Sam Bennett Value: Have the Flames held on TOO long? OR is he awesome?

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by Kovaz

Fun fact: despite their recent cold streak, Bennett-Jankowski as a pair are still scoring more frequently than Tkachuk-Backlund as a pair.

• Bennett-Jankowski have produced 17 goals in 449:55, good for 2.27 goals / 60.
• Tkachuk-Backlund have produced 22 goals in 639:52, good for 2.06 goals / 60.

Our team as a whole only scores 2.34 goals / 60. If anything, our 2nd line needs to pick it up offensively. Our problem isn't our top 6 carrying our bottom 6. It's our top line carrying our bottom 9 (at least offensively). So when people talk about shuffling our lines to spark some offense, our 2nd line should absolutely be involved in that conversation.

The way I see it, Jankowski and Bennett are both struggling at the same time - and because it's simultaneous neither has a linemate to lean on and help them work through it. I think breaking that pair for a bit could do them both a world of good, but if we continue to elevate the 3M line to untouchable status based on last year's play, then we've got no one left to shuffle them with.

3M line is probably facing much tougher lines compared to Janko/Bennett though.... so a straight comparison of points per minute played isn't telling the whole story

[Roof-Daddy]

I am all for patience, but we were able to be patient with Backlund because the team was rebuilding anyways.

Difference now is that this team's window is supposed to be open, and they can't risk wasting another season of being a bubble team because they have no depth scoring due to key young pieces of that 3rd line not being able to step up and carry their weight.

If you're going into next season with the Bennett/Janko combo as the main parts of your 3rd line, you better be sure they are going to grow offensively or we'll spend another year struggling just to make the playoffs, never mind contending for a Stanley Cup.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

More perspective...

How does this compare to other teams.

Are there other teams in the league that have say, 5 players with a positive penalty differential??

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I am all for patience, but we were able to be patient with Backlund because the team was rebuilding anyways.

Difference now is that this team's window is supposed to be open, and they can't risk wasting another season of being a bubble team because they have no depth scoring due to key young pieces of that 3rd line not being able to step up and carry their weight.

If you're going into next season with the Bennett/Janko combo as the main parts of your 3rd line, you better be sure they are going to grow offensively or we'll spend another year struggling just to make the playoffs, never mind contending for a Stanley Cup.

Which is why I think it's on Treliving to acquire someone to help raise Janko and Bennett's game to the next level. They need some help, and the help is out there. It's the one hole I think this current roster has, and I think it's going to be addressed - I just hope it happens sooner rather than later.

[Steve Bozek]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Which is why I think it's on Treliving to acquire someone to help raise Janko and Bennett's game to the next level. They need some help, and the help is out there. It's the one hole I think this current roster has, and I think it's going to be addressed - I just hope it happens sooner rather than later.

Agree, but regardless of what’s good for Bennett, the Flames need another winger who can score at least 20/season to strengthen the third line

[getoverit]

it would be nice to have more players on second line be able to achieve 20 goals in a season let alone the 3rd line.

GG drives me nutz, continues to do the same thing over and over and expect different results.

Originally Posted by Steve Bozek

Agree, but regardless of what’s good for Bennett, the Flames need another winger who can score at least 20/season to strengthen the third line

[Classic_Sniper]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

More perspective...

Problem is Sam Bennett’s penalties are always in the offensive zone and they’re always obstruction calls like tripping, slashing, holding and etc. I can live with Sam Bennett’s offensive zone struggles for the time being especially if the 4th line can continue to contribute, but I can’t deal with the penalties that hurt the team. Sam Bennett and Dougie Hamilton are the biggest offenders right now and they have to learn to curb it down because the games are just too tight thes days.

[GordonBlue]

People say he's young and be patient as look how long it took backlund.

How many top 5 overall draft picks have there been that took 5 years or more to mature to their full potential? Cant be that many.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

More perspective...

I don't take your point here.

I'm less concerned about the penalty differential than I about the types of penalties we are seeing Bennett, specifically, take. He has taken a number of offensive zone stick infraction penalties. When a player takes these penalties it's one of three things; bad positioning, not moving his feet, or just plain stupidity/irresponsiblity. Take your pick. I suppose there is the occasional accidental penalty, but when it's happening as much as it does against one player, that player starts to lose the benefit of the doubt.

Sam just has to smarten up here. Enough is enough.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

People say he's young and be patient as look how long it took backlund.

How many top 5 overall draft picks have there been that took 5 years or more to mature to their full potential? Cant be that many.

What difference does that make?

The only thing that matters at this point is what he can become- what happens going forward Where he was drafted 4 years ago, means jack.

The way fans hate on players because of where they got drafted, is astounding to me.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Which is why I think it's on Treliving to acquire someone to help raise Janko and Bennett's game to the next level. They need some help, and the help is out there. It's the one hole I think this current roster has, and I think it's going to be addressed - I just hope it happens sooner rather than later.

I do agree with you on this. It is becoming clear if Bennett is to succeed the Flames need to find a player, somehow, that can stabilize that line. Certainly doesn't need to be one of the big names available, hockey ops just needs to find someone who can do some heavy lifting here.

We need to somehow unearth a 'Vegas like' player to compliment Bennett and Janko. Who that is, or how they get it, I don't know. that's why they pay Treliving the big bucks.

[Flash Walken]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I am all for patience, but we were able to be patient with Backlund because the team was rebuilding anyways.

This is the biggest thing with me and the point of the thread.

I don't want to re-draft the 2014 draft or litigate who should've gone where, the point is, the Flames don't have time for Bennett to find his way over the next 5 years and become a Backlund level forward when Gaudreau is 31 and Giordano is on the final year of his contract.

Lots of teams cut bait with their first rounders, and those that do occasionally come out smelling like a million bucks.

Rundblad for the pick that became tarasenko. Wayne Simmonds and Brayden Schenn to push LA over the top.

St.Louis unloaded FIRST OVERALL erik johnson for a tremendous return, including Kevin Shattenkirk who has ended up being a far superior defender than Johnson and who the team used to generate further assets by moving him even though they were contenders. That EJ for McClement, Stewart and Shattenkirk deal set the Blues up to be perennial contenders from that moment on.

Chicago moved Cam Barker when he was 21 (3rd OVERALL pick behind Ovechkin and Malkin (!!!!)) for Kenny Jonsson and Nick Leddy. Leddy would go on to be the vastly superior defender and Barker would be out of the league a few years alter.

The oilers held onto Yakupov until he was basically worthless.

The point isn't that the Flames picked the wrong player, because I don't think they did. The point is they didn't have the wherewithal to accurately assess what they had when that asset still had exceptionally high value.

Whether Bennett turns into something or not, the Flames don't have time to wait. They should've been looking at a deal for him as early as a year ago.

The Flames are absolutely killing it from the top end of their roster this year. It will be a haunting mistake if they don't get those guys some help in the next week or so.

[jonkaupp]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

3M line is probably facing much tougher lines compared to Janko/Bennett though.... so a straight comparison of points per minute played isn't telling the whole story

They are playing way stronger lines while also facing waaaay more defensive zone starts. On top of that, stats like that skew as they get larger, 3M is on the ice a lot more. It’s pretty bad analysis. I see a lot about how the second line needs to produce more and yet they’re corsi is still elite while scoring at the same pace. Makes no sense to me. Our second line is far from being anything resembling a problem with the team. It’s one of the more productive and balanced lines in the league. Good offense combined with elite defensive play.

[Kovaz]

Originally Posted by oldschoolcalgary

3M line is probably facing much tougher lines compared to Janko/Bennett though.... so a straight comparison of points per minute played isn't telling the whole story

Oh definitely. They're facing tougher competition with worse zone starts and that definitely is impacting their production.

My point was more that they've pretty much been a shutdown line this year, rather than the dominant two-way line they were last year. On a team that's struggling to score goals, they are also struggling to score goals. Last year it was totally out of the question to shuffle them up because 3M was carrying our offense, so the bottom 6 was just a matter of cobbling together whatever we could manage with the slim pickings that were there. This year, some line juggling becomes a much more attractive option - there's a lot less risk of it hurting our overall offense when 3M isn't scoring anyway.

Maybe we could bump Frolik down to the Bennett-Jankowski line to help them generate some zone time. Maybe we move Tkachuk to that line, and double down on (Lazar? Hathaway?)-Backlund-Frolik as a shutdown line. Maybe we bump Bennett up and see if Bennett-Backlund-Tkachuk can generate some offense.

But I think at some point you have to try something new, despite Gulutzan's insistence on changing nothing and letting them work through it. We shuffle our lines less than any other team in the league*, and I think a gentle nudge in the direction of the line blender could help us find some different chemistry.

* Some support for that claim: Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland is the line that has played the most time together in the league, and were it not for Frolik's injury the 3M line's pace would have them in first instead (they're still 4th despite missing 10 games). Only 10 line combos league wide have >400 minutes together. Had Frolik not been injured, we'd have two lines with >500 minutes. And it's not due to a top-heavy ice time distribution either: Gaudreau is our only forward in the top 30 league-wide TOI (20th), and Backlund is next at 50th.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Flash Walken

The Flames are absolutely killing it from the top end of their roster this year. It will be a haunting mistake if they don't get those guys some help in the next week or so.

Throw in incredible goaltending, few injuries and a massive upgrade on defense (at least on paper).

There are no guarantees in pro sports so to miss the playoffs with all these positives...yikes.

[Kovaz]

Originally Posted by jonkaupp

They are playing way stronger lines while also facing waaaay more defensive zone starts. On top of that, stats like that skew as they get larger, 3M is on the ice a lot more. It’s pretty bad analysis. I see a lot about how the second line needs to produce more and yet they’re corsi is still elite while scoring at the same pace. Makes no sense to me. Our second line is far from being anything resembling a problem with the team. It’s one of the more productive and balanced lines in the league. Good offense combined with elite defensive play.

On team-wide level, we have a huge problem with elite corsi not leading to goals. The 3M line has elite corsi but poor goal-scoring - don't you think we should at least look at them as maybe part of that problem?

That second claim simply isn't correct. The 3M line has brutal offense this year. Out of 141 line combos to see 100 minutes this year, they rank 114th league-wide. For perspective: Buffalo ranks dead-last this year in 5v5 offense with 1.75 goals / 60 minutes. The 3M line is currently producing at 1.68 goals / 60. Their "good offense" reputation is entirely based on last year.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Kovaz

Oh definitely. They're facing tougher competition with worse zone starts and that definitely is impacting their production.

My point was more that they've pretty much been a shutdown line this year, rather than the dominant two-way line they were last year. On a team that's struggling to score goals, they are also struggling to score goals. Last year it was totally out of the question to shuffle them up because 3M was carrying our offense, so the bottom 6 was just a matter of cobbling together whatever we could manage with the slim pickings that were there. This year, some line juggling becomes a much more attractive option - there's a lot less risk of it hurting our overall offense when 3M isn't scoring anyway.

Maybe we could bump Frolik down to the Bennett-Jankowski line to help them generate some zone time. Maybe we move Tkachuk to that line, and double down on (Lazar? Hathaway?)-Backlund-Frolik as a shutdown line. Maybe we bump Bennett up and see if Bennett-Backlund-Tkachuk can generate some offense.

But I think at some point you have to try something new, despite Gulutzan's insistence on changing nothing and letting them work through it. We shuffle our lines less than any other team in the league*, and I think a gentle nudge in the direction of the line blender could help us find some different chemistry.

* Some support for that claim: Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland is the line that has played the most time together in the league, and were it not for Frolik's injury the 3M line's pace would have them in first instead (they're still 4th despite missing 10 games). Only 10 line combos league wide have >400 minutes together. Had Frolik not been injured, we'd have two lines with >500 minutes. And it's not due to a top-heavy ice time distribution either: Gaudreau is our only forward in the top 30 league-wide TOI (20th), and Backlund is next at 50th.

Agreed, I was about to post something similar.

Here's my suggestion on how to internally 'fix' the issue:
Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland
Tkachuck-Backlund-Brouwer/Lazar(when healthy)
Bennett-Jankowski-Frolik
Hathaway/Versteeg-Stajan-Lazar/Lomberg

[oldschoolcalgary]

Originally Posted by Kovaz

Oh definitely. They're facing tougher competition with worse zone starts and that definitely is impacting their production.

My point was more that they've pretty much been a shutdown line this year, rather than the dominant two-way line they were last year. On a team that's struggling to score goals, they are also struggling to score goals. Last year it was totally out of the question to shuffle them up because 3M was carrying our offense, so the bottom 6 was just a matter of cobbling together whatever we could manage with the slim pickings that were there. This year, some line juggling becomes a much more attractive option - there's a lot less risk of it hurting our overall offense when 3M isn't scoring anyway.

Maybe we could bump Frolik down to the Bennett-Jankowski line to help them generate some zone time. Maybe we move Tkachuk to that line, and double down on (Lazar? Hathaway?)-Backlund-Frolik as a shutdown line. Maybe we bump Bennett up and see if Bennett-Backlund-Tkachuk can generate some offense.

But I think at some point you have to try something new, despite Gulutzan's insistence on changing nothing and letting them work through it. We shuffle our lines less than any other team in the league*, and I think a gentle nudge in the direction of the line blender could help us find some different chemistry.

* Some support for that claim: Gaudreau-Monahan-Ferland is the line that has played the most time together in the league, and were it not for Frolik's injury the 3M line's pace would have them in first instead (they're still 4th despite missing 10 games). Only 10 line combos league wide have >400 minutes together. Had Frolik not been injured, we'd have two lines with >500 minutes. And it's not due to a top-heavy ice time distribution either: Gaudreau is our only forward in the top 30 league-wide TOI (20th), and Backlund is next at 50th.

i totally agree that some line shuffling needs to happen if we ever hope to get Bennett to play to his potential; i've been an advocate of moving Bennett up to play with Backlund and Frolik while moving Chuck down temporarily... like 5 games or so...

if 2M can make Brouwer look decent again, the hope is that they can help Bennett... I am not worried about Tkachuk; kid has tons of confidence in his game and it give Janko a gut that can legitimately put the puck in the net, which isn't something one can say about Bennett at this point in time.

[868904]

If you really look at the flames forward core, it is essentially all home grown and drafted.

Majority of the recent cup winners made deals to supplement the forward core:

Kings trading Simmonds and Schenn for Carter and Richards was a ballsy move;

Pens acquired Kessel which allowed them to ice two formidable scoring lines;

The Hawks acquired Hossa to supplement their forward core.

So it wouldn't be out of the norm if the Flames acquired a top 6 forward rather than waiting for another one to develop internally. The most recent cup winners all made deals to acquire top 6 veteran forwards to supplement what they developed internally.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by 868904

If you really look at the flames forward core, it is essentially all home grown and drafted.

Majority of the recent cup winners made deals to supplement the forward core:

Kings trading Simmonds and Schenn for Carter and Richards was a ballsy move;

Pens acquired Kessel which allowed them to ice two formidable scoring lines;

The Hawks acquired Hossa to supplement their forward core.

So it wouldn't be out of the norm if the Flames acquired a top 6 forward rather than waiting for another one to develop internally. The most recent cup winners all made deals to acquire top 6 veteran forwards to supplement what they developed internally.

Without giving up the 2019 1st round pick, valamaki, or Anderson, and more the flames likely don't have the assets to acquire a legitimate top 6 winger with term.

They either need to double down and really go all in, or stay the course and continue to build a team that will be competitive for the long haul & strike when the time is right.

I don't think this is the year the Flames do it. If all goes as good as you could reasonably expect, I can see them getting to the conference finals, but have a hard time seeing them getting through the central division. I can't see them beating Winnipeg or Nashville.