Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[Travis Munroe]

Originally Posted by Red

And now the typically realtor friendly media is on it.

The Calgary housing market is cooling fast. New sales and listing data for the first half of the month have been released and the numbers aren’t pretty.

http://globalnews.ca/news/1781133/ho...ection-begins/

I wouldnt say the media is typically friendly either way. Stats are stats and they can't be argued with.

[troutman]

TD forecasts Calgary's 'oil-driven' housing market will plunge nearly 50% this year

http://calgaryherald.com/business/re..._lsa=f1f9-ca9d

[red sky]

Originally Posted by troutman

TD forecasts Calgary's 'oil-driven' housing market will plunge nearly 50% this year

http://calgaryherald.com/business/re..._lsa=f1f9-ca9d

Love the vagueness of that headline

[lorenavedon]

Originally Posted by red sky

Love the vagueness of that headline

yeah, sales not prices. What a troll baiting headline

[Red]

Corrected or was it mistyped originally?

http://calgaryherald.com/business/re..._lsa=4751-0e8d

Either way, looks like tough times ahead. Spoke to a realtor on Saturday, his biggest concern wasn't that listings shot up like this (and he was obviously alarmed by it), it was that 23% of the homes on the market were vacant. That's a lot of dough idling.

[troutman]

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil...-02-17-1103237

Oil prices rebounded during Tuesday’s trading to tally a gain of more than 9% over the past three trading sessions.

Analysts attributed the turnaround to a weaker U.S. dollar, violence in Ukraine and the Middle East and volatility tied to crude options expiration.

[Red]

Originally Posted by troutman

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil...-02-17-1103237

Oil prices rebounded during Tuesday’s trading to tally a gain of more than 9% over the past three trading sessions.

Analysts attributed the turnaround to a weaker U.S. dollar, violence in Ukraine and the Middle East and volatility tied to crude options expiration.

but the glut continues to grow. People sure like to gamble.

[Kavvy]

BNN article on a 10-20% drop coming to the Calgary Market. The source is the ' former chief economist at BMO, now at Dominion Lending Centres'

I find this article interesting because I thought the banks were bias in forecasting a rosy real restate prediction as they make money via mortgages.

One note- this article is me cherry picking a much more doom and gloom picture then most of the forecasts out there by reputation sources.

http://www.bnn.ca/News/2015/2/23/If-...0-percent.aspx

[MillerTime GFG]

Originally Posted by Kavvy

I find this article interesting because I thought the banks were bias in forecasting a rosy real restate prediction as they make money via mortgages.

Just for clarification, as you said in the previous paragraph, he's no longer with a bank. He's with Dominion Lending Centres, a mortgage brokerage. You know, the one with those annoying Don Cherry commercials.

[Calgary14]

Has anyone actually noticed a drop in house prices (yet)? From a quick glance on MLS it looked like prices haven't changed and there aren't very many bargains. Of course that could change if oil stays low for a long period of time

[mac_82]

Prices seem to be dropping only on stuff that's been sitting more than 3-4 weeks.

I had 10 places identified for showings with my realtor last weekend, and only got in to see 5. 5 had offers on them. Seems like things are picking up. I haven't had that issue since the summer.

[Red]

Originally Posted by Calgary14

Has anyone actually noticed a drop in house prices (yet)? From a quick glance on MLS it looked like prices haven't changed and there aren't very many bargains. Of course that could change if oil stays low for a long period of time

CREB stats show a 4% drop on average. I am very familiar with pricing in Lake Bonavista, Parkland and Maple Ridge. New listings are much more reasonable than last summer. Newly reno-ed flips are getting reduced 50K+ and still sit.
Third of these homes are vacant. Prices have nowhere to go but down at this point.

[MillerTime GFG]

It also depends on how motivated the seller is. List prices are remaining high, but I'm seeing some concessions made when negotiating.

There's some stubbornness on both ends...sellers holding onto their values, and buyers looking to lowball based on the impending drop in prices.

[sa226]

^^^^^^
Exactly. I think sellers may be willing to hold out until the spring/summer to see who calls who's bluff.

[rd_aaron]

I've noticed a few places on MLS modestly reducing prices. Mostly noticing the huge supply. Every time I look in the neighborhoods/price range I'm interested in, I see the same places I saw a month or two ago and then 2 or 3 new houses. Also noticed a few houses in my neighborhood that have been for sale since early December.

[Red]

Yes there is some time before sellers panic, but things are already trending down. And those empty 650K homes aren't just gonna sit forever, these flippers have bills to pay.

[polak]

Sellers still want to sell for record prices. Ridiculous.

[Bill Bumface]

I bought a house in 2009. It was the same thing. Not many new listings as people were waiting for a miraculous recovery. 80% of stuff was listed at a price that was only reasonable a year prior and just sitting on the market. It can be a frustrating time to be looking.

[Red]

Game of chicken. But once the movement starts it's a race to the bottom.

[Kavvy]

Originally Posted by MillerTime GFG

Just for clarification, as you said in the previous paragraph, he's no longer with a bank. He's with Dominion Lending Centres, a mortgage brokerage. You know, the one with those annoying Don Cherry commercials.

Touche, typo on my part - but wouldn't a broker have very similar interests as a bank regarding painting a rosy real estate picture?

The quote just caught me by surprise coming from that type of source. However, maybe that industry isn't as bias as I had suspected.