View Poll Results: What will Bouma get on a 1 year deal from the arbitrator (or before ruling)?
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1.5
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2 |
0.64% |
1.6
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2 |
0.64% |
1.7
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9 |
2.88% |
1.8
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42 |
13.42% |
1.9
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61 |
19.49% |
2.0
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75 |
23.96% |
2.1
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52 |
16.61% |
2.2
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42 |
13.42% |
2.3
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16 |
5.11% |
2.4
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5 |
1.60% |
2.5
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7 |
2.24% |
07-20-2015, 11:37 PM
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#281
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
While it's probably true that Bouma won't be able to maintain his style of play for as long as some players last, I fail to see the problem. He's 25. And it's not like Treliving is going to offer him an 8 year deal or anything.
He's a valuable player. Pay him what he's worth while he's worth it.
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Yep. So, what is it: 1.5, 2 or 2.5?
We did a case study in business school preparing a hypothetical hockey arbitration presentation arguing for the player and for the management. The number of factors that go into the offer for a 3rd/4th line player is very high; much higher than for a star player. And a seemingly "small" difference of $0.5M could result in a +/- 30% valuation differential.
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"An idea is always a generalization, and generalization is a property of thinking. To generalize means to think." Georg Hegel
“To generalize is to be an idiot.” William Blake
Last edited by CaptainYooh; 07-20-2015 at 11:40 PM.
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07-20-2015, 11:39 PM
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#282
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary, AB
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainYooh
Yep. So, what is it: 1.5, 2 or 2.5? 
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Yes.
Three year deal: $1.5M the first year, $2M the second, and $2.5M the third year. $2M AAV.
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Turn up the good, turn down the suck!
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07-20-2015, 11:49 PM
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#283
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by getbak
Yes.
Three year deal: $1.5M the first year, $2M the second, and $2.5M the third year. $2M AAV.
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There is very little chance this will be a contract increasing annually, I think. While I admire his fearlessness, Bouma's style of play is almost suicidal.
This is off-topic as a more general comment, but you just can't block this many shots and stay healthy continuously. I recall one of the commentators once saying that too many blocked shots are often a result of failed defense.
__________________
"An idea is always a generalization, and generalization is a property of thinking. To generalize means to think." Georg Hegel
“To generalize is to be an idiot.” William Blake
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07-20-2015, 11:59 PM
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#284
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Yokohama
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I read that article posted by hockeyfeed. No wonder there's a problem in negotiations if that's the case.
Quote:
The Calgary Flames are running out of time to get a deal worked out with restricted free agent Lance Bouma and it seems the two sides are still very fart apart.
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So it's not just about millions then....
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07-21-2015, 12:14 AM
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#285
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Franchise Player
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You can't win without what Bouma brings to the table, he is a true difference maker and the type of player each cup winner has had on their roster making an impact.
In the cap era, you also can't win if you pay you Lance Bouma type player a significant salary, you have to get that #### on a value deal.
There in lies the dilemma the Flames are currently in.
I'm firmly in agreement with all those touting Bouma as an incredibly valuable member of this club, but I'm also firmly in disagreement with anyone who views him as a piece of the core. He can't be if this team is going to be a winner. The Flames need to have him or someone like him to win, but he can't be a looked at as a centre piece for this team, that's just the man boners talking.
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07-21-2015, 12:32 AM
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#286
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CaptainYooh
There is very little chance this will be a contract increasing annually, I think. While I admire his fearlessness, Bouma's style of play is almost suicidal.
This is off-topic as a more general comment, but you just can't block this many shots and stay healthy continuously. I recall one of the commentators once saying that too many blocked shots are often a result of failed defense.
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This type of comment is often stated and simply doesn't hold water.
ALL players, regardless of how good they are defensively, are on the ice for shots attempts against. And the difference isn't all that great - most players' CORSI numbers are between 45% and 55%.
The difference in shot block numbers doesn't come from more shot attempts against, it comes from a willingness to step in front of those shots.
Many of the great shot blockers of the game were very good defensively, even defensive specialists: Risebrough, Yelle, MacTavish.
And a quick look at the BkS leaders for last season (forwards) shows a bunch of names that are generally considered very good defensively.
In fact, it is difficult to think of a great shot blocker who wasn't good defensively.
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07-21-2015, 03:17 AM
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#287
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Crash and Bang Winger
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dieHARDflameZ
How?
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Once 18 goals career high guy earn $3,5m and from other side heart & soul guy, who scoring 16 goals just offering $1,5m. I'm disappointed.
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07-21-2015, 08:15 AM
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#288
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Calgary, AB
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For those who are worried that the Flames and Bouma are too far apart, Holtby and the Caps are almost $3 million apart...
Quote:
Elliotte Friedman @FriedgeHNIC
Arb filings today -- Holtby $8M; WASH $5.1M. Chiasson $2.475M; OTT $1M.
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07-21-2015, 08:25 AM
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#289
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#1 Goaltender
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Quote:
Originally Posted by getbak
For those who are worried that the Flames and Bouma are too far apart, Holtby and the Caps are almost $3 million apart...
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I seriously doubt there actual negotiations are that far apart
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07-21-2015, 08:25 AM
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#290
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Calgary, AB
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I was going to say that a million per year doesn't seem that far apart.
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07-21-2015, 08:34 AM
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#291
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Franchise Player
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I am certain the stumbling block on Bouma is in trying to negotiate a longer term deal. If both sides were Ok with one year, a deal would be done by now. If there is no deal before the arbitration hearing I believe Flames will agree to a one year deal relatively close to what Bouma camp is asking for since effect on this years cap is not too big a deal.
In 2016/17 Flames currently only have 6 NHL forwards under contract and only one (Bennett) is on a contract that repesents exceptional value for the team. The rest are at full fair market value deals or in the case of Raymond, over FMV.
We have $22 million tied up in 5 defencemen with our best Dman yet to sign.
Zero NHL goalies under contract.
In two years Flames will have gone from one of the lowest payrolls in the league to being right up against the cap. That is about 12 contracts Treliving needs to get done in next 12 months.
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07-21-2015, 08:37 AM
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#292
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Vancouver
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Holtby looking for $8 mil?! Wow.
Don't watch a lot of Caps hockey but I can't imagine he's done something to be worth that.
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07-21-2015, 08:41 AM
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#293
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2001
Location: Vancouver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MattyC
Holtby looking for $8 mil?! Wow.
Don't watch a lot of Caps hockey but I can't imagine he's done something to be worth that.
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Definitely not, and I doubt he thinks he will get that. It's just a high number to try and influence the arbiter's decision.
__________________
"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
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07-21-2015, 08:43 AM
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#294
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MattyC
Holtby looking for $8 mil?! Wow.
Don't watch a lot of Caps hockey but I can't imagine he's done something to be worth that.
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Holtby was fantastic last year. The problem is, it was only one year.
I think they'll end up settling before the hearing, somewhere around $6.75M on a 5-6 year deal.
__________________
Quote:
Originally Posted by CroFlames
Before you call me a pessimist or a downer, the Flames made me this way. Blame them.
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07-21-2015, 08:48 AM
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#295
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Powerplay Quarterback
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Calgary
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I can't remember what league it was, but their arbitration process involved the arbitrator picking either the player's salary request or the team's salary request.
Not in-between. It seemed to have made the effect of more reasonable numbers being presented.
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07-21-2015, 08:53 AM
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#296
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I believe in the Jays.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
In fact, it is difficult to think of a great shot blocker who wasn't good defensively.
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Chris Butler... that was rather easy actually.
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07-21-2015, 09:01 AM
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#297
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jun 2004
Location: SW Ontario
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Cleveland Steam Whistle
You can't win without what Bouma brings to the table, he is a true difference maker and the type of player each cup winner has had on their roster making an impact.
In the cap era, you also can't win if you pay you Lance Bouma type player a significant salary, you have to get that #### on a value deal.
There in lies the dilemma the Flames are currently in.
I'm firmly in agreement with all those touting Bouma as an incredibly valuable member of this club, but I'm also firmly in disagreement with anyone who views him as a piece of the core. He can't be if this team is going to be a winner. The Flames need to have him or someone like him to win, but he can't be a looked at as a centre piece for this team, that's just the man boners talking.
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Exactly this. In the cap era - you have to make tough decisions. You pay a guy like Bouma big dollars (or even that much more than the minimum you end up in cap hell and shipping out guys you don't want to ship out to be able to sign Gaudreau/Mony/Bennett when they become big salary guys.
You have to watch your money. A long term contract $1.5M plus contract for a bottom six guy isn't feasible anymore no matter how much heart the guy has.
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07-21-2015, 09:03 AM
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#298
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I believe in the Jays.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bomber317
I can't remember what league it was, but their arbitration process involved the arbitrator picking either the player's salary request or the team's salary request.
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That how Major League Baseball does it.
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07-21-2015, 09:24 AM
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#299
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jan 2003
Location: The C-spot
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Quote:
Originally Posted by getbak
For those who are worried that the Flames and Bouma are too far apart, Holtby and the Caps are almost $3 million apart...
Quote:
Elliotte Friedman @FriedgeHNIC
Arb filings today -- Holtby $8M; WASH $5.1M. Chiasson $2.475M; OTT $1M.
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Yeah, but the difference between the sides is actually greater given the value of the contract. The ratio between the difference between the sides and the team's ask is actually lower for Holtby than it is for Bouma:
Bouma: $1.0M / $1.5M = 66.7%
Holtby: $2.9M / $5.1M = 56.9%
Same is true for the player's ask:
Bouma: $1.0M / $2.5M = 40%
Holtby: $2.9M / $8.0M = 36.3%
So what? Well, there's a big difference between Lance Bouma asking for a million dollar raise and me asking for a million dollar raise.
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07-21-2015, 09:48 AM
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#300
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Lifetime Suspension
Join Date: Jan 2013
Location: Flame Country
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Parallex
Chris Butler... that was rather easy actually.
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This just goes to show that shot blocking isn't telling of how good a player is defensively. But it also shouldn't be used to show that a player is bad at defending.
Nobody would defend Butler even though he led the league in blocked shots as a Flame. Bouma and Russell play completely different games and aren't blocking shots because they turned the puck over. They do it because it's part of the system and it works. And Flames fans love them for it.
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