Canadian Federal Politics Thread v5

[Hemi-Cuda]

Originally Posted by opendoor

The funny thing is, polling would suggest that you're dead wrong. What you're saying might be true for you, but it doesn't seem to hold true for many other people.

Carney is basically giving moderate Conservatives everything they could hope for in a government: fiscal conservatism without falling into culture war crap. So if what you're saying is correct, I would expect to see movement towards the Liberals from the Conservatives as the more moderate Conservatives realize that Carney's Liberals are far more in line with their beliefs than Poilievre's Conservatives are.

But that hasn't happened at all. Conservative support is basically the same as it was in the election and the Liberals are only leading because traditional NDP voters have shifted to them, likely out of distaste for a potential Conservative government.

You can't change the cult of brain-rot overnight, conservative voters have been conditioned to think that liberals=evil for decades now. But they're a minority, and the cons can't win with their base alone. Carney appears to be the most sensible PM we've had since at least Martin, and liberals/moderates finally have someone they can support enthusiastically, unlike with Trudeau. Unless the cons can get rid of PP and somehow find someone that has an actual personality, I don't think they have a hope in hell in the next election

[Doctorfever]

Perhaps traditional NDP voters have shifted to the Liberals out of distaste for the NDP?

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

Perhaps traditional NDP voters have shifted to the Liberals out of distaste for the NDP?

Perhaps it is both.

At the end of the day many NDP voters shifted to the Liberals, effectively handing them the win. And instead of the myth of “radical centrists” getting everything they want from the Carney-led Liberals, the CPC actually grew in voter share as well, but were unable to overcome the Liberal party’s cannibalization of the NDP.

Self-proclaimed radical centrists who are loving the Carney-led Liberals should be thanking NDP supporters for saving them from themselves, as now we all get to watch the Cons die a slow death as those self-proclaimed PP supporting “centrists” slowly see the light. Which would not have been possible, if not for former NDP voters saving them from themselves.

I know many were quite confident this is how it would play out a year ago, despite PP supporters being in firm denial. It’s OK that they’re trying to rewrite their own history now, nobody wants to be someone who was gloating about a win only to have it be snatched from them. It’s good those people are waking up and finally accepting that those people they once called “delusional” were so, so right.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

Perhaps traditional NDP voters have shifted to the Liberals out of distaste for the NDP?

Maybe, but the NDP were polling ~20% before Trudeau stepped down and then almost immediately dropped into irrelevancy once Carney came on board and looked like he had a chance of beating the Conservatives.

To me, it looks like it has for much of the last 50 years (other than 2015); right of center parties usually get about 35-40% of the vote, the Liberals + NDP get about 50%, and the Bloc and Green get the rest. When the Liberals are weak, the NDP/Green/Bloc are stronger, and then the opposite happens when the Liberals have some strength.

The Conservatives' current strong support is largely a result of shoring up the extreme wing of their party by decimating the PPC, which is why they haven't really moderated. They know that catering to extremists isn't a deal breaker for their moderate supporters, so they do it to maintain their base. But the corollary of that is that people who fear right-wing extremism in the government shifted from the NDP and Greens to the Liberals once it looked like they had a chance to win.

Given all that, the idea that Carney is going to bring over moderate Conservatives in any real numbers doesn't seem particularly likely given historical voting patterns. If the Liberals do succeed going forward, it'll largely be on the back of the NDP/Bloc/Greens bleeding votes to them and them making marginal gains in suburban ridings to improve their vote efficiency.

[Doctorfever]

The main thing is that we are getting better governance with Carney / borrowing of CPC policies than we were with Trudeau / Singh. That was a disastrous 10 years.

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

This liberal government is definitely better than the last 10 years of Trudeau / NDP.

Steps in the right direction for sure!!

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

The main thing is that we are getting better governance with Carney / borrowing of CPC policies than we were with Trudeau / Singh. That was a disastrous 10 years.

Is there an echo in here?

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

I'd say they're more approaching unicorn status, being fiscal conservatives and social liberals. Virtually everyone I've talked to over the last 20 years have said that's the platform they'd want from any federal government, so if Carney can follow through on it he might be looking at some record approval levels. If he can somehow get rid of that stupid gun buyback money pit he'll be nearly untouchable

Carney is infinitely better than PP. People voted for the Liberals in the last election because the Conservatives are a dangerous party in their current iteration. However, it is important to remain critical of your government and not start falling into traps like calling them a "unicorn" or apply labels that have very little meaning and are not really applicable in how one would understand the label.

I would challenge anyone to define "fiscal conservative" and "social liberal" because I do not think those labels mean what you think they mean and even if they do, I do not think they apply to this government.

I do not see Carney's government as being fiscally conservative, unless you mean that he is spending a lot of money on military. Most people would confuse "fiscal conservatives" with "fiscally responsible" and attribute it to running a balanced budget and getting the government out of debt. But he is definitely not running a balanced budget, at all.

Social Liberal or Social Progressive is not really applicable. This new liberal party has thus far done nothing to advance social issues. They haven't even pushed back on the nonsense in Alberta and the use of the notwithstanding clause. At best I would say they are "socially neutral" because they haven't done anything to progress social issues and they have done a few things to trample people's rights and privacy in a few of their bills.

Specific examples:

• Bill C-2 - The Strong Boarders Act. The first half of the bill seems reasonable to increase spending on patrols and boarder security. The second half of the bill is socially regressive as it basically says we will ignore privacy and share people's data with America.
• Bill C-5 - Building Canada Act. The first half looks good as it is focused on housing and infrastructure. But then the major projects portion is socially regressive as it gives the government the ability to override people's rights in the name of "national interest" and it gives the minister the ability to decide what is and is not a "national interest". (Consolidating power into a minister is not democratic or socially progressive.)

Overall, I would say that the liberals are doubling down on being Corporatist with a lot of Neoliberalism and some Nationalism on protecting Canada from America. I am not a fan of those attributes but I really do believe that PP would have signed the paperwork to make us the 51st state and I think Carney has done some impressive things in diversifying our trade partnerships and unhooking our economy from America's dominance in a short amount of time and I hope he continues that work at the fastest pace possible. However, the corporatist agenda is dangerous to people as each step, even the good steps, often incorporate something that benefits billionaires and corporations in their drive to make profit from us and ultimately own us.

What will be interesting is to see if we start to see any of the socially progressive promises that Carney made if two things happen:
1) He secures a majority government
2) America has a "blue wave" in the midterms and the Dems put some checks on the insanity going on down there

At that point, will Carney feel safe enough to finally come through on a real green energy agenda based on the book he wrote? And not this carbon capture bs or a focus on nuclear over solar, wind, and hydro, etc. It would make sense for him to prioritize that as a part of the focus he has put into the EU partnership.

I would also hope that he actually start advancing social issues and picking fights with premiers who are trampling on citizen's rights. (Ottawa's silence on the repeated NWC use is not cool)

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by btimbit

Is there an echo in here?

Do you disagree?

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Perhaps it is both.

At the end of the day many NDP voters shifted to the Liberals, effectively handing them the win. And instead of the myth of “radical centrists” getting everything they want from the Carney-led Liberals, the CPC actually grew in voter share as well, but were unable to overcome the Liberal party’s cannibalization of the NDP.

Self-proclaimed radical centrists who are loving the Carney-led Liberals should be thanking NDP supporters for saving them from themselves, as now we all get to watch the Cons die a slow death as those self-proclaimed PP supporting “centrists” slowly see the light. Which would not have been possible, if not for former NDP voters saving them from themselves.

I know many were quite confident this is how it would play out a year ago, despite PP supporters being in firm denial. It’s OK that they’re trying to rewrite their own history now, nobody wants to be someone who was gloating about a win only to have it be snatched from them. It’s good those people are waking up and finally accepting that those people they once called “delusional” were so, so right.

Thanks for that.

What will be interesting is that with the small-C con supporters waking up to the Liberals conversion into the Red-Conservatives, the Liberal base will grow quite a bit as they win over all of the moderate conservative voters. As the CPC is deflated and essentially boiled down to being the Reform party and the Liberals essentially dominate that "right of center" space, it will open up the entire "left side" of the political spectrum.

Once the Liberals have eaten the Conservative's lunch, progressive voters will be able to walk away from the Liberals knowing that the CPC is not a threat and then hopefully build up a NDP that is focused on the areas that the Liberals have abandoned in order to shift-right.

[btimbit]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

Do you disagree?

I don't think anyone does so not sure who you're trying to bait

[Fuzz]

Lots of words from you guys, but Beaverton with the succinct winning summary.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Wolven

Thanks for that.

What will be interesting is that with the small-C con supporters waking up to the Liberals conversion into the Red-Conservatives, the Liberal base will grow quite a bit as they win over all of the moderate conservative voters. As the CPC is deflated and essentially boiled down to being the Reform party and the Liberals essentially dominate that "right of center" space, it will open up the entire "left side" of the political spectrum.

Once the Liberals have eaten the Conservative's lunch, progressive voters will be able to walk away from the Liberals knowing that the CPC is not a threat and then hopefully build up a NDP that is focused on the areas that the Liberals have abandoned in order to shift-right.

That sounds like a lot of wishful thinking. The other consideration is that the Liberals have already taken out the NDP, and now they're taking away the progressive CPC voters. I'm not sure where that leaves an opening for the rejuvenated NDP) to make in roads.

[Doctorfever]

Originally Posted by btimbit

I don't think anyone does so not sure who you're trying to bait

No baiting. Just hoping to have some people learn from the last 10 years. We don’t want to repeat those years.

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Slava

That sounds like a lot of wishful thinking. The other consideration is that the Liberals have already taken out the NDP, and now they're taking away the progressive CPC voters. I'm not sure where that leaves an opening for the rejuvenated NDP) to make in roads.

And MPs! LOL.


If you can't hold no to your MP's, you aren't going to make progress with voters. If the leadership review people don't understand this, they've also failed. I don't know how you can look and see what a leadership and direction change did for the Liberals and then say "ya, no, we are gonna stick with our losing strategy of angry Pierre" and still consider yourself a serious person. You've tried him with and without glasses. What other modifications are there you imagine working any better?

[Roughneck]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Apparently we are told by some of the more fringe posters here that fiscal conservatives while socially liberal cannot exist.

Are we considering $50-80B deficits as an example of fiscal conservatism, now?

[Wolven]

Originally Posted by Slava

That sounds like a lot of wishful thinking. The other consideration is that the Liberals have already taken out the NDP, and now they're taking away the progressive CPC voters. I'm not sure where that leaves an opening for the rejuvenated NDP) to make in roads.

Wishful thinking?

Do you really think both groups of voters can stay in the same tent? The only thing really unifying moderate conservatives and the entire left side of the spectrum is keeping PP and the CPC out of office.

Once the CPC loses enough voters to the Liberals, the threat of the CPC dies down and the unifying issue goes away.

At that point the Liberals will need to choose between policies that keeps the moderate conservatives in the party or the progressives. I think the Liberals will be quite happy to dominate the center-right vote and will let the left go.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

No baiting. Just hoping to have some people learn from the last 10 years. We don’t want to repeat those years.

It’s good that you’ve come around to Carney as opposed to counting him out and trying to criticize him for every minor thing like you were a year ago, but you can rest assured that many of the people you’re hoping learn got there quite a bit faster than you were able to.

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

No baiting. Just hoping to have some people learn from the last 10 years. We don’t want to repeat those years.

Why did you go into hiding for 6 months after Carney won? lol

[Fuzz]

Are there any recent polls showing how CPC voters from the last election would vote now? Has Carney turned more of them over? Or are they still thinking while Carney is doing great and harmonious province binding work, they still think PP would be a better leader for Canada?

[Parallex]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

Or are they still thinking while Carney is doing great and harmonious province binding work, they still think PP would be a better leader for Canada?

Did they ever think that?

In terms of "Best Prime Minister" polling Mark Carney walks up gives PP a wet willy and an atomic wedgie before laughing and saying "get wrecked nerd".

Nanos has it at +22 for Carney.