Quote:
Originally Posted by Roughneck
Why wouldn’t they? This isn’t the fervent left and environmental warriors who see the rise in production as the problem, these would be people who see a significant rise in production and think ‘isn’t that a good thing?’
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#-3's response is typically the one that occurs in these types of discussions and what we generally find in this forum. If such people were reasonable in discussing, the question asking to debate it wouldn't be happening as they would get informed themselves. Generally, they are already of a narrative mindset born out of years of deliberate misinformation and biased agendas.
Case exhibit A
Quote:
Originally Posted by #-3
Finally a Trudeau and Notely supporter who appreciated the infrastructure they built.
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This narrative of course omits that Notley herself called Trudeau completely tone deaf on oil and gas and Alberta issues.
There is far more to the oil industry than just production. Production stayed relatively steady in 2020 even while oil prices were negative yet people at the time weren't gaslighting that oil and gas was doing great. As it happens, you can't just shut off production on a dime, and a shut down could takes months to a year to get back to normal (hence negative prices and the massive fleet of oil tankers sitting around waiting for the world to reopen). This is why despite being at negative, Canada still produced 17.41 millions of cubic meters in May 2020, only 20% lower than the 'all time peak' months of 2024 being vaunted
Heck, the claim that oil has climbed continuously to all time highs is somewhat bogus to begin with, it has stayed relatively flat in recent years fluctuating based on seasonality and isolated incidents (forest fires shutting down production, upgrader maintenance etc).
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/dail...g-f004-eng.htm
January 2020 21.58
September 2024 21.15
Quote:
Oil sands extraction fell 2.5% year over year to 15.3 million cubic metres in September 2024. The decline was driven by lower production of crude bitumen (-9.5%), while production of synthetic crude rose 11.7% year over year despite some turnaround activities underway at two upgraders.
Conventional oil extraction was up 9.1% to 5.9 million cubic metres in September, offsetting the decline in oil sands extraction. The gain was largely driven by the production of light and medium crude oil in Newfoundland and Labrador, which rose 92.4% year over year because of maintenance, reducing production in September 2023.
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And notably, one major factor that has changed in 2024 to influence production is the opening of the TMX expansion which has completely opened up asian markets to Canadian oil exports, and giving a huge boost to WCS not requiring such a significant discount anymore with new markets opened. Oil companies are definitely in a better spot with the opening of TMX (hence offering strong validation that pipelines are in fact needed).
https://www.asiapacific.ca/publicati...sia-and-beyond
Effectively, if your profit margins drop by over half, and you need to double production to make up the margin loss, are you ahead just because you are producing more? Most reasonable folks would say no. That's where oil prices, WCS discount, carbon taxes all factor in to why oil and gas companies still need to produce, and produce more.
This is why Notley bought rail cars to move product to help oil companies stay solvent in a pricing crisis in 2018 caused by lack of pipeline capacity. Yet 2018 was an all time high in production at the time.
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/not...deau-1.4923976
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Western Canadian Select, which includes product from the oilsands, trades at just $11.56 US — less than a quarter of the $51.49 that West Texas Intermediate (WTI), the U.S. gold standard, fetches on the open market. (These prices were current as of Wednesday.)
"Coca-Cola sells sugar-flavoured water for more. We are essentially giving our oil away for free," Notley said.
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I could write an essay on it, but I've already done several on different aspects.
If what I provided helped yourself though in understanding why some people are at odds with the production metric, hopefully the effort was worth the time to write and read.
