Wondering if Canada will chart a path towards integrating with / joining the EU.
Doubt it. Not sure there would be much appetite for that on either side of the Atlantic. Need to have our thumbs in more pies... should really push hard on a deal with Mercosur next and shore up the bilateral relationship with Mexico.
I’ve heard rumblings of Europe and Canada dumping US Treasury bonds as a weapon. I don’t know anything about it but is a card that NATO holds?
To some extent, but I think people vastly overstate the potential impact of that. NATO countries hold maybe $1.5-2B $1.5-2T in US treasuries, so if they were mostly sold off in a short period of time, yields would spike. But the Federal Reserve bought more than that in 2020 to keep yields low during COVID, so they'd probably just do that gain. Obviously there'd be long-term impacts of loss of confidence in the US dollar and de-dollarization if the US started invading allies, but that would happen with or without everyone selling their bonds in concert so I don't see it as much of a threat.
You push Trump / America they really will invade. There is no winning a war against America. Current course and quiet economic unentanglement while telling Trump whatever he wants to hear is best move. Then just shift your country away as much as as possible diplomatically, economically, etc.
You can tell he’s already thinking about it. Invasion is likely on the table for him.
Completely disagree. Trump will invade regardless of whether you’re buying weapons platforms from the United States or not. If that is your idea of security you have done nothing but buy into the trash the Americans are selling and surrendering your sovereignty and autonomy. Build your own and benefit instead of buying and having the threat hanging over your head.
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To some extent, but I think people vastly overstate the potential impact of that. NATO countries hold maybe $1.5-2B in US treasuries, so if they were mostly sold off in a short period of time, yields would spike. But the Federal Reserve bought more than that in 2020 to keep yields low during COVID, so they'd probably just do that gain. Obviously there'd be long-term impacts of loss of confidence in the US dollar and de-dollarization if the US started invading allies, but that would happen with or without everyone selling their bonds in concert so I don't see it as much of a threat.
The UK holds $865B in US treasuries. Canada holds $475B. Belgium holds $466B. Luxembourg holds $421, France holds $376B, Ireland $340B, the Swiss hold $302B, and Norway $215B. That’s $3.46 TRILLION of US treasuries. That could collapse the United States economy over night.
The UK holds $865B in US treasuries. Canada holds $475B. Belgium holds $466B. Luxembourg holds $421, France holds $376B, Ireland $340B, the Swiss hold $302B, and Norway $215B. That’s $3.46 TRILLION of US treasuries. That could collapse the United States economy over night.
Well, Bessent (who clearly knows this) said earlier today that there is almost nothing Europe could do to retaliate that they should be concerned about. It's hilarious bluster.
Reasonably sure I read somewhere that the treasuries issue was quietly floated early in Trump's term by Carney, and was part of the reason why Trump backed off the 51st state nonsense.
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Well, Bessent (who clearly knows this) said earlier today that there is almost nothing Europe could do to retaliate that they should be concerned about. It's hilarious bluster.
You believe anything Bessent says? My advice? When the bank holding your mortgages calls those notes, you have big problems. That would end the US dollar as the feit currency. But believe Bessent. He’s been so reliable.
Reasonably sure I read somewhere that the treasuries issue was quietly floated early in Trump's term by Carney, and was part of the reason why Trump backed off the 51st state nonsense.
The bond market made them capitulate last spring after "obliteration day".
To some extent, but I think people vastly overstate the potential impact of that. NATO countries hold maybe $1.5-2B in US treasuries , so if they were mostly sold off in a short period of time, yields would spike. But the Federal Reserve bought more than that in 2020 to keep yields low during COVID, so they'd probably just do that gain. Obviously there'd be long-term impacts of loss of confidence in the US dollar and de-dollarization if the US started invading allies, but that would happen with or without everyone selling their bonds in concert so I don't see it as much of a threat.
No clue where you're getting that number - that's a miniscule number and makes no sense based on how widespread US Treasury bonds are.
Source below indicates $3.3 Trillion in US Treasury bonds owned by NATO countries.
The US can't invade Canada because of the shear cost of garrisoning a country this size, we would be easy to 'take over' but impossibly expensive to hold, they would need to have 2 or 300,000 troops permanantly patroling us, British Columbia alone would be a nightmare to hold, it is the size of the whole of the west coast of the US twice the size of Iraq or Afghanistan, even if there wasn't significant insurgent activity you still need troops everywhere to keep it that way, Kamloops, Chilliwack, PG Dawson Creek all need their own base with a few thousand troops plus infrastructure, it costs 20 billion a year and takes 70,000 police to maintain order in a country with the populations consent now, I'm not saying the cheeto headed #### gibbon isnt stupid enough to try but the US doesn't have the money of the numbers to actually take over Canada long term
If you go through Carneys speech it’s a recognition that major powers act in naked self interest. This was always true with how China leveraged its power and now it’s acknowledging that the US acts the same.
So not so much cutting ties but acknowledging that we have no leverage when negotiating terms against the US so need to ensure we limit the damage major powers can do to us.
So it’s an honest assessment of the state of the world and what has changed
Diversifying our trade away from the US is an example of 'cutting ties'. We obviously will never be able to break ties entirely but the speed in which Canada has been pivoting has been impressive. Geopolitics does not usually move as fast as what we've seen in the last year (which does raise concerns around the accelerationism theory).
Considering how big of a trade partner the US is and Canada's exports to the US has "only gone down a few points" but those percentage points represent a large amount of money. On the other side, our trade with the EU has more than doubled with a few member countries. Now we have the new deal with China, which I think is problematic in a number of ways but largely helps with the effort to shift trade away from the US.
In the end, if Canada is more concerned that the US will invade us instead of defending us then that is a huge example of ties being cut. I believe the word Carney used was "rupture".
You believe anything Bessent says? My advice? When the bank holding your mortgages calls those notes, you have big problems. That would end the US dollar as the feit currency. But believe Bessent. He’s been so reliable.
It is more than just one variable at play too. The Bonds are one thing but look at how quickly countries are looking for the exit when it comes to holding the US dollar.
BRICS is apparently on the rise to replace the US dollar for oil.
Nations are pivoting from holding US currency to buying more gold reserves.
Germany and Italy are demanding the US return their gold reserves.
Japan is also looking at potentially dumping their US debt if the EU does.
Greenland is starting to look more and more like a Baltic powder keg every day.
The US can't invade Canada because of the shear cost of garrisoning a country this size, we would be easy to 'take over' but impossibly expensive to hold, they would need to have 2 or 300,000 troops permanantly patroling us, British Columbia alone would be a nightmare to hold, it is the size of the whole of the west coast of the US twice the size of Iraq or Afghanistan, even if there wasn't significant insurgent activity you still need troops everywhere to keep it that way, Kamloops, Chilliwack, PG Dawson Creek all need their own base with a few thousand troops plus infrastructure, it costs 20 billion a year and takes 70,000 police to maintain order in a country with the populations consent now, I'm not saying the cheeto headed #### gibbon isnt stupid enough to try but the US doesn't have the money of the numbers to actually take over Canada long term
True and as mentioned, he also has to convince millions of Americans that the pain, blood and cost of this is worth it. So he has to provide a reason for doing this.
Since there is no reason to invade Canada, that’ll be a tough one for him.
The UK holds $865B in US treasuries. Canada holds $475B. Belgium holds $466B. Luxembourg holds $421, France holds $376B, Ireland $340B, the Swiss hold $302B, and Norway $215B. That’s $3.46 TRILLION of US treasuries. That could collapse the United States economy over night.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThePrince
No clue where you're getting that number - that's a miniscule number and makes no sense based on how widespread US Treasury bonds are.
Source below indicates $3.3 Trillion in US Treasury bonds owned by NATO countries.
Sorry, mistyped that number. I meant $1.5-$2T but accidentally typed billion.
And the $3.3T number you guys are talking about includes private investors. Given that the majority of foreign-held US bonds are held privately, NATO governments themselves hold less than half of that.
So $1.5T or so if sold off en masse would definitely spike yields temporarily, but any talk of economic collapse is wishful thinking. It only represents about 4-5% of outstanding US federal debt and it's less than the Federal Reserve bought up in the first 6 months of COVID.
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We'd probably be on our way to becoming the 51st state with PP in charge. He'd sell and justify it with 3 word slogans and self-congratulatory speeches.
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