I thought this video was a good balanced summary of Shia Islamist ideology in Iran and gives a bit of an understanding of why the regime won't easily back down. Historical and religious context is important to understand why Iran having nuclear weapons gives neighbouring countries more anxiety than other countries in the region. As always, consider the source and open to criticism.
Also, don't take this an me justifying the U.S. or Israel engaging in a conflict like this. I think what they are doing is equally as dangerous and isn't solving anything. It's more just a response to critics when they question why Iran in particular is feared compared to other nuclear countries.
I mean all of this equally applies to the US Israel and Pakistan, at this point the rational nuclaer powers are China and Russia, the UK and France
I always seem to read his posts in a Pinky and the Brain voice
Moments ago, at my direction, the United States Central Command executed one of the most powerful bombing raids in the History of the Middle East, and totally obliterated every MILITARY target in Iran's crown jewel, Kharg Island. Our Weapons are the most powerful and sophisticated that the World has ever known but, for reasons of decency, I have chosen NOT to wipe out the Oil Infrastructure on the Island. However, should Iran, or anyone else, do anything to interfere with the Free and Safe Passage of Ships through the Strait of Hormuz, I will immediately reconsider this decision. During my First Term, and currently, I rebuilt our Military into the Most Lethal, Powerful, and Effective Force, by far, anywhere in the World. Iran has NO ability to defend anything that we want to attack — There is nothing they can do about it! Iran will NEVER have a nuclear weapon, nor will it have the ability to threaten the United States of America, the Middle East or, for that matter, the World! Iran's Military, and all others involved with this Terrorist Regime, would be wise to lay down their arms, and save what's left of their country, which isn't much! Thank you for your attention to this matter. President
DONALD J. TRUMP
This is where 90% of Iran's refining and oil exports occur (due to how shallow the coast around Iran is). It's the engine of their oil output.
This means several extremely crucial things
USA is clearly planning to take over Iran's oil infrastructure for itself (or at the very minimum completely severing Iran out of its oil export ability)
It's also the perfect location to plan a ground invasion of Iran and makes a ground invasion almost inevitable at this point (especially if the intent is the full takeover of the island).
It's a significant escalation, the video of Bessent after coming back from an urgent discussion with Trump, he likely knew the economic repercussions of the move would be immense.
Ironically, this Guardian article from 2 days ago explains why Kharg would be such a bad target.
Experts say bombing or capturing the site with US forces would be likely to cause a sustained increase to already surging oil prices, as it would amount to taking the entirety of Iran’s daily crude exports offline.
“We may see the $120 a barrel price we saw on Monday heading to the $150 if Kharg were attacked,” said Neil Quilliam, with the Chatham House thinktank. “It’s too vital for global energy markets”.
It's effectively semi-permanently removing / locking out 4% of the entire world's oil market for the foreseeable future (Canada sits at 6% for context). Adding this to the 20%-25% that the Strait of Hormuz represents excluding Iran and is expected to continue to have mass disruption, the world is not ready for the sheer shock.
Quote:
“If the US were to seize it, then you are separating the Iranian oil industry. Iran would have production but couldn’t export, while the US wouldn’t be able to produce. That would set markets in a tailspin; that’s a real standoff,” the analyst said.
China is one of the most impacted by this, and can't possible be happy or sit on the sidelines forever. And with China controlling 1/3 of the world's shipping fleet, this will have significant supply chain disruption and price escalation.
Iran has said any attack on its oil and energy infrastructure will lead to retaliatory strikes on facilities in the region owned by oil companies that have American shares or cooperate with the United States, state media reported, citing Tehran’s Khatam al-Anbiya military command headquarters.
Quote:
The United States’ strike on Iran’s Kharg Island, a critical crude export terminal, has escalated the stakes in the war and could ultimately send oil prices “out of control,” a retired army official told CNN.
“It means that we have raised the stakes in this war considerably. It’s gone simply from a ‘take out the military, take out the regime’ but now we’re trying to take out the economic lifeblood of this country, potentially,” former US Army brigadier general Mark Kimmitt said.
Kimmitt said the US is holding the island “hostage” to ensure that Iran allows ships through the Strait of Hormuz, whose closure has already sent crude oil prices soaring.
However, if that oil infrastructure is targeted, Kimmitt said “it is clear that Iran is going to attack the rest of the infrastructure in the Middle East.”
“And at that point, the prices of oil will just go out of control,” he added.
Im guessing Iran is responding to the Kharg island bombing
Iranian regime is issuing "evacuation warnings" to residents of the United Arab Emirates, calling on them to evacuate from three ports and the adjacent areas in the country: Jebel Ali Port in Dubai, Khalifa Port in Abu Dhabi, and Fujairah Port. First warning of its kind.
