Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[BeltlineFan]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

It reduces the benefit of playing in a no income tax state because chances are you are also paying more in property taxes.

This is an important point. This graph has a good, albeit basic visualization of income tax, property tax and sales tax.

It's hard to know exactly how taxes would affect each player without knowing their spending habits, but unless you live in New York or Tennessee there's not a lot of difference.

Spoiler!

[Lonestar]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Players care about what the average salary they get. I doubt they care if in 2025 they happen to be the highest paid for that year only.

These are guaranteed contracts, I believe the player cares more about total contract value that maximizes their career earnings, not the d*** measuring contest of being a top 3-7 AAV player. IMO that's what makes the 8th year so valuable.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I do a LOT of thread skimming because it's mostly the same convo rehashed over and over....what the hell did I miss here?

A rumour of offer details to JG that was either completely true and obtained nefariously which someone could get in serious #### for sharing or a rumour that was completely bogus which can easily be ignored anyway.

I’m going with option 1 because it’s more fun.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I do a LOT of thread skimming because it's mostly the same convo rehashed over and over....what the hell did I miss here?

Nothing bad, it was a leak on contract structure and OP is worried about continuing the leak I think or it was bad info. Either way, basically just the Flames gave a new contract offer as a starting point.

[ComixZone]

$9.5M is not high enough, but if true it was just a starting point.

$11M is the actual starting point for Johnny. $88-$95M seems to be the appropriate range for one of the elite players in the league.

$11.5M x 8, $92M.

That would keep Johnny here.

[CF84]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

$9.5M is not high enough, but if true it was just a starting point.

$11M is the actual starting point for Johnny. $88-$95M seems to be the appropriate range for one of the elite players in the league.

$11.5M x 8, $92M.

That would keep Johnny here.

He may be elite, but he is not an elite center or #1 D. You really think $12.5 x 7 is his starting point for other teams? That's the same AAV as McDavid and I don't see any teams jumping at that sort of cap hit.

Johnny is amazing, but I'd guess the actual starting point he would consider is probably closer to an $80 million contract.

Hopefully they come to an agreement soon!

[blankall]

Originally Posted by CF84

He may be elite, but he is not an elite center or #1 D. You really think $12.5 x 7 is his starting point for other teams? That's the same AAV as McDavid and I don't see any teams jumping at that sort of cap hit.

Johnny is amazing, but I'd guess the actual starting point he would consider is probably closer to an $80 million contract.

Hopefully they come to an agreement soon!

Gaudreau has elite offensive and playmaking ability, but he totally lacks other parts of his game. If you could somehow combine his abilities with a player like Mark Stone, you'd have that generational player worth the $12.5 million/year.

That being said the Rangers did throw $11.6/year at Panarin...so who knows.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by CF84

He may be elite, but he is not an elite center or #1 D. You really think $12.5 x 7 is his starting point for other teams? That's the same AAV as McDavid and I don't see any teams jumping at that sort of cap hit.

Johnny is amazing, but I'd guess the actual starting point he would consider is probably closer to an $80 million contract.

Hopefully they come to an agreement soon!

Panarin got 14.29% in one of the most desirable markets.

Gaudreau is better than Panarin. 11.79M would be the same pay as Panarin's deal percentage-wise on a 7 year deal.

Is there a value to be assigned to playing in Calgary Vs. New York City? Regardless of what we think of our city, it's likely viewed as one of the less desirable spots.

There's also the age difference, so Panarin signed when he was a bit younger.

8 years at 13.65% of the salary cap seems like a pretty good for an elite player in this league.

Also keep in mind that in a few years it's likely the salary cap will increase a decent amount. Not just from increased revenue thanks to the new TV deal and Seattle being around, but also because of what's happening with inflation - the number of dollars being pumped into the league will go up in the coming years, so locking in Johnny at 13.65% of todays cap (ditto with Tkachuk) seems like a solid play.

The alternative is he walks and signs a $12M+ deal elsewhere, and this organization is left with...what?

[CF84]

Originally Posted by blankall

Gaudreau has elite offensive and playmaking ability, but he totally lacks other parts of his game. If you could somehow combine his abilities with a player like Mark Stone, you'd have that generational player worth the $12.5 million/year.

That being said the Rangers did throw $11.6/year at Panarin...so who knows.

Panarin's contract was for 7 years though which would be like the Flames paying Johnny $10.1875 over 8.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by CF84

Panarin's contract was for 7 years though which would be like the Flames paying Johnny $10.1875 over 8.

1. New York is a higher valued destination
2. Gaudreau is better than Panarin
3. Panarin's deal if signed today would be $11.79M (14.29% of the cap)

You pay a higher premium because Johnny is better, and because Calgary isn't New York - and that's totally fine. This isn't a equal playing field, so we shouldn't be expecting it to play out like one.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

1. New York is a higher valued destination
2. Gaudreau is better than Panarin
3. Panarin's deal if signed today would be $11.79M (14.29% of the cap)

You pay a higher premium because Johnny is better, and because Calgary isn't New York - and that's totally fine. This isn't a equal playing field, so we shouldn't be expecting it to play out like one.

I don't know if Gaudreau is better than Panarin, they are at least the same. Panarin was signed when the cap was expected to increase and then got crushed by covid. I don't think any team signs Gaudreau to a 12.5 million dollar contract.



I am guessing he signs 10.5 here or somewhere else.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Lonestar

These are guaranteed contracts, I believe the player cares more about total contract value that maximizes their career earnings, not the d*** measuring contest of being a top 3-7 AAV player. IMO that's what makes the 8th year so valuable.

To some degree yes. But they would prefer 3 years totalling $10M than 5 years totalling $11M.

But my point was that the distribution of a players salary/bonus between years is for strategic reasons, it's got nothing to do with "having the highest actual salary" in a given year.

But 7 years for $80M is likely better than 8 years at $82M.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I don't know if Gaudreau is better than Panarin, they are at least the same. Panarin was signed when the cap was expected to increase and then got crushed by covid. I don't think any team signs Gaudreau to a 12.5 million dollar contract.



I am guessing he signs 10.5 here or somewhere else.

From The Athletic's article today

According to Evolving Hockey, Gaudreau is in line for a cap hit around $11 million on a max deal.

Gaudreau is projected to be even more valuable than Panarin was at the time (3.5 projected wins). That’s the biggest reason his fair market value is so high at an average of $13.8 million over the next seven seasons. Some might scoff at such a high number, but there’s also the Patrick Kane contract as a comparable. Coming off a point-per-game season where he was projected to be worth 3.5 wins like Panarin, he signed a deal that would be worth the equivalent of $12.6 million today. Gaudreau, at this stage, arguably provides more value than Kane did at the time.

(the article is a solid read, paints Gaudreau as the Franchise Player that he is...that we sometimes undervalue)

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

2. Gaudreau is better than Panarin

I don't think everyone would agree with that.

And before this year, I doubt anyone would agree with it.

Now, I'm not so sure, Johnny was spectacular this year.

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by Moneyhands23

You want to bet on it??

Sure. Give me 25:1 and you got a deal.

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

Sure. Give me 25:1 and you got a deal.

That shows how unsure you are of your opinion!

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I don't think everyone would agree with that.

And before this year, I doubt anyone would agree with it.

Now, I'm not so sure, Johnny was spectacular this year.

Gaudreau was also elevating a poor even strength player every year prior to this one (Monahan). The first time he gets away from him, he shows what he can do.

(Painful to type that, as I really do want Monahan to come back healthy and be better than we've seen - but even prior to the injuries, Mony wasn't a great even strength guy)

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by Moneyhands23

That shows how unsure you are of your opinion!

Does the exact same for you!

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

From The Athletic's article today

(the article is a solid read, paints Gaudreau as the Franchise Player that he is...that we sometimes undervalue)

Yeah, I still think his size and playoff record will keep him from getting above 11 but it is free agency lol.

I'd rather pay him 11.5 than overpay to get Kadri or Forsberg

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

Does the exact same for you!

I'm willing to bet on even odds as I don't run a sports betting book lol. You have been watching to many betting segments on sportsnet! Lol

100 bucks at even monet says he sings in Calgary. Not sure I would risk 2500 to win a 100. That just seems stupid