Simplified Neal/Lucic trade Poll

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bend it like Bourgeois

Despite time and some good perspectives I still think the Lucic deal is no good.

The flames went into the summer with a hole at top 6 wing again, a cap problem, and a boat anchor of a contract related to both. Doubling down on the bad contract means the flames are still going to have a hole at top 6 wing, and will still have to lose other assets for cap relief.

Obviously the flames didn’t see Neal as a fit at all, a year after his contract. That’s a little scary but stuff happens. I think this means they see Lucic as a sometimes top 6. That’s terrifying.

I don't think this at all. The problem with Neal is he has to be in the top 6 to be useful. The benefit of Lucic is that he doesn't - he is useful in the bottom 6. I think that's a key part of the trade, with respect to how it fits the roster.

[zuluking]

Last year, I loved Neal and hated Lucic and mocked the Oilers for their stupid Lucic contract. Now, I hate Neal and love Lucic and mock the Oilers for their horrible Neal contract. It really is that simple. Not having to be consistent or intelligent as a hockey fan is a wonderful reprieve from real life. Enjoy!

[TheScorpion]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Nice sig Scorp. But are you trying to attribute that quote to Boomer on NHL radio? I don’t believe that’s correct, it’s one of the Edmonton hacks commenting on Boomer’s GM ratings.

Ah, must've misread a thread here or there.

Updated

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

That's sick, I might have to get my Neal jersey re-badged.

Just cover Neal and the 8 with duct tape and then put Lucic (7) over top.

[CSharp]

Flames need size and Tre the Wizard waved his magic monkey hand...

[GranteedEV]

Originally Posted by kehatch

I am sure he was frustrated. The year before he was producing on a line with quality line mates in Vegas and was a highly sought player. Last season he spent most of his time with players like Bennett, Jankowski, Czarnik, etc and his production tanked

Let's not start blaming Neal's linemates for Neal's results.

5v5 On-Ice

Jankowski W Neal
336:06 minutes
48.28% Unblocked Shots
1.65 GF/60

Jankowski WO Neal
472:58 minutes
54.50% Unblocked Shots
2.3 GF/60

Bennett W Neal
247:03 minutes
50.73% Unblocked Shots
2.67 GF/60

Bennett WO Neal
557:13 minutes
53.64% Unblocked Shots
2.41 GF/60

Ryan W Neal
146:12 minutes
48.12% Unblocked Shots
1.21 GF/60

Ryan WO Neal
646:33 minutes
56.01% Unblocked Shots
2.86 GF/60

Czarnik W Neal
105:34 minutes
52.99% Unblocked Shots
0.60 GF/60

Czarnik WO Neal
420:22 minutes
55.99% Unblocked Shots
3.00 GF/60

Mangiapane W Neal
73:34 minutes
49.47% Unblocked Shots
0.88 GF/60

Mangiapane WO Neal
361:07 minutes
56.10% Unblocked Shots
3.49 GF/60


Bennett is the only one who saw goals scored on the ice at an acceptable rate with Neal on the ice, whereas every one of the five saw goals scored on the ice at an acceptable-or-better rate with Neal not on the ice.

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

Originally Posted by the2bears

They didn't double down, though. Unless you think that this trade has the chance to either break even, or to be twice as bad. Neither seems likely, at all. They're still stuck with a bad player on a bad contract; they're either a little better off, or a little worse off.

On the contract specifically, the best case is they have what they had in Neal- A near un-moveable contract that in theory could be traded for someone else’s problem. Or it could be twice as bad in that the player now has to give permission for the deal and may not choose to waive protection in the expansion draft.

So, at best the same. At worst, well, much worse. I think people get the point, though if I didn’t use the phrase right then my bad.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by GranteedEV

Bennett is the only one who saw goals scored on the ice at an acceptable rate with Neal on the ice, whereas every one of the five saw goals scored on the ice at an acceptable-or-better rate with Neal not on the ice.

And even with Bennett it's because he was the one dragging Neal around the ice, not like it was because it was Neal driving him to be better.

His production was similar with and without Neal but Neal was horrific away from Bennett.

Like you posted:
Bennett + Neal = 2.67 GF/60 ; 52.0% xGF%
Bennett w/o Neal = 2.41 GF/60 ; 53.6 xGF%
Neal w/o Bennett = 1.67 GF/60 ; 46.6% xGF%

Just for context sake if you isolate "Neal without Bennett" as a player then he was by far the worst forward on the team in GF/60, and xGF%. (min. 400 minutes).

GF/60:

11. Hathaway: 2.5
12. Jankowski: 2.0
13A. Neal: 1.99
13B. Neal w/o Bennett: 1.67

xGF%
11. Jankowski: 52.6%
12. Hathaway: 51.0%
13A. Neal: 48.5%
13B. Neal w/o Bennett: 46.6%

CF%
11. Jankowski: 51.5%
12A. Neal: 50.6%
12B: Neal w/o Bennett: 49.6%
13. Hathaway: 49.5%


I actually don't think it can be overlooked just how bad Neal was last year, and how much of a drag he was on every line he was on.

And a big thing with Lucic was that even though he didn't produce, he still drove play to the offensive zone. Even w/o any of the big 3 in Edmonton on the ice.

Lucic W/O McDavid/RNH/Draisaitl
Minutes: 740
GF/60: 1.05
CF%: 52.4%
HDCF%: 52.7%
xGF%: 54.1%
On Ice Shooting %: 3.48%

Hell if you can throw him out there against other teams bottom 6 and he's going to come out ahead from a possession/chances perspective I'm okay with that.

[Bend it like Bourgeois]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

I don't think this at all. The problem with Neal is he has to be in the top 6 to be useful. The benefit of Lucic is that he doesn't - he is useful in the bottom 6. I think that's a key part of the trade, with respect to how it fits the roster.

We’ll see how he gets used I guess.

Fans have decided he’s a better fit for the bottom 6. The flames have been very vague - which is probably normal.

I look at 2 things.
1- would Lucic waive to battle Czarnik or Quine for popcorn row? Probably not. He’ll get a shot at top 6 and pp time at least.
2- would the flames knowingly take a minor role player at that contract with no hope or aspiration that he becomes more? Probably not. They may accept a floor but they are still going to take a run at upside.

I’ll wager Lucic gets more top 6 and PP time in Oct-Nov than any of Bennett, Mangiapane, Dube, Czarnik etc.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bend it like Bourgeois

We’ll see how he gets used I guess.

Fans have decided he’s a better fit for the bottom 6. The flames have been very vague - which is probably normal.

I look at 2 things.
1- would Lucic waive to battle Czarnik or Quine for popcorn row? Probably not. He’ll get a shot at top 6 and pp time at least.
2- would the flames knowingly take a minor role player at that contract with no hope or aspiration that he becomes more? Probably not. They may accept a floor but they are still going to take a run at upside.

I’ll wager Lucic gets more top 6 and PP time in Oct-Nov than any of Bennett, Mangiapane, Dube, Czarnik etc.

And that may well be. But the coach is paid to win games, and he is going to use Lucic the way he sees fit. And that is going to be as a bottom 6'er IMO.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

And that may well be. But the coach is paid to win games, and he is going to use Lucic the way he sees fit. And that is going to be as a bottom 6'er IMO.

I would not be surprised with a middle six role

[Jiggy]

Originally Posted by zuluking

Last year, I loved Neal and hated Lucic and mocked the Oilers for their stupid Lucic contract. Now, I hate Neal and love Lucic and mock the Oilers for their horrible Neal contract. It really is that simple. Not having to be consistent or intelligent as a hockey fan is a wonderful reprieve from real life. Enjoy!

Post of the summer, folks.

[kehatch]

Milan Lucic has one of the worst contracts in the NHL. Three years in decline, four years left on the deal, NMC, buyout protected, expansion draft upcoming, etc. The Flames didn't take that on to get a marginally better fit on the third or fourth line. This was done to get Neal off the team and to save the owners 11 million dollars.

[DeluxeMoustache]

Originally Posted by kehatch

Milan Lucic has one of the worst contracts in the NHL. Three years in decline, four years left on the deal, NMC, buyout protected, expansion draft upcoming, etc. The Flames didn't take that on to get a marginally better fit on the third or fourth line. This was done to get Neal off the team and to save the owners 11 million dollars.

I believe that Treliving is smart enough to consider many factors in his decision.

We will see if Lucic’s contract looks better or worse after some ice time.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by DeluxeMoustache

There is a reason people can change their opinion, by looking more closely and gathering more information.

On the surface, sure, they both did not meet expectations. Yes, Lucic had a downward trend in points for three seasons.

Guess what? Both players have the same number of points the last 3 years.
Also, Lucic put up over 50 points 3 years ago, and for the first half of 17-18, was on pace for the same.


There are some opinions in this thread that look at what happened at a surface level, then some that look at not only what happened but also how it happened.

Garbage for garbage is the simplest. You can make that case, but it is of no value in trying to figure out which guy stands a better chance of improving.

Lucic could get points with top linemates, in line with his career norms and expectations. Then with AHLers and goons, he can’t. (Big surprise).

Neal could not produce with any line on the Flames. No matter who he played with, he was no good. Top line, middle six, you name it. Made his line mates worse.

Lucic played with guys who are 10 ish point guys on a 4th line. Neal played with roughly 30 point guys, in limited utilization, with some looks with 50-80 point guys. Lucic was better than his line mates. Neal was worse

Wanting a bounce back next year is ignoring the elephant in the room. Neal was not wanted back.

Oilers stats fans were actually burning Lucic even in his first season with the Oilers. He had a career year on the PP. He had 11 more PP points that year than any other year in his career.

His even strength production was actually subpar in 16/17. The career year on the PP masked his lack of ES production.

And Lucic fell off the cliff offensively while he was playing with McDavid in 17/18. He got way more rope than he would have gotten on a team like Calgary. He ended the season 4th in PP icetime among forwards and solidly in the top six among forwards for ES ice time.

Even in Lucic's last season around 10 of his 20 points involved McDavid, Draisaitl, or RNH. He also got a decent amount of PP time.

I would argue that Lucic couldn't produce well with offensive players in his time with the Oilers. I think if he had played a true bottom six role (Only playing with other bottom sixers, no PP time) his point totals would have been substantially worse last year.

It might be better for him in Calgary where they have more O-zone possession time. He's fairly smart in the O-zone, but it seems his hands are gone, and he doesn't add anything beyond replacement level in his own zone, or the neutral zone at this stage in his career IMO.

[Fan69]

Originally Posted by zuluking

Last year, I loved Neal and hated Lucic and mocked the Oilers for their stupid Lucic contract. Now, I hate Neal and love Lucic and mock the Oilers for their horrible Neal contract. It really is that simple. Not having to be consistent or intelligent as a hockey fan is a wonderful reprieve from real life. Enjoy!

This is the best comment I have read in years. Kudos sir.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

...It might be better for him in Calgary where they have more O-zone possession time. He's fairly smart in the O-zone, but it seems his hands are gone, and he doesn't add anything beyond replacement level in his own zone, or the neutral zone at this stage in his career IMO.

Gee, you think? It might be better for Lucic moving from one of the worst franchises in the entire NHL with their pathetic, offensively impotent, laughably shallow forward group to one of the best teams in the League?

Lucic has been redeemed. He is having himself a fantastic summer.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Lucic has been redeemed. He is having himself a fantastic summer.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

He started it with a broken leg. 😂

[kehatch]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Agreed ... I was happy on Neal but concerned about term.
Lucic still has a terrible contract, don't think many are saying it's a good one now.

If you asked me three weeks ago if I wanted Lucic on the team I would have said NO!

If you asked me three weeks ago if I wanted Neal off the team I would have said YES!

This isn't just bad news, it's an exchange of bad news, and in that it's not out of the realm of expectation to try and understand the move from each team's perspective.

I took two days and wrote an article with assumptions in it. Those have been either nodded at or argued with, but for me they seem to line up. So Calgary's left with a better fit, and potentially less chaos in the dressing room, and with a contract that is worse but not relevant if ownership refused to buy out Neal in the first place.

I think the worse hypocritical move would be to suggest Neal was going to bounce back and score 25, and now say he's washed up. I was hoping his terrible shooting percentage would suggest that blind ass luck was bound to help him, but most of us just couldn't figure out where to fit the guy to even give him a chance of scoring.

So glad that's not a worry any more honestly.

My point is that no Flames fan should like, love, or be indifferent on trading last seasons marquee free agent to take the worst contract in the league off of the Edmonton Oilers.

It might be a necessary evil for Brad to save face with ownership by mitigating financial loss while removing a toxic player from the roster. But this isn't a good ol fashion hockey move to bring on a better fit that some are rationalizing it to be.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by kehatch

My point is that no Flames fan should like, love, or be indifferent on trading last seasons marquee free agent to take the worst contract in the league off of the Edmonton Oilers.



It might be a necessary evil for Brad to save face with ownership by mitigating financial loss while removing a toxic player from the roster. But this isn't a good ol fashion hockey move to bring on a better fit that some are rationalizing it to be.

That’s exactly what it it is. Neal was an awful fit, and Lucic fits a “want” that Tree has had for a few years now, even though it comes at an ugly premium dollar-wise, but Neal’s contract was just as ugly unless you were planning to just sit him as the 13th forward for a year or two until a buyout was palatable. In the trade Tree also acquired a player that keeps his head above water when he’s on the ice, unlike James Neal while he was a Calgary Flame.

The Flames also took on Lucic’s deal at a reduced rate, and calling Lucic’s deal “the worst contract in the league” is entirely subjective. James Neal was putrid, and dragged his linemates down last year. Milan Lucic, while unproductive, drove possession - which you can argue would have been a marked improvement over what Neal brought onto the ice last season.

It’s not a slam dunk move, but any trade involving Neal was never going to be.