Johnny Gaudreau - re-sign or trade?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Johnny forthrightly says that he loves it here, wants to stay and would be great to spend his career here

Let’s bring in the Wizard for a second opinion

We are doomed

Well someone has to figure out whether he will stay at a workable price because the decision has to be made before (a) you make a huge trade for Eichel and/or (b) before his NTC kicks in. Or are you suggesting he will stay no matter what contract is offered because he made friendly comments on garbage bag day?

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

Johnny forthrightly says that he loves it here, wants to stay and would be great to spend his career here

Let’s bring in the Wizard for a second opinion

We are doomed

I'm not the biggest Treliving booster, but he's generally done a good job in retaining players on decent contracts...not so great on UFA contracts, however, that's always the issue with signing UFAs as opposed to developing your own players.

Tkachuk's contract has gotten some ire of late, but it was a different world back then. At the time, I think most fans thought it was a pretty reasonable contract...

As for Johnny, I am sure he is being earnest, however, cash is king... I think Brodie was more or less saying similar things at the same point in his contract as well.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

I'm not the biggest Treliving booster, but he's generally done a good job in retaining players on decent contracts...not so great on UFA contracts, however, that's always the issue with signing UFAs as opposed to developing your own players.

Tkachuk's contract has gotten some ire of late, but it was a different world back then. At the time, I think most fans thought it was a pretty reasonable contract...

As for Johnny, I am sure he is being earnest, however, cash is king... I think Brodie was more or less saying similar things at the same point in his contract as well.

I’ve heard many players, including Flames, say they fully intended to re-up, but then a deal just couldn’t get done.

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

I don't think he lost it, I just think he gets shutdown by teams that gameplan for him.

His PPG are much lower against teams he plays most frequently (PAC division teams, playoffs, this year's CAD division). https://www.hockey-reference.com/pla...drjo01/splits/

296p in 288gp +19 against the other 3 divs (not sure if/how this year factors in)

136p in 166gp even against the PAC.

EVG per division are 25/90gp, 28/87gp, 32/121gp, and 33/166gp (PAC)

He's also much more productive at home 101G 276P +23 vs. 69G 218P -2 on the road (260 games of each). I imagine this is true for most players, but probably not often to this degree. I've run the numbers on other key Flames, and nobody is similar in productivity by division, not even Monahan (didn't look at home vs. away).


We can argue whether it's more of an indictment of him or the team writ large, but I'm not sure it really matters. For whatever reason, it seems we can't count on him to deliver in the most important games to the same level he shows other times. IMO we would be chasing our tails by continuing to build around him as a cornerstone.

Doesn't every player get shutdown if you game plan against them? Even Connor McDavid was shut down for the better part of 3 games vs the Jets and this is a guy who had nearly 2 ppg this season and who was playing with Leon Draisaitl.

I still don't get why it always falls on the shoulders of one player. He's one player out of 3 on the line? Like, if the entire line is shut down, why does the crux of the blame automatically fall on Gaudreau? or McDavid for that matter?

Maybe I'll never understand it, but I'm glad GMs tend to look at it differently. Their initial instinct is to find the stars more help, not trade the stars because they're pissed they couldn't get it done.

I'm of the similar mindset, I think Gaudreau does more than his share for the team on a shift by shift/nightly basis. He gets game planned, he gets the attention, he takes the double teams, he makes life easier on his line mates and thus helps elevate the players around him. It's a two way street though and they need to help him out as well and I don't think he gets equitable reciprocation. So I find it hard to ever really pin things all on him.

If anything, the Flames need more Gaudreaus, more Tkachuks. These are the play drivers that can conjure plays out of nothing and break games wide open. So, if your team is only counting on one or two guys in the end, doesn't even matter if you have the best in the world in McDavid and Draisaitl, you're still gonna fail because Stanley Cups go to the best teams, not the best players.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Doesn't every player get shutdown if you game plan against them?.

I guess that ‘s why Wayne Gretzky finished with 0 lifetime points, teams just game planned against him.


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[868904]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I guess that ‘s why Wayne Gretzky finished with 0 lifetime points, teams just game planned against him.


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Did Gretzky ever play on a team without another Hall of Famer (or two) on the roster?

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by 868904

Did Gretzky ever play on a team without another Hall of Famer (or two) on the roster?

Gretzky won numerous cups after leaving an Edmonton team that had multiple HoF players in their prime. He clearly showed supporting cast is not important and any player can carry a team or line themselves

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Gretzky won numerous cups after leaving an Edmonton team that had multiple HoF players in their prime. He clearly showed supporting cast is not important and any player can carry a team or line themselves

Ummmmm

[GS Skier]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Gretzky won numerous cups after leaving an Edmonton team that had multiple HoF players in their prime. He clearly showed supporting cast is not important and any player can carry a team or line themselves

That's just outright and rather obviously wrong Gretsky NEVER won a cup outside Edmonton. Messier won in NYR and one more with Gretky gone! Messier was the real driver PROVING the point you can't just have 1 or 2 superstars. They 3-4 others and great depth at that time as there was no cap.

[mennoknight]

guys. I think he's joking.

[Hackey]

I didn't hear exactly what Johnny said but maybe he does want to stay. Or maybe he's just not closing the door on a potential deal or potential leverage on the open market. If he said anything but he wanted to stay he would also have to deal with all the stuff that comes along with that for an entire year. I'm taking it with a grain of salt because I think he has plenty of reasons to say the right thing regardless of his true intentions. It's smart for business and smart for his own sanity.

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by Hackey

I didn't hear exactly what Johnny said but maybe he does want to stay. Or maybe he's just not closing the door on a potential deal or potential leverage on the open market. If he said anything but he wanted to stay he would also have to deal with all the stuff that comes along with that for an entire year. I'm taking it with a grain of salt because I think he has plenty of reasons to say the right thing regardless of his true intentions. It's smart for business and smart for his own sanity.

words I could find:

“If Tree and the owners are happy with the way I’ve played here in the past six to seven years and it’s something we can figure out," Gaudreau said at the Flames' end-of-season player avails. "I would love to do that. I love the city of Calgary. I love playing here. I don’t think I’ve ever once said I haven’t wanted to be here.”

sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/johnny-gaudreau-love-re-sign-calgary-flames/

again, all players pretty much always say this going into their last contract...so you do have to take it with a grain of salt...

its a bit of a rorschach test, how someone interprets that quote

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

words I could find:


sportsnet.ca/nhl/article/johnny-gaudreau-love-re-sign-calgary-flames/

again, all players pretty much always say this going into their last contract...so you do have to take it with a grain of salt...

its a bit of a rorschach test, how someone interprets that quote

They really don't though.
Johnny's comments are far more to the point and positive than you usually get.
It's usually a much more generic, "we'll sit down and see where we're at".

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

They really don't though.
Johnny's comments are far more to the point and positive than you usually get.
It's usually a much more generic, "we'll sit down and see where we're at".

There are also some words doing a lot of work in that quote. Namely, “If... it’s something we can work out”

The “I never have said I didn’t want to be here” is interesting. It’s a shot at Francis IMO.

[direwolf]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

Doesn't every player get shutdown if you game plan against them? Even Connor McDavid was shut down for the better part of 3 games vs the Jets and this is a guy who had nearly 2 ppg this season and who was playing with Leon Draisaitl.

I still don't get why it always falls on the shoulders of one player. He's one player out of 3 on the line? Like, if the entire line is shut down, why does the crux of the blame automatically fall on Gaudreau? or McDavid for that matter?

Maybe I'll never understand it, but I'm glad GMs tend to look at it differently. Their initial instinct is to find the stars more help, not trade the stars because they're pissed they couldn't get it done.

I'm of the similar mindset, I think Gaudreau does more than his share for the team on a shift by shift/nightly basis. He gets game planned, he gets the attention, he takes the double teams, he makes life easier on his line mates and thus helps elevate the players around him. It's a two way street though and they need to help him out as well and I don't think he gets equitable reciprocation. So I find it hard to ever really pin things all on him.

If anything, the Flames need more Gaudreaus, more Tkachuks. These are the play drivers that can conjure plays out of nothing and break games wide open. So, if your team is only counting on one or two guys in the end, doesn't even matter if you have the best in the world in McDavid and Draisaitl, you're still gonna fail because Stanley Cups go to the best teams, not the best players.

My thoughts exactly! Excellent post.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

There are also some words doing a lot of work in that quote. Namely, “If... it’s something we can work out”

The “I never have said I didn’t want to be here” is interesting. It’s a shot at Francis IMO.

If we are going to read in to it, let’s lean in

How about the underlying ‘if Tre and the owners like what I have done over the past 6 to 7 years’?

It implies that Tre uses the owners as his negotiating tool, much like the used car salesman who has to go ask his manager

We know Tkachuk got a bridge deal with a QO of 9 million as a RFA after 1 career year of 77 points in 80 games. That’s how he got rewarded for something Tre and the owners presumably liked. Johnny has exceeded that point total in 3 of the past 6 years. And he is a UFA. And was the team’s leading scorer. Is there a case for anyone to be paid higher?

If we want to find things to read in to, that sentence is a powder keg

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I guess that ‘s why Wayne Gretzky finished with 0 lifetime points, teams just game planned against him.


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Shutdown doesn’t mean shutout. McDavid still ended up ppg but that’s about 50% of what the Oilers expected/needed from him. But that’s mostly a team problem, the Oilers are a clearly flawed team right now who rely on a few players to do too much.

As for Gretzky, the greatest player of all time never ended up winning a Cup after 1988.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

If we are going to read in to it, let’s lean in

How about the underlying ‘if Tre and the owners like what I have done over the past 6 to 7 years’?

It implies that Tre uses the owners as his negotiating tool, much like the used car salesman who has to go ask his manager

We know Tkachuk got a bridge deal with a QO of 9 million as a RFA after 1 career year of 77 points in 80 games. That’s how he got rewarded for something Tre and the owners presumably liked. Johnny has exceeded that point total in 3 of the past 6 years. And he is a UFA. And was the team’s leading scorer. Is there a case for anyone to be paid higher?

If we want to find things to read in to, that sentence is a powder keg

By lean in you mean make up a laughable suggestion that Treliving uses the owners as a negotiation tactic? I am not sure if you are serious with that comment but lean towards yea because you love to take any shot at Treliving you can even if you are making up what you are fabricating the reason you are taking a shot.

Johnny knows who actually pays him his money and knows they ultimately have to be onboard with paying him his current and future contract. I don’t read it in to anything other than mentioning the stakeholders who really have the say on whether or not they want to engage in the negotiation Johnny and his camp are hoping for.


Tkachuk’s contract came in a different economic landscape and was very much in line with many other players in his position like Laine, Point, Boeser, Mieier, Werenski who signed bridge deals with high QO’s. Who was the last Flame to score 34 goals and 77pts in their 20/21 aged season? Tkachuk also did that on the second line playing the tougher even strength matchups that the top line couldn’t handle.

To me that sentence is a powder keg in your mind only

[activeStick]

Man, this is going to be a tough decision for Treliving. Changes should be made to the core, and Johnny is probably the most talented piece of the core. With a year left on his deal, coupled with the situation of other core players, Johnny's probably going to give you the biggest return in a trade. But then, don't you want to add skill and ability to the line up? Do you do that by moving out the guy who arguably is at the top of the current roster in those aspects?

Johnny also played great after the initial adjustment to Sutter's style, so the sample size is small, but it appears like he'd be fine in the system. If you believe what Johnny and Sutter have said to the media, Johnny wants to stay here long term if management is happy with him and Sutter is happy with his play.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

If we are going to read in to it, let’s lean in

How about the underlying ‘if Tre and the owners like what I have done over the past 6 to 7 years’?

It implies that Tre uses the owners as his negotiating tool, much like the used car salesman who has to go ask his manager

We know Tkachuk got a bridge deal with a QO of 9 million as a RFA after 1 career year of 77 points in 80 games. That’s how he got rewarded for something Tre and the owners presumably liked. Johnny has exceeded that point total in 3 of the past 6 years. And he is a UFA. And was the team’s leading scorer. Is there a case for anyone to be paid higher?

If we want to find things to read in to, that sentence is a powder keg

Another way to read that could be “if Tree and Owners think I’m good enough to deserve the 8x9M I’m demanding...”


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