We'd probably be on our way to becoming the 51st state with PP in charge. He'd sell and justify it with 3 word slogans and self-congratulatory speeches.
PP has a huge trump problem with his party.
Recent Ekos poll had 50% of Cons approving of the job trump is doing compared to between 0%(Greens)to 6% (Bloc) for all other party voters.
Trump only gets a 38% approval or less in the US among all voters
Now we have the new deal with China, which I think is problematic in a number of ways but largely helps with the effort to shift trade away from the US.
Do we? All we (China & Canada) did was basically roll back the trade relationship to September 30, 2024 wasn't it?
That's good but hardly worth calling a "new deal" IMO.
Greenland is starting to look more and more like a Baltic powder keg every day.
You are thinking of the Balkans, not the Baltic. Balkans is what is usually referred to as the powder keg of Europe.
Balkans was known as a powder keg because of the mass diverse ethnic groups and cultures all within a small area with competing interests.
Greenland casus belli is a complete fabrication by Trump and Trump only with zero justification even within many Republicans, with only 7% support within the country.
Trump is the powder keg. Greenland is the red line (or at least it should be, as we saw with Crimea goalposts can be moved).
The reality is, he probably looked at a map, saw that Greenland looks very big based on the Mercator projection, and said I want that for me.
Do we? All we (China & Canada) did was basically roll back the trade relationship to September 30, 2024 wasn't it?
That's good but hardly worth calling a "new deal" IMO.
It is a shift that promotes more trade away from the US. Whatever label you want to put on it, the result is greater opportunity to export to China at a time when we need to find new targets for our exports.
I am far more interest in our progress with the EU though and it looks like that relationship is going to be a focal point for both trade and defense.
Carney had so many amazing one liners and quotables in that speech, each of them thought provoking.
"Nostalgia is not a strategy." Yet a number of Americans think that midterm will somehow make things right again (and that they actually believe midterms are a sure thing). We must move on in the new reality.
I can't think of a better speech than any other Canadian PM has ever given outside of perhaps Chretien's 1995 referendum speech.
You are thinking of the Balkans, not the Baltic. Balkans is what is usually referred to as the powder keg of Europe.
Balkans was known as a powder keg because of the mass diverse ethnic groups and cultures all within a small area with competing interests.
Greenland casus belli is a complete fabrication by Trump and Trump only with zero justification even within many Republicans, with only 7% support within the country.
Trump is the powder keg. Greenland is the red line (or at least it should be, as we saw with Crimea goalposts can be moved).
The reality is, he probably looked at a map, saw that Greenland looks very big based on the Mercator projection, and said I want that for me.
Sorry, mistyped that number. I meant $1.5-$2T but accidentally typed billion.
And the $3.3T number you guys are talking about includes private investors. Given that the majority of foreign-held US bonds are held privately, NATO governments themselves hold less than half of that.
So $1.5T or so if sold off en masse would definitely spike yields temporarily, but any talk of economic collapse is wishful thinking. It only represents about 4-5% of outstanding US federal debt and it's less than the Federal Reserve bought up in the first 6 months of COVID.
I think you're underestimating how much damage 4-5% can do in the financial system, and even how that could affect the behaviours of private investors. They're not just going to stand idly while US Treasuries get sold off. Remember, the Global Financial Crisis was caused by 4-5% delinquencies in the credit market.
I think you're underestimating how much damage 4-5% can do in the financial system, and even how that could affect the behaviours of private investors. They're not just going to stand idly while US Treasuries get sold off. Remember, the Global Financial Crisis was caused by 4-5% delinquencies in the credit market.
Sure, but delinquencies lead to almost total losses, whereas bonds can be bought by American buyers, other foreign buyers, and the Federal Reserve. For instance, the Federal Reserve bought the equivalent of the entirety of NATO governments' US Treasury holdings in a 5-week period in 2020.
I'm not saying it wouldn't have a negative impact; it would spike yields and spook the markets. But talk of depression level economic devastation isn't really based in reality.
And even setting aside the potential effects of that kind of move, the whole idea of a coordinated instant sell off isn't realistic. If NATO countries sold off enough bonds to spike the yield significantly, by it's nature it means they're selling them for a significantly lower value while also likely weakening the US dollar (which the bonds are denominated in). Are they going to cannabilize their own cash reserves, reduce their income when trading goods in USD, and likely spike their own bond yields over something like Greenland? I doubt it.
What I expect would (and probably will even if the US doesn't push the envelope further) is a slower sell off of US Treasuries by foreign governments. It has already been happening over the last two decades as the share of treasuries held by foreign entities has dropped by nearly half since 2008. This will probably increase in pace in the coming years. China has reduced its US Treasury holdings by half in the last decade and other countries might start to do the same at a faster pace.
PP has a huge trump problem with his party.
Recent Ekos poll had 50% of Cons approving of the job trump is doing compared to between 0%(Greens)to 6% (Bloc) for all other party voters.
Trump only gets a 38% approval or less in the US among all voters
There would be substantial overlap in the Venn diagram of CPC members, UCP members, Maple MAGA, and Alberta separatists. Near alignment, to be honest.
Carney is basically a Progressive Conservative, and the CPC/UCP have been taken over by their Reform and Wild Rose wings (and the separatist wing), respectively.
Echo the comments about it being an excellent speech by Carney. Impressive. Also the first time I've heard someone acknowledge that the existing "rules-based order" always mostly benefited some, even though it was always presented as benefiting all.
Quote:
We knew the story of the international rules-based order was partially false. That the strongest would exempt themselves when convenient. That trade rules were enforced asymmetrically. And that international law applied with varying rigour depending on the identity of the accused or the victim.
This fiction was useful, and American hegemony, in particular, helped provide public goods: open sea lanes, a stable financial system, collective security, and support for frameworks for resolving disputes.
So, we placed the sign in the window. We participated in the rituals. And largely avoided calling out the gaps between rhetoric and reality. This bargain no longer works. Let me be direct: we are in the midst of a rupture, not a transition. Over the past two decades, a series of crises in finance, health, energy, and geopolitics laid bare the risks of extreme global integration.
Carney had so many amazing one liners and quotables in that speech, each of them thought provoking.
"Nostalgia is not a strategy." Yet a number of Americans think that midterm will somehow make things right again (and that they actually believe midterms are a sure thing). We must move on in the new reality.
I can't think of a better speech than any other Canadian PM has ever given outside of perhaps Chretien's 1995 referendum speech.
Everything going on and everything he is talking about now are things people warned that could happen back in the 1980s when Mulroney was cozying up with Reagan. Granted, the integration with the U.S. did help make some people a lot of money and there were economic gains, this was always going to be the end result eventually. It was only a matter of time and honestly, I am surprised that it took this long.
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Echo the comments about it being an excellent speech by Carney. Impressive. Also the first time I've heard someone acknowledge that the existing "rules-based order" always mostly benefited some, even though it was always presented as benefiting all.
It was always this way. Always has been always will.
We have always been a vassal state. We have not been a Vassal state to an entity that does not care about projecting the concept of fairness. Historically there was a belief that common goals would lift all boats where as the current admin is zero sum and extractive.
Essentially the US is moving toward a colonial relationship with us as opposed to a mutually beneficial one.
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