Wild Card Race (Western Conference)

[Itse]

I'm expecting at least one of Minnesota or LA to make it, because I don't think Vancouver will make it. I'm thinking the one good streak they had early in the season was the outlier, and this barely above .500 team is what they are now.

San Jose isn't that great either, and Minnesota has 3 games in hand over them.

[Tsawwassen]

After Tuesday's games:

1. Winnipeg (28-18-10) 24 ROW, 66 pts
Calgary (30-21-3) 27 ROW, 63 pts--second in Pacific Division
San Jose (28-20-7) 26 ROW, 63 pts--third in Pacific Division
2. Vancouver (29-20-3) 27 ROW, 61 pts--and fourth in the Pacific Division
3. Minnesota (26-20-7) 24 ROW, 59 pts
4. Los Angeles (23-18-12) 22 ROW, 58 pts--and fifth in the Pacific Division
5. Dallas (25-21-8) 23 ROW, 58 pts
6. Colorado (22-21-11) 15 ROW, 55 pts

Stars won in regulation
Jets won in overtime
Wild lost in overtime

[icarus]

I'm not sure how they calculate this but today sportsclubstats.com has Calgary (3.2%) at better odds to win the Stanley Cup than Anaheim (3.1%).

[GoFlamesGo1989]

Originally Posted by icarus

I'm not sure how they calculate this but today sportsclubstats.com has Calgary (3.2%) at better odds to win the Stanley Cup than Anaheim (3.1%).

It's because the first two rounds in the playoffs are within the division. So since Calgary has such a good record within their division, the cup percentage is higher than expected.

[foshizzle11]

I really hope the Hawks destroy the Canucks tonight. I will likely tune in to see how that game goes tonight. I hope they go on an epic slide and we have I worried about holding onto a playoff spot because they are out of the running.

[Tsawwassen]

After Wednesday's games:

1. Winnipeg (28-18-10) 24 ROW, 66 pts
San Jose (28-20-8) 26 ROW, 64 pts--second in Pacific Division
Vancouver (30-20-3) 28 ROW, 63 pts--third in Pacific Division
2. Calgary (30-21-3) 27 ROW, 63 pts--and fourth in the Pacific Division
3. Minnesota (26-20-7) 24 ROW, 59 pts
4. Los Angeles (23-18-12) 22 ROW, 58 pts--and fifth in the Pacific Division
5. Dallas (25-21-8) 23 ROW, 58 pts
6. Colorado (22-21-11) 15 ROW, 55 pts

Canucks won in overtime
Sharks lost in overtime

[troutman]

I like how MIN's and LA's odds dropped more than CGY's last night, with all three teams idle.

SJ has one more point than CGY, but odds are much worse at 58.6% < 84.1%.

They must have a killer schedule remaining?

[sureLoss]

@News1130Sports: Hearing Nick Bonino will be out 1-2 weeks with his injured foot. #Canucks

[Itse]

Originally Posted by troutman

I like how MIN's and LA's odds dropped more than CGY's last night, with all three teams idle.

SJ has one more point than CGY, but odds are much worse at 58.6% < 84.1%.

They must have a killer schedule remaining?

We have two games in hand, plus the tiebreaker. I'm guessing statistically they're trailing us.

[Mith]

Originally Posted by troutman

I like how MIN's and LA's odds dropped more than CGY's last night, with all three teams idle.

SJ has one more point than CGY, but odds are much worse at 58.6% < 84.1%.

They must have a killer schedule remaining?

We have 2 games in hand on SJS while only being 1 point back. Effectively we have a higher point percentage (And potentially 3 more points than them, if we win the 2 games in hand).

[Resolute 14]

Plus, with the season series being done, they have no direct opportunity to take points from us. It's those four-point games that represent the biggest swing potential in the percentages.

[mrkajz44]

Originally Posted by troutman

I like how MIN's and LA's odds dropped more than CGY's last night, with all three teams idle.

SJ has one more point than CGY, but odds are much worse at 58.6% < 84.1%.

They must have a killer schedule remaining?

In addition to what was already said, the weighted method uses goal differential as a strong predictor into who will more likely win any future matchups. Calgary has a GD of +19, while SJ is even. Therefore, the weighted method would show Calgary as earning more points than SJ, even if they had the exact same remaining schedule.

The 50/50 method takes away this weighting on GD and drops Calgary's chance of getting in, and increases the Sharks.

[polak]

I guess I'm not allowed to call tonights game a must win either?

[Mith]

Originally Posted by mrkajz44

In addition to what was already said, the weighted method uses goal differential as a strong predictor into who will more likely win any future matchups. Calgary has a GD of +19, while SJ is even. Therefore, the weighted method would show Calgary as earning more points than SJ, even if they had the exact same remaining schedule.

The 50/50 method takes away this weighting on GD and drops Calgary's chance of getting in, and increases the Sharks.

Best explanation out of all and I honestly didn't know that was how it was calculated. Thanks!

[troutman]

Originally Posted by polak

I guess I'm not allowed to call tonights game a must win either?

A regulation CGY win reduces LA's odds by 9%.

[FBI]

Originally Posted by polak

I guess I'm not allowed to call tonights game a must win either?

Nope because your last 'must win' was a loss and just a few games later we are just fine.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by polak

I guess I'm not allowed to call tonights game a must win either?

You may call it what you like and everyone else be damned

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by troutman

I like how MIN's and LA's odds dropped more than CGY's last night, with all three teams idle.

SJ has one more point than CGY, but odds are much worse at 58.6% < 84.1%.

They must have a killer schedule remaining?

San Jose does have a difficult schedule coming up according to Bingo's spreadsheet

[Itse]

Originally Posted by polak

I guess I'm not allowed to call tonights game a must win either?

Also, it's far from a "must win".

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by Itse

Also, it's far from a "must win".

Not that far. But Saturday we could be on the outside looking in, no?