2016 NHL Draft

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Based on physical development / junior experience / junior numbers, it might be safe to say:

-Dubois
-Tkachuk
-Brown

are close to NHL ready.

Nylander doesn't seem to be NHL ready, neither physically nor in terms of putting up the kind of numbers in the OHL that pure skill players do. He also hasn't accrued a lot of North American junior experience.

McLeod also definitely needs development time. I think even his biggest fans see him as a bit of a project.

Bean appears to need more development time both physically and otherwise.

Conroy flat out said Chychrun is not NHL ready.

Keller, Fabbro, and Jost would not be presumed to be NHL ready, as one is on the smaller side and the other two would experience a massive jump in level of play, all three I think would not be signed until after a year of college.

He's a long shot to be taken this high anyways, but I see Rubtsov as needing development time. Russian players generally accrue KHL experience before being brought over, although I believe Kucherov was imported to the CHL after his draft but again needed development time.

By process of elimination, that leaves Juolevi and Sergachyev as the last two potential players left.

Is that their 4-8?

Dubois / Brown / Sergachyev / Juolevi / Tkachuk?

Or is Nylander close to NHL ready?

I'm not sure Brown is NHL ready. I think those big centres should be long term projects as they fill out, improve agility, learn to use their size to their advantage, etc. And I think he certainly wouldn't be in consideration to make next year's team at all due to our depth unless we sustained some crazy injuries. Brown is not a guy I'd necessarily expect the Flames to have top 8. I think he's more likely to be top 8 for a team that badly needs top two line centre depth, especially with size. 4 years ago before we had Monahan and Bennett I think he could be a guy the Flames would've had high. I don't think we'll value him as highly as a team that badly desires a big centre. I'm guessing he's not in our top 8 but may be in the top 8 of some other teams.

I don't think you can eliminate Chychrun based on what Conroy said. Chychrun would probably be a late cut. He already has NHL size, skating and puck moving ability so there's not much holding him back. I'm not convinced he's in the Flames top 8 but I think he's a possibility.

I'm not sure the Flames will be as high on Nylander as other teams will, we don't seem to value those purely skilled, softer players as highly as others. I agree with you that he doesn't look NHL ready at all. Too thin, needs to add strength. I believe he can go straight to the AHL like Honka did.

Dubois, Tkachuk, Juolevi, Sergachev, Chychrun could be their 5-8 guys. It seems very reasonable. You have the two big forwards who fit our needs like a glove with their size/skill/power combo. Then you have arguably the top 3 d-men who all look to have 2/3 d-man upside. I think Treliving knows how valuable those top 3 defenders are.

If that is our list I wonder if the Flames look to move up from 6/7 to the 4/5 range in order to secure one of Tkachuk/Dubois. The Flames seem to think these guys are close to NHL ready and we need a power forward with skill right now. Trading up with EDM/VAN so we can get the forward and they move back and take the d-man seems to make sense for both sides if they are 4/5 and we are 6/7. Guess we can examine the trade up/down scenarios in more detail after tomorrow.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by bigrangy

Yup, I hope the Flames pick 8th.

If we're not winning one of the lotteries then the best case scenario is that TOR, CBJ and VAN win the lotteries and that puts EDM at #4 and CGY at #5. Outside of a lottery win this is the exact result I want

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I'm not sure Brown is NHL ready. I think those big centres should be long term projects as they fill out, improve agility, learn to use their size to their advantage, etc.

Brown is not a total project, though. Guys like him normally are, but he specifically is not. Now he may get better in the future but there is a lot to suggest he's 'close' to NHL ready:

2 CHL seasons played
1.25 PPG as a 17 year old including 53 assists in 59 games which is actually pretty significant.
Listed at 218 lbs on Eliteprospects right now

He appears to be physically mature, have about as much game experience at a Junior level as Bennett did (Bennett had 128 CHL GP, Brown has 120), and have figured out how to play at this level.

Normally guys like him are more late bloomers. Ryan Johansen who he's been compared with, for example was at:

1 CHL season played
0.97 PPG as a 17 year old
Listed at 189 lbs on draft day

I'm not saying Brown is ready to jump into a top 6 role right away but they could see him as a guy to develop from 3rd line forward.

And I think he certainly wouldn't be in consideration to make next year's team at all due to our depth unless we sustained some crazy injuries. Brown is not a guy I'd necessarily expect the Flames to have top 8. I think he's more likely to be top 8 for a team that badly needs top two line centre depth, especially with size. 4 years ago before we had Monahan and Bennett I think he could be a guy the Flames would've had high. I don't think we'll value him as highly as a team that badly desires a big centre. I'm guessing he's not in our top 8 but may be in the top 8 of some other teams.

Calgary has never based its "ledges" based on positional need. It may base the order within each tier based on that, but if they think a player is a top 8 talent and they have a plethora of center depth, that just means that player will be ranked 8th instead of 4th. Also neither Monahan nor Bennett nor Jankowski play the same style as Brown. Brown plays a Thornton style, heck even moving him to LW/RW could be an option. He may be an instant upgrade on Colborne and allow us to save 2+M in cap space on Colborne and spend that elsewhere, maybe even go big in UFA after Okposo or Yandle depending on how other things shake out.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Fan960 interview with Dan Marr, the head of NHL's Central Scouting Service or CSS.

http://www.sportsnet.ca/960/the-big-...err-steinberg/

Really good, long interview on all aspects of this draft and the top end. I recommend giving it a listen.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Calgary has never based its "ledges" based on positional need. It may base the order within each tier based on that, but if they think a player is a top 8 talent and they have a plethora of center depth, that just means that player will be ranked 8th instead of 4th.

Agreed. However its easily possible that the second tier is actually from 4-10 or 4-12. We've seen suggestions from scouts about that. The narrowing down to 8 then could be influenced by positional needs or philosophy.

Brown averaged out to 13th on Mackenzie's latest pre-lottery rankings. It suggests most teams/scouts don't see him in the top 10. I think teams "reach" for big centres on draft day because they are so hard to get. I think that is why there is recent talk of him going top 8-10. In this case I think its feasible Brown is outside the top 8 for Calgary and we're not a team that needs to reach for a big centre due to poor depth in that area. I could be wrong and Brown could be in our top 8, its certainly possible. But he's far from a consensus top 10 pick.

[oldschoolcalgary]

24 hrs before the draft, i would say that i am fine with any team winning except for Edmonton... I loathe Vancouver, but i'd be ok with them winning just based on the fact they've never had the 1st pick overall before.

Edmonton winning again would be sheer folly

[Mony]

I am prepared for Vancouver to get 1st overall and Matthews and Edmonton 2nd overall for Laine. Barf.

Should still be a great player available though if the Flames run in place or even fall back.

[Erratik]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Agreed. However its easily possible that the second tier is actually from 4-10 or 4-12. We've seen suggestions from scouts about that. The narrowing down to 8 then could be influenced by positional needs or philosophy.

Brown averaged out to 13th on Mackenzie's latest pre-lottery rankings. It suggests most teams/scouts don't see him in the top 10. I think teams "reach" for big centres on draft day because they are so hard to get. I think that is why there is recent talk of him going top 8-10. In this case I think its feasible Brown is outside the top 8 for Calgary and we're not a team that needs to reach for a big centre due to poor depth in that area. I could be wrong and Brown could be in our top 8, its certainly possible. But he's far from a consensus top 10 pick.

For what it's worth, Craig Button said today he could see Brown going 4th if the Leafs fell to that spot. Don't know if that means he now has him as the fourth best prospect or if it had more to do with Toronto's need for centermen.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by Poe969

That Burke interview was really good. I like how he just says things as they are and I'm glad he's part of the Flames. I can't wait to see him at the lottery tomorrow night

Agreed. And when we win I bet his face still remains stone cold.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Dan Marr in that interview I posted above says they see 4-19 or so are pretty close and on the same tier. Very interesting. Says a team might grab a guy at 18 or 19 that they have top 10 on their list

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Brown averaged out to 13th on Mackenzie's latest pre-lottery rankings. It suggests most teams/scouts don't see him in the top 10. I think teams "reach" for big centres on draft day because they are so hard to get. I think that is why there is recent talk of him going top 8-10. In this case I think its feasible Brown is outside the top 8 for Calgary and we're not a team that needs to reach for a big centre due to poor depth in that area. I could be wrong and Brown could be in our top 8, its certainly possible. But he's far from a consensus top 10 pick.

Multiple times now Flames have taken a a player Craig Button had higher on his rankings compared to McKenzie's list.

He had Poirier at 29 while McKenzie had him way at 46, and we took him at 22.
He had Baertschi at 7 while McKenzie had him at 16, and we took him at 13
He had Jankowski at 14, and we moved down from 14 to 21 to take him there.
He had Erixon way up at 10, McKenzie had Erixon at 28, we took Erixon at 23.
He had Andersson at 31, McKenzie had Andersson at 59, we gladly took Andersson at 51 and they revealed they had Andersson "way" higher on their internal list than where they took him.
He had Mason McDonald at 38 and Thatcher Demko at 53, and we took McDonald ahead of Demko. McKenzie's list had Demko at 27 and McDonald somewhere after, I'm not sure where as I can't find McKenzie's 2k14 list.
He had AOM at 43, I don't know where McKenzie had him but I do remember Treliving revealing that they had AOM way higher on their internal rankings than where they took him.
What's more, last year Button had Kyle Connor way up at 6th on his list, and the Flames revealed just how hard they scouted Connor for their pick at 15 to the point where even his teammate Ryan Lomberg grabbed their attention to the point of an AHL signing out of the USHL (which is very unusual).

Now some of those, we were a few spots away from where McKenzie had those players but in all of those we still took the player ahead of McKenzie's list and they were players Button had ranked ahead of McKenzie's list.

Craig has reached for Brown at 5, and I'm sure he's discussed Brown with Tod. We can't know the Flames' list for sure, but I seriously suspect that there's some relation between where (Craig) Button has Brown, and where (Tod) Button has Brown. I see Craig Button ranking Logan Brown at 5 as a strong (I dunno, 70-80%?) indicator that the Flames list also has Logan Brown ranked unusually high because recent-historically Button's rankings have been somewhat predictive of the Flames' drafts. Of course we'll never know the list if we win the lotto tommorow, but if we're picking 6th or 7th I would brace myself for a Logan Brown pick regardless how many centers we have.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Erratik

For what it's worth, Craig Button said today he could see Brown going 4th if the Leafs fell to that spot. Don't know if that means he now has him as the fourth best prospect or if it had more to do with Toronto's need for centermen.

Could mean that philosophically the Leafs could want to pair a huge centre in Brown with an average to below averaged sized one in Willy Nylander. It's hard to win in this league without having some size at top two line centre position.

I think Brown could go surprisingly high but as I said I think it'll be to a team with mediocre centre depth who really covets and needs size and skill at centre. The Flames aren't small at centre and already possess strong depth at that position and thus I don't think they'd covet him as much as another team might.

[Erratik]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Could mean that philosophically the Leafs could want to pair a huge centre in Brown with an average to below averaged sized one in Willy Nylander. It's hard to win in this league without having some size at top two line centre position.

I think Brown could go surprisingly high but as I said I think it'll be to a team with mediocre centre depth who really covets and needs size and skill at centre. The Flames aren't small at centre and already possess strong depth at that position and thus I don't think they'd covet him as much as another team might.

I agree he doesn't fill a need for us, but I would still rather have Brown than Nylander.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Agreed GranteedEV, it's always a possibility that somebody Button has high the Flames have high.

However I'm sure Craig Button has a lot of other scouting buddies from all his years in the business. It's equally conceivable that he has info about Brown being super high on a completely different team's list and he may have no idea where the Flames have Brown.

Can't say with any certainty. I like your guess though, I think it's well reasoned out. I still prefer my guess of course.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by Erratik

I agree he doesn't fill a need for us, but I would still rather have Brown than Nylander.

Agreed. Guess it should be time to do a pre-lottery ranking of my own for my own perception of Flames needs/philosophy. Don't think I've done one since the U18s.

1. Matthews (C)
2. Laine (W)
3. Puljujarvi(RW)
T4. Tkachuk (LW)
T4. Dubois (C/W)
T6. Chychrun (D)
T6. Juolevi (D)
T6. Sergachev (D)
9. Brown (C)
10. Nylander (W)

What a cop out right? I dunno I can't decide between Dubois/Tkachuk. Like Dubois's skating better but I like Tkachuk's jam around the net better. Haven't seen enough of the d-men to have a big preference for them. I would guess those 3 are the top d-men for the Flames.

Maybe I'm being too harsh on Nylander. I just think average sized goal scoring wingers aren't as hard to trade for as other positions. A lot of 30+ goal scorers have been traded in their careers. I'm a bit worried about his size/strength. I'm not as big a fan of the pure skilled winger with average size as other people are. I think potential top 3 dmen (Chychrun, Juolevi, Sergachev), potential 1st line forwards with size, skill, power and skating (Laine, Puljujarvi, Dubois, Tkachuk), and potential big top two line centres (Matthews, Brown) are all more valuable. I see Nylander as an Alex Kovalev type. Crazy skill and scores but he's not really a guy that drives you to the Cup finals and he's not the type of guy that would get a king's ransom in trade.

[Erratik]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Agreed. Guess it should be time to do a pre-lottery ranking of my own for my own perception of Flames needs/philosophy. Don't think I've done one since the U18s.

1. Matthews (C)
2. Laine (W)
3. Puljujarvi(RW)
T4. Tkachuk (LW)
T4. Dubois (C/W)
T6. Chychrun (D)
T6. Juolevi (D)
T6. Sergachev (D)
9. Brown (C)
10. Fabbro (D)
11. Nylander (W)

What a cop out right? I dunno I can't decide between Dubois/Tkachuk. Like Dubois's skating better but I like Tkachuk's jam around the net better. Haven't seen enough of the d-men to have a big preference for them. I would guess those 3 are the top d-men for the Flames.

Maybe I'm being too harsh on Nylander. I just think average sized goal scoring wingers aren't as hard to trade for as other positions. A lot of 30+ goal scorers have been traded in their careers. I'm a bit worried about his size/strength. I'm not as big a fan of the pure skilled winger with average size as other people are. I think potential top 3 dmen (Chychrun, Juolevi, Sergachev, Fabbro), potential 1st line forwards with size, skill, power and skating (Laine, Puljujarvi, Dubois, Tkachuk), and potential big top two line centres (Matthews, Brown) are all more valuable. I see Nylander as an Alex Kovalev type. Crazy skill and scores but he's not really a guy that drives you to the Cup finals and he's not the type of guy that would get a king's ransom in trade.

I have only seen Nylander play twice, but I was not impressed. He was soft on the puck and didn't seem that quick. I have a problem with smallish pure skill guys who don't have top notch speed, because they can't blow by defenders and they just tend to get knocked off the puck.

Maybe the kid will make me eat my words, but I hope we take anyone else.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by trackercowe

I would be okay with falling down a few spots as long as the Oilers and Canucks do not finish in the top 3 (especially Edmonton). Edmonton picking top three would be a nightmare scenario.

Originally Posted by bigrangy

Yup, I hope the Flames pick 8th.

You guys are nuts. I really hope the tire fire doesn't have any luck, but actively hoping we get a worse draft position so our rivals also do? That's horrible thinking.

I hope we get #1, and if not I hope we get #2, and if not I hope we get #3 and so on. We've a got a franchise to build here, we're trying to be better than 29 other teams, not 2.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Agreed. Guess it should be time to do a pre-lottery ranking of my own for my own perception of Flames needs/philosophy. Don't think I've done one since the U18s.

1. Matthews (C)
2. Laine (W)
3. Puljujarvi(RW)
T4. Tkachuk (LW)
T4. Dubois (C/W)
T6. Chychrun (D)
T6. Juolevi (D)
T6. Sergachev (D)
9. Brown (C)
10. Nylander (W)

I'd go out on a limb here and say the Flames list looks a lot different from this. I think the Flames will be a lot higher on certain players that meet the size and truculence needs of the team. I don't see any more than one of the defensemen being on the Flames top eight list. They just don't have anything that differentiates them from guys we have in our system, and that has to come into play. When you hear both Treliving and Burke say they have no fear of trading down, that tells me their top eight includes a few players not on this list. When they say they are willing to make a deal to trade down that gets them a player closer to contributing it also says they have specific needs they are trying to address. If the Flames don't get into the top three I think the Flames could take a player that some may be surprised with and probably won't be on this list.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by New Era

I'd go out on a limb here and say the Flames list looks a lot different from this. I think the Flames will be a lot higher on certain players that meet the size and truculence needs of the team. I don't see any more than one of the defensemen being on the Flames top eight list. They just don't have anything that differentiates them from guys we have in our system, and that has to come into play. When you hear both Treliving and Burke say they have no fear of trading down, that tells me their top eight includes a few players not on this list. When they say they are willing to make a deal to trade down that gets them a player closer to contributing it also says they have specific needs they are trying to address. If the Flames don't get into the top three I think the Flames could take a player that some may be surprised with and probably won't be on this list.

1. Who are these players that fit the need for size and truculence? Gauthier? Max Jones? Logan Stanley? I would love any of them if we dealt down.

2. Just because we have top 3 defensemen doesn't mean Treliving and the scouts will shy away from drafting another top 3 defenseman. They are super valuable commodities. It doesn't matter if we have good depth there, that's no reason to pass up potential top pairing d-men. You can never have too many d-men, they are always saying that.

3. They have to entertain trading down, they would be incompetent at their jobs if they didn't check to see the price to move up/down was and if a deal made sense. If we could get two players in the 4-20 range then it might make a lot of sense to move down.

4. I wouldn't rule out a surprise player either. Expect the unexpected at the draft. My top 8 just happens to be my guess, I could certainly be wrong.

[jaymac106]

[QUOTE=New Era;5738215]I'd go out on a limb here and say the Flames list looks a lot different from this. I think the Flames will be a lot higher on certain players that meet the size and truculence needs of the team. I don't see any more than one of the defensemen being on the Flames top eight list. They just don't have anything that differentiates them from guys we have in our system, and that has to come into play. When you hear both Treliving and Burke say they have no fear of trading down, that tells me their top eight includes a few players not on this list. When they say they are willing to make a deal to trade down that gets them a player closer to contributing it also says they have specific needs they are trying to address. If the Flames don't get into the top three I think the Flames could take a player that some may be surprised with and probably won't be on this list.[/QUOT

Of course it will look different and so would your list and my list, he is giving his opinion and we will never know the Flames list other than the selection that is picked! Unless you are a scout, don't assume you know better.