New York team. 1st and Erixon (plus) traded for Nash. Nash traded for Lindgren, K'Andre Miller, Strome (via Spooner lol).
Gaborik signs with Rangers for far less total contract than Minnesota offered the off-season before (78.5M for 10 years allegedly) and rumoured to be taking less than offered by Vancouver although the Sedins signings may have altered plans and no real contract offer existed. Gaborik->Brassard->Zibanejad.
Panarin signs for less to play in New York.
Even Copp was traded for a 1st now lol. Kreider, and Chytil pretty much rounding out the rest of the team as 1st round selections.
Since 2009, outside of Shesterkin, their non-first round draft picks that got more than a cup of a coffee so far include Fast (2010), Buchnevich (2013), Duclair (2013) (18 games with Rangers) and Graves (2013) (0 games with Rangers).
Colorado with Butcher, Pickard, O'Reilly and Barrie as only established NHL players, Meloche played 50 games this year with the Sharks so let's count him. They also got lucky that 2009 was the year I arbitrarily used and O'Reilly got them Compher and Barrie got them Kadri, so probably a fair year by chance.
Even the Oilers have them beat in quantity, McLeod, Jones, Bear, Marino, Khaira, Gustafsson, Reider, Pitlick, Marincin, Davidson, Lander.
Of course Tampa has quantity and quality with Colton, Raddysh, Katchouk, Cirelli, Joseph, Point, Erne, Paquette, Namestnikov, Kucherov, Nesterov, Palat, Gudas, Panik and technically Ingram started all four games for Nashville due to injury.
In that same time the Flames drafted Dube, Fox, Andersson, Kylington, Mangiapane, Kulak, Granlund, Gaudreau, Brossoit, Ferland for 10.
There's a couple like Slepyshev (opted to go back to the KHL), Gillies (19 games played this year with the carousel in New Jersey), Bournival (60 games in rookie season before becoming AHLer, etc. that I didn't think established themselves enough plus obviously recent draft picks still developing.
So between the Rangers, Oilers and Avalanche, only Shesterkin and McLeod are players that were drafted by their teams outside of the first round.
Building through the draft is no longer the recipe for the Cup, it's building through the top end of the draft. Bruins are the last team, and only team since Crosby's 2009 Penguins, to have no super impact players as a direct result of sucking and drafting high.
We saw with the Rangers and friends of yesteryears that you couldn't build a championship team through simply throwing money at free agents and outpriced players, 1994 notwithstanding, but you needed to be able to draft and develop like the Wings.
Now it should be obvious that you can't win without drafting high.
Since then the Hawks have already tried to retool and drafted Dach (3) while sending out high draft picks for Jones. The Kings have drafted Byfield (2) and Turcotte (5).
Hate to say it, but signing Gaudreau I think is just enough to keep the Flames in the perpetual state of mediocrity like Minnesota. At least if he doesn't sign I'd rather the Flames burn it down and go for Bedard.
I think in the end you just have to accept that the current system of draft lotteries is never going to be fair for everyone. Some teams will time their rebuild years perfectly and end up with the golden egg (McDavid, Stamkos, MacKinnon). Other team approach it the exact same way and end up with inferior players.
The cap has even further compounded this problem, no longer can teams spend a little more to try to field a deeper team, when the absence of a superstar is felt on their team. You add a play making 50-60 point second line Centre to Calgary and I think they have a chance to go a long way, but the cap won't allow it.
I actually think they should completely abolish the lottery. Have a draft committee oversee the entire process, and decide the drafting order for the league. So many teams have paid their dues, tried to be competitive to honor the true spirit of the game and have been rewarded with crap selections (Calgary, Vancouver, Minnesota, etc).
For these reasons i have become less passionate about watching hockey, i still enjoy watching our team and the battle of Alberta was a blast to watch, but if i have to endure another rebuild in Calgary and watch them get snubbed out of first overall picks again only to go to teams like Pittsburgh, Edmonton, Chicago, etc, screw it. Will i watch hockey, yes, but i am not going to be heavily invested in it as i once was for the reasons mentioned above.
The Following User Says Thank You to browntrout For This Useful Post:
If you look at the teams that made the conference finals, easy to see some pretty obvious "savings" for each (just like Gaudreau and Tkachuk for the Flames this year).
Shesterkin becoming a Vezina winner making 5.7M.
Zibanejad playing like a 10M player but making 5.3M. Kreider scoring 50 goals on a 6.5M contract
Miller, Lafrenière on ELC (especially Miller). Fox, Lindgren on RFA (especially Lindgren).
Zibanejad bumps up to 8.5M next year, but as long as Shesterkin remains a reasonable starter, the development of Lafreniere, Miller and Kakko on RFA contracts, their window really looks to be just opening.
The Oilers have Draisaitl making 8.5M. Puljujarvi, Yammoto, Bouchard making nothing and obviously Kane making peanuts for what he brought on the ice.
But Nurse's new contract kicks in next year, Kane if he signs will be making way more, Puljujarvi and Yammoto need to be re-signed. Unless Keith disappears, there's no reason to assume they will be as good next year. But I do think with the wonder twins making 21M combined, the Oilers have to actively try to make the team suck. Fortunately they have done it by signing Nurse to 9M+, relying on Smith, bringing in Keith and pretty much everything they have done except having their balls picked by Bettman.
Colorado has Mackinnon making 6.3M, Makar and Toews coming in at 13M. Less than 20M for those three players when they are probably worth over 30M as UFAs. And they still have another year with those caps. Unlike the Oilers though, as long as they do something about their goalies, they still should be expected to get better as Byram develops, and Makar is only 23! So even by the time MacKinnon is needed to be re-signed, they still are likely finding extreme value in Makar and Byram.
I just don't see the same type of savings from the Flames if they sign Gaudreau and Tkachuk to fair contracts. One year of RFA for Tkachuk won't move the needle much (especially with current contract). Tanev, Hanifin, Andersson and especially Lindholm I think are pretty favourable contracts. But two years left on most, and one with Lucic and Monahan making too much. I think if you sign Gaudreau, you're pretty much hoping to win in 2024 before Lindholm needs a new contract.
Of course if Monahan bounces back, Zary becomes on all star on a ELC contract, all bets off. But those are longshots at best.
Anytime I project contracts it seems that $9.5 mil threshold is the max the Flames can give Gaudreau and Tkachuk for things to make some sense. Once you go higher things just don’t add up.
Flames would need to dump Monahan and Lucic if you go higher. Already short on picks dumping a 2nd to get rid of 1 would leave us drafting in the 5th
Dump Toffolli and Mangiapane is an option but it’s not quite the cap savings and your looking at replacing them with Pelletier and Ruzicka.
The following year might be ok but there is no cap inflation coming soon so you’re still over paying your stars. By the time we get some cap relief Johnny will be 31 or 32 but teams like Edmonton will also get cap relief and players like Mcdavid will be even more valuable
It’s almost always certain when you first resign your stars it’s the back half of the 8 year deal that is your best bet to win. Especially if the cap is climbing yearly. Johnny being 29 means we need to win when he’s 33. Once again it’s a short window
In the first 4 years you need to draft very well and you have 0 room for error. Sign another Neal your basically screwed
There will always be teams that have elite players on better deals. We just don’t have Bryam or newhook coming through our system combined with Johnny and Tkachuk making more than Mackinnon rantanen Makar or Landeskog do per year just doesn’t add up.
It’s almost always certain when you first resign your stars it’s the back half of the 8 year deal that is your best bet to win. Especially if the cap is climbing yearly. Johnny being 29 means we need to win when he’s 33. Once again it’s a short window
If you are signing your "stars" when they are approaching UFA, the initial years are likely your only chance to win.
When Johnny is 33, the Flames are more likely rebuilding as their window has closed.
If you are signing your "stars" when they are approaching UFA, the initial years are likely your only chance to win.
When Johnny is 33, the Flames are more likely rebuilding as their window has closed.
Almost all teams take a step back when their stars get the raises Gaudreau and Tkachuk are about to get
Chicago LA were dynasty teams then their stars got paid and they been rebuilding since
Tampa hasn’t but their guys aren’t really over paid and they continue to draft very well and really have no terrible contracts.
If the Flames didn’t have Lucic and Monahan for another year things would be a lot better
If the Flames had some long term steal deals things would be different. Andersson is the only player who is locked up for more than 2 years, is young, and is easily worth his contract.
The Flames don’t have any elite prospects and are short picks
Resign Johnny but it needs to be $9.5 mil or less
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to Macho0978 For This Useful Post:
You work to keep everyone together and build around that as best you can
I agree with this. Flames just have to be smarter with the guys they bring in and hopefully some callups impress.. Flames took some major strides there is stll room to improve.
If you are signing your "stars" when they are approaching UFA, the initial years are likely your only chance to win.
I'm not sure I agree with that. If you look at Stamkos (8.5) and especially Hedman (7.8), those contracts just kept getting better year after year. Imagine if the cap didn't become flat due to COVID. Of course supplementing them with Kucherov, Point, Vas and friends turned them into a possible dynasty.
Washington finally won when Backstrom was near the end of his contract (6.7) and Carlson was on his last year (4). Two years later and they are making 9.2 and 8. (Counterpoint Kuznetzov first year contract).
Kings win with Kopitars 6.8 nearing its end, last season of Brown's 3.1 contract in 2014 (counterpoint Quick's first year). Kings win in 2012 was also Doughty's first year on his contract, but Conn Smythe Quick was second last year of his 1.8M contract.
Blackhawks win with Toews (6.3) and Kane (6.3) in their last year with them immediatley bumping up to 10.5 each. Their first win was also when they were on ELCs before bumping up to 6.3.
Bruins win with Marchand on last year of his ELC, Bergeron last year of his 4.75M contract, Horton one year left on his. Last year of Chara's but he would sign for slightly lower cap-hit with likely expectation of it being a retirement one lol. Counterpoint Lucic's first year of his contract.
Penguins win in 2009 with Malkin and Staal on last year of ELC, Scuderi on last year of low contract, Letang on ELC. Counterpoint Crosby, Fleury and Orpik's first years on new contracts.
Tampa's 2020 win had last year Vasilevskiy, last year Sergachev, first year Kucherov, McDonagh. 2021 then had first year Vas, Sergachev, but second last year Point, last year Coleman.
But again I think that's a problem with re-signing Gaudreau. Front years they don't have the Malkin, Quick or Marchands making peanuts to supplement the team and in the later years he's likely regressed to the point that he's not notably worth more than his contract AAV (probably lucky if he's worth it).
Almost all teams take a step back when their stars get the raises Gaudreau and Tkachuk are about to get
Chicago LA were dynasty teams then their stars got paid and they been rebuilding since
Tampa hasn’t but their guys aren’t really over paid and they continue to draft very well and really have no terrible contracts.
If the Flames didn’t have Lucic and Monahan for another year things would be a lot better
If the Flames had some long term steal deals things would be different. Andersson is the only player who is locked up for more than 2 years, is young, and is easily worth his contract.
The Flames don’t have any elite prospects and are short picks
Resign Johnny but it needs to be $9.5 mil or less
The bolded is generally true.
Interestingly, I'm not sure you can actually say that option B - losing your UFA star for nothing - has worked out any worse:
NYI - better after Tavares
STL - still very strong after Pietrangelo
CAR - still very strong after Dougie
CBJ - bad after Panarin/Bob, but not as totally awful as you might expect
ARI seems destined for the dumpster with or without Hall (who was a mid-season acquisition anyways...)
There aren't many other examples that come to mind...
I
I actually think they should completely abolish the lottery. Have a draft committee oversee the entire process, and decide the drafting order for the league. So many teams have paid their dues, tried to be competitive to honor the true spirit of the game and have been rewarded with crap selections (Calgary, Vancouver, Minnesota, etc).
I have been on this train since the salary cap came in. The draft lottery system is no longer needed for parity, and is in fact anti-parity. It rewards failure and entices franchises to put out an inferior product in order to hoard young talent.
I think the way to determine draft order and lottery odds should take into consideration a few different factors and not be just based on standings. Standings should be part of it, but also the points spread between teams in a given year. In not every season is the bottom team proportionately worse than than other bottom teams, at least not enough to over compensate for the difference by automatically giving them a phenomenal prospect over the next teams. Some times lower teams in the standings are also obviously on the verge of turning it around and getting another top pick is just overkill. Meanwhile franchises that always try to have the best product on the ice but can't get over the hump, are forced to stay mediocre or just luck out drafting a franchise player in a later round.
I think some formula should be derived to determine draft order that takes into consideration standings, point distribution in the standings, and previous draft positions (traded picks would count as belonging to the team that originally had the pick).
Going strictly by standings to determine odds and positions is just lazy
__________________
"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
Last edited by FlamesAddiction; 06-10-2022 at 11:47 PM.
The Following User Says Thank You to FlamesAddiction For This Useful Post:
I have been on this train since the salary cap came in. The draft lottery system is no longer needed for parity, and is in fact anti-parity. It rewards failure and entices franchises to put out an inferior product in order to hoard young talent.
I think the way to determine draft order and lottery odds should take into consideration a few different factors and not be just based on standings. Standings should be part of it, but also the points spread between teams in a given year. In not every season is the bottom team proportionately worse than than other bottom teams, at least not enough to over compensate for the difference by automatically giving them a phenomenal prospect over the next teams. Some times lower teams in the standings are also obviously on the verge of turning it around and getting another top pick is just overkill. Meanwhile franchises that always try to bet the best product on the ice but can't get over the hump, are forced to stay mediocre or just luck out drafting a franchise player in a later round.
I think some formula should be derived to determine draft order that takes into consideration standings, point distribution in the standings, and previous draft positions (traded picks would count as belonging to the team that originally had the pick).
Going strictly by standings to determine odds and positions is just lazy
Certainly off topic to the thread but it’s a great conversation.
I’ve converted to believing that in all team sports, draft position/lottery should be based on standings over the past THREE years. The teams who have not made the playoffs once at any point get first selections, and that could be determined by a lottery weighted on 3-year performance. Teams that made the playoffs once, twice etc would pick subsequently, again weighted lottery. Keep the format as is for teams who made the playoffs in the past season.
Edit: to add a layer of strategy, how about a ‘generational talent’ rule, whereby a team could defer their pick/position for a max 2 years and be guaranteed the same spot in future drafts. So for example, a team wins the lottery 2 years before McDufus is eligible and thinks he’s worth the wait. They end up with the decision of whether it’s worthwhile to sacrifice 2 years of first round picks prior to his selection to be guaranteed the option of drafting him. This way, a no-brainer generational talent ends up costing a team multiple 1st round picks, rather than just one.
Last edited by 2macinnis2; 06-10-2022 at 10:10 PM.
Certainly off topic to the thread but it’s a great conversation.
I’ve converted to believing that in all team sports, draft position/lottery should be based on standings over the past THREE years. The teams who have not made the playoffs once at any point get first selections, and that could be determined by a lottery weighted on 3-year performance. Teams that made the playoffs once, twice etc would pick subsequently, again weighted lottery. Keep the format as is for teams who made the playoffs in the past season.
Edit: to add a layer of strategy, how about a ‘generational talent’ rule, whereby a team could defer their pick/position for a max 2 years and be guaranteed the same spot in future drafts. So for example, a team wins the lottery 2 years before McDufus is eligible and thinks he’s worth the wait. They end up with the decision of whether it’s worthwhile to sacrifice 2 years of first round picks prior to his selection to be guaranteed the option of drafting him. This way, a no-brainer generational talent ends up costing a team multiple 1st round picks, rather than just one.
In a capped system why bother with a lottery. Everybody is a free agent to sign ELCs with no maximum, then the current rfa rules would kick in just sign whoever you want within the cap. Players would select places they would get paid as it would set their RFA value which would naturally favour rebuilding teams and marginal players would look for opportunities again favouring weaker teams. So naturally weaker teams would get better.
Initially you will see a lot of stupidity but players would naturally
The Following User Says Thank You to GGG For This Useful Post:
Interestingly, I'm not sure you can actually say that option B - losing your UFA star for nothing - has worked out any worse:
NYI - better after Tavares
STL - still very strong after Pietrangelo
CAR - still very strong after Dougie
CBJ - bad after Panarin/Bob, but not as totally awful as you might expect
ARI seems destined for the dumpster with or without Hall (who was a mid-season acquisition anyways...)
There aren't many other examples that come to mind...
NYI missed the playoffs this year.
Dougie was not even close to be the best Canes
STL is no longer a real contender. They fell into the bucket with Flames and Oilers. Pretender.
In a capped system why bother with a lottery. Everybody is a free agent to sign ELCs with no maximum, then the current rfa rules would kick in just sign whoever you want within the cap. Players would select places they would get paid as it would set their RFA value which would naturally favour rebuilding teams and marginal players would look for opportunities again favouring weaker teams. So naturally weaker teams would get better.
Initially you will see a lot of stupidity but players would naturally
I saw that wondered what the actual odds that he will have 2 years better than he was in any of the the 3 years prior to 2021-22 and that 6 years out he will be better than he was in 2020-21 and 2019-20.
That kind of raises the question as to why was was doing so poorly as a 26-27 year old and that he is projected to be significantly (2.9 versus 2.5, 2.4) better as a 34 year old?
I remember Lewis Gross hiring someone to try to boost Gaudreau’s value on here last time (which I found spectacularly distasteful). Makes me wonder if he would do the same this time, or maybe try to get an existing poster to fill the same role.
If this is true... I just want to say to Lewis Gross...my PMs are open and my rates are reasonable.
The Following 2 Users Say Thank You to PeteMoss For This Useful Post:
