Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

The main thing is that we are getting better governance with Carney / borrowing of CPC policies than we were with Trudeau / Singh. That was a disastrous 10 years.

Pretty sure the liberals had a majority for the first 4 years of that timeframe.

Singh got a few decent things achieved using his leverage over the liberals but overall yeah that wasn’t a great time. Kinda why people were trying to get the CPC to moderate their positions at the time to make them more electable or at least give them an opportunity to pass legislation with the Bloc and NDP’s support but instead the CPC opted to keep doubling down and let the liberals beat them to the punch.

[Johnny Makarov]

Truth hurts. Even if Trudeau didn't step down he would have beat Pierre Polyester last election. The dweeb is THAT useless!

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

Originally Posted by Slava

That sounds like a lot of wishful thinking. The other consideration is that the Liberals have already taken out the NDP, and now they're taking away the progressive CPC voters. I'm not sure where that leaves an opening for the rejuvenated NDP) to make in roads.

There's always an opening, no one can reasonably cover the entire landscape. The LPC, whether in their traditional left-centre incarnation or this new version, are not really a populist party, and there is therefore an opening on either side of them that can gain some steam if the people making the case do it right. At the moment, though, both of the wings that have their opening are utterly disfunctional and fractured, in part because they just aren't well organized to begin with and in part because they have no one credible to get behind.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Are there any recent polls showing how CPC voters from the last election would vote now? Has Carney turned more of them over? Or are they still thinking while Carney is doing great and harmonious province binding work, they still think PP would be a better leader for Canada?

The current polling aggregate is essentially identical to what it was the day before the election, so it's pretty safe to say that almost nothing has changed in terms of vote intentions.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

Truth hurts. Even if Trudeau didn't step down he would have beat Pierre Polyester last election. The dweeb is THAT useless!

I don’t think very highly of PP but even I doubt he would have lost if Trudeau was still leader of the liberal party going into the election.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Weren’t you calling people delusional and all sorts of other names and accusing them of pushing a made up narrative a year ago when those people accurately predicted a Trudeau resignation and Carney takeover would severely hurt the Cons with an outside chance of putting a Liberal minority back on the table?

I wouldn’t want to play the “some people said” game if I were you lol.

Yes? I am very well aware of what I said. I will even quote it for you. I have absolutely no problem standing by it and conceding I was wrong on Carney not being able to win this election (regardless of circumstances and a black swan type event), considering I switched 'sides' by winning me over (or rather the better term is he best represented my views, quite the shocker).

Originally Posted by Firebot

LOL the delusion and desperation is insane...

The "Trudeau resigning will make Poilievre lose sleep" narrative continuously projected by a few delusional posters was quite the fantasy. Now it's turned to "Carney will make Poilievre lose sleep" as the first narrative collapsed. It turns out Canadian anger was not reserved to just Trudeau (or it being a messaging issue)

Carney is the right leader at the wrong time. In an alternate time frame, I would likely vote for him.

I even said back then I would vote for him at the right time and he is the right leader (even before Trump shenanigans, before Carney put his intent to lead and did a complete 180 on many Trudeau policies, and before Poilievre failed to pivot versus Trump). No I definitely did not believe he could win at the time for good reason. He certainly proved me wrong though. And I honestly thought Poilievre would be a lot smarter with the Trump situation.

If you would have said that you foresaw Carney shifting Liberals significantly further right the way he has compared to where we were with Trudeau-Singh, and you predicted there would be a threat to our national sovereignty impacting elections you could pat yourself on the back for a completely accurate prediction.

Quite frankly, Carney is looking more PC conservative than many conservatives today. Conservative MPs are flocking over to the Liberals preferring their leader and policies, NDP is flailing around at 6-7% as a result of their failed policies and priorities. So the narrative that it's just NDP supporters wanting to practice ABC, even months down the line after election, doesn't pass the smell test, as a number of NDP voters also switched to CPC.

Gloating about the current situation, when most posters are quite happy with the current situation is an odd position, that is all. A number of Carney's implemented policies are straight out of the CPC playbook, including a few that was fearmongered here.

Good old radical central. The hated term by folks on the left who want to pretend that it doesn't exist or that there is no such a thing as socially liberal and fiscally conservative. We are seeing it right now but yet we are going to pretend that policies are the same today as they were under Trudeau-Singh and gloat as if there hasn't been changes.

But hey gloat away about being 'right' while I'm here ecstatic that folks like Gillebault are ragequitting, the federal NDP has collapsed and Trudeau era policies are getting eliminated. It's quite literally what I wished would happen last year, just not the way I envisioned it.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

Pretty sure the liberals had a majority for the first 4 years of that timeframe.

Singh got a few decent things achieved using his leverage over the liberals but overall yeah that wasn’t a great time. Kinda why people were trying to get the CPC to moderate their positions at the time to make them more electable or at least give them an opportunity to pass legislation with the Bloc and NDP’s support but instead the CPC opted to keep doubling down and let the liberals beat them to the punch.

This is the thing that kills me about Trudeau haters and conservative supporters. None of them are self-aware enough to realize that it is their fault that Trudeau was in power for 10 years.

If the CPC hadn't merged with the Reform party, then the conservatives would still be a viable governing party. The internal party politics would be less extreme and require a less extreme leader.

Then, if the CPC hadn't voted in bad leaders at every opportunity (Sheer, O'Toole, PP), they probably would have won elections over Trudeau.

• The 2017 race was a collection of bad choices but if a reasonable leader had been the head of the party instead of Sheer then the CPC could have won that election in the face of all of the scandals around the liberal party and Trudeau at that time.
• Had MacKay had won in 2020 instead of O'Toole then he probably could have maintained a more moderate approach that did not pander to the extreme elements of the party that O'Toole said "yes" to.
• If Charest won in 2022 then the CPC likely would have come through as more moderate and won the next election instead of fumbling it to Carney in the face of Canada seeing the results of voting for authoritarians in the US.

But as a fundamental failure, most conservatives cannot bring themselves to own their choices creating those results and have to find ways to blame everyone else (or figure out how to rig the system even harder).

When PP gets replaced they will probably look to the most MAGA option and continue their downward spiral into rage and blame.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

I don’t think very highly of PP but even I doubt he would have lost if Trudeau was still leader of the liberal party going into the election.

It's a combination of factors. Trudeau was way too much of a narcissist to ever back off or pivot on his own policies and required a full blown mutiny to finally get some humility and resign. In a world that he doesn't quit and all the Trump shenanigans happen, Trudeau would be seen as the person who could best handle Trump over Poilievre (sadly that's what Poilievre has created for himself). It would certainly be a LOT closer than the December or January polls were indicating once the 51st state and tariff threats blossomed, but I doubt a spring election occurs. His own caucus rebelled against him and there was really no salvaging it.

[Firebot]

Beaverton calling it like it is.

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2025/12...rvative-party/

Progressive Conservative joins Progressive Conservative party

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

I don’t think very highly of PP but even I doubt he would have lost if Trudeau was still leader of the liberal party going into the election.

People would have woken up when they realized they would be voting for Temu-Trump in Pierre Polyester.

but holy eff balls. Was I ever ecstatic to watch Carney on the Daily Show where he was dropping hints before he announced!

I would have 10000% voted for Carney if he was the leader of the Cons.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Firebot

But hey gloat away about being 'right' while I'm here ecstatic that folks like Gillebault are ragequitting, the federal NDP has collapsed and Trudeau era policies are getting eliminated. It's quite literally what I wished would happen last year, just not the way I envisioned it.

I didn’t read a “thank you” in there but no matter.

You’re welcome.

Glad to have helped you see the light in your own roundabout way. Hopefully you might pause and reconsider next time you feel a bit too confident in your own interpretation of the political landscape. All we can do is learn and grow, and I’m happy to help.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by opendoor

Maybe, but the NDP were polling ~20% before Trudeau stepped down and then almost immediately dropped into irrelevancy once Carney came on board and looked like he had a chance of beating the Conservatives.

To me, it looks like it has for much of the last 50 years (other than 2015); right of center parties usually get about 35-40% of the vote, the Liberals + NDP get about 50%, and the Bloc and Green get the rest. When the Liberals are weak, the NDP/Green/Bloc are stronger, and then the opposite happens when the Liberals have some strength.

The Conservatives' current strong support is largely a result of shoring up the extreme wing of their party by decimating the PPC, which is why they haven't really moderated. They know that catering to extremists isn't a deal breaker for their moderate supporters, so they do it to maintain their base. But the corollary of that is that people who fear right-wing extremism in the government shifted from the NDP and Greens to the Liberals once it looked like they had a chance to win.

Given all that, the idea that Carney is going to bring over moderate Conservatives in any real numbers doesn't seem particularly likely given historical voting patterns. If the Liberals do succeed going forward, it'll largely be on the back of the NDP/Bloc/Greens bleeding votes to them and them making marginal gains in suburban ridings to improve their vote efficiency.

What would be interesting is if the result of this Liberal shift right becomes a permanent take over of the PC vote. Under Carney that definitely looks like their path forward to try and own that center-right vote that used to be Harper's base and essentially corner the CPC into the old Reform party space.

The new spectrum would then become:

• Right Wing: Liberals (center right), CPC (far right), PPC (extreme right)
• Left Wing: NDP (center to far left), Greens (extreme left)
• Note: The Bloc does not really fit on the spectrum as they are really a single issue party, with the issue being Quebec

At that point the NDP and Green vote would peel off from the Liberals. Bloc votes would constantly be up for sale for any party willing to do good by Quebec, which is how Quebec continues to outplay Alberta in the game of Federal politics.

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

The NDP is just never going to be in the center. The LPC will always have some of the center left - the educated white collar left, basically. Especially the ones who own real property (at least as long as they don't do anything to undermine the principal residence exemption).

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Wolven

What would be interesting is if the result of this Liberal shift right becomes a permanent take over of the PC vote. Under Carney that definitely looks like their path forward to try and own that center-right vote that used to be Harper's base and essentially corner the CPC into the old Reform party space.

The new spectrum would then become:

• Right Wing: Liberals (center right), CPC (far right), PPC (extreme right)
• Left Wing: NDP (center to far left), Greens (extreme left)
• Note: The Bloc does not really fit on the spectrum as they are really a single issue party, with the issue being Quebec

At that point the NDP and Green vote would peel off from the Liberals. Bloc votes would constantly be up for sale for any party willing to do good by Quebec, which is how Quebec continues to outplay Alberta in the game of Federal politics.

What about centre left?
It's interesting how you want to put the whole "left" into the NDP camp

[Mr.Coffee]

There’s a lot of victory laps being had here for Carney and it is all looking kind of promising but there is still a long way to go. Proof will be in the pudding, we’ll see. He’s going to face the same non-sensical opposition Trudeau did so it’ll be interesting to see how he handles it.

I kind of think it’s all insurmountable regardless of who’s in power, based on how the country currently operates.

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Winsor_Pilates

What about centre left?
It's interesting how you want to put the whole "left" into the NDP camp

I am just framing the shift differently. The person I was replying to was saying that even as the Liberals shift to being more of a right wing party that they would continue to draw votes from the left (even the greens).

That is not typically how these things play out. Progressive voters rallied behind the Liberals because PP and the Conservatives are dangerous and needed to be stopped from forming government. It is illogical to think that a temporary problem will create a permanent allegiance.

Once voters start to identify the Liberals as essentially being the "progressive conservatives" of old, or a center-right party, then Liberals would start taking votes from the conservative-to-moderate voters. Just look at this message board, conservative voters are now celebrating Carney's Liberals. When the Liberals take enough votes and/or MPs away from the Conservatives the threat will be over and progressive voters will shift away from the Liberals.

To put it simply: The further right the Liberals shift and the more right-wing their policies go, they will take over more of the CPC base but let go of votes from the NDP/Green.

[The Yen Man]

I voted for the Liberals for the first time because I see Carney as essentially a progressive conservative. The far right has pretty much swallowed the old PC party, and are now more fringe than ever. I just could not hold my nose and vote for a party ran by people like Smith and Pollievre.

I've been pretty satisfied so far with Carney's work. I was always going to give him some time to clean up Trudeau's mess and stickhandle Agent Orange from the south. I've been pleasantly surprised so far on how much progress he's made already.

I'm hoping a few more PC minded cons cross the floor, and cons hopefully realizing catering to the loonie right fringe will always just get you official opposition status at best in this country. As long as Milhouse is still in charge however, I doubt they will learn any lessons from this.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Beaverton calling it like it is.

https://www.thebeaverton.com/2025/12...rvative-party/

It’s really showing everyone who the true kool-aid drinkers are and who actually want Canadians to succeed.

[Looch City]

Listening to 770 this morning again because I just love to listen to bat#### crazy takes and all the morning show hosts were saying, they still 110% believe PP will pass the leadership review and continue to be CPC leader.

How ####ing dumb are Conservatives?

If they do actually keep him on, these people are perhaps dumber than the MAGA folk down south.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Looch City

Listening to 770 this morning again because I just love to listen to bat#### crazy takes and all the morning show hosts were saying, they still 110% believe PP will pass the leadership review and continue to be CPC leader.

How ####ing dumb are Conservatives?

If they do actually keep him on, these people are perhaps dumber than the MAGA folk down south.

.... PP should lead the Reform Party for the next 20 years! at least that's what the Libs are hoping for.