Calgary Real Estate predictions?

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by cdutka

Pre-sales doesn't really matter all this means is someone has put a deposit down. So that 30-60%, can end up being an empty building if sales fall through.

Also quoting November inventories when we are discussing spikes in January inventories is really miss-leading.

Pre-sales are firm contracts and developers actually CAN legally enforce them if purchasers don't want to complete. In reality, it doesn't happen too often.

Your post stated that there are many projects in construction. There are not. The point was, a project in pre-sale stage (what you often see in advertising) does not mean construction stage. A developer can stop the project in a pre-sale stage and return the deposits, if the market is weak. A project in construction stage must go on and get built; thus, contributing to completed inventory. Then it faces the risk of buyers not willing to close, if they can't get a mortgage, lost a job etc.

[Krovikan]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

Pre-sales are firm contracts and developers actually CAN legally enforce them if purchasers don't want to complete. In reality, it doesn't happen too often.

If the buyer has no means of buying the condo, legally enforcing them won't do any good.

[polak]

Originally Posted by Red

Just heard on qr77 news. CREB predicts sales to slow down 4% and prices to have only 1.5% gains this year.

That's based on their predictions that oil will bounce back by mid year.

Yup, they are experts on commodities now too.

They are salesmen. Couldn't say "Housing prices predicted to drop 20%" as that would stop prespective buyers for going out and buying a house now so they found a nice caveat that those predictions are based on "oil bouncing back mid-year" which is a complete guess.

[CaptainYooh]

Originally Posted by cdutka

If the buyer has no means of buying the condo, legally enforcing them won't do any good.

It can do a lot of bad, but regardless, I just corrected the statement in your post (below), what and why are are you arguing?

Originally Posted by cdutka

Condos, there are a lot of buildings under constructions ...

[shermanator]

As someone who is going to start looking at moving from a condo to a house, I don't mind the timing of this. I would gladly lose $20K in market value on my condo to pay $40K less on a house.

[Krovikan]

Originally Posted by CaptainYooh

It can do a lot of bad, but regardless, I just corrected the statement in your post (below), what and why are are you arguing?

Actually you said a lot more than a correction, and inferred that a 30-60% pre-sales makes a difference. While looking out the window from my job I quite disagree with the amount of projects under construction. So I am bringing into question your inference that 30-60% sales matter primarily, focusing my argument on that particular issue. In reality I think your entire attempt at a correction was incorrect.

[darklord700]

Originally Posted by cdutka

If the buyer has no means of buying the condo, legally enforcing them won't do any good.

But those buyers will lose their deposit which could easily be 10-20% of the purchase price, won't they?

[InglewoodFan]

Originally Posted by Red

Just heard on qr77 news. CREB predicts sales to slow down 4% and prices to have only 1.5% gains this year.

That's based on their predictions that oil will bounce back by mid year.

Yup, they are experts on commodities now too.

Judging by their SWAT team commercial, they know all about cartels...

[darklord700]

http://www.msn.com/en-ca/money/topst...ket/ar-AA8cgTh

A little diversion from the Calgary discussion, this Fort Mac house on the picture costs a whopping $870K. The land and construction costs can't be worth that much. So why is this $870K? Demand outstripping supply must be the answer. But that's too far remove from the cost reality and I don't think it can last.

[darklord700]

Nm.

[Bill Bumface]

Originally Posted by Red

Just heard on qr77 news. CREB predicts sales to slow down 4% and prices to have only 1.5% gains this year.

That's based on their predictions that oil will bounce back by mid year.

Yup, they are experts on commodities now too.

Great. I was really hoping oil would bounce back by mid year. If CREB said it, now it's obvious that such an opinion is foolishly over optimistic.

[Travis Munroe]

After gathering dozens of opinions from friends and clientele I have come to one conclusion -

Those in the O&G industry are not overly concerned, have received a bid of confidence from their employer and see this as a small bump in the road.

Those who are not in the industry are the ones predicting oil drops another $15 and housing prices drop 10-20%

A friend who's CEO has been through the last 3-4 oil recessions was telling their office that this is the least concerning one to date.


Time will tell!

[Krovikan]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

After gathering dozens of opinions from friends and clientele I have come to one conclusion -

Those in the O&G industry are not overly concerned, have received a bid of confidence from their employer and see this as a small bump in the road.

Those who are not in the industry are the ones predicting oil drops another $15 and housing prices drop 10-20%

A friend who's CEO has been through the last 3-4 oil recessions was telling their office that this is the least concerning one to date.


Time will tell!

The O&G industry has to be positive and project an image of calm, otherwise they can add downward pressure from speculators and cause more damage. I have heard the exact opposite from friends and family in the O&G industry, it's all anecdotal evidence.

Nothing you said in this post has any credibility because if you look at the numbers they tell a different story then what you are being told. If they were not worried they would not be slashing capex spending.

Will the price fall $15 dollars? Anyones guess, if anything I would look at what the bankers are doing (not saying but doing) to see when supply may fall. If they start divesting / writing off loans to specific oil companies we may be on the verge of Shale collapsing in the US.

Banks are currently testing where their investment in the O&G industry against low oil prices going out to 2016, that plus supply & demand estimations show continued downward pressure at this time. Unless something gives I think we will break through $40 in by Feb. even all the celebrating on the spike today oil has lost all those gains and back hovering around $46.

[polak]

Even if that is the case (I'm uneducated in the matter but recent moves like those done by Suncor suggest otherwise), there is no point of risking buying now when prices are still trending down. Even if you miss the bottom out point, it's not like prices are going to sky rocket if Oil jumps back to $70 a barrel.

No risk in waiting.

[lorenavedon]

Originally Posted by Realtor 1

After gathering dozens of opinions from friends and clientele I have come to one conclusion -

Those in the O&G industry are not overly concerned, have received a bid of confidence from their employer and see this as a small bump in the road.

Those who are not in the industry are the ones predicting oil drops another $15 and housing prices drop 10-20%

A friend who's CEO has been through the last 3-4 oil recessions was telling their office that this is the least concerning one to date.


Time will tell!

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by darklord700

But those buyers will lose their deposit which could easily be 10-20% of the purchase price, won't they?

Yes they would. Unless priced drop so far it's worth it to walk away from your deposit, it's unlikely many buyers would not close on their purchase.

Not to mention a lot of those development will have 2016/17/18 completions, so the state of the Calgary market at that time will be different anyway.

[kevman]

Originally Posted by cdutka

I have heard the exact opposite from friends and family in the O&G industry, it's all anecdotal evidence.

Meh, bears hear what they want to hear and bulls hear what they want to hear. This is nothing new.

I work in O&G and am not too worried.
Then again, my house flooded in 2013 and I'm not too worried about that happening again either.

Life's too unpredictable to stress about the things you can't control.

The glass is always half full over here.

As for the market, I quite like Mike Fotiou's latest entry with the contrasting opinions.
http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2...market-update/
Are things slower than last year? Yup.
Are they as slow as 2009? Nope.

Interpret how you will but stats are stats.

[Kavvy]

Originally Posted by kevman

Interpret how you will but stats are stats.

Aw, you can come up with statistics to prove anything, Kent. Forfty percent of all people know that.

[Red]

Originally Posted by kevman

Meh, bears hear what they want to hear and bulls hear what they want to hear. This is nothing new.

I work in O&G and am not too worried.
Then again, my house flooded in 2013 and I'm not too worried about that happening again either.

Life's too unpredictable to stress about the things you can't control.

The glass is always half full over here.

As for the market, I quite like Mike Fotiou's latest entry with the contrasting opinions.
http://calgaryrealestatereview.com/2...market-update/
Are things slower than last year? Yup.
Are they as slow as 2009? Nope.

Interpret how you will but stats are stats.

Precisely.

Sales -30%
Inventory +56%

2015 is off to a smoking start.

http://www.creb.com/Seller_Resources...ng_Statistics/

[Red]

And now the typically realtor friendly media is on it.

The Calgary housing market is cooling fast. New sales and listing data for the first half of the month have been released and the numbers aren’t pretty.

http://globalnews.ca/news/1781133/ho...ection-begins/