WCR2: Dallas Stars (C2) vs Winnipeg Jets (C1) - STARS WIN 4-2

[Groot]

Paulie is just continuing his long-standing position that the only way to have success is scorched earth rebuild, and Dallas having success is counter to that so he has to downplay Dallas every chance he can.

Of the 8 teams left, how many sold off all vets to do a scorched earth rebuild? I see none. Edmonton just kept sucking, they didn't trade away everyone to get bad and draft higher, they just were bad for years.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

You said they coasted into the playoffs when they had a shot at 1st and lost 8 in a row. Barely got by Colorado on home ice. It’s been Rantanen who I was very wrong about and pretty much nothing else.

It’s not just this game they never showed they had another level. Even in games vs us they never looked like the juggernaut people say they are.

(Likely) back to back conference finals.

But yeah, not a good team, somehow.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by vilzeh

I just hate that ” they fold against Oilers ” narrative. I can’t stand the Oilers, I don’t think i’ve ever watched an Oilers game, if it wasnt vs Flames, so I kind of trust the opinions in this Forum about the Oilers. ”They can’t play 5on5” ”its just McDavid and Draisaitl”, Yet when you look at the deep stats, they have like 3 lines in the top5 in these playoffs. How is that possible? Genuinely asking, I don’t care to watch them, I loathe them too much, but I always have my hopes up come playoffs time that they are pretenders, because everyone here says so, I’ve lost faith.

Yeah, somehow the Stars are deep and the Oilers are not, even when the actual numbers say the exact opposite.

The Oilers forwards have 50 points when you count out the top3, while their top 3 (RNH, Drai and McDavid) have 41 points.

With Stars the situation is 36 points for the first line and 36 points for the rest, only Toronto is even more top heavy, and Dallas has been even more reliant on their first line the later the playoffs have gone.

Oilers top forwards are better, they have better offensive depth and middle of the pack defense. They should probably be considered the favorites against Dallas, who's main advantage is goaltending and special teams. That gap in goaltending is really big though. Plus with Heiskanen back, that improves Dallas in both offense and defense, even if that improvement isn't visible in the stats yet.

(Btw, Florida, who even is their top 3? They have 8 forwards with exactly 8 points, that's ridiculous )

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Groot

Paulie is just continuing his long-standing position that the only way to have success is scorched earth rebuild, and Dallas having success is counter to that so he has to downplay Dallas every chance he can.

Of the 8 teams left, how many sold off all vets to do a scorched earth rebuild? I see none. Edmonton just kept sucking, they didn't trade away everyone to get bad and draft higher, they just were bad for years.

Toronto rebuilt. Florida rebuilt. Washington was rebuilding and got a generational player who the set the record for all time goals and still got players through the draft. Edmonton fluked into a generational player while they tried to compete.

Winnipeg is a weird one as they got gifted lottery picks for being a so called expansion team. Dallas got lucky and won a lottery and has drafted well but had to trade for Rantanen to get a star forward. Carolina is weird they have had a high picks but they have let vets walk. Vegas was expansion team that was given the best expansion rules ever so they could easily build a EA Sports team.

Common trend with all those teams listed minus maybe Washington and depends what you think about Carolina and Dallas.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by vilzeh

I just hate that ” they fold against Oilers ” narrative. I can’t stand the Oilers, I don’t think i’ve ever watched an Oilers game, if it wasnt vs Flames, so I kind of trust the opinions in this Forum about the Oilers. ”They can’t play 5on5” ”its just McDavid and Draisaitl”, Yet when you look at the deep stats, they have like 3 lines in the top5 in these playoffs. How is that possible? Genuinely asking, I don’t care to watch them, I loathe them too much, but I always have my hopes up come playoffs time that they are pretenders, because everyone here says so, I’ve lost faith.

Teams are certainly folding against them. Outside of Florida no one takes the game to them. They get spoked by McDavid and Draisaitl and just give them to much respect.

Just go back to the series against the Flames. The Flames just stop doing what they did well. We won 9-5 in the regular season and 9-6 in game 1 and they got away from just playing and pushing back because the Oilers and their stars scored.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Paulie Walnuts

Teams are certainly folding against them. Outside of Florida no one takes the game to them. They get spoked by McDavid and Draisaitl and just give them to much respect.

Just go back to the series against the Flames. The Flames just stop doing what they did well. We won 9-5 in the regular season and 9-6 in game 1 and they got away from just playing and pushing back because the Oilers and their stars scored.

Yeah unfortunately there's simply too much of a pattern to ignore. Save for the Panthers who only barely squeaked out their win, the rest of the teams that have played the Oilers in the past few seasons playoffs have played scared to get burned by McDavid and Draisaitl and I don't expect the Stars to change that as they will be lucky to win 2 games and even that may required Rantanen in god mode. The Panthers are easily the cockiest team in the league which is why they could continue to stick with what they do best but even they kind of wilted as the series went on winning only 1 of the last 4 games of that series. It's looking like this could be the year unfortunately.

[Toonage]

You used to have to worry about McDavid & Draisaitl and not worry about their depth. Shut down those two and you were good. Now? You have to worry about their depth.

Get a team that has equal depth to match, which is also producing, and has strong goaltending and you have a shot I suppose. Right now that might be Dallas or Florida. And Dallas' depth is just starting to come through with the Jets double covering Rantanen.

[CliffFletcher]

Teams don’t stop trying when they play the Oilers. I think it’s just that Knoblauch has turned out to be a good coach. He gets enough out of the foot soldiers on the roster that McDavid and Draisaitl can do their thing. This playoffs the Oilers are outscoring the opposition 16-9 at even strength when those two are on the bench.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Teams don’t stop trying when they play the Oilers. I think it’s just that Knoblauch has turned out to be a good coach. He gets enough out of the foot soldiers on the roster that McDavid and Draisaitl can do their thing. This playoffs the Oilers are outscoring the opposition 16-9 at even strength when those two are on the bench.

Yes, Henriques and Brown have been on a heater - we'll see how long that continues.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Teams don’t stop trying when they play the Oilers. I think it’s just that Knoblauch has turned out to be a good coach. He gets enough out of the foot soldiers on the roster that McDavid and Draisaitl can do their thing. This playoffs the Oilers are outscoring the opposition 16-9 at even strength when those two are on the bench.

A good coach doesn't burn out your two top stars by playing them almost 30 minutes a game and the full PP. You could tell last year in the finals against Florida those two guys had nothing left in the tank. Even if they beat the Stars and get to the finals it's going to be the same story this year.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

A good coach doesn't burn out your two top stars by playing them almost 30 minutes a game and the full PP. You could tell last year in the finals against Florida those two guys had nothing left in the tank. Even if they beat the Stars and get to the finals it's going to be the same story this year.

I think that's why McDavid was "injured" down the stretch. Basically load management so they could play the hell out of him in the playoffs.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Toonage

You used to have to worry about McDavid & Draisaitl and not worry about their depth. Shut down those two and you were good. Now? You have to worry about their depth.

Get a team that has equal depth to match, which is also producing, and has strong goaltending and you have a shot I suppose. Right now that might be Dallas or Florida. And Dallas' depth is just starting to come through with the Jets double covering Rantanen.

Oilers depth wasn't that special in the regular season though. I think there's a lot to it that teams just get freaked out against them when the stakes are high.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Yeah unfortunately there's simply too much of a pattern to ignore. Save for the Panthers who only barely squeaked out their win, the rest of the teams that have played the Oilers in the past few seasons playoffs have played scared to get burned by McDavid and Draisaitl and I don't expect the Stars to change that as they will be lucky to win 2 games and even that may required Rantanen in god mode. The Panthers are easily the cockiest team in the league which is why they could continue to stick with what they do best but even they kind of wilted as the series went on winning only 1 of the last 4 games of that series. It's looking like this could be the year unfortunately.

Yup and I hate that. It's time coaches adapt and understand top players will do superstar things when you play scared or when you are in their face. You have a better chance being aggressive and pushing them back. Instead of sitting back and giving them room and space and you lose your check and make a mistake and get burnt. So the same results and now your team is scared to push forward and lesser likes like Kane, Perry yuck start making you pay.

These guys will get their points. Nathan MacKinnon got his points and up until the 3d Dallas was playing a very cautious scared game, and slow. Rantanen pushed back and they ending up winning.

[Paulie Walnuts]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Teams don’t stop trying when they play the Oilers. I think it’s just that Knoblauch has turned out to be a good coach. He gets enough out of the foot soldiers on the roster that McDavid and Draisaitl can do their thing. This playoffs the Oilers are outscoring the opposition 16-9 at even strength when those two are on the bench.

No their depth is poor and if teams actually push back and get possession on them they will get exposed.

Back up and giving Connor and Draisaitl room does nothing, they wil lstill get points. But if you start to wear them out in their end, and have them start shifts in a chase mode they will get less touches and not the same burst through the NZ. They will likely still get their points, but you wont get torched by Perry and Kane. But the more you turn them around and have them chase the puck in their end at the start of shifts the better shot you have.

Collapsing and allowing them to attack, and dumping it in for line changes you give their crappy depth the momentum.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Itse

Yeah, somehow the Stars are deep and the Oilers are not, even when the actual numbers say the exact opposite.

The Oilers forwards have 50 points when you count out the top3, while their top 3 (RNH, Drai and McDavid) have 41 points.

With Stars the situation is 36 points for the first line and 36 points for the rest, only Toronto is even more top heavy, and Dallas has been even more reliant on their first line the later the playoffs have gone.

Oilers top forwards are better, they have better offensive depth and middle of the pack defense. They should probably be considered the favorites against Dallas, who's main advantage is goaltending and special teams. That gap in goaltending is really big though. Plus with Heiskanen back, that improves Dallas in both offense and defense, even if that improvement isn't visible in the stats yet.

(Btw, Florida, who even is their top 3? They have 8 forwards with exactly 8 points, that's ridiculous )

Dallas has played better teams

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

A good coach doesn't burn out your two top stars by playing them almost 30 minutes a game and the full PP. You could tell last year in the finals against Florida those two guys had nothing left in the tank. Even if they beat the Stars and get to the finals it's going to be the same story this year.

I suppose. It's awfully revisionist to say the Oilers ran out of gas. They barely fell short of winning the cup.

[dino7c]

Poor Jets, thread is all about the Oilers

[Locke]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Poor Jets, thread is all about the Oilers

The Jets are used to it. It used to be all about Benny and everyone forgot about the Jets.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Yeah unfortunately there's simply too much of a pattern to ignore. Save for the Panthers who only barely squeaked out their win, the rest of the teams that have played the Oilers in the past few seasons playoffs have played scared to get burned by McDavid and Draisaitl and I don't expect the Stars to change that as they will be lucky to win 2 games and even that may required Rantanen in god mode. The Panthers are easily the cockiest team in the league which is why they could continue to stick with what they do best but even they kind of wilted as the series went on winning only 1 of the last 4 games of that series. It's looking like this could be the year unfortunately.

I feel Dallas has quite a lot untapped potential, so I wouldn't write them off.

In the regular season, the teams leading goal scorers were, in order, Robertson, Johnston, Duchene, Hintz, Marchment and Dadonov, all putting up at least 20 goals.

Currently Robertson, Duchene, Marchment and Dadonov have 2 goals between them in the postseason, so it's not even really that their depth is struggling, their best scorers through most of the season have been shooting blanks. (Which likely says a lot about the quality of the opponents.) Rantanen was on a barely 20 goal pace after the trade to Dallas.

Based on regular season numbers, you could actually argue that Granlund-Hintz-Rantanen IS their depth scoring

It would actually be somewhat anomalous if this continues, you would expect their regular season top guys to start looking like their actual top guys at some point, and if that happens while Granlund-Hintz-Rantanen continue ripping it up and Oettinger plays as good as he has, I don't see Oilers having much of a chance.

[vilzeh]

I get that, when Flames played them, they absolutely played scared, that was awful to watch. So if these remaining teams do the same, there’s only one outcome.