Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[puffnstuff]

https://www.nationalobserver.com/202...carney-madness

Its an interesting take on what Carney did or didnt do.

[Whynotnow]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

Obviously I have no idea as to whether it is feasible or not but I am not suggesting that the pipeline should or could be built cheaper or easier if we just stuck it all in the same trench or cutting, I mean dig a second line next to the first, it has to be easier to persuade people who are already living with a pipeline in their back yard 'here's a brown bag full of money, we want to put in a second or third pipeline, no extra risk and a bag full of extra money!!'

As to the route in the lower mainland that is the easiest part, the original pipe already runs through Surrey, just run it to Delta along 60th Ave or so from Sumas, it's almost all agricultural land so far less issues, like I said not suggesting it would be cheaper, my guess is it would cost the same, but a vast terminal on the Georgia Straight in the lower mainland makes more environmental sense, is closer to the customers and is likely an easier sell, they could close Burnaby down as part of the deal

I will reiterate that I see no feasible way to fit another pipeline into the existing right of way through the mountains. Big inch oil pipelines take up a lot of room to build and they moved a lot of earth the last time and it gets exponentially worse if not technically impossible.

I have also done some desktop work from Burnaby to Robert’s bank feasibility and can assure nothing about that is the easiest part. The existing right of row is highly encroached upon and you can’t just put another pipeline there, just like through the mountains.

It honestly doesn’t matter if it’s closer to the customer by a few hundred kilometres once oil is on a ship that distance is irrelevant.

The right option is Prince Rupert tor Kitimat, no reason not to. I still think it never gets built anyways.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by curves2000

I have a feeling that Alberta Investment Management Co (AIMCO) will be a big time investor in whatever potential pipeline/ carbon capture projects are going to be built.

There was some changes recently to AIMCO regarding previous lawsuits (trading losses) but I suspect more changes may be coming to that file soon.

Ok, I'll play. Let's say that this pipeline gets built, and it's 2035. Aimco owns, say, 20% (I'm just making that percentage up, of course, but there will be some First Nations ownership, as well as private ownership, which will own the lion's share).

What's the issue with having a pension fund own a piece of a massive infrastructure project? The tolls will make that worthwhile, and this is the exact kind of income/investment that pensions want. Is this just based on the idea that the government is meddling?

[Whynotnow]

Originally Posted by Slava

Ok, I'll play. Let's say that this pipeline gets built, and it's 2035. Aimco owns, say, 20% (I'm just making that percentage up, of course, but there will be some First Nations ownership, as well as private ownership, which will own the lion's share).

What's the issue with having a pension fund own a piece of a massive infrastructure project? The tolls will make that worthwhile, and this is the exact kind of income/investment that pensions want. Is this just based on the idea that the government is meddling?

Generally nothing and it’s why pensions are already heavily invested in pipelines. They act like an annuity with steady income and good distributions which is what they look for. If this ever gets built it will be because there are long term take or pay contracts for multiple decades. Unless the government builds it on spec and takes all the market risk which would be……interesting.

[Frequitude]

Originally Posted by Leeman4Gilmour

My tinfoil hat theory is that Ghawar is going to decline faster than the Saudi's forecast. American's going hard after Venezuela, now Carney signing an agreement for anothr pipeline. All reactionary to a future supply issue. I got more tinfoil if you want a matching hat.

The Permian is the big one for me. The US did a hell of a job sucking that thing dry. Its decline curves are insane (40%/yr+ I think) and the next wells all have pretty high WTI breakevens ($70-80 or more). That's who we want Alberta growth to supplant.

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

The one thing I don't really get is why it makes more sense to go to Prince Rupert rather than doubling or trebling up to Vancouver, the ships are all having to sail south past Vancouver anyway to get to the Asian markets, I dont see any point trying to open up a new route legally

Prince Rupert is the deepest port on the west coast of North America so it can take the biggest ships. It is also 1-2 day shorter sailing to China which is big $ on a per barrel basis.

[troutman]

My friend was a Judge in PR for a couple of years, paid his dues and got out asap.

[#-3]

Originally Posted by puffnstuff

https://www.nationalobserver.com/202...carney-madness

Its an interesting take on what Carney did or didnt do.

I think this is overly rosey towards Carney, but I suspect there is some truth to this, it just comes down to picking your battles.

Basically if Alberta wants to sink money into doomed projects, and fight with BC instead of Ottawa, Carney said "No problem", let me get out of your way and we'll revisit in 3 years when we actually get to campaign season.

if you can dodge Alberta extending the fight towards the industrial carbon tax too, even better.

[getbak]

https://bsky.app/profile/markusoff.b.../3m6pwmfvids25

Originally Posted by Jason Markusoff ‪@markusoff.bsky.social‬

Danielle Smith: "I hope people today feel a lot more confident that Canada works than they did a couple of days ago."
UCP convention crowd: LOUD BOOS

[Slava]

Originally Posted by getbak

https://bsky.app/profile/markusoff.b.../3m6pwmfvids25

Honestly, that party is so disconnected from this province. It’s astounding that they’re in government, and I’m astonished that they poll as well as they do.

I know I’m about to be told that they’re conservative, so of course they have a natural right to hold government. But, I just can’t believe that we have so many people who would overlook things like this, and all their abhorrent actions over the past number of weeks and put them back into office.

Oh, and I hope there’s video of that booing. If I was the NDP, I’d be getting the ad ready immediately.

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by Slava

Honestly, that party is so disconnected from this province. It’s astounding that they’re in government, and I’m astonished that they poll as well as they do.

I know I’m about to be told that they’re conservative, so of course they have a natural right to hold government. But, I just can’t believe that we have so many people who would overlook things like this, and all their abhorrent actions over the past number of weeks and put them back into office.

Oh, and I hope there’s video of that booing. If I was the NDP, I’d be getting the ad ready immediately.

It's not that Alberta voters overlook things, they just don't look period. They don't pay any attention to provincial politics, they are completely ignorant to everything the UCP has done, but come election time they just look for the person with the blue C next to their name and dutifully put in their checkmark. And if you ask them why, they'll probably mumble something about the economy or how bad the NDP is

[curves2000]

Originally Posted by Slava

Ok, I'll play. Let's say that this pipeline gets built, and it's 2035. Aimco owns, say, 20% (I'm just making that percentage up, of course, but there will be some First Nations ownership, as well as private ownership, which will own the lion's share).

What's the issue with having a pension fund own a piece of a massive infrastructure project? The tolls will make that worthwhile, and this is the exact kind of income/investment that pensions want. Is this just based on the idea that the government is meddling?

I actually don't have any issue with AIMCO being an investor at all, better overall the more local, domestic support we have the better. Some people are more pessimistic that it will be built but it's not like nobody needs oil or that there is some glut of available pipeline capacity for decades.

I just hope that the government doesn't throw taxpayer money or take unnecessary risk with this. We have burned enough money with KXL, oil by rail contracts and a lot more.

Canada needs to wake up and grow some business brains and these projects, in conjunction with the federal/AB partnership, is a strong 1st step. Who knows how much the previous policies cost Canada total.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Slava

Honestly, that party is so disconnected from this province. It’s astounding that they’re in government, and I’m astonished that they poll as well as they do.

I know I’m about to be told that they’re conservative, so of course they have a natural right to hold government. But, I just can’t believe that we have so many people who would overlook things like this, and all their abhorrent actions over the past number of weeks and put them back into office.

Oh, and I hope there’s video of that booing. If I was the NDP, I’d be getting the ad ready immediately.

Their core supporters are people who will never be happy. It’s not even economic at this point, it’s culture - a culture of grievance and discontent. There isn’t anything Carney or any federal government could do to make them happy. Grousing about Ottawa, the feds, and easterners is their whole political identity, and always will be. All the UCP has to do to keep them onside is keep blaming everything on Ottawa.

[puffnstuff]

There are still guys driving around in 80K pick ups with 250 dollars worth of stickers on the rear tail gate and rear window complaining about their freedom of speech and federal government overreach. That is a UCP voter all day every day.

Sidenote, if you point out under an actual govt was stifling your freedom you wouldnt be able to drive around with those stickers plastered all over it they get big mad and swear at you. And when you laugh at them doing that, they have to reach for their blood pressure pills.

[getbak]

Video of the boos: https://bsky.app/profile/sarobertson.../3m6pvzmcykz2j

If they want to leave Canada so badly, I'll gladly rent a truck and pile as many of them as possible into the back and drive them Coutts.