[News] WCQF: Your Calgary Flames (P1) vs Colorado Avalanche (WC2) — AVALANCHE WIN SERIES 4-1

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Captaincanada80

Sick graph but the numbers are way outta whack. NYI over PIT? CAR over WAS? STL over WIN by 25%? DAL over NAS? The rest seem pretty good. I’d maybe say BOS is 55%

So Nashville and Carolina are better picks than Boston for the Cup? Okay then.

[djsFlames]

I don't think the preds and jets are even all that good this year from what I've seen.

I think the knights-sharks winner, flames or blues are the best bets to come out of the West.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by transplant99

since Jan.1.

30-10-5

Beat Tampa twice, Washington twice, Nashville three times, 8 other playoff teams.

Binnington is 24-5-1 with a 930 save% and 1.83 GAA

They are rolling.

More on that, Tampa earned 64 points since Jan 1, so St. Louis has been the best team in the league in 2019. Assuming they don't pull their usual playoff disappearing act, they're the clear favorite to come out of the west IMO

[Kovaz]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

The real benchmark then is how do the Flames fare in low scoring games. I can't find a site that lets you see this easily, but I'd be interested to see the Flames record in games with 5 goals or less scored total compared to the rest of the league. This site shows the Flames at an 11-8 record in 1 goal games which isn't great, but that's also including a bunch of high scoring games (6-5, etc) so not really a playoff predictor

https://www.hockey-reference.com/tea...tuational.html

If you just look at regulation (so OT games either way count as ties), we were 14-15-6 in <=5 goal games, including the last 2 games of the year. I don't put a lot of stock into those last 2, but that's still basically .500 in the lowest scoring 35 games of the year.

We were also 5-1 in 6 goal games, 9-3-4 in 7 goal games, 5-3 in 8 goal games, 6-1-1 in 9 goal games, and 6-2-1 in 10+ goal games.

[Cole436]

Inspired by the Endgame trailer. If people like them I can make more.

Spoiler!

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by Kovaz

If you just look at regulation (so OT games either way count as ties), we were 14-15-6 in <=5 goal games, including the last 2 games of the year. I don't put a lot of stock into those last 2, but that's still basically .500 in the lowest scoring 35 games of the year.

We were also 5-1 in 6 goal games, 9-3-4 in 7 goal games, 5-3 in 8 goal games, 6-1-1 in 9 goal games, and 6-2-1 in 10+ goal games.

No loser point using playoff rules, so under .500 in low scoring games. Confirms my suspicions, Flames are going to have a rough time if Colorado decides to start playing trap hockey

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

No loser point using playoff rules, so under .500 in low scoring games. Confirms my suspicions, Flames are going to have a rough time if Colorado decides to start playing trap hockey

They won't because Colorado doesn't have the team to play trap hockey.

[jg13]

4029 minutes till puck drop

[Mattman]

https://youtu.be/mhbvFv1a7tw

Don't know if this was posted yet.

And usually, I don't watch Tim and Sid for how often they gush over the Maple Leafs, and the Eastern conference... which makes this video just about the Flames and their accomplishments this season that much sweeter.


So stoked for these Playoffs to start!! Go Flames Go!!

[Tsawwassen]

Originally Posted by Funkhouser

8pm starts for 2 MST teams is BS.

Originally Posted by Resolute 14

Including City and CBC, Sportsnet has eight channels to broadcast on. There is absolutely no justifiable argument for an 8PM start anymore. Especially on a weeknight.

Also, god forbid Toronto lower itself to a 6PM or 6:30 start if Sportsnet needs to justify how much it paid with a full doubleheader.

The 8:00 PM starts are terrific because that benefits Pacific timezone viewers which is 7:00 PM on the west coast.

CityTV doesn't show playoff games, just regular season games on Saturdays.

[Tsawwassen]

Originally Posted by brew

This exact thing happened in my house in 2004, game 7 vs Vancouver. Wife put the kiddo to bed, had just tiptoed out and Gelinas scored. Doghouse for me, once I got him to stop crying again

LOL. My parents friends told me that similar things happened in 1989 on the Peplinski-Otto goal against those same Canucks.

[red sky]

If Johnny can work through the physicality and checking of playoff hockey the Flames will win handily. As he goes the first line goes and he needs to step up this playoffs.

[R2theJ]

I think the Flames win in 6... have a bad feeling that Mike Smith goes full Jonas Hiller in game 1 and the first game nerves hit the rest of the team. Colorado goes home with the split but Rittich steps in and settles the team into a grove and Flames win 4 of the next 5.

[Fire It Up]

Originally Posted by R2theJ

I think the Flames win in 6... have a bad feeling that Mike Smith goes full Jonas Hiller in game 1 and the first game nerves hit the rest of the team. Colorado goes home with the split but Rittich steps in and settles the team into a grove and Flames win 4 of the next 5.

While I would have agreed with this in the past, I think Smith’s game has looked a bit more focused of late. Whether it be the late period Edler hit, or players crashing the net, he usually gets involved in scrums and face washes. Haven’t seen that lately and he seems more keen to focus on stopping the puck and making good plays with it when he leaves the crease. I think it’s a good sign the more he lets the garbage fights around the net slide.

[Calgary4LIfe]

Avs are one of the faster transitioning teams in the NHL. Their defence isn't all that great defensively, but they absolutely love to jump into the rush, and they are really great at moving the puck. They make them a much more dangerous team - ala Bob Hartley era Flames where they really only had one legitimate scoring line, but the defence really helped to create the offence.


They are a dangerous team, and they are on a roll. Flames should find ways to capitalize on their mistakes, however. They leave a lot open. I like watching the Avs actually - one of the more entertaining teams to watch with their uptempo play (they really do remind me of Hartley's Flames). I think they have the potential to be scary-good depending on how the draft lottery goes (can you imagine them getting the 1st overall pick?), plus their own pick this year as well, plus Makar getting into the lineup. I bet within 2-3 seasons, they will be the top Central team.


This is, however, not their year yet. I think their depth is being underrated (not just here, but league-wide - they have effective lines). They just match up really poorly against Calgary. They needed to play someone like San Jose - a team without a real ability to shut-down a line. With the 3M line and the Giordano-Brodie pairing - not to mention the Hanifin - Hamonic pairing that has been really effective for the vast majority of the season - their top line will be limited.


I imagine Colorado's top line is going to be split at some point this series (unless they find ways to breakthrough Calgary's defence). It is going to be much more challenging for them to contain Calgary's offence. This is the 2nd best offence in the league, and Calgary transitions really quickly now as well (thank goodness). What I notice about the Avs is that they don't do that great of a job in coverage when their defencemen breaks out. That's where Calgary takes advantage of them. Even under Hartley, the Flames were really good at covering for pinching defencemen. I see this as Colorado's biggest hole.


Their biggest strength isn't the top line. Their top line will always get their chances, even against Calgary's 3M and defence. They will be limited (hopefully). Where they can really shine is with Grubauer maintaining his play, or even Varlamov finding his game again. That's the my largest area of concern... but then again, Calgary has the NHL's 2nd best offence.

[TheIronMaiden]

As all ways thanks for the insight Calgary4LIfe. I think that you have a fair analysis. But I disagree a little on your evaluation of the Avs defence. I think that Defence has been a strength of theirs this year. Their true weakness is their bottom two lines and when those lines are on their defence struggle to find puck support. That said, when their top two lines are on, the Avs D prove to be very responsible with the puck.

The big thing for Colorado, like you pointed out, is that they are opportunistic. When they get a chance they more often than not make it count. The top line especially plays very well off of the rush. They can go from trapped in their zone to goals for in a matter of seconds.

There will be three keys to the Flames success.
First, the bottom two lines need to score some goals, they will be free and clear to do some damage and players like Neal will have to make it count.

Second, special teams. The Avs have a pretty deadly power play, but a poor PK. The Flames are going to have to make their odd man advantages count, because Colorado certainly will.

Third, mental toughness. The Avs can be very frustrating to play against because they can lead games even though they are being out shot. It feels like small mistakes turn into goals against this team, and they have a few players who are always dangerous. The Flames need to keep pushing even if a few cheap goals go in.

[CgyFlamesftw]

Just realized the avs are 14-19-8 against playoff teams. Guess they fed on lower placed teams .

[Bingo]

I've been on the over reactors for the Smith / Rittich debate, but now the numbers are starting to suggest Rittich is the guy.

Player	#	Last 5	Last 10	Last 15	Last 20	QS%
Smith	42	0.908	0.911	0.916	0.907	50%
	Opp	0.489	0.522	0.537	0.539	
Rittich	45	0.928	0.908	0.898	0.899	64%
	Opp	0.515	0.567	0.547	0.560

Rittich much better in the last five games, and has closed the gap for the last ten games as well. All while playing more difficult teams.

Add in the fact that Smith has had back to back poor starts (by quality start definition) going into the playoffs and it has me somewhat concerned. The Oilers game was a nothing game, but he gave up three on 15 shots in San Jose as well.

[Toonage]

^ That combined with Rittich's record/experience against Colorado during this season makes me really hope they make that call.

[AC]

Originally Posted by Toonage

^ That combined with Rittich's record/experience against Colorado during this season makes me really hope they make that call.

Well... Mike Smith is 11-1-4 against Colorado in his career.

1 regulation loss, with .931 SV% and 2.08 GAA.

He's actually never lost in regulation as the starter. The one loss was in relief.