2016 NHL Draft

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Well Ricardo scouts are actually watching these kids and base their opinion on that. They aren't just looking at stats and making questionable leaps of logic like you love to do.

The Flames coaches (they kept on dressing him) and front office as well as a majority of CPers thought that Mason Raymond was doing fine after his first 20 games as a Flame 5 goals 7 pts in 20 games.... (20 goal pace ... what more could we expect) I took the questionable leap of logic and saw that he had 6 of those points in 2 games ... against the Oilers and Jets and the rest of the time he was a waste of ice time.

I really hope that the scouts are just not awed by the 27 pts in 12 games.... I initially was and thought that was a good reason to have him bumped up in the rankings.


There is an article where some scouts are questioning how he could move up that much at that high in the draft. How did he pass Tkachuk who has 16 goals and 33 pts in 14 playoff games and counting?

[oldschoolcalgary]

once the draft order is determined, i am sure this thread will "go up to 11"... if there is any hockey karma, we'll be drafting ahead of Edmonton for once...

looking at tape, keller is a very impressive player, in spite of his size... if we fall to 8th...

i think what's difficult for the average fan is that highlight tapes only tell the tale of the highlights... hard to know what is happening off camera... so they are useful only up to a certain degree...

cannot wait until Saturday!

[JiriHrdina]

Christ man. The majority of CP did NOT think Raymond was doing fine.
Stop pretending that you are smarter than everyone else here.

[JiriHrdina]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

Angelo Esposito?

People like to point at Esposito as a huge bust, but really what de-railed his career was knee injuries. His best attribute was his skating and when his knees took that away - he was a shadow of himself.
Feel bad for the kid as he is mis-represented constantly.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by New Era

Just want to throw another name in the fire of guys who have impressed me more and more with each viewing. Max Jones of the London Knights seems like a guy flying under the radar at the moment. He's got good size and is a true power forward. He loves to come hard off the boards and bull his way to the net. Reminds me of a young Jarome Iginla, except a better skater at the same age. Looks like a good fit for the Flames if they remain in the same slot or move down. Wouldn't be disappointed at all with his selection.

No way would I use our selection on Max Jones and I am a Knights season ticket holder. Yes,he is a good banger and is a true power forward in every sense but there are issues. He is very streaky, he will disappear at times. He can also take very bad penalties as well. I would be on board with you if he wasn't so damn streaky or we were picking outside the top 10.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

Angelo Esposito?

nope, doesn't really fit the narrative at all.

[bubbsy]

Originally Posted by edslunch

That's a big sacrifice. Pubes might be easier.

i don't know giving up the ingestion of alcohol is a much harder thing to give up than giving up ingestion of ones' own pubes....

Curious that you disagree

[ricardodw]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Terrible argument. You don't score goals by being big and strong. You score goals by shooting the puck. Dubois has an excellent shot. His size/strength will help his game translate to the NHL more easily. He'll still be above average in size at the NHL level. His size/strength is a positive, a good asset, it's something to like about him and it's something that will help him succeed in the NHL.

Trying to spin it as a negative is ass backwards. It's a nonsensical argument.

You believe otherwise? Show us all the guys rated to go top 5 who scored goals in junior because they were big and then failed at the NHL level because they were still big. Such a silly argument, we hear it every year and it literally makes no sense.

Not top 5 but Mantha and Gauthier were both big guys from the Q who were in the top 10 central scouting rankings in 2013 and have become projects. Poirier was never ranked that high but scored a lot of big man goals in the Q as an 18 year old and hasn't brought that forward as a pro.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

While I agree it's less of a fear for Dubios, I think the poster is just saying a potential risk could exist. That's a fair concern and doesn't call for an over-the-top reaction calling their thinking ass backwards or nonsensical. There are big players each year the scouts fall in love that go higher than they should, just because they were big and could score in junior. It doesn't mean they're destined to fail - but it doesn't always translate to the NHL. Look at a guy like Nick Ritchie. And I wouldn't be doing backflips if Lawson Crouse was our pick last year at #11 or if we draft Julien Gauthier this year.

It makes no logical sense at all. Guys who are bigger have their games translate more easily to the NHL, not less easily. If you are bigger it is easier to power through NHL defenders. If you are bigger you have a longer reach. If you are bigger you can protect the puck more easily. If you are bigger you can take a hit to make a play and not get destroyed. If you are bigger you can more easily shrug off checks and push defenders away. If you are bigger you can more easily win board battles if you use your size/strength to your advantage (some big players don't have the necessary core strength to be as hard on the puck as they should be but that's a different matter.) If you are bigger you can more easily stand in front of the net, soak up abuse, not be moved by shoving and crosschecks and thus more easily screen the goalie, deflect pucks in or be around the crease for garbage rebound goals.

The only way the argument makes sense if is you are talking about later picks. I could see why people would complain about picks like Hunter Smith and Keegan Kanizg and say they were picked based on size. But Dubois? Dubois is one of the more skilled forwards in the draft. He isn't being overrated because of size, scouts love his all around package of size, skill and skating. Ideally you want size, skill and skating. So thinking he's overrated because he's big is silly thinking. Was Getzlaf overrated in his draft year because he was big and strong in junior? Nope. If anything he was underrated. Was Joe Thornton overrated in his draft year because he was big and strong in junior? nope. I mean we could do this for hours.

As for Crouse he remains a top prospect and Florida fans are very excited about his potential. Nick Ritchie played in the NHL this year and didn't look out of place. Having big, strong skilled players is important. Tune in to any playoff game to see the impact they can bring.

Size is an asset, not a detriment. That kind of thinking is backwards I'm sorry. Nobody is rated to go top 10 in a draft with a nice top end only because they are big. You have to have skill, skating and character to be rated that highly. Dubois has the total package. His size is not a concern, it's a positive attribute. His size isn't something that should worry us, it's something that should excite us.

I really don't understand that argument at all in regards to highly skilled, fast, big, strong players. It's pure and utter nonsense.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

Not top 5 but Mantha and Gauthier were both big guys from the Q who were in the top 10 central scouting rankings in 2013 and have become projects. Poirier was never ranked that high but scored a lot of big man goals in the Q as an 18 year old and hasn't brought that forward as a pro.

Mantha had big issues on his drive, consistency and effort level in his draft year. I think you'll find thats the real reason he's struggled at times. Should we avoid players who have questions on their compete level? Yes we should avoid them. The Flames prioritize compete level highly.

Too early to say Poirier and Gauthier won't turn out. Too early on Mantha even as well. Gauthier is dropping this year because he scored goal per game at the start of the year, then 4 in his last 17 or so and then was disappointing in the playoffs as they got upset. Scouts questions several things about his game but size has nothing to do with why he's dropping.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by ricardodw

There is an article where some scouts are questioning how he could move up that much at that high in the draft. How did he pass Tkachuk who has 16 goals and 33 pts in 14 playoff games and counting?

Well their head scout Dar Marr was on the radio recently and said he basically sees Tkachuk, Dubois and Nylander as equal but that they had to put someone #1. Can't find the interview right now but I can if need be.

You don't seem to understand it's not just about the points they score right now. Scouting is about projecting how good a player will be in 5 years. Scoring a couple more goals this year doesn't necessarily mean player X will turn out better than player Y in 5 years. The primary way to project a player is to watch them and identify how well their skill set will project if they keep developing. You can't scout based on numbers although that would suit you great wouldn't it?

[dying4acup]

Esposito was drafted 20th overall, not top 5.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Some interviews. Boy oh boy does the Canucks radio coverage of the draft put the Flames coverage to shame so far.

Canucks PBP voice discussing what the Nucks should do should they draft 4-6
http://www.tsn.ca/radio/vancouver-10...d-six-1.480052

Pierre Maguire (eyeroll) talking about how he likes Chychrun/Tkachuk at #4
http://www.tsn.ca/radio/vancouver-10...-four-1.479476

Botchford saying the Nucks should take a forward top 5
http://www.tsn.ca/radio/vancouver-10...rward-1.478706

Shane Malloy saying it wouldn't be a reach to take a dman at 4 or 5
http://www.tsn.ca/radio/vancouver-10...-spot-1.478320

Dim Jim Benning on not trading out of the top 3. Says they'll take BPA in the top 4. Says they might force a dman after that.
http://www.tsn.ca/radio/vancouver-10...three-1.476159

Craig Button saying its hard to justify taking a dman at #4
http://www.tsn.ca/radio/vancouver-10...erall-1.476628

Hey Kerr and Steinberg, why is the Canucks radio coverage of the draft just smoking you guys so far?

[burnitdown]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

I really don't understand that argument at all in regards to highly skilled, fast, big, strong players.

That much is clear.

The argument isn't whether Dubois will be a bust or not. It's whether his size has given him an advantage in junior that he won't have as much of, when playing in the NHL. And IF he'll have a more difficult time scoring when he plays against much bigger competition, then how much does it affect his ranking (if at all)? That has to be considered as you're not deciding if he'll be a good prospect or not...you're deciding if you should draft him compared to a batch of other similarly ranked prospects with different blend of skill/size/speed.

Just cause Dubois has shown offensive ability in juniors and is big, doesn't mean his game will necessarily translate better to the NHL than Nylander. Size (whether big or small) is a factor to consider...that's all that's being raised here. And I'm sure it's something the scouts will discuss so it's not as idiotic to discuss, as you suggest.

[Flames Draft Watcher]

Originally Posted by burnitdown

The argument isn't whether Dubois will be a bust or not. It's whether his size has given him an advantage in junior that he won't have as much of in the NHL.

Junior isn't that much smaller than the NHL. And the top players in junior face the biggest, strongest defensemen the opposition has. So it's not really an issue at all, scouts can see on a weekly basis how Dubois does against a big 6'4 defenseman in the corners and in front of the net. For example Windsor this year will have a 6'6 centre (Brown), a 6'7 defenseman (Stanley) and a 6'2 defenseman drafted (Sergachev). There's NHL teams that don't have a singe player as large as Brown/Stanley.

The advantage Dubois has due to size in junior will be extremely similar to his size advantage in the NHL once he adds some more muscle. If he uses his size well in junior it increases his chance of having his skills translate.

Originally Posted by burnitdown

And IF he'll have a harder time translating his game when he plays against much bigger players, then how much does it affect his ranking?

It just isn't a concern. Your IF is not something that crosses scouts minds from everything I've read and heard in 20 years of following the draft super closely. When they look at a player with NHL size like Dubois it just means there one less question mark on him (size). Lack of size means a player will drop (see Clayton Keller and his top 5 skills, see Johnny Gaudreau.) Having NHL size means the player doesn't have a question mark in that area. So they'll judge him on his skill.

It's basically the opposite of what you're suggesting. He'll have an easier time translating his game because he has NHL size. It wouldn't cross a scouts mind that he'll have a harder time translating his game, that part is the part you've got backwards.

Originally Posted by burnitdown

Just cause Dubois has shown offensive ability in juniors and is big, doesn't mean his game will necessarily translate better to the NHL than Nylander. Size (whether big or small) is a factor to consider...that's all that's being raised here. And I'm sure it's something the scouts will discuss so it's not as idiotic to discuss, as you suggest.

And yet he is ranked higher than Nylander by many. Nylander may be less effective at the NHL level because he will be more easily overpowered and dominated physically. He has a small size/physicality question on him. Not as much as a guy like Gaudreau or Keller obviously. But will Nylander fight along the boards successfully vs a guy like Shea Weber? Will he go to the front of the net if Weber is crosschecking and shoving him? Or will he shy away? By most reports Nylander doesn't shy away from the boards so it may not be a huge concern. But it's certainly less of a concern for Dubois because he looks like he'll fill out to be a much stronger and bigger player than Nylander. Dubois when fully filled out can much more easily expect to win a physical battle in the corner vs a Weber. Dubois when fully filled out can much more easily expect to drive the net and take punishment along the way than the smaller and slighter Nylander.

To be a successful forward in the NHL you need to beat NHL defenders. Not everyone can do it with the pure elusiveness, agility, anticipation and skating of a Gaudreau. Most players will need to win board battles or net front battles to be effective. Size is an advantage for Dubois not a disadvantage. We've seen how slightly below average players like Baertschi and Granlund were significantly less effective at the NHL level due to not having the size and jam to win those board and net front battles. Dubois doesn't have that question mark on him.

[albertGQ]

Sorry, but on average, junior is ALOT smaller than the NHL. Not sure why you are saying it isn't.

We're talking kids 16-19 years old vs grown men

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Flames Draft Watcher

Some interviews. Boy oh boy does the Canucks radio coverage of the draft put the Flames coverage to shame so far.

Hey Kerr and Steinberg, why is the Canucks radio coverage of the draft just smoking you guys so far?

I don't mind it actually - kind of enjoy that they are focusing on the hockey that is still going on even though Calgary may not be involved in the playoffs.

The first round of the playoffs is one of the most exciting times to be a hockey fan and they have been providing great coverage of that by bringing in the local analysts to talk about those teams, and providing live broadcasts.

Still two months until the draft actually occurs - and the lottery hasn't even happened yet. If you start talking about this stuff too early by the time that it's actually draft week and the playoffs are over then you have already talked about all this stuff multiple times already.

Lots of time to hear about what player the talking head thinks the Flames will draft at 2nd overall.

[expo2428]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I don't mind it actually - kind of enjoy that they are focusing on the hockey that is still going on even though Calgary may not be involved in the playoffs.

The first round of the playoffs is one of the most exciting times to be a hockey fan and they have been providing great coverage of that by bringing in the local analysts to talk about those teams, and providing live broadcasts.

Still two months until the draft actually occurs - and the lottery hasn't even happened yet. If you start talking about this stuff too early by the time that it's actually draft week and the playoffs are over then you have already talked about all this stuff multiple times already.

Lots of time to hear about what player the talking head thinks the Flames will draft at 2nd overall.

I agree 100%, I actually really enjoy listening to the insiders of other NHL teams in the playoffs talk about their team. It gives a little more insight of whats happening in some of the other series around the league. Its a great time of hear to hear about that kind of stuff, it builds of excitement for me personally.

Thats not to say I don't want to hear about the draft because thats something I always look forward to but like you said also theres still plenty of time to talk about those kinds of things.

[Vulcan]

Originally Posted by albertGQ

Sorry, but on average, junior is ALOT smaller than the NHL. Not sure why you are saying it isn't.

We're talking kids 16-19 years old vs grown men

Maybe but I remember some one bringing up that last years Hitmen were bigger than last years Flames.

[Caged Great]

The main thing when it comes to scouting players has nothing to do with stats, but rather how they do what they do on the ice. It's all about that spark of creativity to do things in an atypical fashion. Anyone can shoot the puck on net and score, if you can do that while pulling moves that show a higher level competence, then you're awesome. Most guys that are expecting to be drafted should have great stats, otherwise it's a reach to be picked.

That's why guys like Ehlers stand out from prior drafts and Keller and Jost from this one. Typically guys that have size like Brown and Ritchie don't have that shiftiness and are more linear up and down type players, which is useful, but typically those guys go after the more skilled players regardless. Usually those guys have a more limited higher level potential. It is basically the argument of taking the guy who might be an all star but has some warts, vs taking a guy that will likely be a solid middle six player. When it comes to selecting between the two, it depends on how your prospect pool and roster is set up. If you have few prospects and a mediocre team, then you're more apt to take the riskier high end guy, like the Leafs did with Nylander and the Jets did with Ehlers. If you have an established core and are looking to flesh out your roster then it makes sense to get that quality middle sixer with size, which Anaheim did. Calgary currently is in between those two, which the direction they will take depends entirely on what is available when they pick. If they can add a higher end talent that isn't undersized, they will, because that entirely makes sense. If the options are Keller vs Brown, then I highly doubt they go with Keller. Although at that point, they may opt to trade down depending on what is on the board, too many variables to forecast from this point.