Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[DoubleF]

Originally Posted by ranchlandsselling

Oh, I fully understand how that starter/midrange price range works. But, assuming someone bought a house 3 years ago, assuming the economic environment was exactly the same, there's really not much reason for a price increase beyond annual inflation. So, with everything being equal sure, some small inflationary gains.

But we're not equal. We're so gosh darn unequal it borders on ludicrous that the prices would be up over 3 years. I think it's stupid that a realtor would likely suggest me listing my place for $75k more than I paid.

Possibly because of the slower and gradual claw back of the value? (Not questioning you, pretty much a Socratic question to answer your question)

For instance, when I first bought my condo unit for about $200k 4 years ago. Within 1 year it was worth 10% more than I paid (I knew someone who bought within 4 months of me at this price, same size and layout). Within 2 years it was worth 25% more at around $255k listing price.

Then it fell to 235k the year after and around $225k this past December. I recently "dumped it" for around $210k, but realistically, I got lucky and after all fees and whatnot, I should have been receiving around $200k.

Now that's what I've seen on my own property. I could imagine someone buying in 3 years back trying to get those same prices, but that's not what the home is worth. However, your example still seems like whoever is trying to sell is lagging behind nearly 2 years in pricing?

Based on my conversations with several others who own multiple properties, another thing they are doing is selling at a slightly outrageous rate. No sell, no costs. If they hit, they win. If they don't they're still renting out the property without issues/living in it. Essentially, they're seeing if someone will overpay for their nice unit so that they can take the cash and upgrade to a nice home in this market for free.

I have even heard of someone selling the home they live in, buying a condo unit (or plural) near downtown and then living in a friends basement for dirt cheap rent while reaping good rents on their rental properties and spending some temporary time enjoying their unit between renters.

IMO, the problem is that there are many homes on the market where the seller actually has no incentive other than overpayment to sell the property. I've also started meeting individuals who no longer need multiple properties to be a landlord. They are renters with a property they rent out. Kinda like an AirBnB set up, but all the time.

Originally Posted by Tron_fdc

I'm curious how much our market is affected by China. I know it's a big "problem" in Vancouver, but has it trickled into Calgary as well?

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...ticle26683767/

Any realtors want to chime in?

I don't know much, but I'll chime in with what I know about China investors.

China house buying tours came about 4-5 years ago (just prior to CNOOC purchased Nexen). They literally came in groups of like 20 individuals buying homes like handbags (I went to a place the tour groups often ate and listened to the conversations. Fellow tour members were having a "bad day" if they bought 3 or less condo units/houses over their tour trip). Theoretically, they could sell at what they bought plus minor premium and still make money. However, as I noted earlier, I don't think there is an incentive to sell. They're looking to catch the next idiot investor or desperate buyer. But IMO that should not affect "normal" people selling at reasonable prices.

[Canehdianman]

Originally Posted by InBurkeWeTrust

Looking into upgrading my house right now and seeing how much I can push new builders to move on their pricing. I've seen at best 55k pre-negotiation on 2400 sq ft + houses.

I wonder if I can push them another 10-15k


Also, how have you guys been finding the 1500sq ft, single home, detached garage market? I was thinking that these houses would be more affordable and therefore the market for them is still decent, or will continue to be decent when my new build finishes

That's pretty much exactly what I'll be selling when we upgrade. I don't think prices on these homes has dropped much yet. Still lots of demand for them.

Let me know if you want to live in Douglas Glen though

[temple5]

Originally Posted by Calgary14

I can't imagine anyone willing to lineup to buy a condo in Legacy, especially in this market, but apparently it's happening (according to the developer). http://calgaryherald.com/life/homes/...s-under-200000

I am glad to see at least one floor plan with 3 bedrooms offered, to bad its in btfk nowhere.

I wish there were some non executive 3 bedroom condos closer to downtown. Hard to swing a family in a 2 bedroom condo.

[rain_e]

Originally Posted by Canehdianman

That's pretty much exactly what I'll be selling when we upgrade. I don't think prices on these homes has dropped much yet. Still lots of demand for them.

Let me know if you want to live in Douglas Glen though

I had a friend list one in Mahogany for 60 days and took it off the market after 1 price drop. Specs keep popping up on MLS for increased competition.

[Canehdianman]

Yeah, I'm debating keeping it and renting it out, but it seems like such a hassle. One house is enough headache for me.

I'm sure the bigger more expensive house we will be buying will drop faster than our starter home at least.

[polak]

Originally Posted by temple5

I am glad to see at least one floor plan with 3 bedrooms offered, to bad its in btfk nowhere.

I wish there were some non executive 3 bedroom condos closer to downtown. Hard to swing a family in a 2 bedroom condo.

Please don't live in a wood frame condo with a family with small children.

It's absolute hell for whoever lives below you.

[REDVAN]

Please do live in those buildings, so that the whiners have even more butthurt.

[Swift]

polak's avatar goes really well with many of his posts.

[polak]

Originally Posted by Cameron Swift

polak's avatar goes really well with many of his posts.

I know right?

Live in whatever building you like, it's your right after all, but know that whoever is living under you is probably wishing all hell upon you and your family because you and your kids have now significantly impacted their enjoyment of their home which cost them hundreds of thousands of dollars and their quality of life as they are now at the whim of your schedule and your kids mood.

[InBurkeWeTrust]

Originally Posted by Canehdianman

That's pretty much exactly what I'll be selling when we upgrade. I don't think prices on these homes has dropped much yet. Still lots of demand for them.

Let me know if you want to live in Douglas Glen though

Very tempted to buy, but I have major reservations w/ the economy

Not Douglas Glen NW here

[Canehdianman]

Originally Posted by InBurkeWeTrust

Very tempted to buy, but I have major reservations w/ the economy

Not Douglas Glen NW here

Yes, upgrading will carry some risk, but if we can save over 100k then it seems reasonable. Luckily, both my wife and I practice in non O&G related fields so we are somewhat insulated.

Good luck with your house hunt

[DoubleF]

Originally Posted by InBurkeWeTrust

Very tempted to buy, but I have major reservations w/ the economy

Not Douglas Glen NW here

The "loss in market value" we took on our smaller property did not outweigh the "savings due to drop in market value" we made on the bigger, better, newer place. Our new place can still be sustained on just one of our two incomes (Inner city).

The way we viewed it, we could have taken a bigger "loss" on the original property and still win on the new place overall.

Edit: used "" because "losses" weren't actual losses. Just a decrease in value.

[InBurkeWeTrust]

Originally Posted by DoubleF

The "loss in market value" we took on our smaller property did not outweigh the "savings due to drop in market value" we made on the bigger, better, newer place. Our new place can still be sustained on just one of our two incomes (Inner city).

The way we viewed it, we could have taken a bigger "loss" on the original property and still win on the new place overall.

Edit: used "" because "losses" weren't actual losses. Just a decrease in value.

The loss for us is mainly due the uncertainties with the job market. I work in OG so you just never know. We've been trying to make a decision for the past couple weeks and making sure to read all articles/rumours related to real estate and the economy.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by Cameron Swift

polak's avatar goes really well with many of his posts.

Originally Posted by polak

I know right?

Polak you best give credit where credit is due.

[polak]

Originally Posted by heep223

Polak you best give credit where credit is due.

[temple5]

Originally Posted by polak

Please don't live in a wood frame condo with a family with small children.

It's absolute hell for whoever lives below you.

Absolute hell, people walking around?

At any stage in my life I dont think I would want to live anywhere near someone who would think that.

Back to 3br...

I went to a showcase for a building in Bridgeland, 1300sf new build not yet under construction that has original floor plan of 2br 1 office and asked if I can I change the layout of the walls a bit to convert it into a 3br and remove a walkin closet and the sales lady flat out said no.

I have never bought a new build before but is that normal, i figured paying 500k+ and putting 60k down for a place would allow you to modify some of the non load bearing walls especially if its at this stage. I didnt think my request was unreasonable, nor would it have added much cost if any as I would have them remove a useless walkin closet.

If the city wants ppl to move to the inner city then someone needs to be done about this lack of 3br if its not a +1mil

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by rain_e

I had a friend list one in Mahogany for 60 days and took it off the market after 1 price drop. Specs keep popping up on MLS for increased competition.

That's what I saw too. I suspect the CREB stats paint a rosier pictures than the truth because these listed and de-listed properties are not included in the stats.

[temple5]

Originally Posted by polak

I know right?

Live in whatever building you like, it's your right after all, but know that whoever is living under you is probably wishing all hell upon you and your family because you and your kids have now significantly impacted their enjoyment of their home which cost them hundreds of thousands of dollars and their quality of life as they are now at the whim of your schedule and your kids mood.

Interesting, a segment of society notorious for loud music after curfew, weed smoke from the balcony, parties that go on long after noise curfew, and general disrespect of common property (litter etc) think that people obeying the building rules durring the day give 2 shats what they think because they need to sleep in till noon after a night of hpv roulette?

Ever heard of adult only buildings?

[polak]

Originally Posted by temple5

Absolute hell, people walking around?

If your kids only walk around then you are a miracle worker. Kid above us runs, jumps, stomps, dances and rolls. Especially when he wakes up in morning at 6:45 am. That's fun.

I'm going to do one of those youtube reaction videos whenever we have people over and the upstairs neighbors are home. It's always reassuring to see their reactions to confirm that we're not crazy.

Originally Posted by temple5

Interesting, a segment of society notorious for loud music after curfew, weed smoke from the balcony, parties that go on long after noise curfew, and general disrespect of common property (litter etc) think that people obeying the building rules durring the day give 2 shats what they think because they need to sleep in till noon after a night of hpv roulette?

Ever heard of adult only buildings?

I have no issue with occasional noise from my neighbours. In fact, our downstairs neighbours are about the same age as me and have people over more often then we do (the most people I've had over after 11 has been 4 plus my gf and I and we just played beer pong) and have an annoying little dog that barks all day. That doesn't bug me at all. It's the complete lack of respect for the people below you when you walk/run around that is the biggest source of anger.

You live in a condo. Walk like it. Stop ####ing stomping on your heels every step. It's not that hard to walk on the balls of your feet or slide your feet a bit more and not make all of the light fixtures shake in the unit below you.

[Canehdianman]

Originally Posted by polak

If your kids only walk around then you are a miracle worker. Kid above us runs, jumps, stomps, dances and rolls. Especially when he wakes up in morning at 6:45 am. That's fun.

I'm going to do one of those youtube reaction videos whenever we have people over and the upstairs neighbors are home. It's always reassuring to see their reactions to confirm that we're not crazy.

You are crazy. But its for living in a condo and expecting it to be quiet...