Francis: It's time for the Flames to get serious about bottoming out

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Though I feel like I'm repeating this for the millionth time, I'll say it again. The team's opening 9 games was a gauntlet from hell, and that part of the schedule is behind them. It gets easier from here (aside from a road trip to the SE). The team will be able to make up a lot of ground due to the hardest part of the schedule already being behind them.

Any analysis that does not take this fact into account, is incomplete and flawed imo.

You can't just look at the record right now and say hey look, the team's true colors are showing.

Yeah... I mean, how much easier does the schedule get though? we went what -1 of 7 -so what does better look like for this team? 3 of the next 7... could be much better than that, but even a significant improvement could still have us in the bottom of the standings.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Though I feel like I'm repeating this for the millionth time, I'll say it again. The team's opening 9 games was a gauntlet from hell, and that part of the schedule is behind them. It gets easier from here (aside from a road trip to the SE). The team will be able to make up a lot of ground due to the hardest part of the schedule already being behind them.

Any analysis that does not take this fact into account, is incomplete and flawed imo.

You can't just look at the record right now and say hey look, the team's true colors are showing.

The teams true colors are what the standings say they are. The reason you keep repeating this is because nobody is buying it. The difficult opening schedule has nothing to do with the fact that this team has difficulty scoring goals. Even with a five goal outburst on Sunday they are still last in GF with only 21 goals scored in 10 games. Yes there are ebbs and flows over an 82 game season but this team needs to play air tight defense to win games and to date they have not been able to pull that off on a consistent basis and it's pretty far fetched to think they will pull off another 90+ point season with a negative goal differential. Last season was never going to be repeatable for this group without an upsurge of offense.

[Hackey]

That Francis is a smart guy.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Mathgod

Though I feel like I'm repeating this for the millionth time, I'll say it again. The team's opening 9 games was a gauntlet from hell, and that part of the schedule is behind them. It gets easier from here (aside from a road trip to the SE). The team will be able to make up a lot of ground due to the hardest part of the schedule already being behind them.

Any analysis that does not take this fact into account, is incomplete and flawed imo.

You can't just look at the record right now and say hey look, the team's true colors are showing.

Yes, the schedule was tough.

But they went 1-7-1. Had they gone 2-3-2 or something like that, no worries. But I don't think they have the horses to dig out of a 1-7-1 hole. It's just math - they need to play at well over a .600 pace for the remainder of the season. And that isn't happening.

[Calgary4LIfe]

It is the will after that tough start for me, on top of this team not actually getting better on paper (and likely worse - if not at the moment, then with the eventual Andersson trade).


I think it was easy to play hard all season last year given the schedule. I think it snowballed for them, and was at least part of the reason why they defied expectations. This season was a tough start. They have looked much better lately (especially in the last 3), but will there will be there this season?


I think it will get snuffed-out. Conroy essentially has to trade Andersson - you can't allow him to walk for free. Kadri is creating ripples out there (well, he isn't, but the media is now). There is a solid chance that they simply either meet expectations, or even fail to meet whatever expectations were set for them (seen a lot of 80-odd point guesses prior to the season starting by some gambling sites that was posted here, IIRC).


Either way, whatever happens, it is going to be a very interesting season, especially if your name is Craig Conroy. That's a lot of decisions he needs to make again this season.

[Vinny01]

It is weird but if this team plays their way out of this bad start I am going to be annoyed.

They needed a good start to have a chance and they blew it. They are likely very capable of going on a run that moves our pick into the 8-13 range but for this year and maybe next I think we need to get some assets for the vets and get a high pick or two to join our impressive prospect ranks

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

It is weird but if this team plays their way out of this bad start I am going to be annoyed.

They needed a good start to have a chance and they blew it. They are likely very capable of going on a run that moves our pick into the 8-13 range but for this year and maybe next I think we need to get some assets for the vets and get a high pick or two to join our impressive prospect ranks

The next 10 games are critical no matter what side you are on. Trades will not happen in the next few weeks. Maybe 1 deal max but I would be shocked.

IMO for the Flames to even think playoffs, they need a minimum 12 points in 10 games. That would give them 17 in 20. Not that I personally think that is a good spot to be in, but realistically nobody should expect them to make up all the ground in 10 games. For me it's more like 14 points in 10 games before I even think of not selling. Even then 20 games in and this team is under .500.

11 or less, selling needs to happen ASAP. SJ will have bad stretches, but their 1st line should win them some games. If their goalies play well, I can see them being close to a 70-point team.

I would have thought Chicago, Pittsburgh and Anaheim would also be the favourites with SJ to be in the top 5. All 3 have a reasonable lead on the Flames so far.

Boston could choose to tank, NYR might as well. But I doubt then will be way below 70-point teams as they have players they won't/can't move.

Right now, I see 70 points being in the bottom 3 and really, we could see 65 being last. If we trade Rasmus ASAP and Kadri at the deadline and maybe Coleman too. This team will really struggle to get 70 points if they have a 10-game stretch at 8 points or less the odds go up.

13 points after 20 games leaves 52 in 62. This is not unrealistic for this team to accomplish with a couple trades.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

It is weird but if this team plays their way out of this bad start I am going to be annoyed.

Well they are going to play better as I don't think their poor luck around the net was sustainable and I'm sure they will go on a few heaters over the season. They won't finish 32nd for sure but hopefully they can remain in the bottom 5 at the very least.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Well they are going to play better as I don't think their poor luck around the net was sustainable and I'm sure they will go on a few heaters over the season. They won't finish 32nd for sure but hopefully they can remain in the bottom 5 at the very least.

Agreed that’s where I hope they finish at best/worst. I just hope they don’t go 7-2-1 and end up at .500 at the quarter pole mark because it is more likely in my opinion they don’t do much other than deal Andersson if that is the case.

[CroFlames]

Anything can happen, but I certainly don't see this team going 7-2-1

At best, I think they can maintain .500, but they are already in such a deep hole that .500 is good for a high pick.

If you trade Andersson, Coleman, and/or Kadri, they can easily go below a .500 pace which is even better.

[NegativeSpace]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Yes, the schedule was tough.

But they went 1-7-1. Had they gone 2-3-2 or something like that, no worries. But I don't think they have the horses to dig out of a 1-7-1 hole. It's just math - they need to play at well over a .600 pace for the remainder of the season. And that isn't happening.

They need to start picking up points, particularly over November and December. I was discussing in the Rangers PGT that if the Flames are a little better than .500 by the end of the year (which is still a tall task at this point) then they have a chance to catch up to the teams in the WC spots.


In every post like this I think it is obligatory to say that I personally view the team leaning into a tough season with a good draft as a good thing. So, I am not opposed to them bottoming out this year. It's just way to early to make these conclusions. There are plenty of times that teams have a tough start and play their way back into it.


Now, if you question whether the team has the talent to do so or is capable of such play then that is a different question being discussed. All that is being said is there is still lots of runway to catch up. Whether they can do so or have the talent to do so will be determined.

[Icantwhisper]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Well they are going to play better as I don't think their poor luck around the net was sustainable and I'm sure they will go on a few heaters over the season. They won't finish 32nd for sure but hopefully they can remain in the bottom 5 at the very least.

What poor luck? I think we had good luck, half our goals weren't even shots on net, just took a lucky bounce and went in of defender or missed play.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by NegativeSpace

They need to start picking up points, particularly over November and December. I was discussing in the Rangers PGT that if the Flames are a little better than .500 by the end of the year (which is still a tall task at this point) then they have a chance to catch up to the teams in the WC spots.


In every post like this I think it is obligatory to say that I personally view the team leaning into a tough season with a good draft as a good thing. So, I am not opposed to them bottoming out this year. It's just way to early to make these conclusions. There are plenty of times that teams have a tough start and play their way back into it.


Now, if you question whether the team has the talent to do so or is capable of such play then that is a different question being discussed. All that is being said is there is still lots of runway to catch up. Whether they can do so or have the talent to do so will be determined.

Most of the posters saying that they need to play 100-point hockey from now on to have a chance to make the playoffs are mostly saying the next 10 or so games are big.

Lots of season left, but at the 20-game mark if they IMO play 11 points or less.... season will be over. If they have 16 points or less at 20 games, they will need a 104-point pace or better to end up with 94 which probably does not get you in.

Team as is right now, is capable of 90 points even with the bad start, but if the hole gets bigger, I doubt Conroy sits around and hopes for the playoffs. Rasmus will get traded. Sounds like Kadri's NMC flipped to a M-NTC already. This team will be in the mix for bottom 5 if we trade these 2 players.

The other factor is the starts for teams predicted to be the bottom 5 teams. I would say most would say that SJ, Chicago, Anaheim, Seattle and Pittsburgh were the most likely bottom 5. Right now, these teams have the following.

Pittsburgh - 15 in 10 and 10 ahead
Seattle - 12 in 9 and 7 ahead
Chicago - 10 in 9 and 5 ahead
Anaheim - 9 in 8 and 4 ahead
SJ - 6 in 9 and 1 ahead

All these teams are being carried by players that they will not trade.

Flames have Rasmus who is top 2 in minutes played, Kadri leads the team in points and Coleman leads the team in goals. With Vladar gone and questionable backups. This team is set up for bottom 3 if they want as I just don't see why anyone would think that you need to be a 50-point team to get last. Unless teams like Boston trade Pastrnak or NYR trade Panarin or some team not listed does a big sell off what other team like the Flames can list 3 key contributors like I just did that are very likely to get traded and are as valuable to their team as these 3 are?

Maybe Nashville sells but everyone on that team has a NMC and they are a no state tax team, and players want to stay there

[NegativeSpace]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Most of the posters saying that they need to play 100-point hockey from now on to have a chance to make the playoffs are mostly saying the next 10 or so games are big.

Lots of season left, but at the 20-game mark if they IMO play 11 points or less.... season will be over. If they have 16 points or less at 20 games, they will need a 104-point pace or better to end up with 94 which probably does not get you in.

Team as is right now, is capable of 90 points even with the bad start, but if the hole gets bigger, I doubt Conroy sits around and hopes for the playoffs. Rasmus will get traded. Sounds like Kadri's NMC flipped to a M-NTC already. This team will be in the mix for bottom 5 if we trade these 2 players.

The other factor is the starts for teams predicted to be the bottom 5 teams. I would say most would say that SJ, Chicago, Anaheim, Seattle and Pittsburgh were the most likely bottom 5. Right now, these teams have the following.

Pittsburgh - 15 in 10 and 10 ahead
Seattle - 12 in 9 and 7 ahead
Chicago - 10 in 9 and 5 ahead
Anaheim - 9 in 8 and 4 ahead
SJ - 6 in 9 and 1 ahead

All these teams are being carried by players that they will not trade.

Flames have Rasmus who is top 2 in minutes played, Kadri leads the team in points and Coleman leads the team in goals. With Vladar gone and questionable backups. This team is set up for bottom 3 if they want as I just don't see why anyone would think that you need to be a 50-point team to get last. Unless teams like Boston trade Pastrnak or NYR trade Panarin or some team not listed does a big sell off what other team like the Flames can list 3 key contributors like I just did that are very likely to get traded and are as valuable to their team as these 3 are?

Maybe Nashville sells but everyone on that team has a NMC and they are a no state tax team, and players want to stay there

I think that we largely agree. I was thinking that the end of November was the cut off and if they were not back in the mix by then you can convincingly argue that they are done. SuperMatt convinced me that it is probably closer to December given the Flames' schedule in the New Year. Regardless of whether it is the next 10 games, end of November, or Jan 2026, the team does need a consistent period of time picking up points right away.


I think that a discussion of whether this team can get itself back into the mix given the roster and the roles and ages of the key contributors is a related but different question to whether it is too early to decide this team's fortunes this year. The discussion that this season is already over strikes me as premature when I actually looked at their next couple of months.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Icantwhisper

What poor luck? I think we had good luck, half our goals weren't even shots on net, just took a lucky bounce and went in of defender or missed play.

Check our shooting percentage, compared to last year, for example

[Icantwhisper]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Check our shooting percentage, compared to last year, for example

Shooting percentage isn't based on nor does it have anything to do with luck.
It shows skill, opposing goalies biggest concern when facing the Flames is a sore belly button the next day.
If we have more shots from low danger areas it's not a matter of luck, it's lack of creativity to create good chances.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Icantwhisper

Shooting percentage isn't based on nor does it have anything to do with luck.

Over short spans like 10 games, it absolutely does have to do with luck.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Icantwhisper

Shooting percentage isn't based on nor does it have anything to do with luck.
It shows skill, opposing goalies biggest concern when facing the Flames is a sore belly button the next day.
If we have more shots from low danger areas it's not a matter of luck, it's lack of creativity to create good chances.

Small sample sizes, random variance, deviation from the mean... you might want to study up on these things before you go around claiming that statistical data has nothing to do with luck.

[Strange Brew]

Shooting percentage on all shot attempts; Flames were last in the league previous season.
They are last again this year.

I don't think it's luck. Their shooting percentage is down from last year, I don't know how much of that decrease to attribute to luck. They might absolutely be worse at finishing this year.

Stats are from Money Puck for all situations.

[Icantwhisper]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Small sample sizes, random variance, deviation from the mean... you might want to study up on these things before you go around claiming that statistical data has nothing to do with luck.

We have one of the worst offences in the league over the last couple years, our top six is full of reclamation projects, we blame the system, travel, etc..
Maybe these guys aren't the best shooters in the league.
How many games before it isn't a small sample size?