Iran

[Drak]

Fox News parrot DF doesn’t even know what the “mission” is. He bought into the BS that the “mission” was to save Iranians who were protesting tyranny and to stop Iranians from being murdered even though a war will kill thousands of innocent people. Then the “mission” objectives changed to “we’re attacking Iran for election interference“ and then to “Iran planned to nuke us in two weeks!” when only a few months ago Trump claimed they obliterated Irans ability to make nukes.

The only thing this “mission” is doing is murdering people, raising oil prices, waging war on the world economy and benefiting Russia.

[Senator Clay Davis]

A successful mission is pretty easy: Democratic regime for the Iranian people, and Trump and Netanyahu both drop dead seconds after the war ends. One can dream.

[marsplasticeraser]

Originally Posted by Doctorfever

In your opinion, what would make the mission successful?

Others feel free to chime in as well.

Is there an outcome that is good for Iranians and the rest of the world? I just don't see what that could be.

Here are the possible outcomes I see.

Option 1: Positive regime change-Very, very unlikely
The poster child for this is Venezuela. But has anything actually changed there with Maduro gone? Life hasn't changed for ordinary Venezuelans. Same corrupt government. Gangs still have enormous control on everyday life. Really it's just that US firms have better access to Venezuela's oil and the US isn't harassing the Venezuelan government.

Venezuela was never a threat, and still isn't a threat. Trump just isn't talking about it.

Also, Iran is a theocracy, with multiple ethnic groups, and a strong military. How do you find a government that can rule Iran without degenerating into civil war from all these different groups?


Option 2: Negative regime change-Possible to likely.
Much like getting rid of other horrible leaders like Saddam, al-Assad, or Gaddafi, the population rejoices and then the power vacuum leads to civil war and quasi terrorist states.


Option 3: US occupies Iran for years/decades-Possible
Afghanistan 2.0. What's worse, I'm not sure this actually opens up the Strait of Hormuz, so the world struggles with oil supply, as ragtag militia's in Yemen could still keep hitting targets in Red Sea.

On the positive side, perhaps this leads a green revolution as countries invest heavily in solar/wind.


Option 3: US continues aerial bombardment-Possible
Basically keep the status quo. Again Yemen is a great example that this doesn't solve Strait of Hormuz issue.

This is interesting, as Trump will under increasing pressure from Americans to stop this. But that will be countered by very strong pressure from Russia, Israel, and China to continue this strategy, which typically win these types of decisions.


Option 4: US declares victory and stops-Possible
This is the most 'Trump' outcome. He declares himself winner and stops bombing. So no real change, this becomes like Venezuela and Trump forgets about Iran.

But will Israel stop bombing? Maybe.

Will Iran allow oil to be exported through Strait of Hormuz just because the bombs stop? I don't think so.

So I don't think Trump declaring war ends this, and likely means that Trump restarts an aerial bombardment.


Option 5: US drops a nuke - Possible
Another 'Trump' outcome. This is possible as I can see Trump not wanting a ground war, and hoping for a quick capitulation like WW2.

So Trump deploys nuclear bombs on Tehran, world is aghast. But does one bomb do it? Does Tehran actually have nukes and they deploy them on Israel? Does this get out of hand?


Option 6: We don't know yet
Trump is unpredictable, who knows what he will do or not do.

So which option is likely and good? Only #1, and it is the most unlikely of them all.

[Drak]

Kyle Griffin @kylegriffin1.bsky.social‬
BREAKING:

WASHINGTON (AP) - All 6 crew aboard US KC-135 refueling aircraft that crashed in Iraq are dead, US military says.

[Fuzz]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...ash-iraq-iran/


Sounds like two KC-135's collided mid air? Be interesting to see the investigation on this, why were tankers so close to each other?

[Parallex]

Did the U.S. just not have a plan here? I mean... it really looks like a cluster#### now. So far all they've managed to do is drive up energy costs and spend a lot of money to replace the leader who hates you on principal with a leader who also hates you on principal and now bares a grudge owing to the fact that you annihilated his whole family.

Did they not have intelligence assets on the ground that could have facilitated a popular uprising after the death of Khomenei the Elder? Anyways... the U.S. is basically pot committed at least until they can take out Khomenei the Younger.

[Drak]

Boots on the ground

Paywall though.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/us-...0XIIe31W3np2aI


https://bsky.app/profile/muellershew.../3mgx7ntm4tk2a


Mueller, She Wrote

‪@muellershewrote.com‬
BREAKING: BOOTS ON THE GROUND. The pentagon is sending a Marine Expeditionary Unit of up to 2,500 to Iran. 1/ www.wsj.com/livecoverage...

[Drak]

[Fuzz]

Originally Posted by Parallex

Did the U.S. just not have a plan here? I mean... it really looks like a cluster#### now. So far all they've managed to do is drive up energy costs and spend a lot of money to replace the leader who hates you on principal with a leader who also hates you on principal and now bares a grudge owing to the fact that you annihilated his whole family.

Did they not have intelligence assets on the ground that could have facilitated a popular uprising after the death of Khomenei the Elder? Anyways... the U.S. is basically pot committed at least until they can take out Khomenei the Younger.

Ya, there have been plenty of articles about how they didn't have a plan. What it sounds like is Bibi said he was going to do this with or without the US, and the US said "OK fine" and maybe thought it was going to go like last year when it was 12 days or whatever.

But Israel's plan is scorched Earth, they don't care about human suffering there. They don't really care about the Straight of Hormuz. Their agenda is to decimate Iran so they don't have to worry about terrorist attacks, which is a fair and reasonable desire. I don't fault that goal. But the reality is this will not lead to that. We know this, because there are countless examples from history. Perhaps they know, too, that they are just buying a decade of down time. The reality is you can't get peace with war on a people(not Iran, terrorists) who are not rational actors. Their fundamental philosophies are not compatible with peace with Israel.

They way out of this is long and hard, involving decades of work to turn people from desperation to hope and success so they don't see desperation as the only option. You do this one child at a time. One village, one town, one school. It's hard dedicated work that can fix this. Not bombs. Unfortunately resources for this are scarce, but hey, at least billionaires can have planes and yachts, and now rockets. We reap what we sow.

[Swift]

Re: no plans

Iran started to lay mines on Thursday in the strait of Hormuz, a crucial Gulf passage for 20% of the world’s oil supply, US officials told the New York Times.

While Donald Trump has boasted that the US military has destroyed Iran’s navy, officials said Iran had started using smaller boats to place mines and enforce the closure of the strait it had imposed on its Gulf neighbours, sending oil prices sky high.

Iran’s move to close the narrow passage has long been an expected move by war planners in previous administrations but apparently took the Trump administration by surprise.

CNN reported on Thursday that senior Trump administration officials told lawmakers in recent classified briefings that they did not plan for the possibility of Iran closing the strait in response to strikes by the US and Israel.

“Planning around preventing this exact scenario … has been a bedrock principle of US national security policy for decades,” a former US official who served in Republican and Democratic administrations told CNN. “I’m dumbfounded.”

[Senator Clay Davis]

Maybe it's just me, but putting a hardcore alcoholic in charge of the military may have not been the best idea.

https://twitter.com/user/status/2032442154073694659

[The Yen Man]

I honestly think the scariest nuclear threat is Netanyahu frustrated that Iran's fighting back and getting bombarded by Iranian missiles, and in a fit or rage, he nukes Iran.

It's rich that Netanyahu makes all these false claims about Iran being a nuclear threat in a matter of weeks for the past 30 years, when it's him that's the biggest nuclear threat to the world.

[TheIronMaiden]

Netanyahu has done for Jews what Al-Qaeda did for Muslims. Prejudice is on the rise.

[Bigtime]

The USS Tripoli with its detachment of Marines is heading for the region now (Wall Street Journal reporting).

[SutterBrother]

Originally Posted by curves2000

Another PBS Frontline masterpiece documentary on all the parties involved in this conflict. Root causes, expert analysis, thought provoking questions and all presented without the typical BS you get from political sides. This is real journalism.

Watched this last night. It was excellent.

Netanyahu played Trump like a fiddle in order to achieve his goal of getting the US to attack Iran. He knew exactly how to flatter and involve him, and allow him to take all the credit.

Amazing that two guys who should be in jail have totally f-ed the world order for generations.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...ash-iraq-iran/


Sounds like two KC-135's collided mid air? Be interesting to see the investigation on this, why were tankers so close to each other?

As weird as it sounds one was probably refueling the other, the fuel tanks they use to fly being separate from the ones they use to refuel with I believe

[Fuzz]

That would be weird, because I don't think they have that capability, and I don't know why they would.

[TorqueDog]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Maybe it's just me, but putting a hardcore alcoholic in charge of the military may have not been the best idea.

https://twitter.com/user/status/2032442154073694659

LOL Great, the strait is open, save for the risk of severe injury / death and destruction of property should you transit the thing. Splendid.

[Lubicon]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

That would be weird, because I don't think they have that capability, and I don't know why they would.

I'm reading that a few of the KC-135's do possess the ability, although not all of them. Reason being it would allow a tanker that is finished it's mission to offload some of it's fuel to another one that is remaining on station.

[FlamesAddiction]

I thought this video was a good balanced summary of Shia Islamist ideology in Iran and gives a bit of an understanding of why the regime won't easily back down. Historical and religious context is important to understand why Iran having nuclear weapons gives neighbouring countries more anxiety than other countries in the region. As always, consider the source and open to criticism.



Also, don't take this an me justifying the U.S. or Israel engaging in a conflict like this. I think what they are doing is equally as dangerous and isn't solving anything. It's more just a response to critics when they question why Iran in particular is feared compared to other nuclear countries.