Liberals will move to topple Conservative Gov't

[jonesy]

This fight between Iowa and Cow going on in the sidelines is entertaining.

'a boob of some sort' that is pretty funny.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by jonesy

This fight between Iowa and Cow going on in the sidelines is entertaining.

'a boob of some sort' that is pretty funny.

We're just doing a little viral PR. The main event will be later this month on Pay-Per-View, but we wanted to make it seem like a grudge match.

[CaptainCrunch]

Where he lived and worked isn't really relevant for me, however his policy and political statements while he lived and worked in that States are hugely relevant.

[Gozer]

Originally Posted by Iowa_Flames_Fan

We're just doing a little viral PR. The main event will be later this month on Pay-Per-View, but we wanted to make it seem like a grudge match.

You would be more intimidating if your avatar wasn't so adorable.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Now, the American qualities of his policies (and in particular his foreign policy) do bear a lot of analysis and I do hope that they become a major issue in this election campaign, because I'm not sure I am entirely clear on where he stands on some issues.

Yeah, that's really what I'm getting at. I personally think there is enough of a difference between Canadian and American values, that it does raise some flags.

Just to go for the most obvious example... has he adapted to living and working in an American society to the point where he is now a believer in the right to protect himself with a concealed handgun?

(Wildly over-the-top and probably pretty absurd, but it's an example that I think everyone will be able to understand right away. I am in no way suggesting I actually think he carries a gun in his suit pocket, or that he even believes he should be allowed to.)

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Yeah, that's really what I'm getting at. I personally think there is enough of a difference between Canadian and American values, that it does raise some flags.

Just to go for the most obvious example... has he adapted to living and working in an American society to the point where he is now a believer in the right to protect himself with a concealed handgun?

(Wildly over-the-top and probably pretty absurd, but it's an example that I think everyone will be able to understand right away. I am in no way suggesting I actually think he carries a gun in his suit pocket, or that he even believes he should be allowed to.)

Right. Although the not-really-irony-unless-you're-Alanis of it is that he lived in Britain for 22 years, and nobody is too concerned that he's picked up British values. What if he's taken to having tea at 3:00 afternoon? What if he calls a garage a carpark, or an elevator a lift? Although I don't think it's really so much that living in America would cause him to have different values; it's moreso a case that the ideas he's had since long-before he moved to the US are not necessarily in keeping with what we think of for a (particularly Liberal) PM. Do we want to redefine ourselves and our nation to match his idea of what Canada should be (not just the vision that he espouses in platform speeches, but the vision that's been underlying all of his political writing for the last couple decades).

[flamesaresmokin]

Originally Posted by Pastiche

I just don't get alot of people's take on politics. I think people would be far less disillusioned with politics if they understood the nature of it better. Politics is about seeking power. Every competitive politcal leader on earth has their number one priority as obtaining power. Politicians actions are guided entirely by this one truth. There is no righteousness in pursuing political office.

Ignatieff is seeking power. You may not want him to achieve power but why would you castigate him for trying to do his job? You see, competitive power seeking parties are actually a good thing because it's the backbone of a democracy.

The backbone of democracy is not to further waste money that is obviously needed elsewhere while you try to jump at your only chance to take power. If he was for real he would wait until the new year when most are saying the economy will rebound and go about this the right way. There is no way they can make any sort of difference even if they win a minority government.

[flamesaresmokin]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Haven't you picked up on this yet?

If the party you support is in opposition and attempts to topple the government, they're doing their job and protecting the interests of all Canadians.

If the party you oppose is in opposition and attempts to topple the government, they're just a bunch of power-hungry morons (or, even more tastelessly, "sluts" or "bitches" if senior members of the party are female).

Typical take on politics from liberal fanatics. Who says i'm a conservative fan. As a canadian in general i'm offended by the way this minority government has gone down since last fall. The opposition needs to act like an opposition and actually try to work together. They are obviously not wanted (or there would not be a conservative minority). Its up them to work and continue to work toward bettering the country not work to topple the government at every turn and waste more taxpayer money. There has not been any valid reasons thus far to legitimately topple the current administration. Maybe I could see it from another angle if the polls showed a huge jump in liberal support....wonder if there is a coincedence that the liberals just slipped a ton in the latest polls that they now say they are forcing an election? They realize its now or never and has nothing to do with our best interests as canadians.

This ignatieff moron was not even picked by the liberal party. Sorry but there is something whole hardheartedly wrong with him running for pm.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

Yeah, that's really what I'm getting at. I personally think there is enough of a difference between Canadian and American values, that it does raise some flags.

Just to go for the most obvious example... has he adapted to living and working in an American society to the point where he is now a believer in the right to protect himself with a concealed handgun?

(Wildly over-the-top and probably pretty absurd, but it's an example that I think everyone will be able to understand right away. I am in no way suggesting I actually think he carries a gun in his suit pocket, or that he even believes he should be allowed to.)

In principle, I see nothing wrong with looking at Ignatieff's ideas and analyzing their suitability to a Canadian context. The other side of that is that perhaps living abroad allows him to think outside of the conventions of political thought in Canada. I haven't seen much evidence of that--but it's at least as likely as the notion that he will import American ideas that don't work here.

I lived in the U.S. for 11 years. I never--ever--stopped being, feeling, self-identifying as Canadian. I actually think I appreciate my country more than some people who've never experienced anything else. It gives you a profound sense of what is great about Canada as well as the things we could improve. In no way do I think my time abroad has made me less of a Canadian.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by flamesaresmokin

wonder if there is a coincedence that the liberals just slipped a ton in the latest polls that they now say they are forcing an election? They realize its now or never and has nothing to do with our best interests as canadians.

You mean the Ipsos Reid one from August 24? Did you have a look at the Harris Decima one from the same day?

http://www.harrisdecima.com/en/downl...es/082409E.pdf

It paints the picture as being pretty good for the Liberals right now, and its sample size is nearly double (2000 to 1000) what the Ipsos Reid one was.
It presents almost the exact opposite picture in Ontario (Libs leading 40 to 34, vs. Tories leading 41 to 30 in the IR). As discussed on here when the Ipsos Reid one came out, it really does look like an outlier.

[EddyBeers]

Originally Posted by octothorp

You mean the Ipsos Reid one from August 24? Did you have a look at the Harris Decima one from the same day?

http://www.harrisdecima.com/en/downl...es/082409E.pdf

It paints the picture as being pretty good for the Liberals right now, and its sample size is nearly double (2000 to 1000) what the Ipsos Reid one was.
It presents almost the exact opposite picture in Ontario (Libs leading 40 to 34, vs. Tories leading 41 to 30 in the IR). As discussed on here when the Ipsos Reid one came out, it really does look like an outlier.

Those poll numbers are definitely good for the Grits. Those Ontario numbers alone, with the right splits could lead to 65-70 seats minimum in that province, Atlantic is probably good for 25 seats for the Grits and Quebec is probably good for 15-20 with those numbers. That could lead them 105-115 coming out west. If they can pull 10-15 in the Western provinces, they would likely form government. If the poll numbers were really slipping for the Grits, Harper and his buddies would not be in such a panic to throw water on the idea of an election. Unless people actually think that Harper has become adverse to elections in the past 12 months.

[CaptainCrunch]

I'm more interested in seeing what the polls do if the government falls, I think there will be some significant shifts in seats.

[Rerun]

When everybody talks about the current minority government I think everyone (including me) is forgetting how close to a majority that the Conservatives really have. They hold 143 seats in the current parliament, the Liberals hold 77, the NDP hold 36, and the Bloq hold 48, out of a total of 308 seats. That means that currently the Conservatives are only 12 seats short of a majority. The Conservatives have 86% more seats than the Libs. Can the Liberals make up that 86% and overtake the Conservatives? I doubt it.

[octothorp]

Originally Posted by Rerun

When everybody talks about the current minority government I think everyone (including me) is forgetting how close to a majority that the Conservatives really have. They hold 143 seats in the current parliament, the Liberals hold 77, the NDP hold 36, and the Bloq hold 48, out of a total of 308 seats. That means that currently the Conservatives are only 12 seats short of a majority. The Conservatives have 86% more seats than the Libs. Can the Liberals make up that 86% and overtake the Conservatives? I doubt it.

Keep in mind that to form the government, they only need to pass the Conservatives, which, if the Bloc and NDP stay the same, means they need 34 seats, not 67 (since every seat gained is one lost by the opposition). So rather than needing to increase their number of seats by 86%, it's actually closer to 43%. And if they're able to steal a half-dozen seats from the Bloc (who's numbers are way down) and a few from the NDP, then it's looking more like they need to pick up about 25 or so currently Conservative seats. Is that possible? You could easily point out 25 Conservative seats that the Liberals could challenge (and of course, there are a lot of seats they'll have to defend against all three other parties). If I was betting, I'd bet against it, but wouldn't be that unusual a swing for a Canadian election.

[Rerun]

Originally Posted by octothorp

Keep in mind that to form the government, they only need to pass the Conservatives, which, if the Bloc and NDP stay the same, means they need 34 seats, not 67 (since every seat gained is one lost by the opposition). So rather than needing to increase their number of seats by 86%, it's actually closer to 43%. And if they're able to steal a half-dozen seats from the Bloc (who's numbers are way down) and a few from the NDP, then it's looking more like they need to pick up about 25 or so currently Conservative seats. Is that possible? You could easily point out 25 Conservative seats that the Liberals could challenge (and of course, there are a lot of seats they'll have to defend against all three other parties). If I was betting, I'd bet against it, but wouldn't be that unusual a swing for a Canadian election.

Good points but your analysis is only correct if they take 34 seats (24% of their current number of Conservative seats) away from the Conservative Party leaving the Conservatives with 109 seats in parliament. I still don't think it would happen. Thats a pretty big swing, particularly when the Libs really don't have anything major to beat the Conservatives over the head with, during the election campaign.

[octothorp]

New poll out from Ekos today.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-conte...ptember-3_.pdf

Interesting that the national totals for both Libs and Cons are 32.6%.

Most significant though are the Liberal numbers in Ontario. If they continue to poll well there in the coming weeks, I think we'll definitely see an election this fall.

[starseed]

Harper will not go back on his refusal to work with the NDP or Bloc, and Ignatieff will bring up a confidence vote on the next opposition day at the end of September if he does not vote down the economic update.

I would say there is a 95% chance of an election.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by octothorp

New poll out from Ekos today.

http://www.ekospolitics.com/wp-conte...ptember-3_.pdf

Interesting that the national totals for both Libs and Cons are 32.6%.

Most significant though are the Liberal numbers in Ontario. If they continue to poll well there in the coming weeks, I think we'll definitely see an election this fall.

Interesting numbers--though I still worry that the Margin of Error for the regional samples is really, really, high. For Saskatchewan, it's almost 10%!

However, pretty clear that an election this fall might be a good deal more interesting than I first thought.

[Iowa_Flames_Fan]

Originally Posted by Rerun

Good points but your analysis is only correct if they take 34 seats (24% of their current number of Conservative seats) away from the Conservative Party leaving the Conservatives with 109 seats in parliament. I still don't think it would happen. Thats a pretty big swing, particularly when the Libs really don't have anything major to beat the Conservatives over the head with, during the election campaign.

Historically, that would be a pretty small swing, actually. And considering EKOS' Ontario numbers, where the Liberals now have a seven point lead, not out of the realm of possiblity. Keep in mind that the Tories have 51 seats in Ontario, so if those numbers (which have a margin of error of 3.7%--quite high in my opinion) are right on, Harper could be in some trouble.

[EddyBeers]

All of the poll numbers out there right now point to a neck and neck race. If Ignatieff beats Duceppe in the French debate, the numbers could potentially break in Quebec. I think Harper is non player in Quebec. He cannot be too happy about the dismal numbers for the NDP in Ontario. The vote split last time really helped him out in Ontario, he could lose upwards of 20 seats in that province if those numbers hold. 20 seats in Ontario, along with the 5-7 he will lose in Quebec and you have a horse race, especially if the NDP lose 5-7 in Ontario and the Grits make a 25 seat gain out there (up to 63 seats)