2021 NFL off season thread

[devo22]

I think it's easy to say "well he shouldn't have signed that extension in the first place", but he's already had two ACLs in his career. Look at what happened to Dak. I don't blame players for taking the financial security.

[The Big Chill]

Watson has some leverage, but not a ton. Houston can just not trade him if the right offer isn’t there.

[Senator Clay Davis]

That's the tradeoff though, you take the money and you lose the freedom. It's the risk every prospective FA has to decide on. And sometimes, like the Wentz and Goff, it fails spectacularly for the team and puts them in a hole. At least Deshaun was smart enough to get a NTC so he can control his exit to a degree.

[Sainters7]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Lol at the Saints being third favorites. If the Saints get him the NFL should just go ahead and eliminate the cap.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1354816053063237641

Haha yeah, I didn't want to copy & paste it because its a paid site and he's just starting up after going rogue, but the GOAT of Saints writers Nick Underhill released an article this week breaking down the roster explicitly one by one and where they can save money, they can basically put themselves in a situation where they could even have as much as $20 million in cap room. I'm telling ya Loomis is a freakin wizard, the cap isn't real in NOLA lol.

Its definitely going to bite them eventually and their D will take a hit in UFA, but the national writers acting like this is judgement day for the Saints are misinformed as to how well Loomis manipulates contracts down there. Between that and how aggressive they are, I'm not at all surprised they're in the Watson sweepstakes, despite how ridiculous that seems with their cap situation. Could even be a big roster style trade, like when they got rid of Jimmy Graham. Saints are seriously lacking in draft capital, but have plenty of capital in the way of impact players in their prime.

Now by no means do I think they'll land him, but I'm not surprised to see them in the running.

[GirlySports]

Originally Posted by The Big Chill

Watson has some leverage, but not a ton. Houston can just not trade him if the right offer isn’t there.

Houston doesnt have much either. "#### you go sit" works if it's LeVeon Bell, not when its your QB and you're looking at the #2 overall.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Why would they force him to sit? They obviously don't want to trade him. If he isn't dealt he will be starting next year, simple as. If he wants to sit out and force his way out he will lose a ton of money. That's the Texans leverage pretty much.

[ResAlien]

Which is where my oops I did it again interception plan kicks in!

[Senator Clay Davis]

But tanking helps them lol. If he wants to chip in to 0-16 so they can draft a QB then great. His value won't go down from intentionally playing like crap, and if it does then he'll be buried on the Texans the whole contract, and they will franchise him for a few years after that, or he will lose a significant amount of money on his next deal if they don't. They have a few plays to drag this out.

[The Big Chill]

Originally Posted by ResAlien

Which is where my oops I did it again interception plan kicks in!

Ya well nobody will want his contract if he isn’t playing like a top 5 QB. His only option to force a trade is to sit out. Houston shouldn’t rush into trading him if the return isn’t good enough because we will suck next year regardless.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I mean we're all leaving out one crucial factor here: Current GMs don't care about the future. There will absolutely be some GM who wants an elite QB to help win now and will pay the hefty cost to get it done, because if it doesn't work out he won't be around to have to clean up the mess anyway.

[ResAlien]

Eh disagree. Be the bad teammate and fire every pass into the stands who cares. The soldier mentality that you gotta do it for your teammates is the only dumb thing that probably keeps him from doing that. He can still play but wants out. I suppose they could “punish” him by paying him 126 million dollars plus two years of insane franchise tags that’ll probably amount to another $100 million by then but no team is doing that. I hope he gets traded.

The choices are keep the unhappy player, destroy your locker room more, pay a premium price for an asset that will depreciate, and continue to suck or accept you screwed it up and trade him for what you can get.

[Senator Clay Davis]

I mean this is all kinda moot, the Jets or Dolphins are virtually guaranteed to pay the cost to get him and he apparently will go to either. The fun in this is will someone come over the top with an unmatchable offer?

[ResAlien]

Dolphins do appear to be the spot if major media is to be believed. Makes too much sense. Tua is a better gamble than Darnold, allegedly watson wants to go there as well. Make the trade, get a few firsts, trade back and get more picks to replace the gaping hole left by BoB, profit.

It makes so much sense it’s virtually a lock to not happen.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Eh I don't think they would want either Darnold or Tua. Darnold has one year left of rookie deal and Tua was fairly badly outplayed by Fitz. Darnold probably still has a higher ceiling though. But if you're nuking things they'll have a few years of top three picks where they can draft their own guy.

[MRCboicgy]

I mean if he goes to the NFC, he's a Brees/Brady retirement + Rodgers trade away from being in the discussion of top QB in the conference. Depending how Russ is cooking.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by Sainters7

Haha yeah, I didn't want to copy & paste it because its a paid site and he's just starting up after going rogue, but the GOAT of Saints writers Nick Underhill released an article this week breaking down the roster explicitly one by one and where they can save money, they can basically put themselves in a situation where they could even have as much as $20 million in cap room. I'm telling ya Loomis is a freakin wizard, the cap isn't real in NOLA lol.

Its definitely going to bite them eventually and their D will take a hit in UFA, but the national writers acting like this is judgement day for the Saints are misinformed as to how well Loomis manipulates contracts down there. Between that and how aggressive they are, I'm not at all surprised they're in the Watson sweepstakes, despite how ridiculous that seems with their cap situation. Could even be a big roster style trade, like when they got rid of Jimmy Graham. Saints are seriously lacking in draft capital, but have plenty of capital in the way of impact players in their prime.

Now by no means do I think they'll land him, but I'm not surprised to see them in the running.

It's not really wizardry. It's just basic restructuring/extending and kicking the can down the road to a future date. Roseman has been doing it with the Eagles for years.

It's not a big deal if you draft well and have good core of players locked in. The problem comes when those players age/decline and there's nothing waiting in the pipeline because it can be hard to jettison those players to get significant relief.

Eventually you have to take your lumps and do a rebuild or at least retool where you're not going to be competitive for a couple of years, but as long as you have a decent window open, it's not super difficult to maneuver.

The big problem for teams like the Eagles and Rams is they bet on the wrong players and (in the Eagles' case) have drafted poorly/failed to develop their younger players.

But yeah, playing around with the calculator on OTC, I can get the Saints under the cap by about $15M-20M. You lose some key contributors in the process but they aren't of the irreplaceable variety.

EDIT: That said, if you're bringing in Watson, the draft capital required to grab him means you basically have no margin for error in the draft or you become the Eagles 3 years from now.

[Senator Clay Davis]

Even if the Saints can conjure up the cap room they don't have the draft capital to get it done. Three firsts that are in the 24+ range are probably not very appealing when the Jets or Dolphins can offer you a guaranteed top 3 pick.

[Ducay]

He's at most the second/third best QB that will be on the market this off-season and people are acting like this is the McDavid sweepstakes. I know everyone is eating up the Texans drama but this kid has been mediocre at best

[ResAlien]

Originally Posted by Ducay

He's at most the second/third best QB that will be on the market this off-season and people are acting like this is the McDavid sweepstakes. I know everyone is eating up the Texans drama but this kid has been mediocre at best

Uh oh Ducay coming for the hot take crown. Who would be the two QBs you think are better? Genuinely curious

[Senator Clay Davis]

I mean it kinda is the McDavid sweepstakes, even up to the Jets being the Oilers in this case. When has a top 5 QB in the league, in his prime, ever been available? There should be at least 20 GMs calling on him and if not they are in derelict of their duty.