Democratic Presidential Primaries 2008

[Clever_Iggy]

Originally Posted by Johnny 99

Does anyone think that the delegats in Florida and Michigan will end up being counted?

If so, Hillary won both, IIRC.

[CaptainCrunch]

Florida and Michigan could end up being huge if this thing goes to the end.

[Johnny 99]

As much as I love Hillary, trying to make Florida and Michigan count is a bit cheap. All of the Democratic candidates agreed beforehand to not campaign in Florida. Hillary was there the day before the primary saying how she would do everything to make sure their votes counted. Not very fair to Obama; this will get very ugly if it comes down to deciding the presidency, which it may well do.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Johnny 99

As much as I love Hillary, trying to make Florida and Michigan count is a bit cheap. All of the Democratic candidates agreed beforehand to not campaign in Florida. Hillary was there the day before the primary saying how she would do everything to make sure their votes counted. Not very fair to Obama; this will get very ugly if it comes down to deciding the presidency, which it may well do.

Yeah, because politics are fair.

[CaptainCrunch]

Obama pretty much campaigned by proxy in Florida and Michigan, they are almost the expect me states as far as delegates are concerned.

I have my doubts that Hillary physically making an appearance the day before the primaries would make that big of a swing.

I don't know if there's such a thing as fair when your training to run for president.

[Azure]

Hillary slowly pulling ahead in Texas.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Azure

Hillary slowly pulling ahead in Texas.

That really must be painful for Texas.

I think that Obama didn't really expect much of result there.

[Clever_Iggy]

My goodness. I never would have predicted Hillary to come back in Texas being down early... especially after Obama reeled off 12 straight wins. But to take Ohio as well. Wow.

If this keeps up (Hillary wins Texas and Ohio) and then she wins Pennsylvania (which she is favored, correct?) does Obama pack it in?

[Dan02]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Obama pretty much campaigned by proxy in Florida and Michigan, they are almost the expect me states as far as delegates are concerned.

I have my doubts that Hillary physically making an appearance the day before the primaries would make that big of a swing.

Obama wasn't even on the ballet in Michigan. You can't tell me that won't make a difference.

[Dan02]

Originally Posted by Clever_Iggy

If this keeps up (Hillary wins Texas and Ohio) and then she wins Pennsylvania (which she is favored, correct?) does Obama pack it in?

Seeing as every pundit i've heard said Obama just needed to be close in Texas and Ohio i'm gonna go with no. A tie in Texas is effectively a loss for Clinton.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Dan02

Obama wasn't even on the ballet in Michigan. You can't tell me that won't make a difference.

Your right, I forgot about that, my terrible bad.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Clever_Iggy

My goodness. I never would have predicted Hillary to come back in Texas being down early... especially after Obama reeled off 12 straight wins. But to take Ohio as well. Wow.

If this keeps up (Hillary wins Texas and Ohio) and then she wins Pennsylvania (which she is favored, correct?) does Obama pack it in?

I don't see how she would ever lose in Pennsylvania.

That would be crushing for Obama if this slips away on him. It wasn't long ago that he was pretty much looked at as a lock.

[Clever_Iggy]

Originally Posted by Dan02

Seeing as every pundit i've heard said Obama just needed to be close in Texas and Ohio i'm gonna go with no. A tie in Texas is effectively a loss for Clinton.

But he wasnt close in Ohio. Im just throwing out the inverse of what I discussed earlier in the thread (that if Obama won both, would she pack it in).

Very exciting, but nerve racking for Dems, having to wait until August.

[Johnny 99]

Originally Posted by Dan02

Seeing as every pundit i've heard said Obama just needed to be close in Texas and Ohio i'm gonna go with no. A tie in Texas is effectively a loss for Clinton.

I disagree. A slight lead in delegates going into the convention means nothing - superdelegates are much more important when deciding a close race. Hillary has none other than President Bill Clinton making phone calls on her behalf. He has many favours in his back pocket to call in. This is terrible for the party - they made the convention at the end of August in order to get a bump closer to the actual election; instead, they'll end up with a contentious nominee with only nine weeks to go until the general election. One or both of them will have to make a BIG compromise.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by Johnny 99

I disagree. A slight lead in delegates going into the convention means nothing - superdelegates are much more important when deciding a close race. Hillary has none other than President Bill Clinton making phone calls on her behalf. He has many favours in his back pocket to call in. This is terrible for the party - they made the convention at the end of August in order to get a bump closer to the actual election; instead, they'll end up with a contentious nominee with only nine weeks to go until the general election. One or both of them will have to make a BIG compromise.

I've been wondering if she has even leveraged this yet. There's no way that Bill has even unrolled his backroom influences yet.

[peter12]

So is Obama giving a victory speech in Texas?

[Clever_Iggy]

Originally Posted by peter12

So is Obama giving a victory speech in Texas?

Considering he's down right now in Texas and just lost in Ohio, I think he might be a bit more reserved.

As for Bill's backroom influences - if losing 12 straight primaries heading into Mini super Tuesday wasnt enough to pull out some of the favors, I dont know what is.

Hillary stops Obama's streak cold.

[Johnny 99]

Originally Posted by peter12

So is Obama giving a victory speech in Texas?

He will wait until morning.

[Lanny_MacDonald]

All of you folks do realize that popular vote means little in Texas and Ohio? The way the delgates are structured, Obama could be on the short end of each state in the popular vote and still carry the majority of the delegates. Texas especially is messed up, and with their split in primary and caucases, the delegate distribution could be pretty unconventional. We won't know anything until the delegate count comes in.

Frankly, this is not a good result for Clinton. She was expecting to carry both states, and to do what she is doing in Ohio in Texas as well. The fact that it is close does not bode well for her. There was no doubt she was going to do well in the rustbelt, where the unions have such a big say and Clinton being backed by AFL-CIO. The hispanics in Texas were supposed to carry her to the same type of lopsided victory in Texas too. It will be interesting to see the delegate split.

Oh, and on the Florida and Michigan primaries, if run again, would be extremely interesting. IIRC, the teamsters and the UAW have endorsed Obama, so Michigan would likely end up swinging his way. Clinton would likely take Florida, thanks to the incredible number of New York transplants in the state, so we would be back to where we are now anyways. I hope the DNC refuses to seat the delegates from either state and makes them abide by the rules.

[Johnny 99]

Lanny, at this point it is not about delegates. Heading into the convention, a delegate lead of less than 200 is meaningless. It is all about perception and momentum - Hillary was under severe pressure to drop out of the race, yet now she has the momentum to carry her home in Pennsylvania. Obama had the look of a winner about him coming into tonight; the roles are reversed now. This is going to be very interesting.