Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

A CPC led by Jean Charest would have won, imo. Carney has been great which makes their path harder - I think now they probably need their own Carney equivalent to beat him in the next election, or someone very popular but totally off the board.

I'd vote Vladimir Guerrero Jr but he doesn't really speak English or French so that'd be a disadvantage. He was born in Quebec though which is an advantage.

A CPC led by "anyone but Sheer" likely would have won in 2019. After the SNC-Lavalin drama the Liberals were ripe for a loss but Sheer is simply unelectable as the leader of the party because of his positions on abortion and gay marriage. Unfortunately, there really wasn't a good option in that leadership race with the finalists coming down to Sheer, O'Toole, and Bernier.

Similarly, if MacKay had replaced Sheer instead of O'Toole, the CPC likely would have won that election as well. In the leadership race O'Toole said too many things that pandered to the fringe elements of the party and when the Liberals rolled those quotes out in the election he was toast.

In each case, it wasn't so much that Trudeau won the election as much as it was that the CPC couldn't win. They keep trying to reopen social issues that Canada has no interest in changing course on (abortion, gay marriage, etc.). The guy who wins the leadership of the CPC likely does so by signaling support for the more extreme elements of the party and then cannot win a general election.

Now that Carney is eating their lunch, so to speak, and is doing so while being calm and reserved and not needing to go out and say dumb things on right wing podcasts, it is going to be impossible for someone like PP to beat him in an election. With the way the CPC is built they will never be able to elect a moderate or reasonable leader like Carney which really just leaves them in a dead-end.

Look at who is lining up to replace PP. Kenney? Ford? Pretty poor alternatives to Carney. Kenney got chased out of Alberta and Ford was just placated by Carney with a slice of pizza.

[Cappy]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

Watching O'Leary on CNN as a guest panelist, Carney would eat him for breakfast.

The moron got lucky by selling kid's workbooks for 6 million. hahaha.

Someone who looks at Kevin O'Leary and says "this guy has my best interests in mind" needs their head examined.

[Manhattanboy]

O’Leary would not be a good candidate in my view.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Wolven

Look at who is lining up to replace PP. Kenney? Ford? Pretty poor alternatives to Carney. Kenney got chased out of Alberta and Ford was just placated by Carney with a slice of pizza.

Kenney would have an easier go of it. He can speak French, has more connections nationally, and as much as the loons here drummed him out they'd still support him over Ford.

The guy that Conservatives should be trying to coax into going for the job is James Moore.

[indes]

It doesn't look like the CPC has anyone who can compete with Carney. They'll keep their little watchdog to rile up their base but they can't seriously think they're going to win the next election at this rate? Right?

Is it possible that they don't actually even care if they get in power? I'm not entirely convinced they care about more than keeping their base/donations coming in and 100+ seats.

They haven't acted like a party that wants the majority of Canadians votes outside of the libs collapse (that they blew anyways).

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Parallex

I'd guess somewhere in that vicinity... 85% give or take 5%. There was no organized campaign against him and it's here so less accessible for the type of Conservative that would be naturally inclined to want a change at the top. So he won't get some of the far far right crazies for whom any rational person is an unacceptable choice and some of the diehards from out east who can't abide a loser... but for the most part he'll coast through.

I think the bigger question coming out of it is "Does Carney get a majority?" I mean it's not a big secret at this point that the center of gravity for PP's support is in the base, not caucus, so will he lose more MP's?

I think the more spicy question would be: If PP survives this weekend, does the caucus take him out?

Similar to what happened with Trudeau, the sitting MPs could have a vote and remove the leader regardless of whether he survives the AGM.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

A CPC led by Jean Charest would have won, imo. Carney has been great which makes their path harder - I think now they probably need their own Carney equivalent to beat him in the next election, or someone very popular but totally off the board.

I'd vote Vladimir Guerrero Jr but he doesn't really speak English or French so that'd be a disadvantage. He was born in Quebec though which is an advantage.

I actually don’t think “their own Carney” would be quite enough at this point. The equation has changed. Carney worked because he was fresh and was all business, which was a stark contrast to both Trudeau and PP. He also occupies a pretty wide stretch around the center, incorporating both center-right and center-left policies and ideology into his platform. This makes it very hard, imo, to run a further right dupe. Is there a version of Carney out there that is more qualified and slightly further right? I don’t know if I see it.

It’ll remain to be seen, but in the short term dropping the Maple MAGA crap and focusing more on workers and families with a more positive spin (think Trudeau vs Harper) might present a path. But it’s probably a more long term view where they’ll have to wait for some significant Liberal missteps and hope the NDP rebuilds itself to the point where they can attract more of the left off the Liberals again.

Originally Posted by Manhattanboy

O’Leary would not be a good candidate in my view.

He was good in Marty Supreme! He should stick to acting.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by indes

It doesn't look like the CPC has anyone who can compete with Carney. They'll keep their little watchdog to rile up their base but they can't seriously think they're going to win the next election at this rate? Right?

Is it possible that they don't actually even care if they get in power? I'm not entirely convinced they care about more than keeping their base/donations coming in and 100+ seats.

They haven't acted like a party that wants the majority of Canadians votes outside of the libs collapse (that they blew anyways).

This is a good point as well. The CPC has not looked like a party interested or capable of forming government for some years, and this lack of interest was affirmed with the booting of O’Toole, who seemed to have a good sense of what was actually required to win.

That they almost fell backwards into it, saw it suddenly starting to crumble, and decided to maintain the course regardless is not just damning of PP, it’s damning of the whole party.

[TorqueDog]

Would Carney in a blue shirt even appeal to the modern CPC? Not enough slogans and muck-slinging. Clearly him pushing policies that Conservatives have been calling for hasn't worked.

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

It’ll remain to be seen, but in the short term dropping the Maple MAGA crap and focusing more on workers and families with a more positive spin (think Trudeau vs Harper) might present a path. But it’s probably a more long term view where they’ll have to wait for some significant Liberal missteps and hope the NDP rebuilds itself to the point where they can attract more of the left off the Liberals again.

Maybe. Depending on the size and style of the resurgent NDP... I mean I could see an NDP under Ashton actually harming the CPC. Under-cutting their push for unionized blue-collar votes and costing them the gains they made in Southwestern Ontario.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Kenney would have an easier go of it. He can speak French, has more connections nationally, and as much as the loons here drummed him out they'd still support him over Ford.

The guy that Conservatives should be trying to coax into going for the job is James Moore.

I want Kenney to run and win just so we can see some Lib attack ads asking
"where did the $1.6 billion AB tax payer go Jason?" and

" is Bigfoot living rent free in your pea brain?" hahahahah

[TheIronMaiden]

Originally Posted by TorqueDog

Would Carney in a blue shirt even appeal to the modern CPC? Not enough slogans and muck-slinging. Clearly him pushing policies that Conservatives have been calling for hasn't worked.

Carny wouldn't hold water for the evangelicals, they might only make up 30% of the con base, but they are extremely engaged, and vote as a bloc.

[Dentoman]

Originally Posted by Wolven

I think the more spicy question would be: If PP survives this weekend, does the caucus take him out?.

When I'm out grabbing lunch, I listen to Ben Mulroney for laughs. I think it was Monday when he had a couple of Ottawa political pundits on. They had all heard rumours of a caucus split of some type being possible

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Dentoman

When I'm out grabbing lunch, I listen to Ben Mulroney for laughs. I think it was Monday when he had a couple of Ottawa political pundits on. They had all heard rumours of a caucus split of some type being possible

Like a split on voting or a full-blown party fracture? That would be amazing if the party actually split apart.

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by indes

It doesn't look like the CPC has anyone who can compete with Carney. They'll keep their little watchdog to rile up their base but they can't seriously think they're going to win the next election at this rate? Right?

Is it possible that they don't actually even care if they get in power? I'm not entirely convinced they care about more than keeping their base/donations coming in and 100+ seats.

They haven't acted like a party that wants the majority of Canadians votes outside of the libs collapse (that they blew anyways).

I think their game plan will be to double down on the Maple Maga stuff again. Keep trying to spread misinformation in Canada, create distrust in media, healthcare, legal/justice institutions.
Continue to radicalize their base and aim to grow polarization amongst Canadians.

Their only path in is chaos and a broken Canada. They don't actually want what's best for Canadians at this point.

[Dentoman]

Originally Posted by Wolven

Like a split on voting or a full-blown party fracture? That would be amazing if the party actually split apart.

Mulroney brought it up with them first because he had heard about it, then the other two said they had heard the same thing. Think they called it an "independent caucus" or something like that. Sounded like some Conservative MPs from Quebec, GTA and lower mainland were involved. Mulroney had heard Quebec and then one of the other guys mentioned it was broader than that.
All three of them had definitely heard the same story

[Igottago]

So the conservatives spent a decade complaining about the educated "elites" and now don't have any educated people capable of leading the party? Interesting.

[Monahammer]

I think I posted it here, but the caucus split was apparent even in March 2025. Just pre-election, when the numbers really started tumbling there was a well defined split among blame lines- there was a stiff camp blaming Ford and weak centrist conservatives for not having any party loyalty with the whole Team Canada push and support for Carney's stance out of the gate, and there was a growing mostly eastern chorus that pointed at Polievre's lack of ability to pivot.

I am less attached to internal party politics right now, but I presume that divide has only increased. I will say that the sitting MPs are largely loyalists. Even the eastern ones. It would have to be grassroots to get Pierre out- but still could happen.

[Fuzz]

Meanwhile, at the American owned NP...

Poilievre rebuilt the Conservatives with populism. The party must not reject it

There have always been discontent Conservative voices, often proudly bearing the label of “Red Tory,” who have loathed the populist turn of the party. These “pick me” Conservatives represent neither the base, nor the party’s future, and they have no right to claim to be the voice of either.

https://nationalpost.com/opinion/con...eject-populism

And that, as you will discover, is the problem...the Canadian public is much closer on average to a Red Tory or Blue Liberal than they are to a Conservative populist(or an NDP far left socialist).