Alberta Election Thread - Election Day April 16 2019

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by Robbob

Yeah I agree they will announce the winner tonight. Out of the 200k votes that will be counted, that is 200k that account for a bunch of riding across Alberta. Unless a race is close (in the hundreds), I don't expect a bunch of results flip after they are counted.

Agreed. Obviously if the amount of Vote Anywhere ballots is less than the margin of victory in any riding then the issue is pretty much settled tonight. If it is more then theoretically the results hinge on those votes but unless the breakdown is drastically different than the riding votes in the regular vote it probably would not be enough to swing things either. The more outstanding votes there are the better the chance there may not be a decision on any particular riding tonight.

Also interesting that Calgary appears to have way more Vote Anywhere ballots than Edmonton or anywhere else for that matter.

Calgary average per riding: 4253
Edmonton average per riding: 2453
Rest of Alberta average: 1896

I would expect rural to be much lower than the urban ridings but am surprised to see such a difference between the two major cities.

[transplant99]

It goes like this: The NDP has long maintained that patience, collaboration, aggressive climate policies and negotiation with the rest of Canada is key to getting a pipeline built. Kenney’s United Conservative Party believes, after watching export-pipeline projects repeatedly foiled over the past four years, that these things don’t work, and that tougher measures are required, such as retaliating against B.C.’s pipeline obstructionism by cutting off energy exports and cancelling climate policies that promised to buy Alberta “social licence,” but never did. Ergo, says the NDP, Kenney is “reckless” and won’t get pipelines built, while the NDP is responsible and will get pipelines built. All without evidence that a pipeline will ever get built.

That hollow argument may be all Notley has to defend her pipeline legacy, which has so far produced only embarrassment for her and anguish for the province, with the oil-export bottleneck costing a fortune in revenue and jobs (Notley even had to recently force companies to curtail production to ease the glut). But even if she somehow manages to hang on to power after Tuesday, Albertans are far more jaded than they were when she took charge in 2015. Notley tried selling in Alberta a long-lost concept — a faith that Ottawa and the rest of the country would play fairly, in the name of co-operation and unity, with just a little bit of give and take from everyone. That misplaced faith was betrayed repeatedly. It won’t soon surface again.

Surely their reputation these days for brutal political calculations suggests that Liberal election priorities must come before Alberta. Just as Quebec’s pipeline opposition came before Alberta. Just as a handful of First Nations come before Alberta. Just as the Liberals’ Bill C-69 social-climate-justice campaign must come before Alberta.

Rachel Notley’s rookie NDP government was the embodiment of naïve hope over experience, the belief that if Alberta just sacrificed enough, its concerns would come to count as much as those of others’. She even persuaded some people here to believe it, for a while. That she and they today feel more betrayed than ever, is in large part her fault.

https://business.financialpost.com/o...-made-possible

[metallicat]

I'm 36. I hope I don't have to live through another 40 years of conservative rule at this point.

[powderjunkie]

If the NEB had considered the orcas and effectively addressed concerns raised during consultation, what reasons are there to believe that there wouldn't be shovels in the ground? (genuinely asking)

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

If the NEB had considered the orcas and effectively addressed concerns raised during consultation, what reasons are there to believe that there wouldn't be shovels in the ground? (genuinely asking)

I'm also failing to see how punishing BC is going to get the FCA to overturn their ruling.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

If the NEB had considered the orcas and effectively addressed concerns raised during consultation, what reasons are there to believe that there wouldn't be shovels in the ground? (genuinely asking)

That was this round of issues. Next is “still no meaningful consultations” and whatever other animal they can find that might be affected.

[transplant99]

So 30 FN bands want TMX built...and 6 dont.

Guess which ones will get heard the most?

[Dion]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

My biggest concern with this election is what will Dion do with all his spare time. When Notley loses and people stop producing anti-NDP memes, what then?

Thoughts and prayers Dion.

Not worry my friend.....

Golf season has started and i'll be playing up to 4-5 times a week

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by rubecube

I'm also failing to see how punishing BC is going to get the FCA to overturn their ruling.

It won't, it's a separate front in the obstruction war. Punishing BC would be addressing their efforts to put limits on the export of bitumen, effectively neutering TMX because that's it's primary purpose. Maybe also the refusal by some provincial and municipal offices to allow permits but I'm not sure how directly connected those are, the primary fight is over the Horgan government's repeated unconstitutional attempts to cut off the export of bitumen.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by transplant99

So 30 FN bands want TMX built...and 6 dont.

Guess which ones will get heard the most?

Okay, but you realize the reasons why constitutionally guaranteed consultation over multiple areas of unceded, disputed territory can't just be treated as a simple majority decision, right?

[Azure]

Originally Posted by transplant99

https://business.financialpost.com/o...-made-possible

I agree completely.

But I think there is a much bigger problem in our country than just Alberta versus the Feds, Quebec getting all the perks, etc.

We have major inter provincial issues that cost our economy hundreds of billions of dollars per year. The lack of pipelines is only a part of that, albeit a very big part.

For some reason the narrative is not being framed in such a way where it is Canada first, but instead it is always some stupid provincial spat or moronic Federal government that ruins it for everyone else.

Personally I am tired of it. If the Feds don't want to do their job and make sure that pipelines that should be built ARE built, and even the multitude of trade restrictions dragging our country down are lifted and alleviated, I am all for cutting trade off and going nuclear on everything. This country needs a bloody wake up call. How we even got to this point is beyond me.

[Otto-matic]

Pulling for Rachel tonight. Seems like majority of my community is too.

[rubecube]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

It won't, it's a separate front in the obstruction war. Punishing BC would be addressing their efforts to put limits on the export of bitumen, effectively neutering TMX because that's it's primary purpose. Maybe also the refusal by some provincial and municipal offices to allow permits but I'm not sure how directly connected those are, the primary fight is over the Horgan government's repeated unconstitutional attempts to cut off the export of bitumen.

Well there's no way that ban doesn't get slapped down by the courts, IMO.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Well there's no way that ban doesn't get slapped down by the courts, IMO.

How long will that take?

I would personally go nuclear on everything. Use everyone resource available to completely disrupt and blow up the BC economy.

Maybe then people in this country will catch on to how bloody stupid everything is being run and we'll be able to sit down and fix our real problems.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Okay, but you realize the reasons why constitutionally guaranteed consultation over multiple areas of unceded, disputed territory can't just be treated as a simple majority decision, right?

Which makes it so utterly asinine, particularly when we now know that a number of those in opposition are being paid by foreign interest groups to....oppose it!

We are the single stupidest country on the face of this planet, and it could easily be entirely different if there was a federal government that had real "Canadian interest" as their true agenda.

Its why I welcome all the constitutional challenges the UCP feels it can muster and hope to make inroads with. We NEED a constitutional crisis to determine what we are going to be/want moving forward, because this stuff we have seen the last 20 years? Not working. Quebec started it all...time for the rest to finish it.

We are not a country at all IMO. Not when some areas are treated entirely different than others by the same governing body.

[OMG!WTF!]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Well there's no way that ban doesn't get slapped down by the courts, IMO.

It would for sure. But Alberta can still alter the amount of refined product that goes down the existing pipeline. We could cause a major supply squeeze and dramatic price increases while complying with neb regulations.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Weitz

That was this round of issues. Next is “still no meaningful consultations” and whatever other animal they can find that might be affected.

In every round to come, the court asks "why is this only coming up now?" - if there isn't a really good answer to that question (such as it relates to the most recent work), it becomes a steeper hill to achieve any intervention.

Do we have any reason to believe the courts are unreasonable? They have already ruled in favour of the pipeline and against the City of Burnaby repeatedly.

So much outrage in so many directions, yet seemingly none in the direction of NEB or project managers.

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by rubecube

Well there's no way that ban doesn't get slapped down by the courts, IMO.

Maybe. I think there was already a court ruling where some court body said it was valid but that's not to say a higher court doesn't disagree. There's an avenue where Alberta can argue it's protecting its self interest by trying to export more down the tube and increase the ratio of raw bitumen for export vs refined product for domestic use. That's not the entire truth obviously but if everyone else is going to enact disingenuous legislation we might as well also.

The good news for you and every other BCer is that Weaver and Horgan are 100% in control of the situation.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by transplant99

Which makes it so utterly asinine, particularly when we now know that a number of those in opposition are being paid by foreign interest groups to....oppose it!

Do you actually believe that is the only reason they are opposing it?

Can you remind me what the specific issues are for each of the six? If not, how are you so sure of their motivations?

[Kerplunk]

Originally Posted by metallicat

I'm 36. I hope I don't have to live through another 40 years of conservative rule at this point.

I'm 38. If I'm lucky I'll never have to live through another 4 years of NDP rule again.