Are the Flames Stanley Cup Contenders?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Uh. What?

This defies belief. McDonough is playing 22-25 minutes a night for Tampa, the best team in the league by far.

Rick Nash scored 2 game winning goals last year in the playoffs.

Statsny was the 4th highest scorer for his conference final team.

Hartman, sure, but Nashville was desperate for offense after not being able to score enough then year prior and Hartman was 22/23 19 goal scorer.

If.sam Bennett scored 19 goals last year and was on pace for more points this year, what would you be asking for in a trade?

Bad trades happen at the deadline, but none of them are in the examples you're listing here, and they definitely are not cautionary tale of things the flames should avoid.

Saying a 1st for McDonough didnt move the needle for Tampa is like saying a 1st for Hamonic doesnt move the needle for Calgary. Just baffling.

TB doing just as well this year means they weren't in win now mode last year I guess. As I said McDonough is different because he was not a rental. And Hamonic not only was not a rental, he was on a great contract. If the Flames can pick up a guy who's not a rental for a first on that level, fine.

But how far did those teams each get in the POs? And would they have gotten that far anyway?

Look at Boston. Nash scores two GWG, and Boston wins a round. You don't think Boston wins against Toronto anyway? Boston won its games 5-1, 7-3, 3-1, 7-4. Nash's GWG in the second game made it 4-0. He scored 2 goals in the first game blowout in the second round. That was it and the Bruins went out in 5.

Look at Winnipeg. Do you think Jets fans remember the 2018 POs fondly? Stastny played really well until the WCF, where he got zippo. But I think the Jets beat Minnie with or without him and had a good chance against Nashville without him. Now the Jets have no pick and no Stastny.

Most people are proposing first rounders for rentals like Stone. If you do that IMO you'd better win a cup. No one remembers how well your rental played in a losing effort at the next draft.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Adding high priced rentals doesn't move the needle enough for me.

So many factors go into winning playoff rounds it's not worth the cost IMO. You could trade your 1st ++ for 2 months of a high priced rental and then have your goalie sieve out and be gone in the 1st round to a wild card team.

Cheap depth rentals? Yeah sure.
1st ++ for a long term, youngish useful piece? I'm ok with that too.
1st ++ for a high priced rental? Please, please, please no...

Way shorter and way better put than my post.

[Flash Walken]

Do I think Jets fans look upon their only playoff series wins in the history of the city fondly?

Is that a serious question?

Do you look upon the 2004 playoff run fondly?

[Bingo]

I see both sides ...

I think the win now argument is solid, as they are what top five at worst, and maybe a little better. That says go all in, and I get that.

The other angle though is the modern era change in cap dynamics, and more money going to the top of the roster. You need 1st and 2nd round picks to bring in cheap talent and make sure you can extend the window far enough to encompass Monahan and Gaudreau's contracts.

Fish had better be big

[Spinach]

If the Flames had had a pick before round 3 last year and had a 2nd-rounder this year, it would be easier for them to decide whether to move a 1st this season. It'll also be easier to evaluate closer to the deadline, when the clear sellers start selling.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

Do I think Jets fans look upon their only playoff series wins in the history of the city fondly?

Is that a serious question?

Do you look upon the 2004 playoff run fondly?

I am still absolutely mystified by this.

Do I think Jets fans look upon a 3rd round finish, the only time in franchise history they've been out of the first round, fondly?

...

I don't even know how to approach this. How does one even come up with that as an idea?

I am absolutely flabbergasted right now thinking about this line of thought.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

I am still absolutely mystified by this.

Do I think Jets fans look upon a 3rd round finish, the only time in franchise history they've been out of the first round, fondly?

...

I don't even know how to approach this. How does one even come up with that as an idea?

I am absolutely flabbergasted right now thinking about this line of thought.

You flabbergast pretty easily. A lot of Jets fans had the SCF in mind. Losing to Vegas (and not even being close in that series) is what they remember, and not with a smile.

Most also thought they’d be able to keep Stastny for another season and that hasn’t happened.

[Flash Walken]

Ok, dude.

[goflamesgo18]

Flames are contenders in my eyes. They have a chance to win the cup this year and should not be shy of trading our 1st.

Too many fans are scared of trading that 1st (which will most likely be a player 3 or 4 years away from making any impact if we are lucky).

Pens trade their first or good prospects every year to give them an edge in winning the cup and guess what... They have 3 cups in a short amount of time. Same with Chicago.

[joejoe3]

Or trade with 1st ++ and bring back a 2nd along with a rental?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by joejoe3

Or trade with 1st ++ and bring back a 2nd along with a rental?

Now that's not a bad notion, given that a team selling a decent player is in a rebuild and their 2nd might be not far off the Flames' first. I suppose the Flames also send a low roster player or prospect.

[djsFlames]

If you can get someone like Stone, that's worth the 1st.

If it's for a borderline 2nd line talent or someone with question marks for purely a rental, maybe it's worth hanging on to.

[chummer]

Flames at 11 to 1. Can't believe how high the Leafs are-


Tampa Bay Lightning +300
Toronto Maple Leafs +450
Winnipeg Jets +1000
Calgary Flames +1100
San Jose Sharks +1100
Washington Capitals +1200
Nashville Predators +1400
Pittsburgh Penguins +1400
Oilers at 35 to 1.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by chummer

Flames at 11 to 1. Can't believe how high the Leafs are-


Tampa Bay Lightning +300
Toronto Maple Leafs +450
Winnipeg Jets +1000
Calgary Flames +1100
San Jose Sharks +1100
Washington Capitals +1200
Nashville Predators +1400
Pittsburgh Penguins +1400
Oilers at 35 to 1.

No Vegas?

[chummer]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

No Vegas?

Yeah Vegas at 17 to 1, here's the rest-

Vegas Golden Knights +1700
Columbus Blue Jackets +2000
Montreal Canadiens +2200
Boston Bruins +2300
New York Islanders +2400
Buffalo Sabres +2500
Colorado Avalanche +2600
Edmonton Oilers +3500
Dallas Stars +3800
Anaheim Ducks +4000
Vancouver Canucks +4500
Minnesota Wild +5000
Florida Panthers +7500
New York Rangers +8000
St. Louis Blues +8000
Carolina Hurricanes +10000
Arizona Coyotes +12500
Chicago Blackhawks +12500
New Jersey Devils +12500
Detroit Red Wings +15000
Los Angeles Kings +15000
Philadelphia Flyers +15000
Ottawa Senators +17500

[The Cobra]

If you bar to trading your 1st round pick is "you better win the cup". no one would ever make a rental type deal.

Only one team wins the Cup, the odds of it working to that degree is exceptionally low.

What such a trade does do though is increase your odds.

With 16 teams in the playoffs, the average team has a 6.25% chance to win the cup.

I would suggest that the very best teams have up to a $12% chance to win the Cup, the lowest maybe about 3%. That's the randomness of hockey.

If you can trade your first and increase your chances from 8% to 10%, you likely do it. Because that's all trading your first will ever do.

Because winning a Cup is hard to do, and most teams windows don't last all that long as a higher chance team. Just ask Vancouver.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

If you bar to trading your 1st round pick is "you better win the cup". no one would ever make a rental type deal.

Only one team wins the Cup, the odds of it working to that degree is exceptionally low.

What such a trade does do though is increase your odds.

With 16 teams in the playoffs, the average team has a 6.25% chance to win the cup.

I would suggest that the very best teams have up to a $12% chance to win the Cup, the lowest maybe about 3%. That's the randomness of hockey.

If you can trade your first and increase your chances from 8% to 10%, you likely do it. Because that's all trading your first will ever do.

Because winning a Cup is hard to do, and most teams windows don't last all that long as a higher chance team. Just ask Vancouver.

I'm not against trading the first rounder. I just don't like rentals. The best example of success give has been the Jets, and they won one more round than the Flames did in 2015.

The numbers you cite are reasons not to do it IMO. It doesn't move the needle enough for the most part.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by chummer

Flames at 11 to 1. Can't believe how high the Leafs are-


Tampa Bay Lightning +300
Toronto Maple Leafs +450
Winnipeg Jets +1000
Calgary Flames +1100
San Jose Sharks +1100
Washington Capitals +1200
Nashville Predators +1400
Pittsburgh Penguins +1400
Oilers at 35 to 1.

People are betting on the Leafs this year...large fan base+media hype

Odds are not based on results alone, consider that Tampa and Toronto will likely meet early in the playoffs they are both bad bets considering the odds

[White Out 403]

I feel like there's a really good chance the Flames and Jets meet in the WCF. The central is not what it was last year and the Jets are leading by a decent margin while getting really pedestrian goaltending from Hellebuyck. I don't see any Pacific team threatening the Flames in a meaningful way except San Jose I guess.

[Bigfeet24]

Evening all, I'm looking to book a flight from Scotland which would get me in Calgary for a week from w/c 15 April... I'm I right in saying this would be first week of the playoffs, and how difficult would it be to get a ticket for one of the games that week... Any help would be appreciated.

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